Should I turn Pro?

[Guest]

Below is a post that I posted to an interesting thread on the public Baccarat forum. I apologize that it is a little out of context here but if it interests you you can put it in perspective by going to the public Bac forum and reading some of the prior posts. I also apologize for talking Bac on a BJ forum. However the subject of going pro applies to both games. Also, I get into pro BJ before the post ends. Enjoy:

Re: Baccarat for a living

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Hi guys. Somehow I missed this very interesting thread until this morning. I hope it's not too late to put my 2 cents in. Since I played as a full time pro for several years after retiring as a college professor and since I wrote the systems you are discussing, I feel qualified to comment on your questions. What did I teach? Statistical Analysis, Physics, Calculus, stuff like that.

While we certainly appreciate all posts, I noted that most of the replys here are not from members and others are from brand new members who are just beginning their studies and not yet fully quilified to comment. But some, like Andrea are highly quilified. However even Andrea has not delved into the Exploit systems yet. So, you are only getting a partial picture.

Somebody mentioned Silverthorne. We exposed Silverthorne as a fraud a few months back. I don't know if those posts are still up??? He's teaching a 400 year old system as something brand new. It didn't work then and it doesn't work now. Many are trying to get their money back. It's not a Bac system, it's merely a betting scheme. I don't think he means to be a fraud. It just ends up that way due to his lack of experience with true systems.

First, yes all of the systems I teach are 100% mechanical. There are 3 Twister systems and 6 Exploit systems. But each of these systems can also be optionally played what we call 3Hi, like Chop Exploit and Chop Exploit 3 Hi. 3Hi is a conservative way of playing a system where your maximum bet is 3 units. So how many is that? Whatever.

The three systems in the Twister series are designed to be an entrapment for the casinos. One likes what the other two don't like. It usually works at most casinos as Andrea has proven time and again, even in Atlantic City. But some casinos are hep to it and present interesting counter measures. A group of the members are experimenting with varying the mode change signals of the basic Twister in an attempt to make it beat all shoes. And they are enjoying considerable success. But work remains on that project and improvments are immenent. We call that the U version.

But that project divides us into two basic camps.

One camp portends that one adjustable system for all shoes is the easier approach because you can become so highly expert at that one system.

The other camp which is the camp I began with and played full time portends that it is best to have a different system for every shoe type. Hence the Exploit systems.

I don't think we can think in terms of which camp has the better approach because different players will do better in one camp than the other. I think it's best to thoroughly learn BOTH camps and go with the one that has the most appeal to you personally. Or, I'm sure some of you will be sharp enough to use the approach that works best in a given casino on a given day. Its not a competition, its a search for excellence.

But even system selection is a mechanical function. We use two simple counts to establish system selection. I think its best to keep track of both counts in every shoe you play. They are very simple running counts that any normal 4 year old could master.

In fact, I'm getting ready to start class 3 on the private forum which is a detailed study of the two counts and exactly how to apply the counts to correct system selection. This is not higher math. It is all very easy. But the trick is to learn why certain count characteristics point to a certain system rather than memorize what count characteristics point to what system. So I'm going to concentrate this class on that result.

You know, I'm sorry now that I ever used the term "Exploit" because it scares people. Then I scared them even more by mentioning that one of our players won 450 units in one shoe playing the Super Streak Exploit. I'm sorry I ever mentioned that because folks conjure up nightmares of taking huge risks. This is not in the nature of anyone but the sickest of gamblers. Then I made matters even worse by posting to the public a very high risk system called the AOW. Call it temporary insanity. But let me say to the public and the members alike that our Exploit systems are NOT high risk systems. In fact, the opposite is true. The exploit systems are designed to remove risk.

