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$1,000,000 Is Bac 50/50?

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Please do not post on this thread. Use the $1,000,000 Questions thread.

To be a Player vs a mere Mathematician, we have to get this basic question out of the way.

There has been a lot of well meaning conversation re this question lately.

The game is in fact 50/50 for a Mathematician because he first assumes the cards are random. He assumes casinos are dead honest - always a mistake. Mathematicians are ridiculously naive. They should stay away from casinos. Their discipline is simply not applicable to casinos.

We know better because we are actual players of the game. Mathematicians make horrible players. They bet against biases because they assume all biases are momentary aberations. They therefore lose at impossible rates and are largely responsible for the impossible casino profits associated with Baccarat. They are not playing with a full deck in other words. They are playing at the game rather than playing the game. They think there is no such thing as a choppy shoe or a streaky shoe or even a neutral shoe.

Casinos also know better. They see their job as presenting shoes that are opposite to the way the majority of the players are playing. To them "random" is something to be avoided. That is how they beat BJ so that is how they approach Baccarat. It worked in BJ so they are applying the same tecnology to Baccarat.

For instance, as players we know that choppy games usually stay choppy and streaky games usually stay streaky and also, neutral games usually stay neutral. The Mathematician assumes the next play is always 50/50. But is it?

Hell no, at least not in the shoes we choose to play.

Let's put 200 white marbles in a bucket with 200 red marbles and then shake the bucket until the distribution is about even.

Now let's blindly select 72 marbles from that bucket. What are the odds that two thirds of the marbles we select are white? The Mathematician will say: "About ZERO!"

But in Baccarat, what are the odds that a shoe will have twice as many opposites as repeats. They are pretty good aren't they - something we are used to seeing about every day we play Baccarat. 24 repeats and 48 opposites - very very common. We see shoes far more out of balance than that.

Take a column of 20 plays: 7 Players vs 13 Banks. Hell that is probably more common than 10 and 10.

Or 13 opposites vs 6 repeats. Very very common.

Yet to pick 48 white marbles vs 24 red marbles - virtually impossible. You might do it one time in thousands of tries.

The same with 10 tens in a row in 8 deck BJ. By random math, virtually impossible. Yet we see it daily in 8 deck BJ.

OK, here's the test: Let's take a shoe that had 48 opposites and 24 repeats.

So we bet opposites in that shoe. What were our odds on every bet? Were they 50/50? Or were they closer to 67/33?

I rest my case on that deal.

So what makes us Professional Players rather than mere Mathematicians, mere gamblers?

BECAUSE we know to find the strongest bias in the casino and bet on that bias. Otherwise we'd be mere gamblers.

See the difference? Some 99% of casino goers are mere gamblers. We want to be in the 1%, don't we.

THAT is what BTC is all about, whether BJ or Bac. That is what sets us apart.

That is the FIRST thing you need to fully grasp and understand - right after you learn how to read a tote board.

If you don't fully grasp our mission, no system is going to help you. Without a bias to play it against, all systems are merely break even.

E. Clifton Davis

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$1,000,000 Basic S40:

OK you already know to flat bet either opposites or repeats When the tote board HIGHLY favors one or the other.

How would you know this?

Again, all first liners are opposites. All other circles are repeats. The total plays played is also on the tote board. Subtract first liners from total plays. The difference is repeats. So now you know the opposites to repeats ratio. If they are the same you have a net bet situation. But if they are vastly different flat bet whichever is ahead. If you get to +5 quickly and early in the shoe, fine, capture 4 and keep going. You could even consider a mild progression. But usually, because you started late, there is not a whole lot of shoe left when you hit +5. QUIT at +5.

BTW, with regular cards it also helps to know what that color shoe did last time. Also with preshuffled no touch games, it is good to know what the last shoe did UNLESS they change the cards. In that case you can only go by the beginning of the shoe. What is it doing after 15 or 20 plays? Take your time, be sure - you are only trying to get to +5.

Another thing the tote board shows you is Strong Side most common in streaky shoes. That is an F3 situation.

But usually the tote board is not that biased so you need to settle for one of the 3 million dollar systems:

BaS40 (High 1's)

BaOTB4L (High 2s)

S40M1 (Low 2s)

Recognize that BaS40 and BaOTB4L are exactly the same except for your base bet.

BaS40 your base bet is Opposites - a 1,2 primary progression on opposites.

BaOTB4L your base bet is OTB4L - also a 1,2 primary progression on OTB4L.

S40M1 your base bet is on Opposites. but when you lose, your 2 bet is on repeats. In streaky shoes you stay OTR until you lose. Then start over at 1.

BaS40 (high 1's on the tote board or high 1's and 2s) (Same as S40 except for your secondary prog.)

Objective: +5 units

Best to wait for a 2iar to start and about ten plays

1.) Bet a 1,2 up as you lose primary prog on opposites. (You can only lose your primary prog to a 3iar or a 4iar when starting after a 2iar.)

2a) If most of the 3s have gone to 4 start your secondary prog 12358 directly under the 3iar If that 1 bet wins, wait for the run to end and start over.

2b) If it loses start over but after the next 3 your secondary prog is up to a 2 bet. (12358) up as you lose after 3iars.

3.) If most of the 3s so far stayed 3, start your primary prog opposite the 3iar (if that 1 bet wins, start over at 1)

3b) Same as 2b.


In extreme chop full of ZZs you may decide not to wait for a 2iar to start since you could miss aZZ run.

Starting mid shoe you have history to tell you which way to go with your secondary prog - on or against 3s.

You can stay on runs once on them but remember, you are only trying to get to 5.

Thats about all there is to BaS40

Next we will discuss BaOTB4L

Ask your questions on the Questions thread.

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