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System 40 - Going back in time

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"System 40‏



To Ellis@beatthecasino.com

Hi Ellis,

I was reading the your system 40 on the internet. I must say I admire your dedication, insight and experience of the game. I had a couple of questions in relation to the number labelled as 'the culprit'.

1. If the culprit was for example streaks of 3, does that mean all streaks of 1, 2 and 4 you will win, and on any streak of 3 you will lose?

2. Could you give me an example (just brief BBPB BPBP etc) of when you would bet, which side and what progression?

To make the culprit 3s, you bet 1 and 2 on opposites and 3 on repeats.

To make the culprit 4s you bet 1,2 and 3s on opposites and 4s on repeats.

To make the culprit 2s, you bet 1 on opposites and 2 on repeats.

Does the above statement of yours translate to the following examples if making '3' the culprit?

B : bet 1 unit on player

B : bet 2 units on player

B : bet 3 units on banker

and for making '2' the culprit

B : bet 1 unit on player

B : bet 2 units on banker

and for making '4' the culprit

B: bet 1 unit on player

B: bet 2 units on player

B: bet 3 units on player

B: bet 4 units on banker

So, in essence is the system based on finding a choppy shoe, betting the opposite always, except for on the number labelled 'the culprit'? And in determining the culprit, you look for the least occurring sequence out of 2,3 and 4 streaks?

Your time is much appreciated,



It is nice to work with such a quick study! All of your deductions are highly accurate.

But Jesse, you are 15 years behind the times.

So Jesse, first let me go back in time and answer your direct questions: Then perhaps I can update you a little.

"2. Could you give me an example (just brief BBPB BPBP etc) of when you would bet, which side and what progression?"

You would be deploying a 123 progression but in your examples you never get to the 3.

Assuming a shoe started with BBPB, you would not bet the first play, then:

You would bet 1 on P and lose, then:

2 on P and win, then:

1 on B and win

So after play 4 you are up 2 units. You are thus far playing to a 50% Player Advantage (ROI) Not bad considering that card counters strive for a 1/2% P.A. but never seem to quite make even that.

In your second example BPBP starting at play 2, you would bet 1,1,1 and win every bet. You would be up 3 at play 4 with a 100 % P.A.

Sounds good BUT:

As you have described it thus far System 40 would merely be a break even system when applied to all shoes.

BUT, as you correctly noted, when applied to the choppy half of all shoes and assuming some inevitable table selection mistakes, as thus far described, you can achieve about an 80% shoe win rate. Not bad considering the overall world win rate is considerably less than 50%. Otherwise, there would be no Baccarat.

In support of this rough 80% win rate statement let me add that S40 got its name by winning 40 consecutive shoes played at 5 major casinos in CT, AC and Vegas and S40 accomplished this feat through simple table selection. This was likely a world record when it was accomplished 20 years ago but since then that record has been beaten by several of my NOR students.

So OK, you are playing a break even system until you know what to make culprit in the shoe at hand, so:

Let me catch you up to 8 years ago:

"Events" are 1 in a rows, 2s 3s 4s etc.

Obviously, at least to anyone with your perception ability, you want to make the "least common" event the culprit in the shoe at hand.

8 years ago we developed a trick called "SAP" which measures every event in a shoe against its "weighted normal frequency of occurrence" and selects the optimum culprit for you very successfully. NOW you are suddenly playing a winning system overall. Yes, it sounds complex but it is actually fully accomplished in any shoe in split seconds.

Later NOR simplified the SAP process to what is called the 3rd bet rule. The 3rd bet rule correctly identifies the "LC" (least common event) (the culprit) automatically and in no time at all. Moreover, it automatically keeps up with culprit changes in the more complex shoes.

So yes, S40 is now a winning system overall.


And now I'll catch you fully up to date:

S40 has even a more spectacular win rate when NOR assigns it to only the 1/3 choppiest of all shoes.

For the middle third of all shoes (not choppy, but not streaky either) NOR assigns OTB4L, an even more spectacular system than 40 especially since casinos, through shuffle technology, strive for OTB4L shoes because they produce the highest casino win rate - except when we play. OTB4L kills "neutral" shoes and NOR players are nearly always the only winners at a neutral table. This accomplishment becomes even more spectacular given the fact that NOR players are nearly always also the lowest bettors at the table.

Which leaves the streakiest third of all shoes:

Yes, NOR could have safely selected the common 400 year old TB4L system.

But we didn't. We selected system F simply because it gets on runs faster no matter which side and it kills the very common Strong Side (SS) shoes that TB4L struggles with.

