kramden
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Posts posted by kramden
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Anyone who has the answer please post.
Thanks in advance!!
In the spirit of this thread I have a ? ...
How do the numbers for the "events" work in a game like blackjack?
Just going on wins and losses, lets say, what would the stats be for 1 win in a row, 2 wins iar, three, etc...??
The same for the losses in BJ, or any other events that could be tracked?
Also lets assume we play perfect basic strategy , and also we play perfect NBJ.
Two different comparisons, but the point is that the odds of winning
any hand in BJ are less than the almost 50/50 odds of a bac hand.
So is it possible to figure out the math of ones twos threes ... iar??
Again just going on wins and losses. Or another way to look at it is if you were able to bet
on the player or the dealer in BJ, what would the "iar's" look like?
I am a member of the BJ forum also, but gave up the game a while back. However, it is a quicker, and less frustrating game so I wish to
spend some time applying some theories to it.
Thanks again , and I hope this question is given serious consideration as it could potentially change your
life. As its application in BAC has changed mine.
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Ellis has regularly tried to drive home the message that Baccarat "profits" are skyrocketing for the casinos.
And even James Bond might be surprised by these numbers recently released by the LAS VEGAS CONVENTION AND VISITORS ASSOCIATION.
(1) Las Vegas "Gaming Win" , in $$ billions, from all gambling devices ( Year, Total $$ profit "all gaming", BAC only $$ profit , # of BAC tables in Nevada)
1992 $6.2BB $291MM 59
2003 $9.6BB $366MM 90
2008 $11.5BB $773MM 194
2013 $12.0BB ( est) $1.56BB 285
Notes:
(a) Baccarat tables projected statewide open in 2014 = 331
(
In 2013, there were 1,347 blackjack tables on the LV strip generated $835 MM casino profit, while just 285 Baccarat tables generated $1.56 BB profit © Las Vegas Visitors from China have risen from 87,000 to over 280,000/year in the last 20 years
(d) Visas issued rose from 502 to 8,567 in 2013
(e) In 2013, all gamblers wagered a total of $11.3BB on Baccarat in Nevada ( compare it with the " gaming win" above)
(f) In 2012 , Chinese "visitors" to Vegas represented only 5.1% of the total amount of international visitors to Las Vegas
Conclusions, as I see them ( for fellow BTC participants , AND our forum's "founding fathers") ...I AM SURE THERE ARE MANY OTHERS ELLIS AND KEITH HAVE ALREADY CONTEMPLATED!
(aa) you better stay 'sharp' on your BAC skills if you want to "keep your shirt on"
(bb) BAC is the most important "profit" game to Vegas, outside of Slots ( but BJ players still far outnumber BAC players, so how long do you think it will be before you start seeing other BAC websites "popping up" ??)
(cc) there maybe a huge, huge "hole" in the market for those who can develop effective blackjack strategies for BJ, and promote them wisely and "with results"
(dd) While "WhatHappensInVegas,StaysInVegas" is likely Wikipedia fodder, and has a nice ring to it, we all know these "stats" are just a "microcosm" of what is happening all over the gambling capitals of the USA market...
IMPORTANT MESSAGE TO ELLIS AND KEITH:
(aaa) This is Pandora's box. Do you dare open it? Or do you leave well enough alone, keep making "patchwork repairs" and find a person like MP with the vim-and-vigor to carry the mantle...( there is no right or wrong answer ... everyone owns a business faces these types of ST/LT challenges/opportunities/potential pot-holes daily...)
(bbb) Can you handle/do you want to handle the traffic from 3,4,5 different websites? Likely that is what it would take to really amp-up the inflow/outflow needed to ensure market leadership....The outliers are used to feed into the main site...( Keith- not telling you anything you do not already know.)..Question is, do you want to "cater more" to those driving the business? Means Multi-lingual instruction, kind of like "baiting-the-hook" for Striper, vs. Catfish or Swordfish...It's just plain different...
I know this is "Just Vegas, Just Nevada" info...but, realistically, I am challenging the market leader to identify how it will maintain it's " leadership position" in a rapidly changing environment...
Like Clint Eastwood's Dirty Harry said many, many years ago:
" So, are you feeling lucky? Well are you?"
( live from Las Vegas...kachatz1...remember, I'd rather be "good", than just "lucky" )
Another top notch read, katchatz!
I have been reluctant to post a question lately pertaining to BJ, and now since you
bring up the game...
Im gonna put it in the chubby thread though cause it is not about NOR.
I would REALLY appreciate an answer from you and Ellis and anyone else.
Thank you!!
