Edgonsal
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Posts posted by Edgonsal
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Thanks MVS,
Is there a sample score card you are aware of that I can reference that shows a play-by-play to see:
1. When to start betting (e.g @ + or -3 OR count).
2. When to change to OTB4L?
etc......
I think if there were example cards to view I could grasp the concepts even better.
Glenn
If you go to the upper right hand corner and type "practice shoes" in the Advanced Search box - you should find some shoes there to learn from. Read everything that's offered and you'll be on the right track. Good luck!!!!
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HI Keith,
I think I am a NOR legacy player having purchased NOR several months ago and purchased the recent Webinar.
I cannot access the 4D forum . I see it marked Private in the list of forums , When I try to enter the forum anyway,
The forum shows a line telling me there are noposts.
Can you fix this for me please ?
Thanks in advance
Wendel.
Hi Keith.
I have tried to access this forum as well with no luck. Can you please advise how to gain access? Thanks, Ed
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Best wishes to Ellis for a full and speedy recovery
, Ed Gonsalves -
Hi I've been getting back into BAC and can't wait to the 4d comes out but I'm still learning Nor from scratch. I went to one of my local casinos today and recorded one of these 2 shoes. I'm trying to identify the bias in each one to play Nor with. The first one looks good for s40 but looks like there would be crazy mode switching in the middle and the second one looks totally chaotic and don't know which system would be best. I'm thinking maybe the casinos in my city might actually have random cards but i'm not 100% on that but if they are would it be better to do net betting with OvR or BvP? Here's the two shoes..first one is a complete shoe not counting ties. Second one is only half a shoe. (*I didn't know how to post it by 20 plays per column as I without having broken some of the runs, how would I do this)
B1213121121114111113142432112121132121
Shoe 2
B123555214311111211
If someone could give me a play by play with what system(also with a 2 or 3hi because I'm conservative), would greatly be appreciated as it would shorten my learning curve. Thanks:smile:
The first shoe looks like an OTB4L - you could go OTR after 2 losses in a row for one bet than right back to OTB. (Would work very well with all of those 2's and 3's) The reason for going OTR after two is that nothing went over 4 iar.
The second shoe would work very well with S40M1 (TBL) those three 5 iar's would get you a quick win after only 21 hands. (You only had three 2's in this shoe so you would be winning most of your 1's, 3's 4's and 5's. You would lose to the 2's that follow 2 iar or more but would win your first 1 of 2 iar bet following a 1)
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I would like to know if there is anyway around a 5 iar into singles for otb. You will see in the show I am +7 at hand 17 with 1 unit bets
B214113125
11112511111121
231435
You can see that the 5 iar into a 1111 was pretty killer as I went OTR on hand 21 and then switched back to OTB when it failed, then another 3 bets lost.
Anyhow, it looks easy after the fact as it goes into singles from hands 20-40, then it goes back to otb.
I mean if you want to do an 8 bet, then of course you can still come up, but that wouldn't of happened.
Also if you planned on switching to s40 around early 20s, you then are faced with the 5iar and a lost 3 bet which wouldn't be good as well.
Thanks all
Hey kileau,
ALL SHOES always look easy after the fact. It's what we do at the table that counts.
How soon did you start betting in this shoe?
OTB does look good in the first seven hands.
However, after the first 12 hands - you had three 1's (MC), one 2, one 3 and one 4. I would be thinking S40M1 (TBL) here.
In your first twenty plays you only had two 2's which - you still win 2 bets in your 4iar, 2 bets in your 3iar and 3 bets in your 5iar.
Your next 21hands - had only two 2's again. Still strong for S40M1.
Your next 19 hands had only one 2. S40M1 is for low 2's only 5 in your whole shoe.
The other point to always consider is when to go OTR in OTB - its always your option to go OTR (for one bet only) after 2 losses in a row (rather than three) if that's what the shoe is showing you.
If you keep S40M1 in mind - you should have an easier time.