I don't like to take high risks either. In my last trip to Vegas I played the Chop Exploit 3 Hi. That's about as conservative as you can get. My highest bet was 3 green units and that bet came up very seldom. And the few times that 3 bet came up I was always making it out of my winnings in that same shoe, never out of my buy in chips. Not once in 3 days. I made my goal of 20 units in every full shoe I played for 3 days and I made my goal of 10 units in every partial shoe I played except one. That shoe I ended up dead even but that shoe was only 12 plays long. So what was my risk those 3 days? Zilch! And, I didn't even use the count. I did my entire table selection from the Tote Board. And, yep, one of our members was right there watching every play. Why didn't I go to black? Because I wanted to fly under the radar. I didn't want them tampering with that table. It was a strong chop bias and it lasted for 3 days. They know me well there and if I went to Black they would have been all over me.

Can I teach YOU how to do this. Sure, at 67, that is now my whole purpose in life. In fact I taught Tom 2, A totally inexperienced brand new member. And I only had a few days to teach him via Email. He already had a trip planned last month for the same casino, the Gold Coast. But Tom 2 went on a holiday weekend and never got a seat his whole trip. But he won $500 just betting over somebody's shoulder and more than paid for his trip. I'm sure if Tom 2 sees this post, he will come on here and verify all this. Tom?

Let's get back to teaching the Exploits. Here's what I plan to do. I received a Vegas shoe a few days ago from one of our top players, Dr. Jim Bowers. He got dealt this shoe at a casino where he had been consistently beating them playing the basic Twister. This shoe is unmistakably what I call a designer shoe. It is a shoe designed by the casino to beat the Twister and it does hands down. Yes, casinos have that ability and they use that ability particularly against notorious players like Dr Bower. Now, how do I know it's a designer shoe.? a ringer shoe, if you will. There is a thing called frequency of occurrence. Every pattern of plays has its mathematical normal frequency of occurrence. The Twister loses to a pattern of 3113. That is either BBBPBPPP or PPPBPBBB. That is an 8 play pattern and its normal mathematical frequency of occurrence is once every eight shoes. Two 3113s in the same shoe would be 8 x 8 or once every 64 shoes except that the first 3113 took up 8 plays leaving fewer available plays to contain a second 3113. Also the last 7 plays of a shoe are not available either because you can't have a 3113 pattern in only 7 plays. So the actual odds of two 3113s in the same shoe are exactly the same as the odds of two 8 in a rows in the same shoe or about 1 in 100. In fact, look at it this way: In the last 100 shoes you played, how many of them had two 8 in a rows in them? I rest my case. But this shoe doesn't have two 3113s. It has three. Odds? About 1 in 1000. In fact this shoe begins with a 3113. The odds of that alone are 1 out of 128. You could play your whole life and easily never see this again. NOW, what are the odds of a 3113 starting a shoe and occurring 3 times in that shoe when the casino KNOWS that 3113 is your losing pattern? Coincidence? There is a saying that says: "there is no such thing as coincidence". Now we know that isn't true but that saying was born from gamblers who learned that gamblers are better off if they believe that saying. Well at least he didn't get struck by lightening at that table which would have probably been more likely. That is the shoe I will publish here on the public forum in PPP BB PPP format. BTW, on the private forum we can post original shoes. But I will post it here under "The Shoe" along with both running counts to show you how simple the counts are. That is the shoe I will use to teach the Exploits on the private forum.

See, yes, the casino can bias a shoe with their shuffle machines. BUT! When a casino biases a shoe in one direction they inadvertantly make it exploitable from another direction. That's exactly what the counts expose. Get it? See why the counts are so important? See why the Exploits are so important?