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Interesting,
I read a similar critique of this site on another site that i came across recently.
baccaratlabs.com
i agree, for what its worth, that maybe there needs to be a new plan or change of
direction for this site(which I do enjoy coming to) to thrive.
The Best to you!!!
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First, sorry but i just got a burst of excitement that I just had to post.
Such a great thread I thought I would raise it TTT.
I was lying in bed the other night when a Completely new idea hit me
like a ton of bricks...
It all revolved around yet another application of the info i this thread and the two
connected threads from Kat. Yep, it has to do with the "events" or the "iar's".
I just had to go back and chect a few things in this dead thread. Give it sort of a "dead cat bounce".
The key to winning this game in my experience, not opinion is in the events. And tou
may have guessed it, this concept includes "the runs".
just food for thought for those of you who always try to use your brains to better
your bac game and to avoid senility.
Keep pressing on men...
Its the events, jerry...
Good luck all.
Thanks again Kevin!
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Hey Mr. D.J.,
Nice to seethat there are still some people on this side of the
new forum.
Thougt it might be left for dead.
The parx is a sneaky place with those game switches. (been there, done that many times)
Watch out for those "3" bets.
Nice win! Keep it up!
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Hmm, I have to agree with way2fast. Nothing new here. Strange that it seems new to you. The forum hasn't changed. Maybe you are just reading more often??? Nobody's asking me what's wrong with me. But I'm getting a lot of calls and PMs asking what is wrong with you. You sound like Rip Van Winkle just waking up. Say whatever you want - answer any questions you want. But respect the forum and its members. Don't be saying things like: "This is what a real professional would do" Or "I'm going to search for a real Mathematician" as if there weren't any already here. Those are fighting words. We've discussed the short comings of Mathematicians here a zillion times. Makes members wonder if you've ever actually read the forum. And don't be making extravagant claims. Somebody might ask to see the shoes like they did with Oz. Sure, a few of the new guys got taken in. That's because they are new. Established members think you are trying to start your own forum. That's fine too. But get your own members and be forewarned that everything here is copyrighted. Several have tried that before. None were successful.
You were always a respected and responsible member before - always supported us. But then.....
You just refuse to accept my gift. You win,already! Lets move
on and teach some good lessons.
A real "pro" knows when to fold em.
Talk about lawyers. How about a whole bunch of them in a class action?
Will you send jacoby or myer? (i didnt see their screennames being
"used" here)
Dont "press" it with this crap.
And you couldn't afford the public defender.
When we met in AC i watched you among others play. It was a high stakes seminar but you
played greens. (yeah i know it was a saturday night-- right) You lost both shoes you
played.
You talk about comps in your manuals. in your posts. Now you are against them.
You were banned from AC yet you used a players card that night.
Maybe you need a vacation down to South Beach?
Need I go on?
You see , casino money can fund a million memberships for me.
Now folks, there is a 50/50 chance that this we be my last post
in this regard, as I am only here to help.
I will bet a 3-4-5 on the run though.
Hows that for a "twist"?
(lets move on)
kramden/santa fe
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I humbly submit that this makes me happy!
This is the first sign of new talk here in a long time.
It appears that some new tidbits are being talked about after being suggested.
The framework for new discussion has been set. We need to keep
talking about these things as a group to see if we can get somewhere
further down the road together.
Lets work together.
I mean this with all due respect to Ellis and crew!
Lets let the teacher teach for a bit and then follow up with questions and ideas.
I know we can do better if we all put our heads together.
This is what I paid for.
Afterthought...
Before anyone gets the wrong idea...
We have just been thru alot. It is not wise for me to give any more
opinions at this time.
Can you all see that?
Members please hash out the idea of what these three events could
could be used for. We already know alot. Keep the convo rolling.
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Sure! Here's one: What are you talking about "1's, 2s and 3s together"?
I humbly submit that this makes me happy!
This is the first sign of new talk here in a long time.
It appears that some new tidbits are being talked about after being suggested.
The framework for new discussion has been set. We need to keep
talking about these things as a group to see if we can get somewhere
further down the road together.
Lets work together.
I mean this with all due respect to Ellis and crew!
Lets let the teacher teach for a bit and then follow up with questions and ideas.
I know we can do better if we all put our heads together.
This is what I paid for.
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So now we are talking 1's, 2's and 3's together.
How lucky.
Can I answer anyones' questions?
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Posts number 10 and 12
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As I mentioned in post number ten.
etc.
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Wow - massive synchronicity in my bacc experience this week!
