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kingstar

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Posts posted by kingstar

  3. MDB+SAP Questions

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    Would like to ask when using SAP count as an indicator for MDB play, which way is more effective: to use the MC event or to use the LC event?

    I was thinking to use MC event. For example:

    1. if SAP count for 1s is highest, i will play 3zz goes to 4zz but not 3zz stays 3zz

    2. if SAP count for 2s is highest, i will play 2s stays 2s and 3s stays 3s, but neither 2s goes to 3s nor 3s goes to 4s

    3. if SAP count for 3s is highest, i play both 2s goes to 3s and 3s stays 3s, but neither 2s stays 2s nor 3s goes to 4s

  7. Show us the proof!

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    BTW guys, Kingstar did in fact join the NOR private forum. Maybe you can get him to come back here and give you a REAL idea of what goes on there. But he'll be pretty busy for a while. There is a LOT to learn.

    Master Ellis,

    You are right. I have been quite busy for the past few days. I've read many good post in the private forum and think about how i can apply those method into my play while playing the real shoes posted by other members. It has been a great learning experience.

    For those guys who are serious about playing baccarat, i will say:

    Joining the private forum is just the first step, if you want to really improve your play, you must spend time to learn those method or system designed by Ellis. And practise a lot before entering casino to beat it

    Regards,

    Kevin

  8. It's been a year

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    After joining the private forum for less than 2 weeks, i am slowly building up the system that meet my risk tolerant level through reading those valuable post by our master Ellis and other members. In this 2 weeks, i learned more than what i have learned from the public forum for the post 10 months since i first joined BTC (although for the first few month, i was still in doubt that can i really beat casino?).

    I wish that one year later, i can also start a thread like MVSeahog to say that i have win some money as compared to one year ago

    Regards,

    Kevin

  9. MDB shoe start rules....

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    Well, for PBPB I'm thinking S4 at least to start. Both S1 and S4 love 1's but S4 bets less and gets on long ST runs sooner. They both bet the same (S1 and S4) starting out. Then we see what 2s are doing to decide the issue.

    Initially i don't quite understand why Ellis recommend S4 for PBPB. Now after going through some thinking, i think i might get why Ellis say so.

    Just to share my thought here (all comment are welcome): We start S4 for PBPB, once we see the first confirmed 2s or 3s, we can switch to normal S1 (if 1s is still the highest). This way it reduce the loss caused by 3s and 4s although it get less profit for the first 2s, play this way it is of much less risk.

    Regards,

    Kevin

  12. MDB Singapore members --- This is your thread

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    Correct Kevin, 4's occur once every 32 hands but that's not really the question. We win on 4 or mores. So the correct question is how often do 4+s occur?

    Every 16 plays on average.

    But correct, we need to think twice before betting on an event that only occurs once every 16 hands. We can win the game W/O taking such big risks.

    While losing a 3 bet prog is the worst thing that can happen to you, the second worst is not having enough shoe left to complete a prog.

    Some have suggested completing a prog in the next shoe. That is very risky business because a new shoe resets all of the probabilities. Best to simply avoid betting on 4 or mores altogether.

    Hi Ellis,

    Thanks for the correction. I will follow your suggestion to avoid betting on 4 or more altogether.

  15. Baccarat shoes from touch games in New Zealand

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    Hi Ellis

    As requested here are some shoes from Baccarat touch games from New Zealand

    I have not identified the triggers as I am still playing the original MDB+

    rules (with 6 bets), and I do not want to confuse anyone.

    Shoe: A

    B111324431

    P111211131125

    P131143512

    B4151

    Shoe: B

    B2221113133

    B32422311

    B664212

    B154

    Shoe: C

    P133421123

    B11114121133

    P3113213141

    P1114

    Shoe: D

    B7142132

    P122122122131

    P1131131151111

    B11211

    Shoe: E

    B1111513413

    B11111614121

    P1311133221

    P2111333

    Shoe: F

    B4211211242

    B311313211121

    B111113311111112

    P15411

    Shoe: G

    B122115121113

    B12111522141

    P11221212321

    B41222

    I am interested to know what you think of these

    Shoe D has multiple 2's predominant

    regards

    Paul

    Hi Paul,

    For me, if i see 2 4s+ event appears in the very beginning of a game (which mean under pure random case, there should be 8 2s and 4 3s followed it). I will expect that there will be quite many 2s coming out later. So the best is to apply 3 2s event then bet on next 2s go to 3s (which is same as use 3 2s event to bet the next 1s stay 1). Although you may lose the some opportunity, but you will reduce the risk. Only after 2s events normalize (for example, there is in total 4 2s event, i may consider to use back 2 2s event then bet on next 2s go to 3s)

    Regards,

    Kevin

  16. Level Up Tips

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    Thanks man appreciate the comment. I'm still up 4k so the loss wasn't everything. I stick to my stop loss.

