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NOR vs NOR+ vs MDB vs MDB+

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From the private forum:

Hi Ellis! I know you have full focus on the preshuffled scene ATM. I still play most regular cards and have tried out MBD and I have won about 6 out of 10 so far.

I wonder, what's your take to make NOR+ a bit more conservative and combine it with MBD in some way?

NOR+ is, as you know, a very powerful system, even in preshuffled cards.

Do you think NOR+ is still the best way with regular cards? I was trying it out when you developed it but I had some big drawdowns and continued with basic NOR.



Boy! Excellent questions: In fact I think I will put it on the forum.

NOR is the best overall system for regular cards IF you are an accomplished NOR player.

MDB is a NOR shortcut and more mechanical if you are NOT an accomplished NOR player.

Recognize that we now have new MDB members who don't know NOR.

AND we have old casual members for whom MDB will be easier than NOR.

BOTH NOR and MDB leave the question of how best to play high 3s.

It recently dawned on me that the best way to play high 3s in both MDB and NOR, is, for the lack of a better name, OTB4L-3 wherein you bet straight down under a 2 (which always won with OTB4L) and then back to normal OTB4L. That bet is what SAP is telling us to do - a slightly modified version of OTB4L ONLY for high 3s. This way 3s become our best friend - we often win all 3 circles of the 3 but we ALWAYS win the last 2. This makes high 3s about the best situation we can have in Baccarat for BOTH MDB and NOR. Ha, and we have been playing SAP that way for ten years.

We have discussed this before but only casually. I need to get it to the forefront because half of all shoes have high 3s. We particularly like this with high 3s vs 2s and 1's.

We need to make this a hard rule for BOTH NOR AND MDB. It completely solves a nagging problem for both systems and it keeps our bets lower and our hit rate higher. Credit goes to PJ for bringing this to our attention.

Now, NOR+ is what you do when you find yourself in a particularly good NOR shoe - a strong bias of one type or another. When NOR is experiencing a high hit rate we can make a lot more money with NOR+.

This is particularly true of new regular cards, the first 2 or 3 shoes after the morning card prep. New regular cards are nearly always OTB4L or sometimes S40 but almost never F or S40M1. I am so confident of this that I usually start right out with NOR+ at play 2 when playing new cards after watching the dealer perform the new cards card prep. BUT if the dealer changes the standard card prep, I back off to regular NOR and wait for a bias to reveal itself using either an OR or a SAP count.

This is why it is important to completely know the casino you are playing. FIRST and foremost: Are they using regular or preshuffled cards. You can tell for sure by how the cards origionally came to the table. An 8 deck bundle is preshuffled. 8 individual sealed boxes is regular cards.

Look! If you don't know you have no business playing at all.

BTW, as far as I know, all on line live game casinos are regular cards. If anyone sees anything different - they should alert us.

Now, MDB+ is designed for new preshuffled cards such as all Vegas touch games.

But it is also USUALLY somewhat effective in regular cards - particularly NEW regular cards which tend to be more random. A clever player could play NOR and MDB+ (5 of a kind) both at the same time in the same shoe. Or even NOR+ and MDB+ at the same time.

This is a good time to remind you that every now and then, particularly with old regular cards we see extreme streak - runs following runs - very minus OR count. This is a casino accident. Your best bet is to simply bet repeats - that is what you are seeing.

And if there are ZZ runs mixed in just play TB4L.

We need to always be alert to this especially when playing at night against regular cards. You usually only get ONE shot at this because because the casino will react and either change the shuffle or the shuffle machine timer or the cards. They aren't going to stand there and lose. So watch out for yourself when starting the next shoe - did they wake up yet or not? And sometimes there is no one there to make that call, particularly LATE night. And sometimes they simply close the table.

Our BEST players are those who know both NOR and MDB+ thoroughly - those who can correctly react to whatever situation comes up - those who know both the SAP and the OR counts and even the OT count. Those who see opportunity quickly when confronted with virtually any situation.

Nearly all Baccarat shoes have a weakness that can be exploited one way or another.

This all reminds me of a day not long ago when I was playing head to head at Harrah's, Tunica against old preshuffled cards: I was having a very hard time deciphering what seemed like perfectly random cards - no biases whatsoever.

But then the Dealer blurted out something in the middle of a shoe: "Look at that! Bank and Player are equal again in this shoe!"

Why had I missed that???

I simply switched to PvB net betting and won every shoe. The dealer never knew why I tipped her so high!

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