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I read with great interest, the sample you made available of NBJ and became quite excited. I have been arguing for years with people about card 'randomization' so it was relieving and refreshing to discover that I have not been insane all this time.

Where I live (Canadian west coast), we have a few differences in the way Blackjack is dealt and played.

The first, is auto-shufflers. All our casinos have switched to 'continuous' shuffle machines, meaning that every TWO rounds of play, the cards are plucked out of the discard stack and added to the shuffler, where they are re-shuffled.

(busted hands and blackjacks are added to the discard pile, as they are played out, in order from first base)

Most people believe that these machines are the cause of their losing play and I have to admit, at first I was concerned that they might be giving the house a bigger edge.

But after looking at the math, I realized three things:

First, the odds are identical to a complete shuffle, EVERY time the cards are added back to the shoe and reshuffled, which actually reduces the house edge slightly, because all the cards are still in play.

Second, the casinos make more money with them because of two things; people still play poorly AND they see many more hands per hour, since they don't have to stop the game while the dealer shuffles.

In addition, people are less likely to change tables or simply walk away, as there are no breaks in play (I like to tease new players by asking them to wait for the end of the shoe).

The third thing was that at first, I thought the new shufflers were designed to thwart card counting, but then I realized that this was only a secondary benefit to the other, more profitable reasons for switching.

There are two other major differences here.

The first is that the shoes are made up of 5 decks, with NO cut card and obviously no end-of-shoe.

The other, is that there is no dealer 'down' card that we have to 'guess' at, as the dealer's first card is dealt face-up and they do not take another card until the table has played out.

This means we not only get the dealer's 'down' card information up-front, but we also have some control over what cards the dealer is YET to receive. Try explaining that concept to someone who believes in 'RANDOM' card delivery!

I'm very excited about the concepts you teach in NBJ and WCB and I suspect they will work, even in a continuously shuffled shoe, but I wanted your opinion and/or thoughts on the matter, before getting ahead of myself.

Incidentally, we have 100:1 bet ratios on most lower tables ($5 - $500) and 40:1 on the $25 and up tables.

I look forward to your thoughts and comments.

Rob

PS: Baccarat is my main game as I have 65% win advantage (which equates to 9 units per shoe, flat-betting, since I actually bet only 56% of the hands dealt). I enjoy Blackjack on occasion, as a change of pace, but am often frustrated by the play of others. I've never understood how people will study a company for months before investing a dime in their stock, but will throw thousands of dollars at a game they know nothing about.

Edited by Ellis

No one lives long enough to get rich slowly

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  • 2 weeks later...

First, I must apologize for my late reply. I answered your post when you wrote it but didn't notice until recently that my reply got lost.

Second, it is obvious to me that you have a keen mind and excellent powers of observation. With most casino goers such observations go right over their heads.

I read with great interest, the sample you made available of NBJ and became quite excited. I have been arguing for years with people about card 'randomization' so it was relieving and refreshing to discover that I have not been insane all this time.

I have been arguing the non radomness of cards for 30 years but arguing is mostly useless. The traditional card counting world together with the casinos have brain washed players for years into believing that the cards are random. The card counting gurus MUST do this because Basic Strategy, their backbone, ONLY works in random cards. Yet it is tragically easy to prove clumping to yourself by simply counting highs following highs and lows following lows out of the dealer shoe. But players simply refuse to do this. They would rather have blind loyalty to their card counting guru scammers. They don't want to have their bubble burst by true facts.

The FACT is that the greater the number of decks and the greater the number of players and the longer the cards are played the more they will clump. Cards become so clumped in a Saturday night 8 deck game that it becomes totally obvious to even the most casual of observers. Players watch 20 tens come out of the dealer shoe back to back and don't even raise an eyebrow. They have no clue that their game just became unbeatable just as surely as if the dealer threw 20 tens on the floor before dealing the first hand. They play blindly on not even noticing that the dealer is breaking one out of ten hands rather than the normal, random cards, 1 out of 4. They have no clue that they have already lost!

Where I live (Canadian west coast), we have a few differences in the way Blackjack is dealt and played.

The first, is auto-shufflers. All our casinos have switched to 'continuous' shuffle machines, meaning that every TWO rounds of play, the cards are plucked out of the discard stack and added to the shuffler, where they are re-shuffled.

(busted hands and blackjacks are added to the discard pile, as they are played out, in order from first base)

Think about that! This is part of what causes clumping in the first place. ALL casinos pick up all the mostly low break cards first and put them in the discard rack in one big low card clump. THEN they pick up the mostly high non break cards and place a high card clump in the rack. There is absolutely NO reason to do this except to cause clumping. The casinos have known this and done this for more than 50 years. Why? Because they know clumping destroys Basic Stategy AND causes the dealer to break less. She can't break on all lows or on all highs. But neither can you. That should be your first clue in how to beat clumped cards. Sure, the casino party line is we pick up the break cards first so dealers won't pay a broke hand. BULL! You never saw a dealer pay a broke hand in your life. BUT, IF she always picked up ALL the cards in turn, she could settle any dispute at the table by simply dealing back the cards in reverse order. So casinos pay a high price to pick up the break cards first BUT it is worth it.

All BJ books, except mine, say don't play new cards for the first 2 hours. WRONG! New cards are the most random and the BEST cards you are going to see all day long. Basic Strategy actually beats random cards. This is exactly why casinos CAN'T have random cards.

Most people believe that these machines are the cause of their losing play and I have to admit, at first I was concerned that they might be giving the house a bigger edge.

