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The 1/2% Casino BJ Advantage Myth


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I watched yet another BJ training film yesterday that featured the supposedly 1/2% casino advantage over Basic Strategy BJ players.

This is pure casino BS, designed to attract unwary players.

Today, pretty much all BJ players play fairly good Basic Strategy. Yet casinos win at a published rate of 15% of your buy in money on average and then try to tell you their advantage is only 1/2%. The two simply don't match up. Lets take a look at what would happen in the imaginary 1/2% fairy land.

Suppose you went to a casino with $100 and flat bet at $10 playing perfect Basic Strategy; How long would your $100 last? One of my BJ seminars, the attendees, from their own experience, agreed on a half hour of play. I think that is about right.

But how long would your $100 last in the mythical 1/2% casino advantage world???

Well, I'm guessing the average number of players per table is about 5 giving us about 40 hands per hour at $10 tables. This equates to betting about $400 per hour. This means that at 1/2% you would lose about $2 an hour. Therefore your $100 would last about 50 hours - about 2 weeks of full time play at 5 hours a day.

Now if that isn't pure fairy land I don't know what is. But that should give you some idea of just how gullible casinos as well as most BJ instructors THINK you are. They think you are stupid!

To play this game successfully the FIRST thing you have to do is live in the real world.

That is what I teach - Real World Blackjack!

Now, how many Mathematicians want to argue with me? Let me show the world just how stupid YOU are. The game isn't about math - not in the real world - and that is the world in which we play!

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The card counting gurus used to claim, not long ago, that perfect Basic Strategy alone had a 0.5% player ADvanantage - that card counting increased an already positive advantage. So, when none of their students could win they changed their tune to the current 1/2 disadvantage claiming that card counting would more than make up the difference.

So I challenged the card counting gurus at all the forums to produce a single year end winning counter. They couldn't do it! - Not even just one!

And when their students complained that they were playing perfectly but losing, the gurus replied: "Don't worry, you are just on the wrong side of the standard deviation." They didn't mention the fact that nobody was on the RIGHT side of the standard deviation.

They should let their students talk to each other on their forums like we do at BTC. Then their students would know that none of them are winning. When everyone is on the negative side of the standard deviation no matter how perfectly they play, it is clear that the standard deviation itself is set wrong.

Look, use your head. This 1/2 casino advantage is purely myth - a number that the gurus made up out of thin air. Then the casinos backed them up. The casinos let the card counting gurus have their seminars and make their films right there in the casino. No casino has let me do an NBJ seminar in their casino in the last 25 years. That should tell you something. Do you really want to learn from a guru who is fully supported by the casinos? Wouldn't it make more sense to be taught by someone who the casinos hate - by someone who actually plays the game - by someone who's students have watched him win hundreds of times?

So you ask your counting guru: How come I've never seen you play?

His standard reply is: "Because I always play in disguise."

Good grief man! Just how gullible are you???

If you play perfect Basic Strategy every time you play, no matter what kind of shoe you are playing - just as the gurus teach, the fact is you will lose perfectly every time you play. Stupidity is doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result - Or following a guru who can't beat the game himself.

Look, I've been beating this game for 30 years! Hundreds, no thousands of my players have watched me do it. Nobody has ever seen your counting guru even play - let alone win. To me, card counting students are like lemmings. How long are you going to let these guys buffalo you?

Is NBJ easy? No, but it is a whole lot easier than card counting. But the big difference is NBJ actually WINS.

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