John12345
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Posts posted by John12345
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Just got back from AC after playing NOR. I was planning on playing SAP but I didn't really have the patience to sit down and play SAP the way that I play it.
So I set out to the table to play NOR. I was actually probably playing an older version of it. I saw it a few times on paper, but the concept is so easy to get a hang of after reading it a few times, that it becomes rather hard to forget. My biggest issue is the switching, I sometimes switch too many times. But I found a way to deal with that personal problem.
anyway, this was my first time playing at the Taj. I think I will be playing bac at the Taj from now on. I planned to play the entire night, but I got down late. My fiancee went out with a few friends, so that gave me about two hours to play some baccarat. I decided to test NOR out on a $15.00 table. I bought in for about $120. Upon sitting down, I got the typical "what the hell is this young white kid doing here" look from all of the "experienced players". I waited about eight decisions before I saw a perfect Sys40 opportinuty. Usually I wait 15-20 decisions before making a bet, but I wasn't sure how long I would have before I had to stop playing, so I felt rushed (never play if you feel rushed, I watched a guy lose 10K doing that). The shoe ended up being a perfect System40 shoe all of the way through, with a few occasional burps, leaving me betting no higher than 3 units, two times.
At the end of the shoe, I cashed out +23 units. Not bad, for the way that I was betting. I started playing at 1 unit flat to get a feel for the shoe. Then I moved to a 1,2,3 as the shoe got stronger. I also pressed on some of my stronger plays. And at other times, I all together stopped betting.
So it was a great showing for NOR over in the Taj. I cashed out richer than most of the people at my table who couldn't seem identify an easy shoe.
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I have been wanting to join the private forum again, but I never have the time to play baccarat anymore, so I'm holding out until I am free. I found some time to to book a trip to AC this Saturday. I will be playing SAP, or at least what I remember from SAP. In the past, SAP preformed the best for me here. So I'll head down with my BTC SAP tools and combine it with a couple of ideas of my own.
One quick question to SAP players here. What progression seems to work the best with SAP? I was thinking about an Up .5 Down 1, but I am not sure about that. I might start out flat betting, then progress to a 1,2,3 if the shoe is good and figure out where to go from there.
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Ellis,
Here is a question for you. I am under the impression that there are different types of shuffles. If this is true then do certain types of shuffles produce streaky or chop shoes? And if the ]shuffle does produce a set of conditions either streaky or choppy, the wouldn't it be to our benefit to watch the shuffle or wash process prior to sitting at the table to determine which system to start with? I'm not referring to the shuffle machines, only hand washed cards like on bet phoenix or at some of the big back tables that still use a new set of factory cards after each squeeze game.
Thanks
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It's always good to have a member back up what we say. Right, it's a nice casino and BIG but it needed to be 3 times bigger. I didn't count but they seemed to have about 25 Bac tables but they needed 75 on the days we played there. A mad house.
yes, very nice, but very poor playing conditions. I personally have never seen so many Bac tables. During Christmas time I was over at Harrahs AC, they only had 1 single table open and I was playing alone most of the time. But sands beth has well over 10 running at a time, and it is very hard to find a seat. Same problem at Harrahs Chester, another one that I frequently play at.
Some of the players WERE a bit rude but I chalk that up to frustration from waiting to play and also to a lack of English. But I sensed they were TRYING to be friendly.I have met some nice players in Sands but overall they are rude. I'm pretty sure that I am one of the few Caucasians ( and youngest ) that plays the game in Sands, so I guess they have no reason to be nice to me. I am actually taking a break from the game because I cannot deal with the people that are playing it at sands. Even when I win, I still come home pissed off and disgusted from all the terrible things i see. Good thing you guys are here to show people the light.
I don't know why so many Asians want to play a game they have NO understanding of. I don't mean ALL Asians. I'm just talking about those particular Asians.
You got that right. I have seen some very bad decisions made in this casino. You could make a ton of money standing outside of the casino selling your system. They come in by the bus load at all times of the day and are so clueless. I can't help but wonder where they come from and why they keep returning. They never seem to win, they all must be part of some big team or something. There is always one guy who stands back and watches, It is kind of suspicious. I also have noticed a new fashion trend. Many of the sands baccarat players have a very long finger nail, usually on their smallest finger. I don't know if this is a weird fashion statement, or if it has something to do with drugs. But I stay the hell away from those people. You can find a lot of shady people walking around sands at all times of the day. especially in the baccarat and roulette sections.
No, that casino is definitely not for me. And WHY do they have the G.D. music so freaking loud?
that actually keeps me awake. If you think that Sands is loud then you should walk into Harrahs Chester. Actually harrahs Chester is worse because it is always freezing.