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now you know how i can everyday come forum and figure things our even without manual
You're missing out on a lot without the manual to guide you. Best of luck
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How do you post your picture on here? I uploaded it and it's in my profile, but it won't post? Hope that someone knows how, Thanks, Ed
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I didn't ******BIG SHOUT OUT TO KEITH*****
Ellis just replies to the threads - that's why
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A modest gambler is normally a winning gambler
.We all learn from someone and now we can all learn from you and the other members of OUR forum.
Such a great concept!! Keep sharing buddy - Thanks
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Awesome post Dark,
Motivating and true!!!
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Great post OZ,
I love progressive thinking. After all, We are only picking either player or banker. Heads or tails in a coin toss
Money management is what wins in the casino!!! I try to remember that at the table before I enter what I like
to call "The 51st state - The State of Confusion" LOL
Picking Player or Banker is centuries old now - I wonder how many have gotten in right?
Thanks for your input. Would be fun to meet you sometime
Ed -
Guys, good thinking BUT you are not thinking it all the way through. You don't need a partner. Anything a partner can do, you can do by yourself net betting. You end up with the same score as two partners end up with but you only bet half as much money getting there so you double your PA.
You need to go back and read one of my explanations of net betting. I've written them several times on both the public and private forums so I'm sure you can find one if you look.
But in short, suppose you end up with a 4 bet on B and your partner ends up with a 2 bet on P. Your bets would both be 2 on B. You end up with exactly the same score totals but you've bet far less money. There is nothing a partner can do for you that you can't do by yourself. And if two partners each net bet both end up with the same total score as two partners get combined. So with net betting you basically make twice as much money while betting half as much. And it is VERY easy once you get the hang of it. Probably less than 1% of Bac players know about net betting. I developed this back in the '90s. Since then a Baccarat partner has been totally obsolete. You are your own partner.
Remember that guy Kachatz was talking about at Mo Sun that was teaching that partners system that was advertized all over the internet. As soon as I saw that I knew the guy was a beginner amateur. How could a learned system designer still be advocating a partner when net betting makes a partner totally obsolete??? These scammers are a dime a dozen. Maybe he wasn't a scammer. Maybe he was just incompetent. Either way.....
I've played at the table with Dave Gunas at Mohegan a few times. (Never saw him win - Go figure????). When I saw him, he was playing around with dragon bets. He hit a 30 to 1 which put him up and a couple of ties. He didn't leave when he hit a reasonable goal so they took his money. He is very personable and has great energy!!!! Maybe I just saw him on a bad day?
I've used net betting on my scorecards and in the casino. It easy to do and it works. I've done it for years now when trying out new approaches. Personally I enjoy playing together with a partner. Helps break up the boredom
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Hey Guys & Gals,
Just want to share some thoughts about the NOR manual and more importantly this private forum.
First the manual : - It can be a bit much at first to digest until you break it down to the basics.
IMO - it's update time (maybe an online addendum with some illustrated sample shoes and the most recent changes)
I personally believe that the manual should be updated every couple of years to keep up with the times.
As the quality of our players improve, so should our manual for learning.
I found the illustrated Sands shoes very useful
Also a direct reference or even better the actual illustration of the sample shoes for all current 3 NOR systems would make it easier for all to understand.The concept of NOR is great and very logical. Ellis is a true professor by leading us to learn from studying these pages again & again. Not simply giving us all of the answers - making you figure it out and ingrain the material in your brain as second nature. Hope I don't sound too much like a teacher. After all, I have been accused of lecturing on occasion LOL
That's my manual review - hope that I'm not out of line.
The Forum :
This has been such a pleasure and soooooo helpful working together. A huge THANK YOU to ELLIS for all of his hard work and dedication
for teaching us ALL!!!!!
The members on here are truly a class act and always eager to help. THANKS TO ALL
IMO - If we all share our ideas than we can really limit those shoes from hell from kicking our butts!
We should post some bad shoes and ask each other for thoughts and experiences of how to think outside of the box to either beat them or at least survive them - MM, when to switch systems or leave the table. Let's make this a common practice - IT WILL HELP US ALL!!!
Post some good shoes and why they worked. What prompted us to choose that System and why.