In light of having fun with the riddling, I can attest to the table biases going beyond NOR. Many of my local sessions are like a game of 3 card monte. Most of the players fall prey to the trickery, but an astute one won't fall for the casino's sleight of hand.
hallelujah!!
(since we are talking religion)
The most astute thing I have read in a month!!!!
Call me sarrom if you need a bunker to hide in.
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Just remember i did you a favor.
I always knew who you , Oz , and etc are.
I gave you an "out" and you should thank me. (you know my anger
display was what you anticipated)(a little gift for you)
This went from me trying to help your members to a chess game.
The shame is that the only ones who lose are the members.
Game over. You win. You are welcome.
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I'm not really saying hand strengh I am saying that they seem to to occur too often together a natural 8 against a natural 9 unless losing with a natural 8 just gets etched in your memory more. I am just wondering (and I emphasis just wondering ) if they could get 10s 8s and 9s to come out together then the game would be very hard to predict I would think.
Well let's hope they can't because then I am ruined!! LOL
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Thank you Sarrom.
Its a shame that the ship has sailed, but I REALLY tried.
Everything I posted had a meaning. Those who could figure it out would make better bac players. My posts were intended to teach a bit of discipline, cause you are gonna need it first and foremost. Next, patience... and on and on
Would you rather read a stale "writing" or an interesting one?
The public side is called "BTC", thats really why the posts were there. The private side is for specific paid forums/methods. Ellis was right about that.
If I continued to go on, things would only have gotten worse. What I have to say, which all wraps up at some point, is too much for gamblers to comprehend.
It is a new way of looking at practically everything. I thought we could all use it. (I use it on a regular basis, profitably)
I have a gift/or a disability which makes me notice the little things in every situation. I spent several years flat betting, noticing every little piece of minutia about the game. And I didnt discount anything. I have an extensive gambling archive of all types of writings and tests. Put it all together and its
gold. I tried to establish a bit of "street cred" by letting just a small amount of that out to pacify the more cynical members who have been thru the wringer with faulty systems and such. I tried not to overdo my observations cause I knew they couldn't handle it. I thought this out completely.
I am not a gambler at heart, that's why I like information presented like I present it. Gambler's want a quick, one size fits all robotic method. They dont want to think about things. Just bet it. (and again,I dont mean everyone)
Now let me ask a rhetorical question (one that does not require an answer, LOL)
When you enter into someone's classroom, for ex: like when I joined BTC, is it better to go in and act like you are smarter than the teacher?
My answer is no. You blend in with the average classmate. You let Ellis teach. You learn what he has to say.
You ask questions.
Another way of looking at it: lets say you are a working person and you paid off your home mortgage when you are lets say 40 years old. That is a GREAT accomplishment isnt it? It should be something to be proud of. But if you are smart, you wouldn't tell your coworkers at all. It can only bring on a negative outcome. There is NO upside for you. Do you all see that?
In life, and let me dare any of you to argue against this, it is sometimes a disadvantage to be intelligent. And the art (read:player advantage) of it comes by NOT showing anyone how intelligent you are.
exception:sometimes its worth it to let it out:hint
Peace all.
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CC,
i actually have not found the significance yet. Just theories. I just noticed how some
tens and naturals clump up many times.
I dont have any evidence on any of it. just was saying that i
mentioned it before.
its like we both have our ways, and i will bet that they are much different
i said "hmm" like a wisecrack.
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I remember that the meatballs at Carmine's were the size of baseballs and Ellis and I split the plate and couldn't finish them. ( and Keith bought lunch)....but what does that have to do with Baccarat? I am losing you, Dave. ...where are you heading? And why not return my messages?
Members, you will benefit only after all posts like these stop.
All posts from anyone who either does not "see the points" or More probably sees them
but has their agenda.
And i offered my only olive branch.
This time there needs to be real change in the discussion. Or everyone but myself loses out.
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advice guys: never play bac when you get aggravated:hint
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So MVS,
move this post too, i have no ill intentions here. just to help people
up their game.
But u need to "keep out the dogs" (no offense katchatz)
And stop all the crap! everyone here can learn something new every day.
So the short answer: I have alternatives which can be added to
any aresenal. They are my own thoughts played out by years of study.
They are different. And since they"do not belong inside with NOR", they are
out here.
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MVS cont.
Members are bullied by guys like big prick who NEVER contributes anything
of value. Never.
If i were a perceptive person with a genious memory, I would summise
he is a total loser, cynically beaten down by years of hard knocks.
By the wAy, did i mention that the first time i met mr D. About
TWO years ago, hed had on converse type sneakers and ate spaghetti and
meatballs for dinner. The meatballs were huge, he said.