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We'll talk about this more in the betting chapter in the NOR manual.
When will the NOR manual be ready?
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Unfortunately we could not use that strategy at the Sands, Bethlehem where we played most of the 14 shoes Keith will post if he hasn't already. Every table was either completely full or completely empty with a partial game on the tote board. But unfortunately they don't play out the game on the tote board. They start a new game. We learned that the hard way. This is the first time I ever saw a casino deploy that strategy. But hey, it's The Sands and those guys are sharper than two tacks.
I play at Sands Beth all the time since it is so close to my university, only about 7 minutes. Nice casino but I am not a fan of baccarat there. Too many rude people and always way too crowded. If you go at 7am, there are a ton of people there and if you go at 12am there are still a ton of people there. I hate starting shoes from the first decision, but you really have no choice at that casino. It isn't so bad though, they let me text on my phone which is nice. I get yelled at for doing that at AC. I have played played system40 there and done alright, the conditions can be a bit odd at times.
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Thanks for the information and reply
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Ellis,
I have a question for you. The question deals with Inner-deck consistencies and using the 3 modes of system40 to exploit the bias between each deck. ( if a bias even exists??? )
Have you every looked at breaking a shoe down deck by deck? If so, Do you think it will make any difference? I am probably making no sense, so I will explain what I mean.
Let's say we are playing an 8 deck game. We know that there will be 8 decks in total used. Next, we subtract the burned cards from the total amount of cards in the deck to give us the true number of cards in the entire shoe. So rather than 8 decks, there may only be 7.5 decks that we will need to consider.
After that, we figure out how many cards each deck will contain, and this will be an ongoing calculation based on the total number of cards dealt per hand. We should therefore be able to determine when deck 1, deck 2, deck 3, deck 4...all end.
So here is my question. Can NOR, or System40A be used to find inner-deck consistencies? My question is based on he assumption that each individual deck will present a bias towards either chops, streaks, or neutral.
So I would probably use the OR count to determine the first half of each deck. After determining the mode to play, I would then play that mode for the remaining portion of the deck, then stop and retrack for the first half of the next deck.
Think there could be any merit to this?
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I think it's mainly because we're always searching but I said in several threads that I thought NuSap was an extremely good play.
It always has been one of my favorites here and one of the systems that I avoided the most for some reason. I still can't figure out why.
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Thanks for the information. I think that I have an idea about what NOR might be. I have actually found myself questioning why I am even using the SAP count because the OR count (following many of the principles that you outlined in the System40 A threads) is sufficient enough. I am going to join again at some point in the near future. For now I will continue with some small trends and look to strike when the OR count presents the exploits.
Oh and lately I have been encountering a lot of those neutral shoes that you have been talking about at Harrah's Chester and Bethlehem Sands. In fact, when I was playing on Friday everybody got up and left the table towards the end because the shoe was not choppy or streaky. They had no idea how to handle the shoe. I used my BTC knowledge to recognize that the shoe was neutral, I stayed and Killed the shoe. I think that the lessons that you teach about the neural shoes are extremely important.
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anybody here still use NU SAP? that was probably my favorite and most successful system here. I got too caught up in Maverick and stopped playing SAP. I have been having success lately by combining NU SAP, Trending, and an OR count together. I basically start the shoe slow and bet when I see a good opportunity. I track SAP and the OR count together and I look for exploits or sweat spots for the various programs, then I stop trending and I begin playing a system based on either the OR count or the SAP count. I also am using a variable progression that I could never begin to describe it since it is all based on my performance and feelings about what is going to happen. So I am still using NU SAP to a degree, anyone else?
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As far as charging $1000, yes, it seems a lot compared to us but ONLY when you campare to us. Its not a lot to charge the average know nothing street player. I, myself, sold a hell of a lot more manuals back when I charged $3000 per manual than I do now at $200 per manual. We sold literally thousands of manuals at the $2000 to $3000 price. And when the next manual came along it was't free. Lots of people like Tom, bought every manual I ever wrote, about 13 in total not counting BJ.
See, a $200 manual, by definition has NO credibility. The general public takes the attitude: "If its that good, why so cheap?" The fact is, I sold more manuals at $3000 per copy than at all other prices put together. But see, today, for me, its a hobby. Because it sure as hell isn't a business as it once was.
So, is $1000 too high? It depends on your point of view. Yes, it probably is too high if you are coming from this forum. But to teach the average player from scratch, a very major chore, $1000 is probably too low. I think Mark would actually get more new students at a $3000 price tag. And don't forget inflation! Back when I sold at $3000 that was much closer to $6000 in today's dollars.
