Maverick restored

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Mark’s Maverick Master Manual – April 20, 2010

“Baccarat is just like life. People over-estimate how much they can accomplish in one year and under-estimate what they can accomplish in ten years. In Baccarat, most people over-estimate how much money they can make in one shoe, and they under-estimate how much money they can make in ten shoes.â€

This is why the 1%, who actually win in baccarat, have a plan and stick to it. This is the plan I’ve been sticking to. It’s made me 1,000+ units over the last 2 weeks. I won 140 units in the last 4 shoes. Its win rate is practically 100% per session.

This is not a mechanical bet placement and bet progression system. It is a whole lot more than that. However, this is how I would play pretty much 90% mechanical. Maverick is a winning approach to baccarat.

My philosophy behind Maverick is simple. "Don't go elephant hunting with a bb gun. You can't kill one with it and even if you did, you couldn't eat the whole thing anyway. Take a machine gun and hunt a cow instead. It’s a lot easier, and they taste better." Set yourself up to win. If you're not setting yourself up to win, you’re setting yourself up to lose.

If you follow my Maverick Formula for Success, you'll find it very hard to lose. Here it is.

1. Goal. Have a SPECIFIC amount of money you want to make for your session goal.

If you can't tell me EXACTLY how much money you want to make per session, then in my humble opinion you shouldn't even be playing, and please don't tell me that your goal is "To make as much money as I can before I go home." Those are the people that always go home broke. Why? Well if you don't know how much money you want to win per session, how can you set yourself up to win?

Let me be specific. If you don't know how much money you want to win per session, how do you know: 1) How much of a bankroll you need? 2) What system to play? 3) What progression to play? 4) When is the right time to walk away? You cannot win consistently unless you can answer all four of those questions before you even start to play.

I know exactly how much of a bankroll I need and what progression to play, so that Maverick will win my session goal without fail.

2. Bankroll: Hope for the best, but plan for the worst. Expect that you will lose 7 hands in a row, once every shoe. Expect it, so you can plan and be ready for it. Here is what you do. Calculate so that using the progression you feel comfortable with, add up how many units you would lose if you lost 7 bets in a row. Take that number and multiply by 5. That should be your minimum bankroll. Now if you lose 7 in a row, you are still very much in the game. Coming back is no sweat. Now, if you don't lose 7 in a row, you are just that much more ahead of the game.

I usually have with me at least 100 units bankroll when I play. This is the safest way to play. My base unit bet is 1% of my bankroll. With that, I can easily make 10% of my bankroll.

3. First Goal: If you are new or want to start from scratch: Your very first goal should be to make 10% of your bank roll per session. (Not per shoe) Do that for at least 10 sessions.

4. Ultimate Bankroll Goal: This amount should be so that if you make 10% of your bankroll in one shoe, it would equal your specific $money session goal.

5. Exit Strategy: Once you make your session goal, you leave. No exceptions.

If you stick to this, you will find that it’s just like hunting a cow with a machine gun. Let me tell you, filet mignon sure tastes better when they're paying for it.

Score Card:

I used the casino’s card, I just turned the casino's score card vertical, marked it for every 20 plays. See attached sample score cards and links. I like using the long vertical to reduce the number of column switches where it is easy to make mistakes.

BET PROGRESSIONS (units bet)

LEVEL 1

Starting off. This is the progression I used when I started my first shoe. I stuck with it until I won 4 straight shoes and accumulated more ammunition. I started with $300 in green or 12 units. You must be able to survive 7 losing bets in a row, and still be able to play. If you can’t, that means you are betting to big units, don’t have a large enough bank roll, or both. Here it is:

1 2 1 1 2 3 4. After a win, I always went back to 1. The reason will become apparent when I go through system play below. In fact, I still use this progression at the start of a shoe if I'm playing blind.

LEVEL 2

After winning 4 straight shoes (or if you have a 40-50 unit bankroll): I was up 40 units net, plus I had my original bank roll of 12 units. I kept the same progression but added the M2 or mandatory 2.