Dr. E (Ellis) will always aid us in our thinking and clarify the best approach. (He won't lead us astray)
Let's continue to make this place the best site for "BEATING THE CASINO"
Thanks for reading this and hopefully keeping this thread going by adding your thoughts:) Ed
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Here's an interesting thought, since two system rant the same and will sometimes agree with each other..... In team play with two people with joint bankroll, perhaps it may be possible for one to use SM40M1 and the other play OTB4L simultaneously the outcome of the units won/loss differential or positive would be interesting to test or observe if it can actually work?
Or...
If one were clever enough to track both system simultaneously and play the differential bet units from both system,.... And select one system over the other, hmmmm.... Complex, but you never know..
Just food for thought, comments?
CC
Most shoes that I tested worked well with a 2 man system Usually +8 to +10units within 35-40 hands.
The bet progression is the tricky part. I like the 1,2 but maybe a 1,2,3 U1D1 would be better?
Some shoes would have been better with S40 & OTB rather than S40M1.
Scorecard is easy O/R (if you want) P - B "space for score" S40 column - OTB column CIRCLE YOUR WINS and units bet in S40 & OTB columns
I'm thinking of a 16 unit bankroll for two people. Try it and let me know what you think
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Quick question: Since S40M1 likes everything except TTs, and since OTB4L loves TTs; from a pure logic perspective, are these not really the only two systems necessary to win? I know that you talk about having many tools, but it would seem that these two tools cover virtually every possible situation. The key question would be when or if to change from one to the other within a shoe.
You bring up a good point. I have been going over my recently played cards trying to combine the OTB & S40M1.
Works pretty well on over 80% of all shoes. I played both sides for both sides to win with a 1,2 progression
I Bet 1 unit on the side that just lost, a little tricky to do so I put both columns on my score card.
I tried it out at Foxwoods $10 table (was up 2 units from the last shoe) I figured that I would only be down 6 units if it lost - no biggie.
The shoe B1311223112 I was on the wrong side for every bet.
If I played S40M1 alone I would have been +4
If I played OTB I would have been up between +2 to +5units (depending on when you go OTR). I do after 2 losses.
I should have only played one way!!!
I've thought about waiting after a 3 iar to cut out the some of the losses with both systems combined.
There is no Holy grail, but we're trying
LOL What are your thoughts on this? -
Hey Ed...I think you may have got confused between U1D1B2 and U1D1M2...U!D1M2 still goes down to a 1 bet but follows every 1 bet (win or lose) with a mandatory 2 Bet.
I've never played U1D1B2 myself...Indeed I can only remember ever seeing it mentioned once in the NOR+ Thread....but I gather that it is played as you describe with a lowest bet of 2
Take care
Oz
Thanks for clearing that up for me
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Right! You guys bring up a VERY important point!
We talk so much about how to maneuver your way through BAD shoes that we leave no time to talk about how best to Exploit GOOD shoes.
Much like the situation Ed found himself in at Foxwood a couple days ago.
But, whenever we find ourselves with very high 1's (S40 EXPLOIT)
or
very high 2s (OTB4L exploit)
Remember that HALF of all shoes have high 1's
and half of all shoes have high 2s.
So Exploit situations come up a lot more often than most realize
Such casino shuffle mistakes come up a lot especially when the casino is reacting to their worst enemy - super streak!
They often over react and go all the way to super chop.
Now, let me let you in on a little secret!
Any time you are thinking of basing at 2 instead of 1, You are probably better off basing at THREE.
For the very same mathematical reasons we discussed in basic 1234 NOR
A good 234 shoe is a better 345 shoe because 345 imposes less risk than 234.
Remember we used 234 only as a stepping stone to 345 and with sound mathematical reason.
But it ends at 345. 456 is a definite no no.
But since we were discussing only basic NOR and not NOR+ we did not discuss 345 U1D1 or put simpler:
U1D1B3
But we SHOULD have discussed it so lets discuss it now
U1D1B3 is our MOST aggressive progression and should be reserved for very high 1's (S40)
and very high 2s (OTB4L)
or both (S40)
Ed, do us all a favor and go back and try your recent Foxwood day basing at 3.
