newbacplayer

Thanks for your perspective and outlining the future of the forum.

Hope you feel better, Ellis. Take care.

Didn't receive invite email. gb

Would love to, but I'm not in town this weekend.

After some trials on paper, this skip 36 system beats 1s, 2s, 5s, 6s. . . etc. Breaks even on 4s. Loses only on 3s. Pretty robust except in shoes with a lot of 3s.

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Question for consideration: TB4L seems to beat virtually everything but the terrible twos with a 1-2-4 progression, and OTB4L beats the terrible twos and does well with threes as well with a simple 1-2-3 progression. I'm wondering if it makes some sense to consider these two systems [as opposed to three systems] when examining the SAP numbers? Perhaps this has already been considered in some of the older forums related to game play, but logically it would at least seem to make sense. gb

As another member of the class, it was great to have the opportunity to sit down after a live shoe and dissect exactly what happened both good and bad, examining SAP counts, and where decision making faltered. Speculator9 was quite insightful as were Keith and Mike. Very fruitful in advancing my understanding. Wish I could be there in August, but will be out of town. gb

There was a code provided by Keith in one of the forum posts. Search around a bit. I don't recall it at this moment. Or contact Keith.

S40M3 is deeply appealing with the capacity to win 1s, 2s, and 3s. The -6 is harder to deal with. Perhaps the 102 progression Ellis described could solve that latter problem.

Many areas of Vegas are quite safe. Depends very much on where you live.

Agreed. High 2s and 4s, but especially high 3s and 4s are the most problematic. gb

Greetings: You can find the rules for BaS40M1 and BaS40 in the thread labeled "Introduction to Million dollar bac." The rules for BaOTB4L are found throughout the thread "BaOTB4L+5 Practice." A few key posts within these two threads will give you the rules for each of the three systems. Hope this helps. gb

Ellis: I know you've been busy, and I so appreciate the play by play shoes you've posted so far!! Thanks. As I mentioned a few posts ago, this particular shoe was a challenge due to a three followed by a six followed by two twos [then the P5 split across the two lines]. I'm new to applying SAP, but this particular combination was a challenge for me partly due to the losses up front. I would welcome your ideas and comments. Greg B13622114 P13143125 P1

I've been playing a whole pile of old shoes with this new method, with very positive results. The combination of SAP with the Ba+5 methods seems to be very conservative with low potential losses and high likelihood of hitting the +5. Great results. I would like to hear feedback on the following shoe, as I'm having quite a bit of challenge with it: B13622114 P13143125 P1

Here is a sample scoresheet for your use as you see fit. It is designed for the MDB+5 with SAP columns. Hope it is helpful for practice and/or play. I can make updates over time if the system requires a modification. gb MDB+5 scoresheet.pdf

Which system for shoes that have higher 3s and 4s and low 1s and 2s?

Thanks! Excellent play by play with clear explanations!

I appreciate your thoughts and ideas!!! Thanks for posting and keeping things current, accurate, and timely. Greg

Thanks Ellis. All of this additional explanation today is helping quite a lot. Greg

I calculated some SAP values for several older shoes I'd played and found the information quite revealing in terms of what systems would be weak in playing the shoe. Question: what are the multipliers for? Can you explain what they are communicating, as opposed to simply a count of 2s, 3s, 4s, etc. ? Thanks.

Thanks, Ellis. That makes sense. I would very much like to see a sample shoe scored in this way, with marked decision points regarding system of choice and change of system! Thanks, Greg

After running a few shoes with the 1230123, I would have to say that the secondary progression is way too low to accommodate the 6 unit loss that started it. You would almost need something like 1230468 from the numbers I've seen on several shoes. The nice thing is that the secondary progression is far more rare than in the other SB40 systems. gb

I'm curious as to whether the concept of a SAP count in a random shoe is as meaningful? It seems to predict the opposite of what the secondary bet progression is designed to take advantage of the the +5 systems. In other words, the secondary bet is for the previous event to be different than the current event, whereas SAP appears to suggest that perhaps the previous event will repeat. Any thoughts? Greg

I think the unique challenge with BaOTB4L in this secondary progression model is that if you have a situation where the ST and ZZ runs both require a secondary progression, by the time either get the first 1 unit bet on the secondary, you are down 6. If both are at the point of the first 1 unit bet of a secondary progression, you are down 12 units total. This is hard to make up in the secondary betting process, but exacerbated in BaOTB4L due to having two separate secondary progressions running at one time.