So, bet 1, (win or lose go to) 2. Win or lose this 2 bet, go back to 1. If I lose the 1 bet and the 2 bet, I go back down to 1. If I lost that 1 also, (so three losses in a row), I continued at 1. If I lost that bet, then the next bet would be a 2. If I lost that, then a 3 bet, then if I lost that I would bet 4. If you win the 4, drop down to 2.

If you lose the 4 unit bet continue up to to 5 on the very next play. If you win that 5 unit bet, then drop down to 3. If you win, drop down to 1 and continue with normal progression.

***Caveat*** If you find yourself winning the 1 and losing the 2, restart your progression. Remember you should be winning 'every other bet' in the Zig Zag pattern, and the 22 Terrible Two's so adjust your '2 unit' bet accordingly. That is the only down side to playing this conservative progression with the M2 or mandatory 2.

LEVEL 3

After winning the next 4 shoes, (or ONLY if you have a 100 unit bank roll): I was up a little over 100 units, so I switched to: U1D2 M2. I never really had a cap. Why? Because I was playing with all their money. What I did do on many occasions, was after 2 losses in a row, I stopped betting and performed the Maverick Evaluation. See below.

*Pressing*:

After I won a 1, 2, 1, 2… I went to 3, using the ladder progression:

So you win 1,2,1,2 then you go to 3. Win the 3, then you go to 235, 358 etc. This helps me exploit the runs of 5 or more when I got them, betting only higher units with ‘their’ money. As soon as I lost, I went back to the original U1D2M2 starting at 1.

MONEY MANAGEMENT:

In the beginning, once I hit +10 units, I flat betted 1 unit until I got to +15. Then I continued with U1D2 M2. This helped protect my winnings and prevented me from losing a quick six units while I accumulated a bigger bank roll. Then, when I got to +15, I’d never make a bet that would take me below +10 net. I did the same thing once I hit +20.

Once I accumulated 100 units, I just forged on ahead. By then, I had more than enough faith that the systems as well as my system selection would pull through.

Once I hit my Session Goal, I went home!

SAP CHART (Self Adjusting Progression)

SAP events are nothing more than a running count of 1’s in a rows, 2’s in a rows, 3’s in a rows and 4+’s in a row. Recognize that we don’t know how long an event will be until the event ends with a circle on the opposite side. We must wait for this confirming opposite before making the events entry in our “SAP Chartâ€. Recognize that for every opposite (a circle on the opposite side of the prior circle) we have a SAP Chart entry. To properly weight our event totals, 1’s are counted as 1 each, 2’s are counted as 2 each, 3’s are counted as 4 each, and 4 and mores are counted as 4 each.

The SAP Chart is based on the normal frequency of events in a shoe. We are trying to exploit the abnormalities in the shoe. The only way to know what is abnormal; we need to know what is normal. Below is the normal occurrence of events as E. Clifton Davis originally posted it. He calls it the 50% rule.

8 decks = 72 hands avg. not counting ties. Half will be opposites, half repeats. 72 hands create 36 events. Half of the EVENTS are 1's giving you:

18 - 1s = 18 hands

9 - 2s = 18 hands

4.5- 3s = 13.5 hands

2.25 - 4s = 9 hands

2.25 - 5s+ = 13.5 hands

This is correct and this is what we based our weighting on. Or you could say it this way:

1 every 4 hands = 72/4 = 18 events

2 every 8 hands = 72/8 = 9 events

3 every 16 hands = 72/16 = 4.5 events

4+ every 16 hands = 72/16 = 4.5 events = 36 events total.

END QUOTE

SYSTEMS USED: RD1-H and F2 (pay attention to when I switch and why)

RD1-Hybrid (RD1-H) Rules for RD1 are even simpler.

1. Always bet repeats UNLESS you see a ‘1 in-a- row.’

2. If you see a ‘1 in-a-row’ then bet straight down, betting it will ZZ back. If not, bet repeat again.

F-Series F2/F3:

You simply follow under 2-in-a-row. You bet under the first 2 in-a-row and stay on that side until the other side has a run of 2. Then you follow that 2.