So now it all boils down to system selection, doesn't it. So do we simply look at the tote board and decide? While that would be very effective and is an excellent way to select a table, no, NOR deploys a purely mechanical process called the O/R count. O/R continuously points to the right system and takes judgement completely out of the picture. This comes in particularly handy during long play sessions when our judgement may be impaired by the long hours or Scotch or whatever.

Jesse, top players all over the world from Singapour to Maccau to Vegas to AC, including my competitors, declare that NOR is the best way this game can be played or ever will be played. All others pale in.....

Now, through study and practice you can achieve a 90 - 95% win rate.

You need to get yourself up to date!

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You might check out ImSpirit. Their blogger Virtuoid followed me around Atlantic City on a recent NOR trip and copied my every play. He made a lot of money. Then he posted a blow by blow report. I played 6 consecutive shoes at 4 tables in two casinos to a 26% Player Advantage. Undoubtedly a world record for 6 shoes. Such is the power of NOR in real time and in real life. I put my money where my mouth is. Virtuoid was trying to prove that Baccarat is unbeatable. He ended up proving the exact opposite.

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"From: Jesse Alexander

To: ellis_858@hotmail.com

Subject: RE: System 40

Date: Mon, 3 Sep 2012 16:02:45 +0000

Thankyou for your rapid reply Ellis.

With the 123 progression, it appears very safe. A win on the first two units obtains a win of 1 unit and a win on the third breaks even. And any hit of the culprit results in a loss of 6 units so as common sense would infer, and as I have read, this system wins or should win alot more hands than it loses. That is all common sense information. Can I give you an example now?





























So you decide to jump into the shoe at play 41 and hit PPP BBB with 3's clearly the culprit with the count being 15-14-4-16

so you are down 12 units

Is this purely a situation of bad luck and falls into the 20% bracket of losing shoes? Because after the PPP, '3' remained the clear culprit at a SAP count of 8. Do you cop the loss and repeat or do you change the progression or do something different now?

Also, I read somewhere about new cards resulting in 'choppier' shoes than old cards. Do you believe there is a difference? And in which direction, because the casino I play at is entirely touching card tables except for one cards up table.

Thankyou for your time again.


Jesse, again your deductions are sound for the rules you were playing by and correct, by those rules if you jumped in and immediately hit a 3,3 you would in fact be down -12.

However by the NOR S40 rules you would win on the 2nd 3 because the "3rd bet rule" would change the culprit to 4s immediately after the first 3.

But let me give you a few pointers.

This is a good shoe and was likely preceded by good shoes. It is also likely a morning or early afternoon shoe (when I prefer to play).

I would likely have started this shoe at play 2. You only need to wait if you have no table history but in any case you would not wait until play 40. Most of the guys wait until play 6 to 10. I'm usually in by play 4 if not play 2.

Why is it a good S40 shoe?

Because the OR count is marching upwards and because 1's are far above normal. Note that at play 24 your O/R count (Opposites vs Repeats) is already +7. Also normal 1's for 24 plays is 6. (Play#/4) your 1's are at 10.

I would not play this shoe with a simple 123 prog. It is too good a shoe.


A better bet, pun intended, would be 1234 U1D2 (up 1 when you lose, down 2 on a win.)

Also I would keep 3s the culprit. Note that the first run in this shoe is 4, then 3, then 4 , then 3. Don't even try to keep up with this. Just leave 3s your culprit because U1D2 doesn't care much what you make culprit and 3s is easiest and usually cheapest.

So, we always make our 3 bet OTR (on the run) If the 3 bet wins we stay OTR for 1 more bet ONLY But if the 2nd OTR bet loses (play 10) , the next time we only stay OTR for ONE bet (play 33) - tricks of the trade.

If you play your shoe that way starting with a 1 bet at play 2, you hit +20 at play 40 wherepon you get out because the 1234U1D2 only warrants a +20 stop win. You'll find that your highest bet was a single 4 at play 21.


But in a good shoe, your NOR manual will direct you to the 345 when you are seeing high 1s.

Why? Because it is less risky.

How could a 345 possibly be less risky than a 123???

Because when you lose a 123 you are 6 first bets down.

When you lose a 345 you are only 4 first bets down. Do you see that? Neat, eh?


But since 1's are high I would do both and play a 3456 U1D2 (your base and lowest bet is 3).

Making the same bet placements now you'll find you hit +30 already at play 34. You would definitely think about quitting but it is early in the shoe and you now have 30 more units. If you stay in, you'll see you break 40 (+41) at play 41 coincidentally. There you would DEFINITELY quit. Check our cash mgt.

OK, now you know a few more well tested tricks of the trade.

Perhaps now you can see why many NOR players paid for their manual the first day they played. It is all pure common sense as you have already noted. Hope to see you on the NOR forum soon.


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