Mad Dog

I wouldn't touch that machine with a ten foot cattle prod.

Mad Dog will be performing nightly at the Wynn...

My only team play was one time at Harrahs and the Mirage with Ed Goldstein. I played sac, and Ed played to my right. We did very well, but splitting the money was kind of weird for both of us. I would not play as part of a team. I have had discussions with pit bosses about the way I play, and about the subject of barring, and one thing I hear consistently is: "...as long as you are not playing as part of a team..." I think NBJ is just great as an individual endeavor, and do not want to risk the casino's ire with team play. I think beginners could enjoy team play without much risk, but everybody knows me where I play, and I need to respect their wishes regarding team play. In general, I try as hard as I can to get them to communicate with me about that kind of thing.

When you go pro, you are paying the mortgage and other vital bills with your bankroll. You have placed yourself into a situation where your bankroll and your net worth are the one and the same. This means that when you pay bills, you are voluntarily giving up some of your bankroll. If you are like me, that is very painful. You will say to yourself, "Hmmm. If I pay the mortgage this month, then I'll be down to this much bankroll, but if I put off paying the mortgage, then I will have less risk of ruin this month." I found myself thinking this way in the summer of 1997. I said to myself "This is nuts." and paid the mortgage. Then I decided to keep on getting consulting work. I play a lot now, but my situation is different. Another idea is that they can bar you if you are too successful. When you go pro, your job can "fire you" if you do too well. Of course if you do poorly, you don't get paid, but rather, you pay them. Going pro eats away at your time and as a result, all of your connections to people. For a pro, time is money. You have to be able to act when the conditions are good. Also, you always have people asking you how well you did. If you did well they want the money. If you didn't do well, they say discouraging things. I know that most of what I am saying is discouraging, but this profession is maddening. It is better to think about these things in advance.

Here's another. Sometimes I will play out the hand in my head using various combinations of visible cards on the table to substitute for the "unknown" cards. This is usually easiest to do head to head. In other words, I not only try to predict the value of the hole card, I try to predict the outcome of the hand, including hit cards for me and the dealer. As I do this, I am keeping a rough tally of the outcomes for hit and stand. The number of combinations can be large. It is hard to do this in a rigorous way. Don't go nuts trying, just consider using it to get a feel for your various card play moves. What you are trying to do is to approximate which move will get you the best financial outcome.

That unregistered post was mine.

So I'm walking the tightrope by playing with one pile of twelve in front of me. Most of you guys are, I assume, playing with two piles in front of you and you try to make a third pile. So I guess it is slower to raise the stakes, but you don't fall off the tightrope as often as I with my frequent return to a single pile of 12.

With money management, there really is a lot of room for changing the program to fit your risk profile. I think with my profile, I am walking a tightrope because when I raise the stakes, I have a pile of 12 again. As soon as I reach two piles of twelve, I am back down to one. I lock up some money though according to Fibonacci, and hit the table again with a pile of 12 heftier units. I will give you a narrative that explains how one wins money this way. Let's say a player was playing my way using quarters as his base unit. He would buy in for $300. Let's say the table was good, and he made a second pile of 12. Now according to a strict application of Fibonacci, he would lock up his original $300 and play again at the same stakes. Now let's imagine that he makes another pile of 12. Remember, he only has 12 units to play with, and he's got to make it to 24. Once this happens, he does not lock up anything, and proceeds to bet with double sized units, $50 bucks apiece. A total of $600 is in play. The geometric progression is already working for him. His chips are already multiplying like so many rabbits. Let's say he makes another pile of 12. Fibonacci calls for him to lock up another $300, and start playing with 12 triple sized units, $75 each. So at this point, the original buy-in of $300 is locked, and a profit of $300 is locked also. Our player has $900 in action, and $600 locked up. Let's say the lucky bastard plays wins another pile of twelve of these triple sized units. OK. At this point he has $2,400 at the table, and $300 more gets locked for a total of $900 locked. The remaining $1500 is in play at a new unit size of $125. That’s five times the original unit size of $25. Four times in a row, he has managed to take a single pile of 12 and double it. NBJ players know that this is achievable. If he fails at this point, he walks away with $900 profit. If he succeeds, he surges to a lofty new betting level. Let’s say that once again, our player has succeeded in doubling his pile of twelve. He will now be betting double black units, and locking up $600. He has $3,900 at the table, and a total of $1,500 is locked. He proceeds to play double black units. He might be tempted to walk away with the $3,900. He might ride the ride. Let’s say for example’s sake that he does try to double the $2400 in play. This guy’s got balls. Our player has won again, turning his double black pile of twelve into two double black piles of twelve. At this point he locks up $900. He has $6300 at the table, and he has $2400 of that locked up. He now increases his unit size to $325. I will accelerate the narrative with a list of the amounts at the table as our player advances to successive levels: $10,200 $16,500 $26,700 $43,200 $69,900 These numbers are getting pretty high, and the betting levels are very lofty. They probably will exceed table max, and so you must at some point stop the Fibonacci progression. Now remember, this guy is walking a tightrope. Every time he raises the stakes, he is exposed to great risk in that he could lose his pile of 12 in play, which comprises most of his cash at the table at any given time. That's the way Fibonacci works. Most of your rabbits are in there making more rabbits, while modest portion of them harvested as profit. That means if you lose the pile of 12 in play, you walk away with only the modest portion. The reason this is a good thing to do is this: Fibonacci provides for this locked up portion to experience the same geometric growth curve that the units in play experience. It is the same curve. It is just two steps behind. Your locked up amount will soon grow huge, just as the in-play amount is growing even huger. You don't know how long the ride is going to be, and so you are hammer down, heading for table max. Sometimes you want to leave the game at an arbitrary point with all your chips including the in-play chips. Sometimes you want to see how far Fibonacci will take you. Remember that Fibonacci automatically locks up money as you go. It’s a wild way to play. When things are going well, people will gather to watch. You have to do your home practice to get your hands won rate good enough to walk the Fibonacci tightrope.

