newbacplayer
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Posts posted by newbacplayer
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Hope you feel better, Ellis. Take care.
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Didn't receive invite email. gb
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Would love to, but I'm not in town this weekend.
So are NONE of the members in Vegas this week and interested in playing MDB+? -
After some trials on paper, this skip 36 system beats 1s, 2s, 5s, 6s. . . etc. Breaks even on 4s. Loses only on 3s. Pretty robust except in shoes with a lot of 3s.
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posted in error
Ha, that of course is the million dollar question with net betting.But I'll show you my favorite way of net betting that has made me a LOT of money.
It is called The Skip System and it makes runs your friend. I'm showing you the 36 version which means you skip after a losing 3 or 6 entry. Then that side waits for a 2iar to resume. This way you make big money on the common sporadic 1's and just about everything else that can happen.
Both sides bet U1D2M2
M2 means mandatory 2. You ALWAYS enter a 2 after the 1 regardless whether the 1 wins or loses.
It is a 4 Hi system so if you should ever get to a 6 entry (very rare) you oppose it with a 2.
Your goal is +20.
I played the same shoe except I added a 6iar near the bottom so you could see how it handles runs.
Note that we make money on every run in the shoe except we broke even on the 4. We also killed the Sporadic 1's.
The longer a run is the more we win. We also kill ZZ and TT runs. And we also kill garbage.
It is perfect to go with MDB+ because it bets nearly every hand from play 3.
It also handles pretty big disparity. Note that we have 21 Players vs only 16 Banks.
Also note that we are at +12 and only half way through a full shoe.
Also note that our score never went negative!
[ATTACH]3077[/ATTACH]
OK so how did I arrive at my score?
You subtract the low entry from the high entry and only bet the difference always on the side of the higher entry.
Tied entries - you have no bet that play.
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Question for consideration: TB4L seems to beat virtually everything but the terrible twos with a 1-2-4 progression, and OTB4L beats the terrible twos and does well with threes as well with a simple 1-2-3 progression. I'm wondering if it makes some sense to consider these two systems [as opposed to three systems] when examining the SAP numbers? Perhaps this has already been considered in some of the older forums related to game play, but logically it would at least seem to make sense. gb
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As another member of the class, it was great to have the opportunity to sit down after a live shoe and dissect exactly what happened both good and bad, examining SAP counts, and where decision making faltered. Speculator9 was quite insightful as were Keith and Mike. Very fruitful in advancing my understanding. Wish I could be there in August, but will be out of town. gb
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There was a code provided by Keith in one of the forum posts. Search around a bit. I don't recall it at this moment. Or contact Keith.
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S40M3 is deeply appealing with the capacity to win 1s, 2s, and 3s. The -6 is harder to deal with. Perhaps the 102 progression Ellis described could solve that latter problem.
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I was looking into buying a condo in Vegas , but now have second thoughts due to reviews of the city and the high crime rate.
Appreciate any locals comments .
thanks
Many areas of Vegas are quite safe. Depends very much on where you live.
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Agreed. High 2s and 4s, but especially high 3s and 4s are the most problematic. gb
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My Apology if this sounds too stupid (and simplish) but I read the MDB forum and couldn't understand where are the definitions of BaS40, BaOTB4L, BaS40M3 and BaS40M1 if I want to understand the following:
1's and 2s = BaS40 very strong
2s and 3s = BaOTB4L very strong
3s and 4+s = BaS40M1 very strong
1's and 3s = a weak BaS40M1 see dean's shoe #1
1's and 4+ = a strong BaS40M1 see Dean's shoe #2 played BaS40M1
2s and 4+ = a weak BaOTB4L
I think if many of you guys put yourself in shoes of someone who is new you will realize how horriffying and dificult it would be to understand these.
Is there are manual for SAP and above terminologies (BaS40, BaOTB4L, BaS40M3 and BaS40M1). If not is there a forum for SAP where they are explained.
As far as I can understand the definition and comprehension of these items are very important in order to be successful in MDB. I am aiming to win 2 units average per shoe and two shoes a night.
Please help.
Kind Regards
Greetings: You can find the rules for BaS40M1 and BaS40 in the thread labeled "Introduction to Million dollar bac." The rules for BaOTB4L are found throughout the thread "BaOTB4L+5 Practice." A few key posts within these two threads will give you the rules for each of the three systems. Hope this helps. gb
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All good questions Bobby!
