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I would consider it a favor if...


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Below, I'm going to copy a couple of posts from Baccarat Forums.

There is some benefit to all members here because my post below serves

as a short and concise overview of how we play. It's good for a where we

are at type of perspective.

I would consider it a personal favor if some of you who feel qualified would

go over and register at BF and reply to my post with whatever comment you

care to make in support of our forum here at BTC or in support of the way

we teach Baccarat.

But be careful not to get hooked over there. I consider it a useless forum

except that we get many new members from it. Try to be positive rather

than argumentative because that's about all they do over there is argue.

Post on this same thread - The game has been beat.

John

BaccaratForums Member Join Date: Oct 2009

Location: not sure

Posts: 103

Re: The game has been beat...

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Ellis

There is no such thing as a purely mechanical system that wins long term W/O betting a huge high risk progression. You can only win by playing the shoe at hand. QUOTE/

Ellis you occasionally make these statements which are simply not true.

"you can only win by playing the shoe at hand", this must invariably mean that each outcome is not truly random and previous results, i.e. the current trend has significance on the next outcome. This is not the game as I know it.

Your damn sure the Punto is going to win the next hand, all "personal" indicators have you betting Punto/Player, and you feel pretty confident, thinking "I told you so" or "I knew it" with the Player sitting on a natural eight, then the Banker pulls a six to go with the previously drawn three.

Hence the random and sometimes chaotic nature of the game, and more significantly the previous trend has no bearing on previous results.

The absence of something, does not prove it does not exist.

John

Ellis

BaccaratForums Member Join Date: Sep 2009

Real Name: E. Clifton Davis

Location: AR

Age: 69

Posts: 545

Re: The game has been beat...

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Well you are certainly partially right John. Some shoes simply do not have a playable trend. Nearly all shoes have their chaotic episodes. But that does not mean no shoe has a playable trend. I teach my students that their first chore upon entering a casino is to find a playable trend.

But a trend that is highly playable for us you might call random. And you would not be wrong at all.

For instance, lets take a table where P and B are running at ABOUT equal strength. By "equal" I mean that neither side is ever getting ahead by more than 5 or 6. That's a pretty wide margin. Such a shoe is usually not noticably choppy or streaky. You would certainly call that random. Right?

We would call that highly playable because net betting P vs B kills such a shoe W/O your bets getting higher than 4 or 5. So to us, that's a trend. Now suppose that shoe has a surprise 7 or more in a row. We have a defense for that. We'll actually make money on the 7 or more.

Another shoe you would call random has opposites and repeats running about equal strength. We will kill that shoe just as easily by net betting opposites vs repeats.

Another table you would call random might have TB4L plays running about equal strength to OTB4L plays. We will kill that table the same way except we are net betting TB4L vs OTB4L.

The same is true of the time before the time before last. We call that "double TB4L".

On the other hand, a table might be high in straight runs. You would call that streaky. We call it straight runs following straight runs and kill it playing RD1 which is designed for that shoe type.

Maybe RD1 is winning about half the plays. You would call that random. We play RD1n which is net betting RD1 vs the opposite of RD1 and kill such a shoe. By "kill", I mean we go for about 20 units betting U1D2 M2. Our highest bet is usually 4 or 5 and sometimes 6. Our Player Advantage is usually double digit. But we have defenses for virtually every eventuality.

Another table might be high in straight runs with sporadic (single)1's. You would call that streaky also. We'll play F2 or F3 and kill that table. How do we decide between F2 and F3? Simple: Which is higher: twos or 3 or mores?

Another table might be high in straight and ZZ runs. You'd call that streaky. We call it TB4L favorable. But we have a defense for the TTs (terrible twos) the nemisis of TB4L.

While you are calling a table streaky, we are asking what kind of streaky shoe is it TB4L, RD1, F2, or F3?

While you are calling a shoe choppy, we are asking what kind of chop is it? Bet opposites? OTB4L? System 40? Net bet P vs B?

What you call "random" we call Neutral. There is a best net bet system for every kind of "random" shoe.

That's just a few.

Are we always right? Hell no, esp on the first shoe of the day. I mentioned before, I end up changing systems mid shoe in about 1 out of 12 shoes.

There are whole other follow the shoe approaches I teach like SAP, New Sap and SKOR, all 2Hi approaches that require no table selection. But I personally favor the selction systems because they make more money and are easier to play. Plus, I've been selecting systems for 30 years so I know a thing or two about it.

That gives you some idea of generally how we play but not much. We take advantage of the fact that nearly all shoes have playable trends. We are always looking for the strongest. Does that mean shoes are not random? Yes, at least in a certain sense.

Look, I never said it was easy. It's not. It's a lot of study and practice but eventually most students see the light and start winning consistently. Several have posted their results here only to get ridiculed which quickly stops other students from posting on this forum. But they ALL post on my forum - the good and the bad. But eventually the bad turns good for nearly all. A very small few are simply unteachable or lack devotion. But my retention rate is VERY HIGH. That's how I measure my success rate. And I consider myself highly successful.

My students consider my forum the very best there is. On the other hand this forum has a horrible reputation and the horrible retention rate to match in spite of the fact that people can stay here for free. I have many 5 to 20 year members. You could count the 5 year members on this forum on one hand. Why do you suppose that is? BF is like the Jerry Springer forum. All fight and no substance. Sorry but that's the way it is.

But its not about who has the best forum, is it? It's about who has the most winning Baccarat players. I think we both know the answer to that.

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