Remember: when we are on F2, the FIRST time we see a 2 on the other side, we switch sides and follow that 2. After we switch, we allow 3 plays on that side before changing sides. After we have allowed 3 plays on that side, we now go back to "follow the 2". So, now when we see a 2 on the other side, we follow that 2 again, and apply "once you switch sides, you must bet 3 times before changing again" This provides protected from the TTs.

GAME START

Conservative: Wait out the first 8 plays while charting everything. This will give you time to see how the new shoe develops. Start with whatever system the shoe is telling you, either RD1-H or F-Series, based on the Maverick Evaluation. (RD1-H chart/disparity, the Player/Banker disparity, SAP chart, OTB4L/TB4L circles)

Aggressive: Wait out the first 3 plays. Start with RD1-H UNLESS the shoe begins with a ZZZ. THEN start with F2 under the last winning play until you see a 4 in a row, OR upon your 3rd event with no 1's. Then switch to RD1-H.

I am usually starting off in RD1-H mode. However, if the first 8 plays are choppy and if there have been no 4s in those first 8 plays, I usually start with F2.

That’s it. After two losses in a row, do a quick Maverick Evaluation of the last 7 plays, but that does NOT mean you have to switch systems yet.

Stay with RD1-H until you see that RD1-H is struggling. What does that mean?

1) There have been no 4+'s in say 7 plays. (This is a good leading indicator and I usually switch when I see this)

2) If you find yourself winning one bet, losing two, winning one, losing two, winning one, losing three etc.

3) Say you lost 4 in a row. (Obvious) Which means you just ran into a 1-2.

4) Your score keeps fluctuating between ranges of 3-4 units.

When I saw any of those, I switched to F series. Usually, I play F2, but F3 if 2's are exceptionally higher.

What side to start on? The 'mechanical' way is usually under the last decision that won. However, I consider these before I bet:

MAVERICK EVALUATION CHECK LIST: (Use after every 7 plays, AND after two losses in a row.)

1) What has won the majority of the last 7 plays? RD1-H or F Series? (Are there more Blue Dots or Red Dots? More Red, almost always means F2)

2) Disparity - both Player/Banker & Blue/Red RD1-H chart.

3) Opposite of where RD1-H says to bet (anti-Rd1)

4) Under the last side that won.

5) The last side where there was either a 2 or 3 in a row.

6) The side that is favoring either the Red circles (OTB4L) or the blue circles (TB4L) in the last 7 plays.

7) Last but NOT least is your SAP Chart.

Triggers: The main signal is a 1-2-1 unconfirmed. (1 2) Remember that whenever you see a '1-2-1 unconfirmed’, that could very well be a signal that the shoe could very well start to get ugly, so it can't hurt to wait until the shoe settles down to something you recognize. Or you can continue based on the Maverick Evaluation.

1. If you are in RD1-H mode, and see a 121 unconfirmed, this means you just lost four in-a-row. If the evaluation point to stay in RD1-H mode, bet that it would bet repeat and continue in that it will continue into a 122 Or just wait it out. A 122 signals to me that I stay in RD1-H mode until you lose two-in-a-row.

2. If you are in F-series and see a 121 unconfirmed, that confirms its F-Series on the side with the 2. This is perfect if you are already in F-Series mode. If you are stay, on that side of course and continue with F2.

When to switch back to RD1-H?

Once I saw a 4 in a row, I tried going back to RD1-H. Or as soon as I saw three events in a row with no 1's, I immediately went to RD1-H. If those sporadic 1's came back, I went right back to Fseries. I usually give RD1H 2 bets.

Now say you lose 4-in-a-row. Ultimate Signal:

Now you don’t know where to re-enter the shoe. You are looking for disparity in something, either RD1H/Anti-RD1H, Player/Banker, Otb4l/Tb4l circles. Would RD1H or F2 have won more in the last few events? Look for something.

