Bobby
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Posts posted by Bobby
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Thanks for the reply Ellis. Would appreciate seeing some MDB+ shoes with play by plays to visualize it better. How about the 4 shoes gman just posted on the "Vegas Shoes 6/20 to 6/25" thread? Thanks.
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Gman, thanks for posting your shoes. Could you please post the same 4 shoes you just put up with the MDB+ system to compare? Thanks.
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Hi Ellis,
Had a few questions about MDB+
Do we not even need to keep a SAP count and just wait for the second 2, second 3 or second 4+ to occur to begin betting?
You said they don't have to be consecutive so if we had hands come out for example P2,1,4,3,2 we would then start to bet the next 2 will go to a 3?
Also I understand betting that there won't be five 2's without a 3, but when you have two 3's how do you decide there won't be five 3's without a 2 or a 4+? And the same goes for 4+. When you have two 4+'s, do you bet for a 2 or a 3 to come up?
Could you please post a few more sample shoes with play by plays for MDB+. Would really help. Thanks.
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Ellis, thanks for posting the shoe with play by plays. Hope to see more.
I understand how the "0" bet is mechanical and tells you exactly how to play the SP, but I'm still not sure of the "mechanical" decision making when it comes to switching systems in relation to the SAP counts. Do you switch right away when one count goes higher then another? If the 1's and 2's have a high SAP count we are playing S40. So when the 3 SAP count passes the 1 and 2's count would we switch right away on the next hand to OTB4L? The switching seems more of a subjective rather then a mechanical decision. Can you please give us some "mechanical" rules for switching such as the "0" bet for the SP? Thanks.
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Ellis, yes you said you were going to post gman's shoe with play by plays. Thanks.
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way2fast, do you have any Vegas shoes we could play? I'd like to play some we KNOW are preshuffled. All I would need is our short hand format.
Ellis, if you need Vegas shoes you can go to the first post of Norm's thread "60 shoes from may 6 vegas trip". There is a PDF with all 60 shoes.
RIP Norm
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Ellis,
Can you please post some shoes with play by plays using SAP/+5 showing at what point do we choose a +5 system to use? When and why we switch and how we handle the primary or secondary progression in the process of switching? Are there specific "triggers" for each system to switch in a shoe? If so, please explain.
Your very first post when you started the introduction to +5 thread you said the most important thing for this thread was that you were going to post shoes with play by plays because it's the best way to learn and explain things. Please don't forget that. Thanks.
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Ok, Ellis can you please post more shoes with play by plays, especially ones showing how to deal with "runs"? Thanks.
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I thought +5 method was suppose to be "no table selection"?
If we have to wait mid shoe to see which of the three systems to play then why not play NOR+? That's the same thing we do for NOR to determine which system to play. Plus I thought pre-shuffled cards are all over the place or "random" so once you see one type of system to play, as soon as you start that system the shoe can change to a different type of "bias" Then what?
Confused about what "no table selection" means. Ellis please explain.
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Thanks for the reply Ellis. I understand now that it's "mechanical" according to the zero bet and different every time. But I'm still not sure how we choose which of the three +5 systems to play at the start of a shoe at hand #2? When I sit at a table and the cards are about to be dealt at the start of a shoe, what makes me play bas40, bas40m1 or baotb4l?
Hmm, lot's of questions - GoodLet's take "mechanical" play first.
Correct, I said all mechanical systems break even, long term.
Here we are talking purely mechanical systems such as the most common TB4L or TBL wherein you do the same thing regardless of what the shoe does.
Here, the known culprit is 2s. For instance TB4L losses every single bet to a TT run.
With normal 2s, TB4L breaks even. High 2s it loses. Low 2s it wins. No decisions.
The same with S40:
Now the culprit is 3s and we have to decide whether to bet ON or AGAINST 3s. That is why NOR has modes.
With NOR, we are taking 3 break even mechanical systems and making them win by matching them each to their favorite shoe type and then selecting the best mode for the shoe at hand. We can do this because regular cards often produce reliable biases. So the trick of it is following the bias. THAT is what gets you playing the right system in the right mode. BUT, that also causes lot's of decision making: Which system? Which mode? And how long do we stay on runs? Any mistake on any decision can cause you to lose. Changing biases can also cause you to lose.
