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Re: I am ecstatic ! Thank you, Ellis.



Originally Posted by Zenwin

I am blessed of having all your supports on my BJ plays. I can't thank you more.

Therefore, another early morning, same seat like you've taught me. Today I played 3 shoes. Last 2 were a bit of battle. I MADE ANOTHER 13 UNITS. I left (very satisfied). Dealer also congrats me of "exercise my controls". But I am beat for my plays as the followings:

During my plays there came a gentleman who sat on my right. Everyone knows (including the casino) that he is a card counter. I am happy because this is a proof that the casino is not afraid of them, like you've taught us. I am impressed however, there were 2 hands during play, he saw that I had the standing hands, he went to hit his 10,7, got 10, busted (obvious the table were roaring when he did). And soon we found out, if the dealer had caught this first 10, the whole table would lose. It was a small card that came in between the second 10 together that broke the dealer. He had saved me (the table) twice.

Another hand I had 7,4 vs. 7 up. Mostly pat hands for this round, but not many 10s. 2 pers. hit, only small cards came out. I felt 10 wasn't going to fall and I wasn't going to double. But just as I was too curious what "his count" told him. (May be after all these small a 10 will be coming). He said very quickly, although not forcefully "I would double". So I did, I got a 3. (Obviously I said to myself, this is shxt,). He said "This is GOOD". I answered, "How can you say this is good !" He pointed, "Just look for yourself". Dealer turned over a 3, made 10 (closed to my hand, which made sense that I should never double). However, his first hit was a 3, and next a 10 that broke him. If I didn't double, I would have hit again to my 17, and lost to the dealer's 20.

So, the real result of today should be less units for me. (There were 3 hands I couldn't have won.) Normally I would have been just as satisfied. And now, it has gotten me to think What is THAT he knows to predict these pattern of card falls ? He told me he did the unbalance count, 2 to 9 = +1, all 10s = -2, the Aces he'll keep an eyes on. Then he'd sometime do the 7s count, sometime HL count. He asked me if I would want to learn, I said "No, it would be too much for my little brain." I asked him why he would scarify for the table, by hitting his 17s, but didn't get paid for. (No answer.) He did not do good at this table, that I know for sure. Can you guess ? And right you are, he lost all his very big bets on high count which wasn't coming. I was a true witness of that.

However, my intention today was to try the up-as-you-lose system. But I failed to exercise any of it because these strange happenings at the table. I noticed though, I had lost 3 in a row once in of of the shoe. That also made me scared to try.

2 more questions:

1) Are these counts able to predict which card come first ? (He mentioned he also checked what were on the table). I remember as in fact before I study NBJ, sometime when I was the last person who played "NOT double" knowingly I'd hit a small. But it left me only in confusion of how to play next. I often hit again, but got H and busted. If I would have played "double", I had no choice as to stand on my stiff but would see the dealer busted on this H.

Can you comment on this ??

"Should we take a second card on a non doubling hand thats not knowing if it's going to hurt or help us ? Or, should we just stand on our stiff." I got some sensible reply such as "Of course, we should hit, since we not double we're betting a 10 won't fall, when we don't make our hand it is giving us a chance to make it up." Yeah, BUT! Judging from the live example of the above description, can you figure out what is going on ? Sorry, I don't recall every hand on the table.

2) I have also noticed that some of the low ten ratio rounds are not necessary dealer favorable once the dealer has a 10 up. For everyone hit and no one bust. When all the Ls are gone, dealer's stiff hand will get busted on the 10 / coming card. This is rather easy to identify because the table is full with player's small cards, 2 x 10s at the most. Can you comment of this ? I know I am inexperienced to bet with the 10 ratio. But wouldn't this offset our theory as to low 10 ratio = dealer favorable. It seems the fine line is on the dealer's up card. Right, or wrong ?

I hope that I'm not such a bother. Your reply and I'll assure you a million times, is greatly appreciated.

p.s. Please feel free to switch your answer over to the 'Art of doubling' as you wish, even to the private forum, I'll check everywhere.

p.p.s. Can casinos read us ? Can they possibly identify who I am and where I play ?

Hi Zenwin: First, I don't mind answering general questions on the public forum because we don't get into the specifics of NBJ. But it gives the sharper, more experienced public players sufficient information to know that we know exactly what we are talking about. When they compare us to other BJ sites they will find that we are far and away the best there is. I seriously doubt that they can find another site that is run by an actual player. If you don't have the experience of playing this game, the experience of putting your own hard earned money where your mouth is, you don't qualify to teach others how to bet THEIR hard earned money.

Let's take your last question first: Does the casino know who you are? If you win with any regularity, yes, they know who you are. Can you prevent it? NO.

Here's a war story that makes my point clear: My son Mark and I developed a partners Baccarat system that is almost impossible for the casino to beat. Partners Baccarat is one of the things we get into over on the members Baccarat forum. We thought we had the secrecy of it down pat. We stayed at the Claridge in AC but played the Sands across the street. We walked into the Sands separately about a half hour apart. We sat at the same table but never spoke to or acknowledged each other. We picked the Sands because neither of us had ever played Bac there before. We entered the game at different times. After we had both been in the Big Bac, $100 game about an hour, the casino shift changed. The old pit boss was updating the new pit boss as to what was going on in the game. Although they were about 8 feet behind me I could hear every word of this conversation. I have very good ears and I have learned how to exploit this ability in the casino. The old pit boss said, word for word: "Everybody is down a little except for two guys. That's E. Clifton Davis at 9 and that's his son Mark at 3. They are playing partners. Ellis is betting repeats and Mark is betting opposites. They are $800 up at the moment." Never underestimate the casino. They are much sharper than they seem.