IMPORTANT ** This will save you a lot of money. What if there is no clear indication? What if there is no disparity? IF there is no clear indicator there or its really close, what do you do? WAIT. Take a timeout until something shows itself!

Wait for the time where all systems point to the same side. Wait to place your bet where the leading indicators are pointing to. When the RD1-H chart, F2, Player/Banker count all point to the same side. Re-enter there. See Sample Shoe Play 61. It is marked with a blue asterisk. *

SAMPLE SHOE:

Played live, with real money at Bet Phoenix on April 13, 2010 from around 8:00am ending at 9:00am. I purposely picked this shoe because it was a hard shoe. It had six (1 2) patterns that make this shoe difficult to play. Also they were alternating on what side they landed making it even more difficult to play, but MAVERICK handled it very well. Notice, there are no exceptionally long runs of any kind.

Legend

Column 1= Play# / Reason for bet

W = Wait

RH = RD1-H bet

F = F Series bet

A = Anti-RD1 bet

* = RD1-H/F/P/B bet

Columns 2 & 3 = My RD1/H Chart. Instead of Blue dots or Red dots, I have been writing in a running count of the RD1/H wins and losses in either blue or red numbers. This way it’s easier for me to see the disparity between the two.

W= RD1-H win count column

L = RD1-L loss count column

The rest should be self-explanatory and color-coded. Player, Bank, Score. Then SAP Chart, then The Player/Banker running count. I also used Red Circles for OTB4L and Blue Circles for TB4L.

Game Notes:

Progression: U1D2 M2, pausing when needed.

Play by Play

Plays 1-8 – wait out the first 8 plays. This is because you don't know what color or anything the first play is, and this will give you time to see how the new shoe develops.

Don't worry, you won't be giving up much unless the shoe starts off with a 8 in a row, and that’s rare anyway. You're better off saving yourself from a bad shoe start, and not play blind.

After 8 plays or 7 'dots' or counts on your scorecard, you have a much better idea what system and where to start. Who knows? You very might be starting in F series or Anti-RD1 depending what you see. Look for disparity or lack of disparity in the RD1-H chart and the Player/Banker. I usually start with RD1-H as it beats everything except a 1212 on the same side.

Play 9 – Started with RD1-H

Play 21-24 – notice we hit our first 12 pattern. Blue RDH chart shows higher disparity as well as the Player count higher disparity, so on Play 24, I stick with the RD1-H system and bet repeat.

Play 27-32 – Same as above.

Play 50-54 Hit the 12 pattern again, but this time RD1-H lost on play 54 giving me 4 losses in a row. So now I wait for the ultimate signal to reneter. Look where the higher disparity is in both the RD1-H chart and in the Player/Banker count. Then wait for when all systems point to the same side. Wait for the bet where RD1-H, F2, Rd1-H count and Player/Banker count all point to the same side. Then re-enter there.

Play 55 - waited to see if Player would win, confirming to be in F2 mode, but it lost so I still waited out net play as well.

Play 56 - waiting to see if Banker would win, signaling RD1-H. It did win, but because we just lost 4 in a row, not sure if it will be another '2' so waiting again for clear signal or highest probability bet.

Play 55-60 All waiting out for clear signal.

Play 61 – Here everything has lined up, so I bet 5 units, the next up in the progression on Player. Why? This is highest probability for a win.

a) RD1-H Wins/count (Blue) are at 32 and higher than the Loss/count 27 (Red) – pointing to PLAYER

F2 – player has just won two-in-a-row - F2 pointing to PLAYER

c) Player/Banker disparity – Players are at 34, higher disparity than the Bankers 26 – pointing to PLAYER

d) Last 7 plays - There are more Blue Circles/TB4L (4) versus Red Circles/OTB4L (3) - pointing to PLAYER

e) Last 7 plays - There are more Blue wins (4) vs Red wins (3) - pointing to PLAYER

f) Last 7 plays - F2 would be the clear winner - pointing to PLAYER.

"]Shoe ended at +21. Not bad for a tough shoe.