F also has culprits. F2 the culprit is 2s on the weak side. F3 the culprit is 3s on the weak side. So again, a decision.
Now lets compare that to BaS40. The way Ann and I played it, it was not purely mechanical. We had to decide whether to bet ON or AGAINST 3s.
3s was the culprit. A 0 bet had simply not occurred to us. Our 6 bet prog was 121235.
Now lets compare all that to the +5 version of BaS40: Our 6 bet prog is now 120123.
First, we don't have a simple culprit like 2s or 3s or 4s.
We have one of two culprits: either 4 3s W/O a 4+ or 4 4+s W/O a 3. Either way, our culprit is FAR harder to hit than a simple culprit of 2s or 3s or 4s. It is darn near impossible to hit our culprit. Because instead of being able to hit our culprit in only 2 or 3 or 4 plays. It takes a minimum of 12 plays going exactly wrong to beat us in the one case and a minimum of 16 plays in the other case. Darn near impossible. See that?
Then we totally mechanized the decision making process by adding the 0 bet. If the 0 wins we do one thing. If it loses we do a completely different thing.
See, it is not mechanical because we don't play every shoe the same way. But instead of US making the decision which way to go, we let the 0 bet make the decision for us. Therefore it plays purely mechanical to us even though we are not playing all shoes the same way. See the difference?
Why do we have 3 systems? Again: Perhaps I wasn't clear the first time.
Mostly because we will not always be playing preshuffled cards. We want the +5 strategy to cover ANY shoe we decide to play whether preshuffled, regular or on line. I do NOT want to make NOR a prerecquisite of +5. Remember my saying that before? I want +5 to be stand alone.
But also because we are not always playing against NEW preshuffled cards. Sometimes the cards are several shoes old and biases are beginning to appear. Once cards are several shoes old it no longer matters how they started out. We will see streaky shoes and choppy shoes and neutral shoes. An example is the 18iar ZZ I got dealt at Sands B with older preshuffled cards.
Even with preshuffled cards, casinos will throw in a ringer now and then. For instance as soon as they see no one at a given table is betting on runs, they will throw in a shoe full of runs. Remember, the bundles are numbered. That is WHY they are numbered.
Next, note that while 2s is normally a devastating culprit to S40M1, the +5 version eliminates 2s as a culprit. The shoe posted has 8 2s - no problem.
The same is true of BaS40. 3s is no longer a culprit.
The only culprit of each is virtually impossible to hit.
Random: Sometimes I interchanged the term "random" with "preshuffled" cards. I shouldn't do that because preshuffled is not purely random. I should always call preshuffled "fixed". Yes, they are usually closer to random because they usually don't sustain biases. But, in general, we can expect preshuffled, on average, to be high in all events up to 6s and low in 7+s. That is what is influencing our system design. That is why we make the culprit 7s or 8s while favoring 1s thru 6s.
Now, to demonstrate that system selection is not nearly as important with +5 as it is with NOR, I'll play the same exact shoe, except I'll play it BaS40. You'll see it does almost as well and gets to +5 by play 31.
However Keith just called, 6:30AM, and asked me to start a new thread so he can see who can see it vs who can't to help him get the new forum private to the right members.
So I'll post the S40 shoe on a new S40 thread.
BTW, thanks for sending me your user names. I'll work on that list later today and if I'm still missing anybody I'll let you know.
Except, now each of the 3 +5 systems has another culprit. It is either a late 7 or a late 8 depending on how long we are staying on runs. That is why, if we have been seeing normal or high 7+s, we stay on all runs until we lose. And, of course, long runs of 7+ are only a problem if they strike before we get to +5. Once we hit +5 the first time we are guaranteed winners of at least +4. So, while 7+s are normally low with preshuffled cards, they wo't always be.
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Ellis, I didn't get a reply the first time so I'll ask again.
I Have a few questions about +5.
When talking about +5 you mention "mechanical play" and playing "purely mathematically". I thought mechanical play and mathematics doesn't win or only breaks even at best?
Also you say with +5 we don't need to do table selection. Then why are there three (bas4o, baotb4l, bas40m1)+5 systems? If there is no table selection then can't we go to any table and sit down and just play one system? If we have to choose between the 3 systems then we must be looking for a bias that fits that particular system aren't we? How and why would you play one system over the other if there is no need for table selection? Thank you.
