Mad Dog
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Posts posted by Mad Dog
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NBJ is definitely the starting point as far as I'm concerned. As for bank roll, it depends on your skill level. You MUST practice at home with REAL CARDS and simulate your game, table entry, exit etc. Once you do that, you will be able to determine how much of a buffer you need between you and zero dollars.
Also, I don't see a lot of $5 games anymore, and when I do they are usually overcrowded. I really recommend snagging a copy of that NBJ manual. You can have loads of fun just at home tearing up your kitchen-table-casino.
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Yes Ellis I'm sure my game could use lots of refinement. I also note that my casual attitude toward losing a table buy in is an attitude that some people would not find it easy or desirable to achieve. The basic idea is "the best defense is a good offense." The most important thing in blackjack is how we bet. It is way more important than card play. I think that to play professionally one must embrace the idea that some tables are going to be lost, and to have the confidence that these losses will be recovered.
And then there's Carlos. He just NEVER loses. That guy just DEMORALIZES the rest of us mere mortals. JUST KIDDING. Carlos has his profile so refined that sometimes, if the conditions are not right, he won't sit down at all. I play more like... well... a Mad Dog. Very different strategies, but both work.
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There is no 50/50 in blackjack.
The thing about a six-deck shoe that is different from a sequence of pure 50/50 events is that there are TRENDS within a shoe and measurable PERSISTENCE even after the cards are shuffled.
Jerry Patterson's Target 21 system and Xtreme Blackjack (level 1 I believe) teach us to spot these trends by observing evidence of winning (Target 21), and taking measurements of specific phenomena related to clumping (XTreme BJ).
The basic thing about a six deck shoe is that if it is bad, you will lose your buy in quickly. This happens to me A LOT because I play very aggressively. I call this "drilling dry holes". It costs me a fixed amount of money to play at the table, and I enter it with the assumption that I'm going to "strike oil" and bet and play as though I am in a good game.
IF I AM NOT IN A GOOD GAME, I will lose quickly doing such aggressive things. I do not mind these losses. I LIKE TO LOSE QUICKLY because it gets me out of a bad situation so that I can find a good one. Drilling dry holes causes me to lose money LINEARLY OVER TIME.
Once I find a good situation, and I'm winning money, I raise the stakes aggressively according to the fibonacci sequence: 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55... Because there is PERSISTENCE, a good game will stay good for a while. Thus, I am raising my betting level according to a GEOMETRIC PROGRESSION, and locking up winnings the rate of which is also GEOMETRIC. Note that my aggressive style of play assumes that the table is good. This means that in a good situation, I am exploiting it from the moment I enter. I do this because games don't stay good forever. Each level in fibonacci is worth a lot more money than the previous one so I maximize my winnings by assuming the table is a winning table.
SO.
I have winnings which follow a GEOMETRIC curve and losses which follow a LINEAR curve. Do the math (if it pleases you to do so.) You will find that one good game pays for lots of bad ones and then some.
The moral of this story is that because of PERSISTENCE in both good and bad games, YOU MUST RAISE THE STAKES QUICKLY in a good game. If you don't you will have trouble covering your losses.
Mad Dog
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I use the NBJ 1-4-6 negative progression. I use it because it works (when combined with the other elements of NBJ.)
I have been reflecting on why it works. When we first learned NBJ we trained to excel at card play so that we could win 52 percent of our hands played. Those of us who trained by practicing with real cards succeeded. But I think we succeeded at something even better than winning at least 52 percent of our hands played.
The way things seem to work out in a "back and forth" game is that we have a very high chance of winning one bet in three. Even higher than the 52 percent win rate would account for.
In a "back and forth" game the tens are emulsified into the deck very well. Light clumping is introduced by the small number of players at the table. The shuffle "weaves" together these lightly clumped cards from several parts of the deck to produce the cards that are coming out of the shoe. If one round of cards has a low density of tens, we notice it and hit very hard. We win hands that would have been lost. Still, we do not win every one of these hands. This low round is generally synchronized with the low bet in the 1-4-6. progression.
Once this low round has occurred, some or all of the sections of the previous shoe that are being "woven" together become depleted of low cards, and the high cards start coming out. We go easy with the hits when this is happening. We win when the tens are there to break the dealer. We have an advantage of over 30% just playing basic strategy when there is a steady stream of tens to break the dealer. Of course sometimes the dealer can draw a pat hand. The point is that on this round we have a lot of money out, and we have a fantastic advantage because we can vary our card play, and we know that the tens are coming out. We do very well on double downs etc. during these rounds. We are betting 4 units on this round. The genius of 1-4-6 is that it counts cards way better than the card counters because it finds the tens and synchronizes the high bet to the round where the tens are. Of course it only works for people that have practiced their card play. Folks that haven't will lose the round they're supposed to win, and find themselves betting 6 when they should have been back down to the 1 unit bet.