This is so true! he is using the good old expensive = good, marketing tactic. I am not saying his system is bad, I have never seen the new one, and I don't plan to for that price. But let's face it, people have lost with it, and it is not foolproof. So what makes his system better than the systems here? So many people are fooled by the stereotype that Ellis is talking about. Mark is using the tactic to its finest. It makes perfect sense. Just think about it, our world is so complex and stimulated, we have to process information so fast, and most of the time at we process information in an automatic fashion. This means that we need to use stereotypes to help make decisions to lessen the burden of the stimuli on our central nervous system. So the expensive = good stereotype is used to make qualitative decisions in a short amount of time. In reality, what are you really getting when you buy his system? Some great help, probably a great method, maybe even a future of winning, but you get that here too, for a lot less. Actually you get more here, for a lot less. Right now I am more interested in Mark's marketing methods more than his system. He is not really coming onto forums and advertising, he does not need to. he has his forum and site, and he is wording things exactly like he has to to pull the buyer in. Even the entire thing where he helps people play on Bet Phoenix is a marketing tacit, it is called the Law of Reciprocation- one of the many weapons of influence (i'm sure he is doing it to be nice, but he does get something out of it). I have noticed that a lot of what he says is taught in a book called The Psychology of Persuasion. Read that book and you can sell someone a blade of grass.
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I'm be in Harrah's this coming Tues-Thurs. I'll let you know how the games are. I was there last year around this time and they had 1 25 dollar table two 50 dollar tables, and a few high roller tables.
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nobody is posting shoes up to practice against! I will start posting my shoes for S-40A.
My scores are always going to be a lot lower than Ellis. I am still making mistakes and I am very conservative. Actually I think that the weakest part of my game is aggression. I started with 20 units on BP and I won extra 40 units in 3 days. I withdrew 40 of the units for something so I am starting back from 20 units again. between last night and today I was able to build my bankroll up to 44 units.
Since I do not have a big bankroll I am playing very slow. I start out either flat betting or using a 1,1,2 until I figure out My MC's and LC's. Then I begin using a progression.
Shoes 1:
11/30- BP
+9, High +11
P412111212113
B6231211112
B1141
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Shoes 2:
11/30- BP
+14, High +15, Low -5
P11113112113211
B21235412
P11221311112211
P212
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Shoes 3:
12/01- BP
+5, high +9
B243224111
P121121231141
B123
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Is anybody having trouble logging onto bet phoenix? I can't get the 5 dollar table running. I keep getting a message saying this user is already logged in. It has been showing me this message all day.
Nevermind. The problem appears to be fixed.
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11/29/10 Shoe 1: 11pm BP
Only played to decision 34
P1132445
P3621111
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11/28/10 Shoe 2: 10am-BP
P12241221131
B11116113122
P81
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+ favorable: We've got that well covered with S40.
- favorable: We've got that covered with F2
Hovering 0 is the same as saying the count has short durations of + mixed with short durations of - (the shoe can't make up its mind between + and -) OTB4L covers that well.
That takes care of everything the OR count can do EXCEPT one - Large excursions in the + direction intermixed with large excursions in the - direction. I'm not good with names but we could simply call this 40/F2
I played a shoe where the count kept going from -4 to -3 or -2 then back to -4. This happened about 8 times and I was doing alright in F2 but losing more bets than I was winning. So after seeing that the 1's were the LC and the 2's and 3's were really high I made the decision to go into OTB4L. I think it is important to point out that OTB4L can occur sometimes when the OR count gets stuck. I guess this situation is rare but it happened to me and switching to OTB4L made a huge difference profit wise.
Fine, if we need some sort of payment plan, fine, let's create one.
I like this idea! Especially since I just used about 90% of my bankroll for an engagement ring so I am a little broke right now. I'm hoping that I can use System40 to make up what I spent.
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Tonight's shoe from Bet Phoenix. Started around 11pm Eastern. The shoe continued after 65. I noticed a consistency between this shoe and the first shoe in terms of LC, MC, and few 1's. Also, this is the second shoe that I played around this time within the last two nights that had a banker streak greater than 6 in column 1.
11/28/10 Shoe 1: 11pm Eastern -BP
B237113111
P21223221212
P12822131
P2111
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Oh here is the rest of the shoe. I stopped at decision 41, well actually a little before but I tracked to 41. It is from BPH
P 1211111 11 1
P 2512122113
P 1
after the B11 I stuck with F2. If I had switched to System 40 towards the end then it would have hurt more than helped. because at the time my 3's were the LC so I would have been betting agsint the 3 with 40 and a 3 showed up at play 40, F2 would have won there.
I finished this shoe after falling back from +8 to +5. I stayed in F2 the entire time after the streak of 11. It seemed to make sense to me to stay with F2.