My best advice is make short trips when you are feeling your best. I just spend one or two days. I play very aggressively. I realized I am playing way more aggressively than is recommended. I increase the stakes each time I make a pile of twelve. NBJ calls for something a little more forgiving. I am always right on the edge. As soon as I make a second pile of twelve, I am right back to one pile of twelve at a higher multiple of my original unit size. I think this is a matter of personal style, and NBJ is flexible on this point. It has more to do with what you deem to be acceptable risk. William Shakespeare wrote: "From this nettle, danger, we pluck this flower, safety." I think that in blackjack, acceptance of risk also brings gains that offset losses. Just like you need torque to win, I say you need some kind of geometric progression built into your playing profile. So be disciplined about buying in for a fixed, low amount, but don't be afraid to go for it with by raising the stakes. In my opinion, you must be just as disciplined about raising the stakes as you are about anything else. I am not in a casino every day. I go when I am at my best and don't stay too long.

OK, because I paid good money for that material, and if it was going to be given away, I was going to ask for my money back. HAHA

Yes, Ellis you seem to be revealing one of the secrets of NBJ. Are you going to start giving the rest away?

OK. I will try to explain the idea a little further. The main idea is that I look at a few cards preceeding the dealer hole card and a few following and mentally pair them up with the dealer's up card to see how strong the combination would be. This gives me some idea of the dealer's strength. For example if the dealer is showing a 2 and the first of the hit cards is an 8, that is a strong combination. If there are enough other strong combinations, I would bet that the dealer is strong. Like say the third base player was showing a 7 immediately preceeding the dealer hole card. That would be another strong combination, since it adds up to 9 when combined with the 2 that the dealer is showing in this example. I mentally slide these cards over to the dealer and tally strength and weakness. If there are 4 strong combinations and two weak ones, I treat the dealer as strong and thus do not bet that the dealer would break. I need pretty strong evidence of dealer weakness before I bet that the dealer will break. I find myself doing this kind of analysis at the table sometimes, and it arose from my home training. Your brain will pick its own strategies if you ask it to analyze what you could've done to win a hand that you lost. There is no better instruction than home training. Everything becomes self evident.

I was in a game recently where the dealer had a low card up, and I correctly predicted there was a low card in the hole, and yet I read the dealer as weak. Why? The up card was a two, and in that particular hand I thought the total of the dealer's hand was less than 7. I turned out to be right, and the dealer broke. Sometimes I imagine the cards preceeding and following the hole card as the value of the hole card. I mentally try each one, to see how well it goes with the up card in terms of hand strength. So rather than classifying each low card as simply low, I think about the exact value of the cards. Do you guys do that?

That's nothing! One time I bought in with one unit and walked away with one thousand units!!!! Just kidding. But I can say that when you find the right table, this thing works unreasonably well.

I would say you could charge more when you sell to them on the theory that dissemination of the NBJ information to their floor staff is beyond the scope of fair use.

I would not play every day. I would only play when I am feeling very well. I have allergies and sometimes I just don't feel great. When I do feel good, and I am free of time pressure and other distractions, I just hop on a plane and go wild. It happens whenever, but generally not at the crowded times. Schedules suck.

Well here's a tip for ya. Pack your dirty clothes in your suitcase. Then, as soon as you get to the hotel, dump it all in the hotel laundry. Then head straight for the tables. Play like a mad dog, and get comped. Then get your clean laundry back and head home. I really do this, and it works great.

Yeah man. Stay away from the Wynn. It's mine. Just kidding.

I think what Ellis is saying is that NBJ players have a devastating advantage when properly trained. Here's how you figure out how much money you need when you enter the casino. Read the NBJ manual, and do your home training with real cards. Simulate everything including betting. You will begin to learn what your abilities are, and as you train, your abilities will improve. Some players are simply going to be better than others. I think the reason for this has to do with the fears we bring with us to the table. Some people are afraid to hit even when the situation calls for it. Some players are afraid to raise the stakes. Training can help with this, but some people just can't push that big bet out, even when the situation calls for it. These fears will blunt your advantage. Know yourself through home practice. Know your limitations, and your skill level, and how much money you need to bring to the casino. My method of play is extremely aggressive in the sense that I do not back off. I demand the table produce the cash, or take my buy in. In the NBJ manual there is a spectrum of betting methods, and I only use the one that is used to exploit the best games. In this way, I use that betting method as a "shit detector." If the table is shit, I find another game. If I am winning, I stay and make a killing. Most people can't play this way because they care too much about the table buy in money. I seek good winning tables and I value time, because when I find a good table I can do very well. There is room for personal style within the context of NBJ. You will find yours.