The final bet in the progression is used when we lose the first two. Sometimes the low card run will be a little extra long. It is rare that we can not win one of two concecutive low rounds by hitting agressively, but it does happen. In any case, when it does happen, the tens are simply bursting to come out. We use our wily card play and win the round.
In a "back and forth" game, the tens are in there, and the shoe can't go for very long without them coming out. We're hunting tens. They are like little baby ducks crossing a clearing. We've got a big "shotgun" in the sense that we have three rounds to hit them. The mother duck (dealer) has to get them across the clearing, and can't wait very long to do it (due to the emulsification of tens throughout the shoe). Three rounds is just too long for them to stay hidden. Even while we don't see the baby ducks, we are taking blind shots during the low rounds and often hit something.
When they do appear we know how to handle them. We use the very card play variations that a card counter would use if he had a very high count.
We do well in games like this, while a card counter would do poorly because the count never really gets very high except on the local scale which we are monitoring.
1-4-6 gives us three rounds to get the cash. If we win any one of the three we are ahead. I believe that we have a devastatingly high probability of winning one of these three rounds. Way higher than you would get if you had a three tries to win a 52% shot. It may average out to something like 52% but the variance is very high because of the huge advantage we have during the high rounds.
I think that's why it works.
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Regarding the question about schedules: I think it is wrong to have a schedule. If a game is good you want to stay in it. If you have a schedule, then it can make you leave a good situation that you would otherwise exploit.
When we find the conditions for success we hit it. When those good conditions start to turn, our our own abilities are affected because we are tired, we leave. Don't play if you have somewhere else you have to be. It can affect your judgement and get you into a game you shouldn't be in, just because you're in a hurry to win. Sometimes when I have tried to force it to happen, I would lose. Now I just let it happen. The right conditions show up, and I exploit them.
Schedules are bad. Anything that makes me have an emotion is bad for my game. My brain can't do both at the same time. I need to be a clean slate when I play because blackjack demands my whole brain.
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Wow so it sounds like what we do is similar. With fibonacci, I lock up my original 12 units as soon as I have a second stack. When I make a third stack, I double up without locking anything. If I win the double size stack, I have two double size stacks, and so I lock one quarter of it, and make a triple size stack. If I win another triple size stack, I make a 5-times size stack and lock up the rest. If I win another 5-times size stack, I make an 8 size stack and lock up the rest. After the 8-size stack there's a 13 and a 21 and a 34. I have reached the 21, but not the 34 (yet.)
Sometimes I surge past my goal of making a new stack with a double down, and there are extra chips. One idea is to lock them up, but I keep them in play instead. So I only lock the minimum that fibonacci demands and I keep the rest in play to reduce my risk of ruin at the new higher betting unit.
Mad Dog
To Keith. Thanks! To Mad Dog, let's break it down to 2. First, in third base games, if I know I will be there a while, I wait till I make my first 3 stacks. So, now I have my buy in back and if all goes to hell, at least I played for free. Then I wait to make one more stack. So, we are talking my first 4 stacks. Buy in captured and a guaranteed 12 chip take home profit stack. The other 2 stacks left, I double my units for a 1-4-6. Then I make 2 more piles. Now I have another guranteed stack for home, which is actually 2 stacks plus the one before. Now I am guaranteed 3 stacks profit to take home. Now I go quadruple for a 1-4-6. Say I started at black. Now I play with $400 base of 12 units. So, still a 1-4-6, which is now, $400-$1,600-$2,400. I keep going with that pattern.Now, for first base or advantage betting or head to head advantage betting, I might go $100 low bets (lets say table min is $100) and $1,000 for high bets, even though table max might be $5,000. I do this to see if I can just play high bets flat or if that game it's better to use a neg prog on high bets only. This way I can go $1,000-$3,000-$5,000.
If some games at third or advantage play I consistantly see I win like 5, 6 or more hands in a row, and say on the high bet, I go $1,000, again at $1,000, and again at $1,000, if keep winning, then I go $2,000, $3,000, $4,000 and then table max of $5,000 and keep at table max till lose. In this situation, I don't need to go by the number of high rounds in a row because in this game I might be noticing that I win many hands in a row, in high or low rounds. It might be because dealer has no bias and I developed a player bias or dealer breaks like crazy or I out perform her in low runs and low rounds or I am mostly getting Class A hands and/or dealer is mostly getting Class B hands.