Somebody mentioned the Zuma Tester. I've said this a zillion times. The Zuma tester is fine to use as a practice tool but it is completely useless as a system tester. It is just a bunch of mindless shoes from yesteryear that a guy recorded. There is no intelligent force behind those shoes. The Zuma Tester is not trying to beat you. The casino definitely is and there is a very intelligent force behind those shoes. Look, you don't need to take my word for this. Casinos, by law, must publically declare their annual income on every game played. Baccarat averages better than 16% of the money bet - more at some casinos. We see these figures on TV all the time. Commission accounts for 1.2 % of the money bet. Aside from commission Baccarat is a 50 - 50 game. All bets are paid off 1 to 1. Where does the remaining 14.8% avg. reported casino Baccarat profits come from? Tips? Tips go to the dealers and floor personnel, not to profits. Casinos aren't going to report more profits than they actually make. If anything they will report less because they must pay taxes on those profits. That is what you are up against at a Baccarat table. A game that is manipulated against you to the tune of 15%. We call that casino orchestration. Casino orchestration is a fact of life. Without it casinos would die on the vine in a matter of days. Do you really think that casinos actually operate at 1.2% profits? Come on! Nobody is that naive. Commission wouldn't even pay the salaries of the floor personnel let alone all that glitter. The game is rigged! Casinos must rig to exist. The Exploit systems use their own rigging against them. We've been successful doing that for 20 years. Zuma Tester! God help us. One of our players reported that he killed the Zuma Tester by playing the whole thing through with our Streak Exploit. So should we drop everything and run out and play the Streak Exploit? No, he merely proved that that Zuma Tester is biased toward streak. He proved that in the time period that that Zuma Tester was recorded, the game favored streak. This is nothing new to us. We covered that period in the History section of the manual. I made a lot of money back then just going out and flat betting repeats. Our count told us that the game was biased toward streak. Casinos are a lot smarter today. You have to be just as smart as they are. Today the shoes are biased but they aren't all biased the same way like most of them were back then. So you beat the Zuma tester! Big Whip! Meaningless. Now go and play a real casino with real money the same exact way and see what happens.

Now that you have some inkling of what you are really up against let's get back to the real question of this thread. Can a person make a good living gambling full time? The fact is there is a specific reason why it is a whole lot easier right now than ever before - including back when I played full time. We'll get back to that reason in a minute.

First, the good news! If you like gambling or even if its merely interesting to you, the life of a full time gambler is the most exciting life you could ever dream of. It is a great life! You will have days where you are "in the groove" where you can do nothing wrong and make tons of money. And you will have challenging days where it takes all your wits and all your skills to eak out a profit. But, to me, those challenging days when I got by on wits alone were half the fun.

But, if I could be your mentor for a minute as I am for several pros:

No, the basic Twister is not the way to go. It is an amateur system. It won't work for a notorious player. You can't help but become a notorious player either before you turn pro or shortly afterward. Notorious players are players that the casino tries to beat. And they are very good at it. The basic Twister has a losing pattern 3113. Yes it should come up once every 8 shoes but for you it will come up every shoe. Yes, absolutely the casins can do that with their card readers in their shuffle machines.

Case in point: When I first designed the basic Twister 3 years ago Keith ran it through a random generator for 1000 shoes. It won every shoe. Yes, it got to some pretty high bets now and then but if I remember right I think the highest bet was 12 but it won every shoe. Keith got so excited that he ran right out to the casino in spite of my objections. He won the first two shoes beautifully. After that a 3113 popped up just like clockwork in the first column of EVERY shoe. Two shoes started with 3113. So he went to the casino next door but the same thing happened. Yes casinos collaborate when it comes to notorious players and Keith has been a notorious player for many many years.

The Twister U version is a different story. Now that is a professional system because it does not have a specific losing pattern that the casino can zero in on. BTW, all systems available on the market elsewhere are amateur systems.

So, should you learn the U version and become a pro? No. Now recognize that if I said yes, I would probably sell a lot of U versions. But I can't say yes. I think that going to that kind of war with one arrow in your quiver would be foolhardy.

You need a full quiver. You need to be fully expert at many ways to beat them. You need to have the resources to fall back and charge from a different direction whenever they get the upper hand and they WILL get the upper hand often. Casinos are BIG TIME and they are blood thirsty and they know exactly what they are doing and they have far more resources and money than you will ever have. They are a very formidable foe.

