avion
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Posts posted by avion
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6 hours ago, nikolasyue said:
Yay, Mr. Oz is back; I have only recently began playing with serious intention to win consistently and have been reading thru all the posts so much thanks to all the players that contribute their experiences and understanding of the game. For me, the hero is Norm, rest in peace, and I am learning that style of play so I mostly flat bet and the highest I bet is 2; I look for all exploits like MC, LC, ZZ or S40, STR or F, SS, OTBL, TBL, etc and try to adapt with the shoe.
Since Norm, it looks like there are many great players now, especially someone who self-effacingly seems to performs at his level or even more now, so I posted a shoe and I hope you all can give your input on how to play it better. Some questions I have are: was my entry too late, which bets should I have suspended or placed, were the wager amounts correct depending on the situation and did I exit too late?
Also to note my scorecard; the 4 columns to the right of the P and B record are either for the 4D counts or the SAP counts which I use depending on what I am seeing in the shoe so that I have the particular counts to verify what I am seeing. In this case, it is the 4D count so the first column is the P/B count, the second is the O/R count, the third OT/T count, and the fourth, 2OT/2T count. I start keeping the O/R count at play 9 count because I see the repeats of B3 P2 B4- so I am anticipating playing SS for banker. At play 23 I start paying attention to the OT/T count because of the opposites following the repeats and lack of twos so I am anticipating a TBL situation and I just record the count from play 20.
The question marks are my paper bets.
I start playing OTBL at play 32-36 and switch back to TBL for play 38-39.
I’ll listen to the input first rather than explain the reasoning for some of my play in which I clearly made some errors so I'll appreciate any suggestions and much thanks to anyone who chimes it.
This is how I play. Everyone is different in what they look for in a shoe.
I would have started on hand 7 seeing a "wall" and banker is stronger by 4 to 2 over player. I flat bet until hand 14. Banker has increased by 1 over the previous 3 bankers, so I bet a 2 unit. Up +5. Go back to 1 unit lose, +4, go to player for the wall to continue lose +3 now.
I wait, having lost 2 bets in a row, not having any direction if it might go 1's or if banker continues.
Hand 13 banker continues and it is now a sporadic. I win flat bet hand 14, 15, back to +5 lose hand 16, +4 continue with banker sporadic, win hand 17, 18, +6, banker now has increased in total 1 more, so I bet 2 units win +8. Back to one unit bet lose, +7, continue on bank because it has not lost two in a row...+8, lose +7, I switch after 3-1's (bias within bias) win bank +8, win player +9, lose to player +8. I wait one hand as player hasn't gone beyond 2 iar, hand 26 player increased by 1 so I bet player win, +9 then player loses +8. No direction so I wait a hand, it goes banker on hand 29, now I have a wall bet banker on hand 30, lose, and wait as I have lost 2 bets in a row, +7.
Hand 31, player banker wall gone. I wait till hand 34, and see nothing but 1's and 2's from banker since before the 4 players in a row, and I waited to see if player would go more than two which it didn't due to the previous 4 in a row. I am using BaS40, and bet opposite banker on hand 35, +8, continuing on opposites, +9, +10, having won 3 -1 unit bets I bet 2 units and win +12, back to 1 unit win and have +13.
The shoe contained all three aspects that I use, "walls" "sporadics" and BaS40. I would never be so arrogant to tell anyone to play the way I do. All I do is share what I do, and if it helps someone, great. If not, like Pando says, "there is more than one way to skin a cat". I admire, respect, and honor the GREAT CAT SKINNERS on here. You guys are the best of the very best there is, and I believe the reason why is because like Oz, you work hard at developing your skills. It may get "bat shit boring", but nothing beats winning. "Bat shit boring"......that phrase really cracks me up. Maybe I should go to a bat cave, and watch them do that to get a really clear picture of the meaning of it. lol
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4 hours ago, wolfat said:
To set when a side get "lucky cards" I consider this when it gets 1 of the 2 or 3max cards availables to win the hand.
Every card worths 8% (1/13), so the winning hand get the winning card when it was at 8/92% to lose, or 16/84%, or 24/36% (with 3 cards availables).
IE, this happened to me yesterday:
first deal: P4 B3
then P get a 8 totaling 2
..and the B get a 7 totalling 0!
lol I was on B...
sometimesit it happens|!
PS I have one more question for my fellow players:
Do you usually play a pattern straightforward, IE when you decide to play, sy OTBL, or prefere to play, more selectively, a "pattern within the pattern" like Avion said.
Be selective is less risky, but also less rewarding.