When you first start the shoe you are mostly interested in what is high:
1's = BaS40
2s = OTB4L
3+ = BaS40M1
But very soon after you start up you are interested in the highest two SAP counts
1's and 2s = BaS40 very strong
2s and 3s = BaOTB4L very strong
3s and 4+s = BaS40M1 very strong
1's and 3s = a weak BaS40M1 see dean's shoe #1
1's and 4+ = a strong BaS40M1 see Dean's shoe #2 played BaS40M1
2s and 4+ = a weak BaOTB4L
And that covers the whole waterfront.
Usually 2 out of 3 and sometimes 3 out of 3 systems will win
So we are looking for the FASTEST way to get to +5
Currently we are looking at play 15 as the deciding factor as to whether or not to go for more than +5
That is assuming you started at play 2. If not, it's 15 plays from wherever you started.
I'm wondering if maybe I'm being too tight about that. Maybe it should be 20???
I think our best bet is to change systems as soon as SAP shows a new high or even a new 2nd high.
But I think we also need to consider up and coming counts on the move. That's our early warning that the shoe is changing. So is our score.
On the other hand we need to think twice about changing from a system that is winning soundly.
The thing is practice. Practice makes perfect.
But I'd like to point something out here.
No one has yet posted a shoe that loses to the overall MDB concept. And most, more than one system wins. Some were tough and some were easy but they all won so far. That has to be a good sign.
Ellis: I know you've been busy, and I so appreciate the play by play shoes you've posted so far!! Thanks. As I mentioned a few posts ago, this particular shoe was a challenge due to a three followed by a six followed by two twos [then the P5 split across the two lines]. I'm new to applying SAP, but this particular combination was a challenge for me partly due to the losses up front. I would welcome your ideas and comments. Greg
B13622114
P13143125
P1
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I've been playing a whole pile of old shoes with this new method, with very positive results. The combination of SAP with the Ba+5 methods seems to be very conservative with low potential losses and high likelihood of hitting the +5. Great results.
I would like to hear feedback on the following shoe, as I'm having quite a bit of challenge with it:
B13622114
P13143125
P1
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Here is a sample scoresheet for your use as you see fit. It is designed for the MDB+5 with SAP columns. Hope it is helpful for practice and/or play. I can make updates over time if the system requires a modification. gb
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Which system for shoes that have higher 3s and 4s and low 1s and 2s?
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Thanks! Excellent play by play with clear explanations!
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I don't know if it's the "proper" way, but it's the way I did it. Lol! You know how some are on here, if it didn't come from Ellis it's just a pointless post.
My initial thoughts on this particular shoe are, as you begin to see the SAP count get established by the middle of the first column, to start BaS40M1 with the rising 1's line and increase in the +4 line, but as the shoe progresses towards the end of the second column I see a trend moving toward the 2's and 3's line so I'm looking for a system change to BaOTB4L that I think would carry you well through the third column. What do you think?
I appreciate your thoughts and ideas!!! Thanks for posting and keeping things current, accurate, and timely. Greg
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Thanks Ellis. All of this additional explanation today is helping quite a lot. Greg
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I calculated some SAP values for several older shoes I'd played and found the information quite revealing in terms of what systems would be weak in playing the shoe. Question: what are the multipliers for? Can you explain what they are communicating, as opposed to simply a count of 2s, 3s, 4s, etc. ? Thanks.
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Thanks, Ellis. That makes sense. I would very much like to see a sample shoe scored in this way, with marked decision points regarding system of choice and change of system! Thanks, Greg
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After running a few shoes with the 1230123, I would have to say that the secondary progression is way too low to accommodate the 6 unit loss that started it. You would almost need something like 1230468 from the numbers I've seen on several shoes. The nice thing is that the secondary progression is far more rare than in the other SB40 systems. gb
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I'm curious as to whether the concept of a SAP count in a random shoe is as meaningful? It seems to predict the opposite of what the secondary bet progression is designed to take advantage of the the +5 systems. In other words, the secondary bet is for the previous event to be different than the current event, whereas SAP appears to suggest that perhaps the previous event will repeat. Any thoughts? Greg
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I think the unique challenge with BaOTB4L in this secondary progression model is that if you have a situation where the ST and ZZ runs both require a secondary progression, by the time either get the first 1 unit bet on the secondary, you are down 6. If both are at the point of the first 1 unit bet of a secondary progression, you are down 12 units total. This is hard to make up in the secondary betting process, but exacerbated in BaOTB4L due to having two separate secondary progressions running at one time.
Ellis New Forum
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
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Thanks for your perspective and outlining the future of the forum.