    I've been playing for a while but this is the first time trying this level up plan. Just not sure if I should play again at $100 or level back down and rebuild...

    In that case, i think you are doing well. You should believe that you are doing with the correct system (already proved by your previous plays). and stick to your initial plan. In worst case, you lose nothing.

  17. Level Up Tips

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    So after winning countless shoes and well above the "required" next level up in the ladder, I decide to level up to $100 min. And. I lost. Terrible feeling after doing SO well for so long.

    Bad luck I guess. I think I may have waited too long to level up. Do you think it's better to level up quickly or to build up a few buy ins at a certain level? Anyone have any suggestions?

    Hi ztomsk,

    So sad to hear that you have done so well for a long period but suddenly encounter one big lost. I am just a new member so i don't think i can give any useful suggestion.

    But based on my experience in forex, the win rate of you trade is not the most important winning factor, but the risk that you take to win certain profit matters most (i.e, the stop loss). So if you can consistently control your stop loss (do not take more risk after you see a high win rate), i don't think you can encounter big loss. As i remember Ellis did said he did not bet big using his own money, but he will bet big with casino money.

    Regards,

    Kevin

  18. MDB Singapore members --- This is your thread

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    Correct and well said. But see, I told you. Kevin will be a great student! Look at the questions he is already asking after just a few days on the forum.

    Hi Ellis,

    Thanks for your encouragement, It makes me to fill up with full energy. Actually i was trying to capture those useful information in the forum and try to digest in the past few days. This is a quite painful process as it is actually not easy to understand some of the system. But this learning process benefit me a lot now. I am still having a lot to learn. Although i have understand MDB+ rule by reading your post, i believe there is still a lot i need to find out (which will lead me to register for MDB+ members later to learn from you on the math fundamental of those system you designed, and why they can work). Anyway, i still need to prove myself first in casino before starting the next step. I will try my first MDB play in Macau in 2 weeks time. Before that, still have to learn hard

    Regards,

    Kevin

  19. MDB Singapore members --- This is your thread

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    I don't play the 5ZZ as you describe. Sure it may work in any given shoe, but I want to limit to patterns that will have time to repeat a few more times in a shoe. A 5ZZ, just like a straight run of 5, may not give me up to three more betting opportunities in the shoe. For the same reason, I usually pass on a 4 (run or ZZ) after about hand 50 or so.

    We'll said, way2fast.

    From what you said, I can see that you are very good at math. Your idea to pass on 4 (run or zz) after about hand 50 is great. Just my guessing (not sure correct or not), as 4s event happens every 32 play, after about 50 hands, if we failed the 1st bet, we are not likely to see a 4s again in the remaining play of the shoe. The core of the MDB+ Is based on probability on random shoes, we risk a maximum 3 tries to bet that 5 kinds of a event won't happen (a very low happening rate).

    So for 3s stay 3s, 3s to 4s, or 4s to 5s, actually we should define that after certain plays, we will pass on betting ( not because that we will lose, but because we only have a very low chance to see it happen)

    I think way2fast's idea can be even written into the MDB+ rule

    Regards,

    Kevin

  20. MDB Singapore members --- This is your thread

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    I have received a couple PM's asking how to play MDB+ on mackem's shoes, so here is an example for one of the games he posted. I initially just went through his list and in a few minutes could identify the MDB+ signals and whether each one won or not. For the attached shoe, i wrote out all the plays and marked the signals just like i would in a casino. I chose this shoe because it has several signals, both for streaks and ZZs. This shoe had 8 signals, and each one of them won for a 42% PA.

    Hi way2fast,

    Thanks for posting you MDB+ Play. I learned a lot for your play

    Do you consider the following when playing MDB+ (since Ellis said there are as many zz runs as straight runs) :

    1. After two triple 1's bet the next double 1's stays double? If we apply that, we will be able to add one Win bet of Banker at play 28

    2. After two triple 1's bet the next triple 1's goes to 4 1's? If we apply that, we will be able to add one Lose bet of Player at play 28

    Or when there are so many 1's (most likely 1's will be highest), we should use MDB rule S1 to play

    Best Regards,

    Kevin

  22. We need an MDB Simulator/Analyzer?

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    Dear All,

    I am ready for my first posting. Here is the program and please read this entire posting before use. This is not yet a fully completed version. I am saving the final combined betting until after enough members have tried out this first version MDB Auto Betting Program with modification and suggestions necessary. Then my wish is to perform a poll of opinions on how should we combine our betting of all different Progs (S1,S23,S4+ and SAP or more to be added) into one straight and robust winning prog. Please try out the program and let me know how you like it and or have it modify to perfect it.