You know, you see the nice face of the casino, the smiles, the comps. You see the face they want you to see. But that is a mask. Behind that mask is the most vicious carnivorous force you ever dealt with.

But to me, that was part of the fun. I knew exactly what I was dealing with but that just made me want to beat them all the more. I played with a vengeance.

Ok so now you've got one arrow in your quiver. What's next. That arrow is not very big. The U version doesn't win a lot but it is pretty consistent. We'll get to some more and bigger arrows in a minute but first, let me make a couple more points.

You know, most people think that a pro is a guy that can deal with the toughest casino situations. Not true at all. A real pro is a guy skilled at AVOIDING tough casino situations. He is skilled at finding the easiest situations to beat. He knows when to play and where to play and exactly how to play those easy situations. He knows when to retreat and when to go for the jugular. And the pro knows that he MUST go for the jugular every chance he gets.

The amateur thinks in terms of: "if I had just one simple system that consistently won a few units." But the amateur is not a notorious player. The casino is not after him. The amateur can do that, but the pro can't. The pro knows full well that the casino is very much after him. He MUST get the money when the getting is good and he must know how to continuously find those easy situations.

But the key word is PREPARATION. There is no such thing as a partially successful professional gambler. You've Got to go in with a full quiver. The Exploit systems ARE professional systems. Our counts tell us how the shoe is biased and believe me ALL shoes are biased. The counts also point toward the best system to play. What is the bias and what is the best system to beat that bias?

What do I mean when I say ALL shoes are biased. Of course if a shoe or table is consistently streaky or consistently choppy, the bias is obvious. In a Streaky shoe or table the OR count will be a minus count all or most of the time telling you to play the Streak Exploit. It even tells you which version of the Streak Exploit to play: The Super Streak Exploit for consistent streak,where you are shooting for 200 units or more, the Full version, where you are shooting for 50 units, the 2D version where you are shooting for 40 units or the 3Hi where you are shooting for 20 units. But suppose your OR count is hovering around zero. The shoe is not streaky or choppy. Then that IS the bias. You would play the OR Exploit and you would be shooting for 50 units. The same holds true for shoes or tables favoring Player or favoring Bank or favoring sporadic ones or high disparity. There is a bias in every shoe and a system to soundly beat every bias. This is not hard and you get better with practice. You get so good that you can just glance at a players scorecard from the isle and discern the bias W/O even breaking stride. That's how the Pro plays Baccarat. He finds the table with the strongest, most consistent bias and Boom. The pro goes for the easiest situation where he can win the most. That is what we will be teaching next week, pro Baccarat.

So now, can we learn the Exploits and turn pro. Yes you could but I would not recommend it. Now you've got a half a quiver. I would want your quiver to be FULL. Look, if you really want to play pro take the time to also learn NBJ. NBJ is the professional way to play BJ. It is miles ahead of any other way to play. When you finish this post go over to the BJ forum and study the current exploits of Mad Dog. He is consistently winning to the tune of $10,000 a day and he's playing under a big handicap. He only plays NBJ Third Base. He hasn't even learned the NBJ First Base System yet or WCB or Xtreme BJ. And NBJ is cheap. I think Keith has it for $200 and there's some deal if you buy WCB at the same time. Look, to turn pro you want to be the best that you can be. Give yourself every chance you can. You owe youself that much.

Oh yeah, Why is it easier to turn pro today than ever before? Because NBJ conditions are better today than ever before. Any NBJ player knows that his odds increase as the number of players in the game decreases. All the way down to head to head. An NBJ player playing head to head is a beautiful thing, like poetry in motion. The casinos know this too. Therefore they close BJ tables to keep the tables full. But the new popularity of poker stopped them in their tracks. Today, the average player will go to the poker room rather than suffer overcrowdwd BJ tables. This makes the best NBJ conditions of all time. Just ask Mad Dog!

[Guest CarlosM]

Yes! Fantastic conditions.