I would like to relate an incident that occurred during a recent trip. I saw a clump of cards which was primarily deuces. There were so many goddamn deuces, it was very noticable. A few hands later, that same clump of deuces came out. The clump was virtually undisturbed. Whatever the "One-Two-Six" shuffle machine does, it allowed this same clump of cards to reappear within five hands or so of being dealt. Naturally during that round I hit like, well, a mad dog. So "RANDOM IN, RANDOM OUT" must really mean "FULLY INTACT CLUMP IN, FULLY INTACT CLUMP OUT". Maybe they have different clumping settings, like regular and extra crispy. The ones I've played against must have been set on extra crispy.

When you do finally get convinced about the value of NBJ, you should commit yourself to a training regimen. Reading the manual is only the beginning. You MUST train yourself by playing at home with real cards. You deal cards to a number of imaginary players, and then to yourself. You play the hand, and bet in the way that is taught in the NBJ manual. WHEN YOU LOSE A HAND, you look at the cards on the table and try to spot clues that would have made you decide to play the hand differently. When you see an alternative play that would have helped you, try and remember it. When you have learned what you can from the hand, pick up the cards and put them in the discard pile and then deal another hand. Do everything the way they do it in your casino, including the wash, pickup, shuffle, etc. This is the most valuable advice you will ever get on blackjack.

I am playing at the big strip casinos, and they let you play just about any bet spread you want. I did indeed read the NBJ manual. The bizarre things I am describing are not in the manual; they were developed by me to handle certain situations. Please do not paraphrase me by saying I did not read the NBJ manual. Please read my posts more carefully. I am open to you observing me in action sometime in the next month. I do not play downtown, I only play in the big name strip casinos, midweek. You can private message me with your contact info. Getting barred for a $100 win seems very odd.

The casinos know that clumped cards help them win at a much higher rate than random cards. The machines preserve clumping because the casinos want it that way.

Yes hitting 19 is extreme, and among NBJ players I am the only one that does it (that I know of). PLEASE understand that I only do this when the ratio between my high and low bets is EXTREME. Like 100 to 1. Don't let my extreme method bewilder you. The low rounds completely don't matter with a ratio like that. Nevertheless, sometimes I would hit 19 and draw the deuce, and people would go bananas, even though I only had $5 out. Then, those very same people would not be impressed at all when I would win $500 playing very conservatively on one hand because the tens had arrived. The thing to remember is that I was winning the high bets. I would goof around with the low bets all I wanted. I would also surrender when I had a 20, and the dealer was showing a 6. Why? Because a clump of tens had arrived, and I wanted to stop cards from coming out of the shoe, end the hand, and raise my bet to $500. So when I surrendered, it was tactical retreat so that I could sock it to them on the high bet. Understand? The conditions were head to head, extreme clumping etc. Please understand I did these aggressive things for a reason even if you don't understand completely what my reasoning was. In a broad sense, NBJ teaches us to react to the situation at hand. I developed this technique to handle a certain situation. It was devastatingly effective, and very flashy. A little too flashy as it turned out. So in summary, I hit hard 17 when I am certain that the dealer has me beat, and I want to take a shot at the hand. I also hit 17, 18 and 19 when I am sacrificing a hand to set things up for a high bet on the following hand. I did not read this in the NBJ manual, but the philosophy of NBJ is to do all things conducive for victory. I think my method is easily misunderstood by persons who don't understand the whole picture. Please try to understand that my bet spread was so high that it made the $5 bet negligible.

I was playing six decks against a "One-two-six" wheel type shuffle machine in Vegas. I wonder if they ever command the machine to shuffle differently. I think this would be a closely held secret. The cards are clumped. The other players say no way, since the machine purportedly shuffles continuously. But I, Mad Dog, tell you that they are clumped. It is what makes it possible for me to win. It is what makes the casino do unreasonably well against the other players. They want the cards clumped, and they are indeed clumped. This casino does not seem to sweat my action. I do not see any countermeasures. They are curious about me, and sometimes ask questions. I always answer straightforwardly and forthrightly. I think this is the best policy. Sometimes I can almost feel the deck turning good. I think maybe it has to do with the middle cards. I think that if they are clumped with the tens or the lows, then the game is not so good, but if they are clumped with each other, the game is good. I left a good game when a fifth player arrived. I have learned the hard way that I can't do well at a crowded table. Also, I have learned to switch to advantage betting when a group of players leaves the table. The clumping becomes too great to sustain the progression style of betting, but it is an easy victory with advantage betting as taught in NBJ.