Play the same as you did - S40 in S40 shoes and OTB4L in OTB4L shoes
except base at 3 with U1D1
And let us know what happens.
I'll bet that some of you shoes go into the 40s - maybe even 50s
But you will see that basing at 3 in those high 1's and 2s situations is even less risky than basing at 1.
Try it!
Your right Ellis - the +28 shoe turns to +65 (3,4,5 always start again at 3 even after losing the full progression)
The plus +30 shoe turned to a + 59 (I feel confident enough to start at play 2 if I know the table bias in advance)
I should also mention that I go back to a 3 bet after any win. U1D1 would add an extra 5 - 7 units to the final score.
I prefer to go OTR after 2 losses in a row (seems to help more with the ZZ's than SS) and play the on again/off again for the long runs.
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Hi Mr.Davis and all of you who know answer to my question,
I have been focused on learning how to play systems of NOR and didn't pay attention on all the different money progs to go along with. Now i am about ready to learn them. Would you please teach me how? Especially the U1D1M2, and the U1D2 ? Please explain them in simple words since English is my second language, and it will be very helpful if you can attach samples a long with your explaination. Thank you so much and wish you all well always.
Hi Tlam62,
U1D1M2 means that you go up 1 unit when you lose and drop it down one unit after you win. M2 means a mandatory 2 unit bet as your lowest bet.
Example is when you bet 2 units (minimum bet of 2 units - NOT ONE UNIT) on P or B and lose - your next bet is 3 units on P or B you lose again - your next bet would be 4 units on P or B and you win - you drop down 1 unit. (4 -1 = 3) so your next bet is three units on P or B and you win again and drop down 1 unit (3 - 1 = 2) now your back to your mandatory 2 unit bet.
U1D2 means that you start out with a 1 unit bet and drop down 2 units after a win. Example would be to win a 3 unit bet - you just lost 2 in a row which put you at a 3 unit bet, you win so you drop down 2 units back to a 1 unit bet (3 - 2 = 1)
You should look at the universal baccarat glossary of terms
Good luck, Ed
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You're in jail?
Ha Ha - I'm still a fugitive in the Baccarat world. LOL
BTW - I know this thread is for S40M1 but wanted to share these 2 shoes.
played at huge bias table at Foxwoods yesterday for OTB4L
1ST Shoe - B2432132111 P1121212212221 B1221221121222 B1 (scores + 28 units with only a 2 high bet then back to 1 win or lose)
2nd shoe - P3122131111211 P22221223112 P1212133241 B1131 (scores + 30 units with only a 2 high bet)
These were hand shuffled cards at a no commission table.
Table selection is SOOOOOOO crucial. NOR is my head now! Thanks Ellis
The table right next to me was a strong side table for 3 straight shoes in a row with common runs of 6 iar's & more all over the board.
It's my pleasure to post these shoes for a great example of OTB4L and hope that it helps, Ed
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Exactly right Ed and they DO have that option and we encourage that. Keith told me last night it will be available shortly. It would be nice if everybody got a copy. Then we could discuss it openly on the forum. BTW if I seem to be picking on you, I'm not - not at all. That is not something we do at BTC. And you are one of our best supporters. Relax, Decaf!
Thanks Ellis,
I just amended my last post (sent from my cell). I do totally support this forum. Oh well, back to business as usual. I'm off to Mohegan first & then Foxwoods! BTW - as you mentioned, everyone is always trying to figure out my scorecard LOL
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Right! Unfortunately we have to make money. Otherwise there would be no site. Webinars is just a cheaper way to do seminars - cheaper for you guys and cheaper for us. And right, Ed did donate that game so he did see it played out. And Ed is a very sharp guy, certainly sharp enoughb to understand it once he saw it played out. But Ed has his own way of playing regardless of what I say. And he seems to be doing OK with it so far. So I'm not surprised that he would elect not to attend the Webinar. What can I say after losing the first 2 shoes at Sands. I shouldn't have been playing at all that night but I didn't have that choice.
