About runs and other casino orchestration:

[Guest]

By the time I was 6 years old I could already play Solitaire and most of the other common card games. My mother taught me.

By the time I was 12 I was already dreaming of beating Las Vegas and could shuffle cards like a pro.

By the time I was 18 I could beat all of my friends at BJ.

By that time I was getting heavy into shuffle technology. I had read somewhere that 7 shuffles randomizes a deck of cards so I always used 7 shuffles.

I soon learned that this old wives tale was completely wrong. 7 shuffles, no matter how perfect the entertwine, won't even come close to randomizing a deck of cards and I proved this to myself beyond all doubt.

A Canadian named Einstein (not Albert) claimed, after much study, that a single deck of cards took 25 shuffles to achieve true randomness. I knew this to be true as soon as I read it.

Computer scientists laughed at this and again confirmed it only took 7 shuffles. This caused me to lose all faith in computer scientists when it came to anything about cards or card games such as BJ. They have since completely confirmed my opinion of them. Einstein was much closer to the truth.

How did I know this for sure? The same way you can prove it to yourself.

Play Solitaire with a single deck of cards using 7 good shuffles between games. You will soon see that you play those cards to an unbeatable condition. The cards get to a condition where you can't even come close to winning a single game no matter your skill level. You have to shuffle the cards 25 times before you can win again. Try this and you'll soon see for yourself.

Another way to get the cards to a playable condition is to play head to head BJ with them. This also randomizes the cards and after a few BJ games you can win at Solitaire again. I have done this enough times to know for absolute certainty.

Computer scientists deal with what they think should be. I deal with what IS. They need to visit real casinos and play for real money. They would soon change their minds about everything to do with a deck of cards as well as the game of BJ. There is the make believe computer world, but then there is the real world. Night and day! BTW, the traditional BJ card counting world is run by computer scientists. What happens on their computers is a far cry from what ACTUALLY happens in a casino. If you want to beat casinos, the first thing you have to do is live in the real world.

Which brings us to Baccarat runs:

Baccarat was introduced in Atlantic City in the late 80's. We only had big Bac - with 14 player tables. Mini Bac and shuffle machines had yet to be invented. Players did not tear up the cards so, at first, the same 8 decks were used all day.

Every casino used exactly the same standard Baccarat shuffle: First they would take the cut off cards from the discard shoe and fan them through the entire shoe. Then they went through a complete standard shuffle TWICE. Then they were offered to a player to cut. Shuffle technology novices, which was just about everybody in those days, including the casinos, would swear on a Bible that those cards HAD to be random. I knew different. They could just as well skip the shuffle altogether. Ha, we saw 20 in a rows and longer runs several times a day, sometimes 2 in the same shoe! Players would get killed because nobody could believe that runs could just keep on going like that and so frequently.

But we soon wised up and many of us started betting ON the runs, some of us with up as you win Fibonaci progressions. Many of us were enjoying huge wins on the 20+ in a rows. I've seen 26 many times but never more. The casinos had to react or drop the game.

Meanwhile casino shuffle technology raised its ugly head in BJ. The casinos went from a single standard BJ shuffle to 8 standard shuffles. Casino per capita BJ profits went from 6% to 15%. Today the casinos have a virtually infinite number of standard BJ shuffles. They simply watch which shuffles produce the greatest casino profits at various times of day and on which days of the week.

Noting their success with shuffle technology in BJ, they said why not Baccarat??? Ha, the runs disappeared overnight. Casino Baccarat profits went fron 3% of the drop to 26% of the drop. I haven't seen a 20 in a row since 1995. Neither has anyone else. I used to see them every day.

Now here is what is important to glean out of all this:

When 20 in a rows were profitable for the casino, we saw them every day.

But as soon as the casinos started losing on 20s, we never saw them again.

BUT we still see 20 tens in a row out of the dealer shoe in BJ. The odds against that are astronomically higher than the odds of 20 Banks. But we see them anyway.

So why do we see 20 tens? Because they are highly favorable to the casino. They cancel 20 of the player's most valuable cards right out of the game as sure as if they were thrown on the floor. (Short decking)

Yet all over the internet we see the incredibly naive statement: "Casinos would never cheat because they would lose their license." Ha, now there's a player lining up to be a loser.

So, how can we take advantage of all this???

Casinos that cater to mostly beginner players, Vacation casinos, some neighborhood casinos, some small island casinos, cruise ships, we are likely to see more long Baccarat runs because the casino still profits from them. Once we verify this, we are best to stay ON all runs until we lose, once the 3 NOR systems puts us on a run. Such casinos are likely to favor F.

But if you play where the pros play and have verified that long runs simply aren't happening, don't stay on them. Play by the NOR rules. Get OFF a run after 2 bets in Mode 2 and 1 bet in Mode 3, at least until that proves wrong in your shoe at hand.

In BJ, if you see 20 tens in a row or even 10, get out of there. You can't beat that game. It's rigged.

OK, that's my word to the wise for today. And when somebody tells you casinos don't cheat, just smile and be polite.

Edited June 30, 2012 by Guest