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Hi Ellis,
Thanks for posting your shoe with explanations. Have a few questions about +5.
When talking about +5 you mention "mechanical play" and playing "purely mathematically". I thought mechanical play and mathematics doesn't win or only breaks even at best?
Also you say with +5 we don't need to do table selection. Then why are there three (bas4o, baotb4l, bas40m1)+5 systems? If there is no table selection then can't we go to any table and sit down and just play one system? If we have to choose between the 3 systems then we must be looking for a bias that fits that particular system aren't we? How and why would you play one system over the other if there is no need for table selection? Thank you.
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Ellis,
You are saying we have to change to a purely mathematical approach but I thought "pure mathematics" doesn't beat the game or house edge?
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Ellis, I'm confused, you say you don't agree with flat betting but you're saying to change the primary prog from 1,2 to 1,1. Isn't that flat betting?
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Hi Kramden,
From just looking at the board of what you are showing and mostly seeing 2iar events I would say the simple answer is start with OTB4L. That's the simple answer, now what's the "complex" answer
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Newbacplayer, why do you not have an OO/TT column on your score card? Do you not track those results?
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Yes Johnny, I've been asking nicely for Ellis to please post play by play score cards since I joined the forum in Dec. I know I sound like a broken record with that but it's the only way I can fully comprehend how to play. I know I'm not the only one and there have been others asking also but still no score cards. There was a prior post by Ellis where he was trying to explain something and he said " I don't if you guys can see numbers in your head like I can but..." well the answer to that is some of us can't see the numbers in our head like he can so this is why myself and others keep asking him to post those numbers on score cards. It's frustrating but like the broken record I'll keep asking.
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I agree. Along with rules and manuals I think sample score cards with a shoe play by play for EACH system should be posted. Would make teaching for Ellis easier (less headache for him) and learning for us easier to understand as well. It's the one major thing missing from this forum. Lol even my old math and science text books from high school had many examples and samples of all the different equations and formulas in the back pages with "play by play".
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Hi Glenn,
Thanks for posting a score card. Just wanted to ask about hand #15. Should that bet be on column 3 instead of the O column since column 3's count is a zero and the O column that you picked is at a -1 count?
Could you please also post another score card with a full shoe or most of a shoe just to see how it would play out? Thanks again.
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Wow I wish I had the passion and knowledge of 4D that CdnChamer has.
I think there is a lot of frustration with the whole 4D thing and how it turned out. Including Ellis. When I was contemplating joining this forum I was told that the 4D is this amazing way to play and you don't have to do table selection and on average you win more units then NOR and other very positive things. What I wasn't told was that it's still being tested and that the rules are not complete and how difficult it can be to play.
In spite of this I don't regret joining the forum.
Having said that as to CdnChamer's point I don't think 4D should be mentioned with the "million dollar" system as to not invoke more frustration and confusion.
Ellis you mentioned earlier about starting a thread for the "million dollar" system and posting the rules. Can you please let us know when this will be? And to avoid the frustration and confusion such as with the 4D I hope it is the complete up to date rules along with a sample score card with play by play.
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Lol just when I thought I was getting 4D everything changes. Ok since 4D is very difficult, Ellis can you please post the "complete" rules for the +5 system (prog within prog, net betting...etc) along with a few shoes with play by plays? Much appreciated. Thanks.
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Bobby, how many times do I have to say it. I'm working on it. I have to have complete rules first. Do you think we just pull them off a shelf someplace? Do you not read any of my posts?
Ellis, I have read your posts. And I've also read other members posts also asking for sample score cards. Just thought you could post a shoe with the rules you do have. Ok, I'll guess we'll have to wait for "complete" rules then. Thanks.
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So I guess that's a NO to posting a filled out 4D score card
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I'm sorry to hear about the hacking of the site. Must have happened just before I joined.
Agreed Harrican, I would love to see as many shoes as possible with play by plays to study and learn but I think we'd be happy with a few score cards to start out with. It seems that the 4D rules are being updated everyday so what I would suggest is Ellis or Keith post the most up to date rules along with a shoe or two with the play by play that explains all the different scenarios and the rules as the shoe is going along. I think it's a reasonable request.
Vegas Seminar
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
Thanks again Ellis but I was asking about seeing some sample MDB+ shoes?