    Programming Notes:

    Programming conventions (Important, must follow to understand how program place bets):

    1. When a betting entry is MINUS (-) betting is on BANKER.

    2. When a betting entry is PLUS (+) betting is on PLAYER.

    3. If a bet wins highlight is RED, if a bet lose highlight is BLUE.

    4. When you copy and paste any data into Column B, please make sure you paste it with the “Paste Value” option.

    Program Prog selection Switches:

    1. At Columnn Y Row 2, there is a program switch set up highlighted with RED fill. You may set this value for varies program play option:

    (a) Switch value = 1: Only S1 and SAP will play

    (B) Switch value = 2: Only S23 and SAP will play

    © Switch value = 4: Only S4+ and SAP will play

    (d) Switch value = 7: Auto switch between S1, s23 and s4+ with SAP played

    (e) Switch value = 8: Only SAP will play

    (f) Switch value = 9: All Progs S1, S23, S4+ and SAP will play

    Programming defaults:

    1. SAP count does not include first event.

    2. Betting starts as soon as play #3 for all S1, S23 and S4+.

    3. SAP does not start betting until after 6 plays.

    4. SAP posting is immediate as soon as 4s or plus is confirmed. This means 4s+ event will establish and enter into SAP table as soon as 4s emerges.

    5. First version of program will bet 5s+ stays on 1st appearance. Subsequent betting will rely on previous streak length. All 7s or above continue to 1 lose.

    Programming Definitions:

    1. When system switches to S23, there will be at least 2 bets played before any further switching. This is because S23 is really designed as a 2 or more bets system.

    2. 1s high means SAP1 > max(SAP2,SAP3,SAP4) – S4M3 is played with SW=4.

    3. 1s becomes high means [(current SAP1 > last SAP1) and (SAP1 = max(SAP2,SAP3,SAP4)] –> S1 is played with SW=1.

    4. 2s high means SAP2 > max(SAP1,SAP3,SAP4) –> S23 is played with SW=2.

    5. 2s becomes high means [(current SAP2 > last SAP2) and (SAP2 = max(SAP1,SAP3,SAP4)] –> S23 is played with SW=2.

    6. 3s high means SAP3 > max(SAP1,SAP2,SAP4) –> S23 is played with SW=2.

    7. 3s becomes high means [(current SAP3 > last SAP3) and (SAP3 = max(SAP1,SAP2,SAP4)] –> S23 is played with SW=2.

    8. Ellis Notes – Once S23, mode 2 or 2 plays must be made before any further system switching is allowed. Meaning SAP1 has not bumped up by 2 and at the same time SAP4 has not been increased.

    9. 4s high means SAP3 > max(SAP1,SAP2,SAP3) – S4+ is played with SW=4.

    10. 4s becomes high means AND [OR((current SAP4 > last SAP4),cSAP>=4),(SAP4 = max(SAP1,SAP2,SAP3)] –> S4+ is played with SW=4.

    11. When 1s and 2s are tied –> S1 is played with SW=1.

    12. When 1s and 3s are tied –> S1 is played with SW=1.

    13. When 2s and 3s are tied with none of them being zero –> S23 is played with SW=2.

    14. When 1s and 4s+ are tied -> S4+ is played with SW=4.

    15. When 3s and 4s+ are tied -> S4+ is played with SW=4.

    So please play with it and have fun!

    Very Best Regards,

    AYS

    [ATTACH]3028[/ATTACH]

    Hi AYS,

    I want to thank you for providing this excel simulation file. It can help me to understand MDB in an easier way.

    Btw, have you already came up with a version 2?

    Best Regards,

    Kevin

  24. Help needed in understanding the NOR manual

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    Hi Ellis,

    I got two new questions after reading the NOR manual again. In page 15 of NOR manual, it is stated that:

    But, with OTB4L you lose to both to both Straight AND ZZ runs so both run types must be considered separately and you must go OTR on Both run types after either 2 or 3 losing bets against both run types

    But recognize that you can easily be in one Mode for one run type and the other Mode for the other run type

    So if my system is OTB4L and i was to use SAP count to decide which mode to use, i would need to keep track of both the count of straight run (4s vs 5s) as well as the count of zz run (4s vs 5s)?

    For example, if currently there is only one straight run 5s and one zz run 4s, when i lose 2 bets to 4 in a row, i will use mode 2 to bet straight OTR.

    Then later when i lose 2 bets to a zz run of 4s, i will use mode 3 and need continue bet one more time OTB4L, if i lose the third bet, then i will bet zz OTR, is that correct?

    ==================================================================================================

    Updated on 7 Nov 2014: I figured out that the answer to my question is Yes. We need to keep track of both the count of straight run (4s vs 5s) as well as the count of zz run (4s vs 5s)

    Best Regards,

    Kevin

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