Baccman
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Posts posted by Baccman
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SAP is good but like PJ said you just need to be consistent and when MC starts to fail its time to stop and thats after 2nd bet lost. Also cards dont know is thet beginning of the shoe or middle, so why would something that was MC at the the beginning of the shoe continue through the whole shoe, when it starts to change maybe it is next new MC event just like last was at the beginning of the shoe...also Ellis said many times that Norm played SAP and RSAP.... and maybe Norm saw that something starts to fail other event will catch up.
Bacc
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Have question about overall SAP and recent SAP events. If we have 3s like MC and then we get section of 2113121. 3s are still MC but we have 2 2s in the last 11 play. Are 2s now new MC because of recent history or we are looking overall SAP? This 11 plays are not so bad OT section, but no strong OT trigger in it. Maybe it will go to strong OT mode but i am interested will it become 2s dominant or it will continue with 3s
Thank you
Bacc
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What i really think is that there is no mechanical trigger that will give us better then 50% hit rate. To get better then 50% on any event you need to support it with some recent history. Just my 2 c
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Didn't pay close attention of %, but i saw that 221 hits more often then 222, that was little wierd to me because i think that Norm trigger for OT was 221...but if you back up it with some recent history and SAP maybe it works better. Think that PJ can give some advice about this.
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Results that i have got are from fully mechanical test...i was waiting first 4+ and then when that run is over i play that every 3 will go to 4 +, and i do not stop on that event, i play that every 3 will go to 4+ untill the end of the shoe, unless there is 3 ×3 then i quit. Didnt pay attention if 3 is MC or LC i just played mechanical , and i got same results like Pando. To me is interesting that we have same result from diferent shoes. Now i am trying to see is there any way to increse this %
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Personally i dont like to use NP. Would be happy if we can work our way with flatbet and achive better then 50 % and like that we can use larger units with less risk or we can use loop 1 2 since you said that this way wins almost 70% of all bets
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Ok, we have 93 % winning triggers using this rule...i 60 shoes that i have tested it was 130 triggers and 122 of them won...that means that after first 4 + there was not 3×3 after it. If we were using 1 2 4 NP we would have won 122units and lose 8×7 = 56...that means 66 units for 60 shoes....some of this shoes were very short and sdnt had any trigger... if someone is happy with score he can play like this...Pando and i have same result from different shoes, it means that you sholud get same on tour shoes. NOW, big question is... do we need to stay on the run all the way...i think that we can use this rules...we can go on the run all the way if 4+ is stronger then 4, also go on the run if 4+ are not stronger but run have gone to 5....then do not bet if 3s are MC by 3 point spread and stop to bet when you see 3×3s.
Any oppinions ?
Baccman
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30 minutes ago, trillion said:
Baccman, did you get 93% checking that ZZ,s and Streaks betting that after 3 IAR that it would go to 4 IAR or was this just betting on the Streak side of the shoe?????
Its just for streaks....i wait 4+ and then i bet on every 3 that will go to 4+ untill i see 3 ×3 then i quit...its like pando said.... 93% of the time there was not 3 ×3 after first 4 +...i didnt checked ZZ but i think that they are not as reliable as streaks
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12 minutes ago, Pando said:
Fantastic result Baccman, brilliant
Staying on the run is a bit subjective, in other words it depends on many factors
If the runs are only 4IAR, then I win 3 goes to 4, and loose 4 goes to 5, ie: even
If the run is 5IAR, then I win 2 bets and loose 1, so nett +1, and so on
So I look at the history of the runs to see how long they are, it usually a pretty good guide as to what will happen, mostly anyway
If they are already long, that will probably continue, but nothing is set in concrete.
Secondly I also look at my position in the shoe. Am I just starting the shoe, am I ahead, or way ahead
That will determine whether I stop the run, (at 5 for example) and take a 1 unit profit.
So I cannot give a definite answer except to say that you only loose the last bet when on the run.
So unless I have other factors to convince me otherwise (as above) I usually stay until then end
I have had some amazing runs, I think 18IAR is the most. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Yes thats something like my question in first post. If we have more 4 then 5+ maybe we should bet it just for 1 unit. But if 5+s are stronger then 4s then we sholud stay on the run. And also it depends on tour position in the shoe.
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17 hours ago, Pando said:
I have some statistics from my local casino which I propose applies to most others.
It doesn't exactly answer your question as you wrote it, but it is close.
I have computed statistics for over 200 shoes, and additional unwritten observations and playing records which show that
1) After a 4IAR or more, the likelihood of another 4IAR or more, before I see three x 3IAR's, in the same shoe, is 92%
2) The longer the IAR run is, the more likely another or multiple longer IAR's will occur
3) There were very few shoes (less than 2%) where there was only one 4IAR or more in the shoe
When I see a 4IAR or more, I play every 3IAR to become a 4IAR unless there have been three 3's staying 3 without going to a 4IAR. In that case I find another shoe.
Sorry I do not have the same stats for ZZ runs but by observation, I suspect they are less reliable
But the way you have written the question, I would answer by saying probably yes.
Because playing the way I describe here wins almost 70% of all bets
The only thing to decide is whether to play the IAR's until the end or not. Some times I will see nothing longer than a 4IAR, in which case I break even on the sequence. The longer the first IAR sequence, the better.
Hope this helps
I just checked 60 shoes using your rules and i got 93 %, now the question is is it better to stay on the run all the way
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If we go on every STR or ZZ run untill it ends afer 4 only if there was prior 5+ , and not if there is more 4s then 5+s, can we do better then 50 % on the long run ?
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IMO there is no consistency in any event count, only thing that i have noticed is that 1s are usually average. And also there is no casino that is always low in some event. You cant just sit there and play s40m1 cuz you saw that that casino is low on 2s....take 50 shoes and you will have 50% 1s 25% 2s ....... so that casino is not always low on 2s you can just find shoes that favors to s40m1. So that means that you need to follow the shoe. No mechanical system that works, you cant sit there and say i will play this. And yes you damn need it to KISS, just follow the shoe, but sure you will lose some cuz they will keep changing, but like we said we need little bit over 50 %. And also damn DISCIPLINE, only thing that keep pulling me back.
Also too bad that PJ, Zebra, OZ are not active, this forum is not same w/o them.......Norm RIP.....what a legend.
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Shoes at dublinbet are ALMOST always low or average at 1s. I have played many times at the night when they had 7,8,9 1s mostly sporadic.
Also not many shoes where LC & MC will handle whole shoe.
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Hi guys
did anyone saw when do they bring new cards at blackorchid and dublinbet. And did they favors to s40 and otb4l first few shoes or they are not predictable.
Cheers
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Can someone tell me if have statistic of how often OR count puts you in right mode...is it more then 50 % ?
What Exactly is SAP and 5D ?
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
Yes, i was thinking 2 failure of MC event, first time when it fails you stop betting, if it wins next time you bet on it again, if not, you stop.