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I use the NBJ 1-4-6 negative progression. I use it because it works (when combined with the other elements of NBJ.)
I have been reflecting on why it works. When we first learned NBJ we trained to excel at card play so that we could win 52 percent of our hands played. Those of us who trained by practicing with real cards succeeded. But I think we succeeded at something even better than winning at least 52 percent of our hands played.
The way things seem to work out in a "back and forth" game is that we have a very high chance of winning one bet in three. Even higher than the 52 percent win rate would account for.
In a "back and forth" game the tens are emulsified into the deck very well. Light clumping is introduced by the small number of players at the table. The shuffle "weaves" together these lightly clumped cards from several parts of the deck to produce the cards that are coming out of the shoe. If one round of cards has a low density of tens, we notice it and hit very hard. We win hands that would have been lost. Still, we do not win every one of these hands. This low round is generally synchronized with the low bet in the 1-4-6. progression.
Once this low round has occurred, some or all of the sections of the previous shoe that are being "woven" together become depleted of low cards, and the high cards start coming out. We go easy with the hits when this is happening. We win when the tens are there to break the dealer. We have an advantage of over 30% just playing basic strategy when there is a steady stream of tens to break the dealer. Of course sometimes the dealer can draw a pat hand. The point is that on this round we have a lot of money out, and we have a fantastic advantage because we can vary our card play, and we know that the tens are coming out. We do very well on double downs etc. during these rounds. We are betting 4 units on this round. The genius of 1-4-6 is that it counts cards way better than the card counters because it finds the tens and synchronizes the high bet to the round where the tens are. Of course it only works for people that have practiced their card play. Folks that haven't will lose the round they're supposed to win, and find themselves betting 6 when they should have been back down to the 1 unit bet.
The final bet in the progression is used when we lose the first two. Sometimes the low card run will be a little extra long. It is rare that we can not win one of two concecutive low rounds by hitting agressively, but it does happen. In any case, when it does happen, the tens are simply bursting to come out. We use our wily card play and win the round.
In a "back and forth" game, the tens are in there, and the shoe can't go for very long without them coming out. We're hunting tens. They are like little baby ducks crossing a clearing. We've got a big "shotgun" in the sense that we have three rounds to hit them. The mother duck (dealer) has to get them across the clearing, and can't wait very long to do it (due to the emulsification of tens throughout the shoe). Three rounds is just too long for them to stay hidden. Even while we don't see the baby ducks, we are taking blind shots during the low rounds and often hit something.
When they do appear we know how to handle them. We use the very card play variations that a card counter would use if he had a very high count.
We do well in games like this, while a card counter would do poorly because the count never really gets very high except on the local scale which we are monitoring.
1-4-6 gives us three rounds to get the cash. If we win any one of the three we are ahead. I believe that we have a devastatingly high probability of winning one of these three rounds. Way higher than you would get if you had a three tries to win a 52% shot. It may average out to something like 52% but the variance is very high because of the huge advantage we have during the high rounds.
I think that's why it works.
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My thing is that I try to play when I'm in tip top shape. What we do with NBJ requires us to handle lots of information, notice things that happen and react to them. I just can't do it very well when I'm tired or in any way nervous or gorked out, under pressure for my time, etc.
My strategy for when I play is that I only do it when I'm in top shape. I usually do not plan my trips to Vegas. I play when I feel good, and when I estimate that the conditions will be good. When these two things are aligned, I hop on a plane to Vegas. I get a room and use it as my base to rest and regroup. I have a fixed buy in and I select a table that has a low number of players, but is showing some winning activity. I buy in and play 1-4-6 right off the bat. In other words, I don't worry about testing the water. I buy in for an amount of money that isn't very meaningful to me. If I lose, it does not matter too much. It is much like drilling for oil. I sink a few dry holes and eventually I find a table that I can beat. I ride the fibonacci wave as high as it'll go. I bail out when I lose the pile of twelve in play. Fibonacci gets me out with locked up money.
As for a stop win, I don't use one. I do try to leave Vegas within a day or two, as I tend to get tired.
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... for the new forum.
Now let's get started. I want to know how you raise the stakes Carlos. I use fibonacci. What do you use?
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If you want proof that the cards are clumped, observe a table that is full, and compare the actual dealer break ratio to the theoretical dealer break ratio (according to theoretical random cards the dealer should break aproximately once in 3.5 hands.)
