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allphar

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  4. Worth at least $50K

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted · Edited by allphar

    Kevin, I use a bet selection as McVince has described as descending events.

    (I will not link to it here, as it is in the premium section)

    I have tested it on about 200 shoes and the variance is very low. 200 shoes is not much but maybe others can chime in on this.

    Two units on this shoe I was on.

    I will be working on strengthening it. i.e if there are indications to not place the bet.

    example 4.png

  5. Worth at least $50K

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Pando said:

    Hi allphar

    Apologies for not giving you a direct answer previously

    I put all my baccarat cards in my computer and it shows that in  more than 90% of ALL shoes from where I play, if there is a 4IAR or more, then there will be another one in the shoe.

    Now of course its not that straight forward that the 4+IAR's will be sequential. The shoe you posted is a good example of that. It is a shoe with very high 3's, approximately double what is mathematically expected.

    In a shoe that starts with the 2 x 3's before the first 4IAR, I am very wary and do not make the bet unless 4+IAR's start to dominate more than 3's. By that time we are into a different kind of shoe anyway.

    I find this trigger very use full when the shoe goes something like 11122211156111121111123 (an actual shoe I played) - then I would play the unconfirmed 3 to go to 4. ( It did you to 4, and ended up 7IAR).

    It is also useful when the end of the shoe is approaching, and there has only been one 4+IAR in the shoe. I would play any 3 to go to 4 in that situation.

    Its a trigger that works very well for me.

    regards Pando

     

     

     

     

    Great information Pando. Cheers.

  6. Worth at least $50K

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    6 hours ago, Pando said:

    I find Brad's L3M (last 3 Events) method very useful

    A trigger I figured out myself is that if there is a 4 more in the shoe (the longer and earlier in the shoe the better)) then there is a 90+% change that there will be another one in the shoe

     

    That's an interesting trigger Pando, the 4+ early enough in the shoe, then aim for another 4 in the shoe.

    How would you approach the following shoe in terms of a stop loss:

    example 3.png

  16. Acceptable Variance?

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    Hi guys,

    When applying/testing a particular bet selection approach (not mechanical system), what do you consider to be an acceptable variance/drawdown over a range of shoes.

    For example say an approach hit minus 40 units over 100 shoes. Is that too much?

    What should the max be? I know the idea is to win more bets than lose but not sure of where I should set the drawdown line.

    Thanks.

     

     

  18. KEVIN's VIDEO

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted · Edited by allphar

    2 hours ago, wolfat said:

    K & K,

    many thanks for posting your video describing your betting placement technique.

    I found it reaaly interesting. What I like is that in this game we never stop learning, investigating, discovering ! 

    I need to ponder it a bit, to fix it in my mind but I like it. It's safe and everybody can manage it.

    Again, thanks for sharing your work!

    A

     

     
     

    Hi wolfat, When you mention "safe", I'm assuming you mean the (flat bet) drawdown would be quite low over a good range of played shoes?

    Also assuming that is doesn't involve negative progressions?

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