But after looking at the math, I realized three things:

First, the odds are identical to a complete shuffle, EVERY time the cards are added back to the shoe and reshuffled, which actually reduces the house edge slightly, because all the cards are still in play.

Second, the casinos make more money with them because of two things; people still play poorly AND they see many more hands per hour, since they don't have to stop the game while the dealer shuffles.

In addition, people are less likely to change tables or simply walk away, as there are no breaks in play (I like to tease new players by asking them to wait for the end of the shoe).

The third thing was that at first, I thought the new shufflers were designed to thwart card counting, but then I realized that this was only a secondary benefit to the other, more profitable reasons for switching.

There are two other major differences here.

The first is that the shoes are made up of 5 decks, with NO cut card and obviously no end-of-shoe.

Correct, continuous shufflers destroy any chance the card counter ever might have had but clumping is still maintained so they mean little to the NBJ player.

The other, is that there is no dealer 'down' card that we have to 'guess' at, as the dealer's first card is dealt face-up and they do not take another card until the table has played out.

This means we not only get the dealer's 'down' card information up-front, but we also have some control over what cards the dealer is YET to receive. Try explaining that concept to someone who believes in 'RANDOM' card delivery!

Ha, right! We call that European BJ. It is a slight disadvantage to the 3rd base player's hole card reading but, right again, it gives the 3rd base player more control over the dealer's hole card. But it is an advantage to the NBJ First Base player and helps him predict when he is most likely to get a first card ten.

I'm very excited about the concepts you teach in NBJ and WCB and I suspect they will work, even in a continuously shuffled shoe, but I wanted your opinion and/or thoughts on the matter, before getting ahead of myself.

A player with your keen power of observation will be quick to pick up the concepts of NBJ /WCB and it will make a lot of sense to you right off the bat.

Incidentally, we have 100:1 bet ratios on most lower tables ($5 - $500) and 40:1 on the $25 and up tables.

Far more than enough spread for our purposes.

I look forward to your thoughts and comments.

Rob

And I look forward to your becomming a top NBJ player!

PS: Baccarat is my main game as I have 65% win advantage (which equates to 9 units per shoe, flat-betting, since I actually bet only 56% of the hands dealt). I enjoy Blackjack on occasion, as a change of pace, but am often frustrated by the play of others. I've never understood how people will study a company for months before investing a dime in their stock, but will throw thousands of dollars at a game they know nothing about.

We would be most happy to have you join the BTC private Baccarat forum. You can both learn a lot and contribute a lot!

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It's so interesting information for me! Thank you!!!

Right lilasmit! There is far more going on in the game of BJ than the average player or the card counter realizes. In a way, the game is fixed. If it weren't, all Basic Strategy players would win. Of course the casinos cannot allow THAT so they render the game non random through the card pick up. Then carefully designed hand shuffles and shuffle machines preserve and even increase clumping. Basic Strategy also promotes clumping because it tends to hit when highs are running and stand when lows are running. So it augments clumping rather than breaking clumps up. Yes, the game is fixed BUT a player who understands how its fixed can use that same non randomness to his advantage. For instance, a perfect Basic Strategy player has a hands won rate of only 43%. But an NBJ player can easily hit 50% or better. Who do you think stands the better chance of winning???

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Thanks for the response. I'm encouraged to learn that you confirmed my suspicions about the auto-shufflers.

You mention only the first base and anchor positions, so I'm wondering if it wouldn't make sense to have a team of NBJ players, taking the whole table, or in the alternative, playing all 7 squares, solo?

I'm just thinking that if everyone at the table has this information and is taking advantage of it as a team, everyone wins, or do we want 'basic' players on the table, to keep the advantage on first and third base?

No one lives long enough to get rich slowly

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Thanks for the response. I'm encouraged to learn that you confirmed my suspicions about the auto-shufflers.

You mention only the first base and anchor positions, so I'm wondering if it wouldn't make sense to have a team of NBJ players, taking the whole table, or in the alternative, playing all 7 squares, solo?

I'm just thinking that if everyone at the table has this information and is taking advantage of it as a team, everyone wins, or do we want 'basic' players on the table, to keep the advantage on first and third base?

For individual play 1st base is the best position for NBJ First Base play (clumped cards). (Your cards are the least like the dealer's.) For random cards NBJ Third Base play is best from 3rd base. (Your cards are most like the dealer's). In fact, once you get to the 146 prog from third base with random cards, the NBJ player is virtually unstoppable with 4 or fewer players.

But head to head play is best because it randomizes the cards. The NBJ player can start with NBJ Third Base play until the cards are randomized and then slip into NBJ First Base play all from the same third base seat.

Team NBJ is good but there is a better way to play team BJ. I organized a 6 day trip for 40 of us to play the two casinos at Nassau, Bahamas. We stayed right on the ocean at Divi Divi. We divided into 8 5 man (or woman) teams. We had a planning class every morning over breakfast at the pool. Then we loaded into a bus for one of the two casinos where I had all our other meals arranged.

Each team had a team leader who played black at First Base. The other 4 players were sacrifice players who played $5 units unless they were winning. In that case they advanced to green.

The sacrifice players were instructed to keep hitting until there was a ten then stop regardless of their score. They even hit 17 if lows were still running. This saved the tens for the dealer and forced her break rate to 50%. But it also fed tens to the big player at first base. We divied up the money afterwards.

We KILLED both casinos and managed to get barred from both. But not before all 40 had won enough money to pay for their entire trip including airfare with lots left over. We lived like kings. For all of us it was the very best time of our lives.

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