You know, when I played full time I had a test I ALWAYS did before each session - religiously. If I couldn't count down a deck of cards in 13 seconds and tell you what card you removed, I didn't play. That night I couldn't have counted down a deck in a half hour. But I did snap out of it and ended up OK. Unfortunately not many were still playing with me. But those who were did pretty good.
That's the problem with seminar play sessions. You can't pick your time and place and game. And that is half the battle. Ordinarily I wouldn't be caught dead playing on a Sat night. It is suicidal. Bac and BJ both are best played weekday mornings and worst played Saturday nights.
But it is not ALL about money.
Keith and I discussed haveing a free Webinar (at our expense) on NOR basics. Unfortunately we have too many newer members that are still totally lost.
Ellis,
I have worked for myself for lots of years now and still don't like doing things for free.. However, sometimes I make the decision to do so for the greater good and the potential of refferals and the opportunities that may come from it.
I read these logs on a daily basis and go back to the manual often.
Learning to trust NOR 100% will take time for me but I'm confident that with enough practice, that I will be a better player with casino money
in my pocket on a regular basis. That should be our goal every time we hit the tables!
I know that you are a very smart & logical thinker, other wise I wouldn't have joined in the first place.
You may be misunderstanding my intent - IMO, both you and Keith want us all to win, correct?
We should all aspire to play as well as both you and Keith do. You both know how to read the shoes and adjust accordingly.
I'm simply stating that from one business owner to another - please don't penalize the other members of this forum
For not attending the first time around.
It's not my place to speak for anyone else on this site, but I hope that other members will chime in on their need to have the latest winning formula at their disposal. And of course to be fair to the members who attended - PAY FOR IT.
I'm not asking for anything for free. As you profess often - this is the best approach to Baccarat
And the best site. Let's all keep up the good work and learn as much as we can from each other.
Thanks for all of your hard work
Ed -
Exactly right bluetri! That is why I said I think it would be better if I correspond with the Webinar attendees in private. That is only fair to the attendees. The little bit said about how to play S40M1 here on the open forum isn't going to help non attendees. In fact, now they know just enough to get them into trouble if they attempt it.
I did consider posting my solution to 2s here because it would be pretty much meaningless to non attendees. But then I thought better of that idea.
I'll do a mass email to the attendees as soon as Keith can give me the Email list. But the more I thought about it, the more I realized that in the Webinar example, I didn't play 2s the best way possible.
Ellis,
That's all fine but, if you want to be fair to all on here - than they should have the option of purchasing the webinar as well to improve their play.
I'm sure that if the players who attended post posative results from the webinar that
Other members will be interested in obtaining it and in turn increasing your overall
Participation at the next event. Win/Win
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This is just something that I wrote about. I played that shoe and commented on what Ellis came up with to beat it. It wasn't anything released by anyone that did the webinar. The material covered yesterday should help you win. I'm sure over time that everyone will benefit from the webinar.
Good luck to you and win some money
Ed -
We should remember, guys, that specifics about the webinar and the new concepts shouldn't be given in open forum.
Hey Bluetri,
Although I didn't do this seminar, (I did the Bethlehem trip) S40M1 is very obvious to me just by looking at Ellis's scorecard. I totally understand that this site is a business, however we should keep in mind that if we all unite then we have a much better chance of helping each other "Beat The Casino".
, Ed Gonsalves
hard shoe
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
I played a shoe at Mohegan Sun in CT Monday morning and just tried it with 4D
B1131211221221
P1122131171
P112132312112
P1411
I tried to predict the next outcome based on the counts (I wrote a "P" or "B" next to each column for each hand result) and picked the majority of the next predicted outcome and then circled the correct previous column result. It was well over 50% correct in predicting.
BTW if the 4 columns (P/B - O/R - O/T - OO/TT) showed 2 P's and 2 B's - I skipped the bet and recorded the result.
The strongest bet in this shoe was TTBL reaching a plus 10 at times. I wouldn't have even looked at that if not for 4D. Food for thought
I realize that this isn't the exact way that 4D should be played but I just wanted to post this shoe for practice and share my thoughts.
Comments and/or suggestions are always appreciated