Guest Posted September 2, 2012 Report Share Posted September 2, 2012 (edited) "System 40 9/01/12 JESSE ALEXANDER To Ellis@beatthecasino.comHi Ellis,I was reading the your system 40 on the internet. I must say I admire your dedication, insight and experience of the game. I had a couple of questions in relation to the number labelled as 'the culprit'.1. If the culprit was for example streaks of 3, does that mean all streaks of 1, 2 and 4 you will win, and on any streak of 3 you will lose?2. Could you give me an example (just brief BBPB BPBP etc) of when you would bet, which side and what progression?To make the culprit 3s, you bet 1 and 2 on opposites and 3 on repeats. To make the culprit 4s you bet 1,2 and 3s on opposites and 4s on repeats. To make the culprit 2s, you bet 1 on opposites and 2 on repeats.Does the above statement of yours translate to the following examples if making '3' the culprit?B : bet 1 unit on playerB : bet 2 units on playerB : bet 3 units on bankerand for making '2' the culpritB : bet 1 unit on playerB : bet 2 units on bankerand for making '4' the culpritB: bet 1 unit on playerB: bet 2 units on playerB: bet 3 units on playerB: bet 4 units on bankerSo, in essence is the system based on finding a choppy shoe, betting the opposite always, except for on the number labelled 'the culprit'? And in determining the culprit, you look for the least occurring sequence out of 2,3 and 4 streaks?Your time is much appreciated,Jesse"REPLYIt is nice to work with such a quick study! All of your deductions are highly accurate.But Jesse, you are 15 years behind the times.So Jesse, first let me go back in time and answer your direct questions: Then perhaps I can update you a little."2. Could you give me an example (just brief BBPB BPBP etc) of when you would bet, which side and what progression?"You would be deploying a 123 progression but in your examples you never get to the 3.Assuming a shoe started with BBPB, you would not bet the first play, then:You would bet 1 on P and lose, then:2 on P and win, then:1 on B and winSo after play 4 you are up 2 units. You are thus far playing to a 50% Player Advantage (ROI) Not bad considering that card counters strive for a 1/2% P.A. but never seem to quite make even that.In your second example BPBP starting at play 2, you would bet 1,1,1 and win every bet. You would be up 3 at play 4 with a 100 % P.A.Sounds good BUT:As you have described it thus far System 40 would merely be a break even system when applied to all shoes.BUT, as you correctly noted, when applied to the choppy half of all shoes and assuming some inevitable table selection mistakes, as thus far described, you can achieve about an 80% shoe win rate. Not bad considering the overall world win rate is considerably less than 50%. Otherwise, there would be no Baccarat.In support of this rough 80% win rate statement let me add that S40 got its name by winning 40 consecutive shoes played at 5 major casinos in CT, AC and Vegas and S40 accomplished this feat through simple table selection. This was likely a world record when it was accomplished 20 years ago but since then that record has been beaten by several of my NOR students.So OK, you are playing a break even system until you know what to make culprit in the shoe at hand, so:Let me catch you up to 8 years ago:"Events" are 1 in a rows, 2s 3s 4s etc.Obviously, at least to anyone with your perception ability, you want to make the "least common" event the culprit in the shoe at hand.8 years ago we developed a trick called "SAP" which measures every event in a shoe against its "weighted normal frequency of occurrence" and selects the optimum culprit for you very successfully. NOW you are suddenly playing a winning system overall. Yes, it sounds complex but it is actually fully accomplished in any shoe in split seconds. Later NOR simplified the SAP process to what is called the 3rd bet rule. The 3rd bet rule correctly identifies the "LC" (least common event) (the culprit) automatically and in no time at all. Moreover, it automatically keeps up with culprit changes in the more complex shoes. So yes, S40 is now a winning system overall.BUTAnd now I'll catch you fully up to date:S40 has even a more spectacular win rate when NOR assigns it to only the 1/3 choppiest of all shoes.For the middle third of all shoes (not choppy, but not streaky either) NOR assigns OTB4L, an even more spectacular system than 40 especially since casinos, through shuffle technology, strive for OTB4L shoes because they produce the highest casino win rate - except when we play. OTB4L kills "neutral" shoes and NOR players are nearly always the only winners at a neutral table. This accomplishment becomes even more spectacular given the fact that NOR players are nearly always also the lowest bettors at the table.Which leaves the streakiest third of all shoes:Yes, NOR could have safely selected the common 400 year old TB4L system.But we didn't. We selected system F simply because it gets on runs faster no matter which side and it kills the very common Strong Side (SS) shoes that TB4L struggles with.So now it all boils down to system selection, doesn't it. So do we simply look at the tote board and decide? While that would be very effective and is an excellent way to select a table, no, NOR deploys a purely mechanical process called the O/R count. O/R continuously points to the right system and takes judgement completely out of the picture. This comes in particularly handy during long play sessions when our judgement may be impaired by the long hours or Scotch or whatever.Jesse, top players all over the world from Singapour to Maccau to Vegas to AC, including my competitors, declare that NOR is the best way this game can be played or ever will be played. All others pale in.....Now, through study and practice you can achieve a 90 - 95% win rate.You need to get yourself up to date! Edited September 4, 2012 by Guest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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