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Such a shoe start after a wash is extremely rare and would have caught me by surprise also. There is no point in making rules to cover such shoes because they are so rare and such rules would hurt us in more common situations.
I would have felt quite confident starting with S40 345 right after a wash. This would have got me to +19 when the run began. But, unfortunately for me I always start 40 with 4s culprit. When I finally made my 3 bet OTR at play 13 my score would have been +10, down from +19. I would be STRONGLY inclined to quit this shoe right there with +10 in that I am extremely protective of my chips won and this shoe is very bizarre already. But I can guarantee you that I would not have lost this shoe because once having hit +16 or more I never make a bet that could take me below 0.
I would like to tell you I would have done something heroic and switched to F2 like you thought of but in all honesty +10 would have looked real good to me at that point.
BTW, The on off on off the run scheme that you brought up recently would have served you VERY well in this shoe but it doesn't lend itself well to a 345 prog. I would have been tempted but I doubt I would have took the bait.
+19 then right back down. I hate it when that happens!
Oh, and BTW, its best to get all your switching done as early as possible in a shoe so if you DID switch to F2, the middle of the 11 would have been the right time to do it.
Ok thank you. I was only playing the 12345 prog. After the Run of 11 Banks there wsa a run of 3 players. I ended up switching to F2 after 2 players and I felt comfortable doing that because the 2's were low. And I stayed in F2 for the entire shoe. But based off what you said and looking back I think it would have made so much more sense to go to F2.
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Ellis,
Thanks for answering all of my questions. i actually came up with an interesting situation today in a shoe. I was not sure whether to stay with System 40 or switch to F2. I will give the first 20 plays and that is all that I will give. This will prevent anyone from looking ahead and deciding what to do based on the future outcomes
P 1211111 11 1
After losing to 3 in a row I jumped OTR betting against the 44 pattern
I hit a streak of 11 B and my count went from +6 to -4 so my dilemma became, do I switch to F2 or stay with system 40? I cannot take the prior shoe into account because I missed the first shoe and they washed my current shoe before starting. . Obviously the count is negative and it dropped a fair amount of points so that could warrant going into F2. I however decided to stay with system40 since it was so early in the shoe and since 40 was winning prior to the streak of 11 banks. Looking back, it could make sense to Switch to f2 since it handles 1's and streaks well but at the time I was thinking that System 40 has the OTR system built in so it would pick up on another long run if it occurred. I also stuck with 40 because I did not want to change systems so fast.
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Correct! Think about a ZZ run playing F2. Often, the shoes with the longet straight runs (F2), also have the longest ZZ runs. Sure, you could switch to TB4L but it isn't part of S40A. F2 does better because it gets on straight and ZZ runs faster. But if you switch to 023 or 034 instead of 123 in the ZZs you do even better. And if you finally win the 0, you can go to 1 giving you an extra bet in your prog. Might come in handy.
I wish I had knowng of this trick yesterday when I was at Harrah's. I was playing some system that I made up on the spot and I lost all of my first bets and won all of my second or third bets. That is why I like about this forum. You not only teach these greats systems but you also give us all of the little tricks to improve our play. You give information that we won't find anywhere else.
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Ellis, thanks for your response.
I understand what you are saying about when to use OTB4L I was just confused about the Neutral part of the system and whether to use OTB4L in that situation or the neutral part which to me seemed sort of like net betting. I need to read that section a few times. For now I just go into OTB4L when I see the count hovering around 0 and I am losing most of my System40 bets and of course if the shoe is OTB4L compatible.
With that said, I have already played two live shoes on Bet Phoenix. I see what you are saying about paying attention to the shuffle. Before starting my first shoe I noted the OR count and the LC and MC. It stayed consistent through the next 3 shoes. So I went into the second and third shoe knowing that F2 would probably be my primary system and I did very well. As you know usually the shoes are favoring System 40 but I find that when they are not favoring 40 they will be favoring F2.
Most of the time I go into the shoe blind. some Pa casinos have a ton of tables but they are all so crowded that I have to fight for a seat so I don't get a choice. And then there are some casinos that only have 1-2 tables so that limits choice as well. When I go into a shoe blind I will typically wait out 4-7 decisions to see where the OR count is heading then bet based on that. I have a lot of trouble starting at Play 1 blind, I have had some bad experiences doing that. I usually wait 7, unless I see something unfolding before then. does anybody else sit out for a number of decisions at the start of the shoe?
NOR trip report
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
That is true. Most baccarat players do not take me serious when I walk up to the table, I often wonder if it is because I am not Asian. I also get a lot of weird looks when I hold my score card vertical. And I'm sure that it doesn't help that I am very young looking. I actually had a guy tell me that I should get my feet wet and give betting a try! After I won, I found myself telling him to go to BTC when he was asking me how to play haha