What's your opinion on this matter?
thanks
Great question Wolfat.......Simply, I NEVER start to play a shoe with any certain strategy or plan in mind. What I look for in "reading and seeing the shoe clearly" is consistency. That could be consistent "walls", sporadics, 1's and 2's, 2's and 3's, 3's and 4's+. If a shoe is inconsistent....I simply wait for the possibility that some consistency may develop. Like Oz has emphasized one of the greatest things a seasoned player of the game can learn to do, handed down by Norm, is not to bet. It takes a lot of time, work, and experience to learn when not to bet, and it is so worth it when you wanted to bet....but because of what you were seeing you decided not to bet. Sure enough if you had bet, you would have lost. That losing one unit bet that you didn't make, just put you one unit closer to achieving your win goal for that shoe, session, and day. I will emphatically say, even if I only win one unit a shoe, I won that shoe. It's more important to me to win consistently than how many units I won. Many baseball games have been won and lost by the score of 1-0, including many extra inning games. The guys on the losing team know they lost. The guys on the winning team know they won. That one unit bet, can literally mean the difference between winning the shoe, or not.
One of Pando's greatest strengths and skills, if he sees a shoe is not the type he wants, he doesn't play, and is disciplined to wait for the type of shoe he knows he will win. That is such a powerful weapon in the skillset of "reading a shoe and seeing it clearly".
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Oz, I like it when you don't take your medication. The fire inside you burns with a greater intensity. Bring it on my friend......and thank you for all that you share.
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Persistence and Perseverance........
It's easy to have a dream. Dreams come true for those who work at making dreams come true. One day it happens and you want to make your dream come true. So you start working at it, and quickly realize....this isn't going to be easy. This is actually more difficult than I realized. That realization is when a lot of people quit and give up on their dreams. It is just too demanding of my time, it drains me mentally, emotionally I just can't take it. There are just too many things to learn, it is overwhelming. I have failed.
That is exactly the place you want to be. Cream rises to the top. You are determined, you will not stop, you will go forward with a greater sense of being persistent. You have decided to resist anything that stands in your way. There are all kinds of examples to draw from. Do you feel like you are looking for a "needle in the haystack"? Great, get busy and look at every single strand of hay until you find it. Quitting is no longer an option.
You proceed forward in a calm, more objective, and straight to point of many things to learn. You tried going around it, under it and over it, and it didn't work. So now you know there is only one way, and that is straight at it and through it. You break through every barrier that is in front of you. You trip, and stumble, and yet you realize those trips and stumbles are trying to teach you something and you have to learn from them. Difficulties come at you from places you could never imagine. It matters not in your steely resolve.
Your next step....is working at it twice as hard. The greatest difficulty you will ever have.....is you. No one can do it for you.......only you can when you make up your mind to persist, resist, and persevere.
For your viewing enjoyment and inspiration the movie Eddie the Eagle.
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Thank you Brad, Pando, and Oz. I love this great input from some really dedicated and insightful players. I use BaS40, along with what I call "walls" (like 3 players, 4 bankers, no 1's in between them, and also bet sporadics. With BaS40 I use a 1,2 negative progression, and with "walls" and sporadics, if I win the 1 bet, I go to a 2 bet. From some good conversations with Pando, from how he plays (very effectively) I know he hates 2's, whereas I hate 3's, unless they are connected with a wall of 4 or more, or a part of a sporadic banker or player run.
Oz made a great point in the way he plays that he described as a "bias within a bias". I use that also which might be the same aspect he mentioned. I don't know for sure if it is the same as he mentioned, but lets say there is a banker sporadic run, and banker hasn't lost 2 in row. I term a sporadic as having a 3 in row, connected to a 2 in a row on the same player or banker side with no more than 1's between them. Then you see the 1's running in that same banker sporadic run. To stay on banker, win 1, lose one, and that continues with a streak of 1's that is winning each hand, I switch to the 1's, and when it loses (in this case to 2 bankers) I switch back to banker for the banker sporadic run to possibly continue. I do the same thing if it is a player sporadic run. A good run of the 1's like that inside a sporadic, I refer to as a "bias within a bias".
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"So the good cards don't have to be miracle cards, just better than the other side." Good eye Pando.
I feel bad for that young lady that was betting against a run. It was clearly a novice doing what she did. Betting against a trend, run, pattern, count, bias, etc is a close cousin to using a martingale. Like trying to swim against a strong current......it will eventually wear you out in more ways than one.
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Fantastic example of how to rebound after a losing shoe. Like the saying goes....."it's not how you start the day, it's how you end it". Way to go Pando.
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Brad is not old enough to be in "our" age club. lol Just kidding Brad. Your work ethic is relentless, admirable, and a great example for everyone that is serious about learning the game and how to win.
Pando, please post your results from your play this weekend. It inspired me greatly, and is such a great example of what you do. In just two years, I have to say you have become the consummate professional. I am willing to bet, you have been that way all your life in everything you have taken upon yourself to do.
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For anyone that reads the last several posts in this thread.....3 guys in their 60's.....that more than proves LEARNING NEVER STOPS. Are we too old? Laughing here at that question, as I KNOW the priceless wisdom and intelligence that has been EARNED through the years. I had no idea what age Oz and Pando was until now. I do know I love reading and listening to every single word they share.
Three things in terms of their character really stands out. 1. Hard work. 2. Humility. 3. Perseverance.
Guys like that, (Norm set the gold standard) love passing on what they have learned to help others. They know how challenging, difficult and frustrating it can be. They also know how rewarding it can be and not just in terms of monetary gain.