Now, let's answer your question 2 above: This was a very astute observation. And very useful! It's in your manual. Remember what I said about your manual: Your first reading only a few light bulbs will turn on. But the more you read it the more light bulbs turn on. Our pros here still read their manuals and light bulbs still turn on. I just had one of the long time pros this morning ask me for a new WCB manual because he had worn out his old manual.

It is a good trick to ALWAYS note what the dealer is breaking on. In some games, yes, she is breaking where she is "supposed" to be breaking: in high ratio rounds with a first card 10. But in MANY games she might very well NEVER be breaking where she is supposed to be breaking but repeatedly breaking with low ups and in low ratio rounds. Now think about that. If you KNOW where the dealer is breaking isn't that extremely useful information? Isn't that REALLY what BJ is all about - to correctly anticipate dealer breaks? You will be the ONLY player in such a game to note this information. AND, you will be the only winner. I guarantee it. Just keep reading your manual. There are many, many invaluable tips in there that help you beat games nobody else can beat. Ask any of the pros here. They are very, very accustomed to being the only winner at the table. They are ALWAYS the most enlightened player at the table. If you're going to gamble, be good at it.

Now lets take 1. above. NO, there is no counting method that predicts the order of card fall. In fact, YOU will soon be able to do this better than he does it. See what your manual has to say about Zippers. And there are many other tricks to this in your manual. Sometimes you can predict with seemingly uncanny accuracy.

Case in point: Keith and I were in AC on a crowded Sat night to count dealer first card tens. Table after table, casino after casino, up and down the boardwalk, they were getting 8 out of 13 first card tens. I would have said this was totally impossible if I hadn't seen it with my own eyes. Later we had a dozen experienced statistic gatherers checking the same phenomenon. We had a hundred checking it in Vegas where 6 tens out of 13 is common on Saturday night. Such games cannot be beat by anyone. It's one of those things your manual teaches you to check. So, anyway, I said to Keith "I sure ain't gonna play tonight, I'm coming back tomorrow early to play NEW cards." Walked into Caesar's at 8 AM. I was a little too early and ended up playing one shoe of last night's cards for red and lost nearly every hand in the 4 player game. The new cards came out. The other 3 players left and I played the dealer head to head for green. I killed him and in the third shoe I won or pushed on ever hand. That's a lot of hands in 8 deck without a loss. So the dealer stopped the game and called the pit boss over and said; "This guy can see the cards!" "What makes you say that!" "He just won every hand in the shoe!" - a slight exaggeration, "and he never plays the same way twice - sometimes he hits 16 against my ten and sometimes he doesn't but he's never wrong" So I pipe in: "You didn't complain four shoes ago when I LOST every hand so why complain now?" The pit boss was having none of that and says "OK buddy, what's the next card in the shoe?" Me, "This is ridiculous, I don't know!" "GUESS!" "OK, the 4 of clubs!" The pit boss pulled the next card and unfortunately, you guessed it, it was indeed, the 4 of clubs. I was the only one shocked by this. "YOU'RE OUT OF HERE!!!" "does this mean I can't have breakfast at the....." "GET THE HELL OUT OF HERE!!!!!" See, sometimes our predictive abilities can get us into a little hot water. Later that day it was all over Atlantic City. "Davis can see the cards in the dealer shoe before they're dealt!" Now that gave me a few problems for a while.

So don't worry about your big player. He was just a very experienced player showing off to a rookie. It won't be long and you'll be showing him a thing or two.

Should we take a second card? Absolutely, sometimes 5 or 6. How often have you stood only to find that you could have taken three more hits? Here's a good rule of thumb: If lows are running, assume they will run forever. That's right out of your manual. AGAIN! Why would you do this? Because YOU are the only player at the table who KNOWS that lows follow lows more often than they randomly should just like highs follow highs more often than they randomly should. The odds are with you. How do WE know that? Because we tested that statistic over millions of hands. How do YOU know that? Because its in your manual. Again. Will you ALWAYS be right? Of course not. But thankfully BJ is not about ALWAYS is it. BJ is about USUALLY!

There is such a thing as not breaking enough. Think about it. If you NEVER hit to a breaking card you could NEVER win could you? We call them "chicken hitters!" Chicken hitters are to be dispised and avoided. Why? Because they don't take their fair share of dealer favorable lows out of the game. They leave them for the dealer and cause everyone at the table to lose, except the dealer. On the other hand YOU would always win if ALL the other players at the table kept hitting until they couldn't hit anymore.

We proved that beyond all doubt in our Bahama Team Play Adventure. All 8 5 man teams won every shoe until they kicked us out of both casinos. How? Easy! 4 sacrifice players played $5 chips and hit out. The Big Player at first played black normally. He couldn't lose. No lows left for the dealer. She began breaking HALF the time. We all split the money afterwards. Lot's of it! Enough to pay our hotel, our meals our plane fare and still bring home a wad of cash. Now that's the kind of vacation I like! Maybe us members can get together for Bahamas TWO!


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