That goes for rhe other one too, RUBE... limbaugh.
Never anything constructive or to help.
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Kramden,
I'm not sure why you keep posting these kinds of questions here in the public area, but that's your choice.
If I saw that at the table, I would immediately jump in with OTB4L.
Look at the count. Look at the lack of 1's. Look at the two's.
Either of the Fx's beats this. S40/Mx would work too.
This particular start is showing a lot of neutral, so go with what you've got.
I'm trying to figure out why you keep posting up these questions here instead of in the more appropriate areas?
MVS (just my two cents worth)
Hello MVS,
I respect you alot. always did. You have wisdom from afar.
I can tell by the way you post.
So, it goes back and forth for me with you know who saying i am either talking against
NOR principles or i am saying the same thing as NoR teaches.
Which is it?
My thougts are being purposely mislead by those who are worried now about their
business income. When they KNOW that i have all valid points.
They even use my points weeks after i allude to them. And introduce them
non challantly so noone catches it.
So there is no respect for me by the "pros". Believe me, they have respect and hey cant
believe their eyes.
You know exactly what i mean . You are a smart man who gets it.
So in order to help all the members, even the ones who cant afford NORyet, i post it out here.
I would much rather have an HONEST exchange of ideas on the inside.
But there is no respect by too many. And too many others are too
afraid to speak.
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Yo kramden I gotcha but that's how I would play it......I need a card, get organized etc......so I have no history of table for my 4d I'm going into this blind but it looks like a run of 2s to me......might turn into s40 or a obt4l shoe......won't know till I write it all down.....
Now you know how I would play it, how would you play it if you were me trying to tell you what you wanna hear? Lol just messing with ya.....
Actually I saw this shoe yesterday it goes on for 5 p then 4b then p b p then 6 b
Good question for me trbfla,
I guess I will have to think about it for a bit...
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Team,
I have been messing around with the significance of B vs P | TBL vs OTB4L | OO vs TT | and of course O vs R |. This thought is just to get a conversation going and see what you think, as I do not have enough games laid out but initially I am finding that B vs Player is the strongest statistic and that each of the others are secondary to which side to play.
For example if I look at a game from a Banker or Players disparity side of things unless it is a game where there are 20 bankers then followed by 20 players. The point being that if you played 20 bankers in a row it would be hard to play 20 players right after that unless you are using the O | R as the primary indicator.
O vs R should be given the next weight as it determines the over all complexion of the game followed by tbl vs OTB4l which effectively tracks disparity between 2 and and 3s and oo | TT 3s and 4s. We do that in SAP and perhaps it maybe easier to track those two that way wouldn't it? Granted in a longer run it may not effect twos and threes and threes and fours but wouldn't the OR do the same thing?
Also in a real life game I can't help but notice that we should be given credence and track what side has a two card natural more often. We totally ignore it as not significant. I am wondering coupled with another statistical such as B vs P and OR we may get a more statistical significant metric.
As a final thought with the OR count wouldn't that give you an indication later is the game what the possibility that the game will change sides and offer a potential one in a row?
Just a few thoughts?
Keith
The idea that the naturals, or other signs of "hand strength" is very significant, is valid. I actually posted about it a few weeks back.
And Katchatz1 mentioned looking at it on his Red Rock shoe.
How significant? hmm?
Its lucky that more people are coming up with this idea.
So, yes I agreed
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If I just walked up to this table.....and saw this on the tote board, then I bet b because of the run of 2's. However I flat bet one unit because I'm am not in profit yet. This is a new bet, I haven't filled out my 4d card yet so just a one unit bet for now until I profit. But if I was in profit it's a 1-2, maybe one day a 1-3 when I have learned all that I am to learn
Nice explanation.
The only thing is for everyone, please dont say what you think I want to hear as the answer. (i am not saying that you are trb)
Remember I am a newbie and you guys play NOR or SAP or whatever.
And now I would like to see many more answers guys, Puh puh please!
There is no right or wrong and I have no judgement at all.
Thanks!
In 2013, there were 1,347 blackjack tables on the LV strip generated $835 MM casino profit, while just 285 Baccarat tables generated $1.56 BB profit
Chubby Checker...perhaps it was Ellis, after all
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
Thank you for the reply.
So then I will believe that there is no mathematical way to figure out
the probabilities of dealer vs player wins and losses iar? I believe that is what you are saying.
The application is not the question as I have my own. Just the ones, twos , threes, etc in a row.
But it would seem that there is no way to figure that out.?
Just trying to turn another negative expectaion game into a positive one.
Thank you!!