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gablaw

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Posts posted by gablaw

  3. Bet Phoenix "Cutting it short"

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    You guys are still posting some weirdly choppy shoes from BPH. How often are they doing a wash these days and under what circumstances? I'm wondering if their wash is a good signal to go to a chop system like system 40 and maybe raise the stakes???

    After a wash, BP got its chop back. No 4+s, ZZs of 10 and 7. +52 with Sys 40 U1D2M2. Anybody play it for real?

    P1111232111321

    P1131111122321

    P211111111122212

    B112311211112111

  7. Questions re SAP count and P vs. B

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    Thanks, Wolfman, but I still don't get why the one particular shoe you're playing is governed by statistics which are only meaningful in the long run. Would you bet against a run of 8 because it only occurs one time in 8 shoes and one just occurred in the last shoe? Or would you play what's happening right now? I guess I could understand If we're playing the odds over a large number of shoes.

  11. Bet Phoenix "Cutting it short"

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    This shoe at BPH scored +47 from play 9 with RD straight through Wish I played it! What happened to chop?

    B33111111161

    B3112215221

    P331114331

    P39212

    I tried to post it using Hog's explanation-couldn't get it in my album. I could email it to you if you give me your address.

    I started on P at play 9 because it won 4 of the last 5. I used RD because I had seen the whole shoe already. Also, Mark said he usually starts with RD, didn't want to use OTB4l because of possible ZZ, 40 didn't look so hot (although it got hot). I suppose F2 could've been a choice starting on P but the result would be the same, going to RD after the P run from play 14-19.

  12. Questions re SAP count and P vs. B

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    1. I still don't completely understand using only weighted event counts. E.g., with a SAP count of 6 10 20 8 the conventional wisdom is to bet 2s will go to 3. But there have been an equal number of 2s and 3s, 5 each. So why is it more likely 2s will go to 3 in THIS PARTICULAR SHOE, in which they're running equal, and which shoe doesn't know or care what the normal occurrences are in the long run?

    2. When counting 1s, 2s 3s and 4s does anybody have an opinion as to whether it makes a difference whether they are Ps or Bs. E.g., if only, or mostly, Ps have been 3s, would you be less likely to bet on B going to 3?

  16. Casino Commandments

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted · Edited by gablaw

    These are from stock market trading, but many equally applicable here,

    1. The market is God. This means that the market is always right, even if its wrong. If you think the market should be in a double dip and it isn't, then that's your problem — not the market's. Your theory is wrong. You missed something. Blaming the market never made anyone any money.

    4. Wall Street's Hippocratic Oath: First do no harm. In other words, it is better not to make money than to lose it.

    5. Never apologize for a profit. The goal in investing is to make money. If you make 5% and the stock goes up another 1,000%, it doesn't matter. You still made money, and that's a good thing.

    6. There is no success like success. When you make a winning trade, make it again. This means that if you trade dividend announcements, or you trade MACD crossovers, or whatever you do... If it works, keep going back to it until it doesn't. One of the best years I ever had was shorting recent IPOs after the insider-shares unlocked. This worked like a dream until it became too popular and IPOs started staggering their unlock dates.

    7. Never put money in a hope. If you don't have a clear investment strategy with a simple catalyst for share price appreciation, don't buy the stock.

    8. Be your own man. Do your own research and stick to your guns. You know more about the trade than they do.

    9. Never step in front of a freight train. This is also known as the "don't catch a falling knife" rule. There are bottom signs in the market; know them and wait for them.

    After reading what's going on in the BPH thread, I'm adding another commandment:

    Getting ugly never won anybody any money. Probably the opposite.

  17. Bet Phoenix "Cutting it short"

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted

    Did you see the whole shoe ? The reason I'm asking is a morning shoe today started 11:44 am EST today had a glitch and at hand # 8 I had just recorded and was about to bet and I looked away and when I looked back the board was erased and the history too. I don't recall exactly what I thought at the time as I was just sippin coffee and getting going. But I continued recording as if nothing had happened and the shoe went SAP 11, 10, 16, 24 and the shoe ended on hand #68. Had I not seen the beginning of the shoe erased I would have figured it as a 60 hand shoe. It was a nice balanced streaker as it was, longest straight run 7R, three 5's a 6R and a 4R . It was an easy shoe for RD-H the whole way even with the four lone 1's.

    I haven't seen any short shoes lately but plenty of washing, some double team washes and occasionally a single dealer will wash at any time of day. I don't know their criteria for the shuffle changes now. Even though I have not seen a short shoe lately they may slip one in on occasion. Play cautiously if you do not see the whole shoe.

    The nickel table froze up on me this morning so I turned on fun mode and played T-2 ( the $500.00 minimum job.) Both shoes pretty good. I flipped into my conservative progression and both shoes ended at +14.5. Really bumped up my fun account in a big hurry. Also the game moved along at the normal pace of about 1hour and 10 or 15 minutes per shoe. Maybe that was because the other table was down the whole time and they had more bandwidth to run the single table. I don't know. T-1 is back up and running now.

    UPDATE: Oy, I just dropped into the nickel table at Bph and it is a about ½ way done. Has a nice OTB4L start then 13 Banks in a row followed by a bunch of players right now. 7:20 pm EST. Check it out !

    I didn't see the beginning of the shoe so I suppose that could have happened. The good news is I was on that 13 run--the bad news is that I bet mostly single units on it. So I tried to fib the next run once it hit 5-no luck. Btw, this shoe was the second after their big deal 2 dealer wash.

  22. Bet Phoenix "Cutting it short"

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted · Edited by gablaw

    Bravo. Ellis, but how do you know what's coming? In many shoes at BPH, there will be a trend for 5-10 plays then abruptly change. I might catch the last 3-4 hands after identifying the trend and then lose it in the next 2-3 hands when the trend changes. I guess the safest way is to play those few shoes in which the trend lasts much longer. For example, the first shoe today after the morning wash-+23 O/R count. Sys 40 straight through U1D2= +35, hi bet 3.

    P11131211211311

    P1121241112112

    B31111231111112

    B21111121151

  24. Bet Phoenix "Cutting it short"

    in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack

    Posted · Edited by gablaw

    There were 4 ties a few days ago as well. Did you play this shoe straight through RDh with no pauses? I got +10 with 5 hi that way to just before the humongous run. At first OTB4L looked promising, it won 4 of 6 in hands 3-8--big mistake as the 6 run came immediately after.

    BPH looks choppy in the mornings, and definitely gets streaky later in the day. Just as Ellis says. I have trouble moving from chop to streak and back in their shoes.

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