One thing they and I don't have time for is laziness. Time is so precious......make every moment count in the best ways possible. You guys are the best of the very best there is.
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Excellent and thank you Oz. Happy 64th birthday to you. I got my 65th back in May. Be well, and enjoy every moment.
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I understand, and still it breaks my heart to see good and dedicated people move on.....but I do understand, the one constant in life is change. Savour every good moment there is.
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wolfat.....that is awesome in the truth of it....thank you sharing it
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Well said BACMANN.....very well said.
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To also concur with Brad01, it demands HONESTY.
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It is my humble viewpoint, that the single most distinctive quality that a person can have is that they WORK at what they do. We all know the old tried and true saying, "if it was easy, the whole world would do it."
Research, testing, practice, comparisons of strategies, betting progressions or flat, win goals, lost limits, patterns, counts, personal preferences, successes, failures, mental and emotional aspects, all of them and more enter into all of it.
It demands hard work and learning how to work smarter. I love and appreciate being a part of a community that does exactly that. Cheers and admiration to the hard working members, owners, and friends of BTC.
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1 to go 2 and 2 to stay 2........GENIUS
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"Work the problem, tear it apart, see it for what it really is, and come up with a solution".
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FEAR.......The fear of losing.......can create the fear of winning.....which paralyzes you into exactly the thing you don't want to......losing.
It's easy to fear the next hand. What will it be? Did I make the right decision? Should I have made opposite of the decision I just made? What happens if I lose? Is this a good strategy I am using? The list goes on and on, but what is it really? It's called fear. The sooner you accept the next hand is going to do exactly what it does and you have no control over it AT ALL and you remain CALM, the better you will be able to see what the shoe is doing and isn't doing.
Fear, anxiety and the worst of all....PANIC... has nothing to do with the casino, the shoe, the dealers or pit boss. It has everything to do with your own emotional control. I have been there and done that, so it isn't something that I haven't experienced.
It had nothing to do with the game, it has everything to do with me. So, I had to learn how to beat those destructive emotions and behavior. Things like breath control....the simple......slowly breathe in and slowly breathe out. Heart rate.....fear definitely elevates your heart rate...how do I slow it down? Recognize it and know you need to relax and calm down.....by doing exactly that.
Two great movies to watch "Apollo 13" and "The Right Stuff". A huge part of their training was how to remain calm, even when staring into the face of impending disaster. Not just the astronauts but the ground crew also. Watch what happens in the "The Right Stuff" when panic sets it and what takes place as a result of it. Watch what happens in Apollo 13 when they decide to take that one opportunity against overwhelming odds to get back to earth safely and they remain calm about it to execute it to perfection. Everyone was afraid......but...they had already learned to calm themselves to have a clear mind to do what they must.
I can tell you as a certified rescue scuba diver, the one thing that causes more accidents, injuries and death in, on, or under the water is PANIC.
Simply ask yourself, getting filled with fear, anxiety, worry and panic.......did it change the outcome of the hand just dealt? Of course it didn't. Did all that stress, uncertainty, and mindless praying change the outcome of the last hand dealt? Of course it didn't. Whatever it takes for you to relax, and be calm.......is well worth it and you will definitely see the benefits of doing so.
Just like anything else......it takes practice and hard work to do so. It's a large part of the "Right Stuff".....
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Now you know why I had no idea what type of shuffle it was, as I think you know Pando, I adhere heavily in giving priority to "reading the shoe".
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"what such a man needs is not courage, but more control, and cool headedness." "This he can get only by practice."
Theodore Roosevelt
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I honestly have no clue Pando regarding what type of shuffle. Great to know you got there and back home safely.
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Right after Thomas Edison created the light bulb and a means to record voices he said....... "I have not failed, I've just found 10,000 ways that don't work."
Ever felt that way regarding baccarat?
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I understand for all of us, it is about winning. Yet at times, like Brad said, breaking even beats losing. A guy once told me, if you walk out of a casino and break even, you actually won against the house edge.
As for losing, that is where you really learn. My second favorite quote, next to "read the shoe clearly" is "lose, but don't lose the lesson".
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Reason I do these informal surveys, is that it will give new members a "realistic" idea of what it takes, and that it doesn't happen overnight in just a month or two, which I think may be helpful to them. Certainly understanding everyone has their own time frame and learning curve, and at the same time, hope it helps with any unrealistic expectations. It takes a lot of reading, work, study, practice, commitment, passion, help, etc......and well worth it to learn here. Consider, we have been given so much, and in the true spirit of caring and sharing to help others also.
How the cards fall
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
laughing my butt off to what Brad shared.....just too dam funny, and hilarious even. Good ones Brad.
nikolasyue, no I am not a pro. I am at the bottom of this list compared to Brad, Pando, Oz, Wolfat, and many others on here. I simply try to learn a little bit everyday, and improve along the way.
Just as Pando does, good to notice that Oz also presents the viewpoint of keeping it as simple as possible. Just like all great athletes, they make it look so easy. Simply they know what works and what doesn't work. They focus on what works and they don't waste their time and energy on the stuff that doesn't work.