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Flat Betting vs. Progressive Betting by Ellis


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First, several factors must be weighed to evaluate both sides of this question:

Goal achievement success rate

Offensive play strategy

Defensive play strategy

Let's start by putting this into an apples vs apples side by side comparison:

Let's establish a common goal of $2000.

The Flat Bettor:

Realistically the flat bettor must bet in $1000 units. The top goal of most flat bettors is 2 units. To achieve this goal they must win two more bets than they lose at some point. That is a fairly achievable goal for a flat bettor who is also a good player but, on a bad day he can retreat to: 1 unit, 0 units, -1 unit, -2 units or even -3 units. Certainly no lower than that. Even the -3 is questionable because that puts him in a tough starting position for his next attempt. Now to achieve his $2000 goal he must win 5 more bets than he loses.

The Progressive Bettor:

To achieve the same $2000 goal the progressive bettor need bet only $100 units. I'm saying that a 20 unit goal for a progressive bettor is approximently equivalent to a 2 unit goal for a flat bettor.

If you apply the same standard, win 2 more bets than you lose, this represents 2 units for the fat bettor. When a progressive bettor wins 2 more bets than he loses he can easily be at +20 units.

For instance, when an U1D2 progressive bettor wins every other bet for 40 bets he has achieved his +20 unit goal but he has only won half his bets. The flat better hasn't achieved anything under those same circumstances but still owes commission.

Perhaps you think that is somewhat unrealistic. OK lets get more realistic.

The U1D2 bettor can lose a bet and win a bet and he's at +1.

The flat bettor is at 0.

The U1D2 bettor can lose 2 bets and win a bet and he's even.

The flat bettor is down $1000.

The U1D2 bettor can lose 3 bets and win a bet and he's down $200.

The flat bettor is down $2000.

The U1D2 Bettor can LLLWW and he's even, even though he's 1 bet down.

The flat bettor is down $1000.

The U1D2 Bettor can LLLLWW and he's down $200.

The Flat bettor is down $2000.

The U1D2 bettor's ABS (avg bet size) is about $200.

The flat bettor's ABS is $1000.

The U1D2 bettor's max exposure is -8 units or $800

The flat bettor's max exposure is -3 units or $3000.

On a bad day the progressive bettor has a retreat plan. He can reduce his prog again and again all the down to a 012.

The flat bettor has no place to retreat to. It's kill or get killed.

On a good day the Progressive bettor can advance to the 345 loop and kick ass and make double his goal.

The flat bettor can leave earlier with his 2 units.

I think the biggest advantage a player has is the ability to dial aggression up or down according to conditions - to match aggression to the conditions at hand.

The flat bettor has only one mode win or lose.

Now, when you compare apples to apples, is flat betting really more conservative?

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