Understand that you are talking to people who really know how to win against present casino conditions, and when you say "scam" you are calling us liars. I would prefer you didn't do that. If you don't want to pay for the system (NBJ and WCB) then don't, but you will need training to win against present day casino conditions.
Best of luck whatever you decide.
Mad Dog
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Hey do your thing man. I'm not going to try to convince you. Good luck with that card counting thing.
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It'd probably be easier to believe all this if you could see a live demonstration in a real casino. If you're in Vegas ever, I'll do a demo for you.
Some guy from Atlanta told me last week "YOU ARE THE BEST BLACKJACK PLAYER I HAVE EVER SEEN! AND I'VE BEEN PLAYING FOR FORTY YEARS!"
So, you need to do two things: buy NBJ, and hang out with winners. We can show you how to practice at home, and how to "go for the jugular". Most players don't do the jugular thing.
I have no idea what conditions you face in your home casino. How crowded is it? Can you find games with 4 or fewer players?
Mad Dog
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Hey Carlos,
The forum would be a great idea, but if no one else is interested, we'll just have our own private email forum. BTW, who are the other heavy hitters that are actively playing right now? Are we it?
Mad Dog
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jayjayz,
You seriously need to hang with some people that know what they're doing. That shuffle machine is a wonderful thing if you know how to play against it. The casino did you a favor when they made it impossible to count cards.
Mad Dog
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I have been doing something when I play blackjack that some of you will think is crazy and here it is:
I tip the dealers 10% of my winnings at the end of a session.
Crazy I know. That's why they call me Mad Dog.
I struck up a conversation with the pit staff and it turns out that they get a share of the dealer tips when they are distributed.
I win pretty consistently and my main worry is not about how to win but about how to not get barred, SO tipping at ten percent keeps them happy (I hope).
I have been getting a lot of deference since I started doing it. If I want to sit at a table and bet under the minimum, they let me do it sometimes. I also palm a C note when I shake hands with the casino host. I tip the cashier too. Instead of getting heat, I get smiles when I win. I tip the cocktail waitress a green chip when she brings me a soda. They love me. They do table recon for me and bring me stuff other than cocktails (once I needed some tylenol and they brought me some even though there's a rule against it.)
I also ask the pit staff to let me know if I need to go easy. They never have yet mentioned it but why push it past what they're comfortable with? Why not keep a good thing going?
I'm interested to hear if anyone else has experimented with XTreme tipping.
I think it says a lot about NBJ: it produces such good results that we can do this kind of thing.
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I lost track of Ed in the mid 90s. I have no idea where he disappeared to.
The most important thing Ed taught me was how to train. At Ed's house in Tucson, he had a fold-up card table with felt stapled to it. He had a couple dozen six deck "shoes" which where bound together with rubber bands. He sat there all day and dealt cards to himself while the TV provided background noise. He was an incredible instinctive card player and bettor. He really was phenomenal.
When Ed lost a hand during his practice session, he would stop and look at the table to see if there was anything on that table that would suggest making the correct move. If there was, then he would burn that into his brain, and keep going. All that practice produced a natural instinct for card play. Birds know how to fly; fish know how to swim. Ed knew how to play his hand.
Once I saw him with a hard twelve against a dealer ten. He stopped the game and took his time. He usually made his decisions very quickly but this time he was frozen. The tension at the table was building, but Ed had tuned that out. The only thing Ed saw was the cards. Finally he smiled and waved his hand to signal he wanted to stay. The dealer turned it, showed a two in the hole, and immediately broke with another ten. I don't know what was going through Ed's mind, but I did learn to stop the game when I wanted to think my move over.
Ed ONLY played third base. He had no interest in anything else, although once I played sac at third base with him at my right just to try it out.
One other remarkable thing about Ed was that he only brought two hundred bucks to the casino. He always won, except once that I know of. He always left when he reached his stop win.
Ed played during the day. I asked him if that's when the cards were better. He didn't answer my question except by saying "That's when I'M better."
That's it for now. Good luck from Mad Dog.
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I am writing to introduce myself to the board.
I am a long time NBJ player. I was in the first NBJ class taught by E Clifton Davis in 1991. I was also personally trained by Ed Goldstein, a highly skilled NBJ player who was active in the 90s.
I want to say here and now that NBJ rocks. Ellis, I really must say, you are the man!
Mad Dog
Seminar Exhibition!
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
I'm game.
You guys do realize there's risk in this endeavor. I could dig a series of dry holes in front of the whole crowd.