Fedda
-
Posts
406 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
10
Posts posted by Fedda
-
-
So basically, we use our SAP-card to choose either SAP or RSAP and stick with it through the shoe until we hit our stop-loss or hopefully stop-win.
Or are there situations we would change back and forth within the shoe?
I've seen strong NOR/SAP-shoes that in the end sums up to a normal frequencies of occurrence, but the question is, how common are these? And what can we do? Take the loss and move on?
/Fredrik
-
Oz, I understand what you are saying and you're right, It's individual.
I think the most successfull players here have made a tweak here and there from the ground concept to fit it a personal system.
I was just reacting to some of the junior-members writing about the mathematical FACT that no progression could turn a losing shoe flatbetting into a winner. Maybe I was in a bad mood but some should not be so sure about things they know nothing about.
-
Your lack of basic statistic and mathematical knowledge is unbelievable.
When the discussion is about "progressions" few simple elements of math and statistic are necessary:it's not your case.
Your example about LWLWLLW is a joke,it's ridiculous.What about LLLLLWLLLWLLLLL?Compare flat bet and progression!
May I ask your education?
In addition I think that Ellis,that is a big expert agrees with me.
That's why his very clever approach is "play conservative,max 1-4 units bet",because he knows perfectly that progressions are too risky even with a strong bet selection.
I'm afraid I'm wasting time
These concepts are incomprehensible for you
Why is my example of LWLWLLW a joke? This is a 50/50 game, nothing strange about that.
I can see now by your example why you choose to flatbet, I would have been far away from that table after first 3 losses and so should you.
Thanks for keeping the casinos alive!
-
What junior member DONALD wrote is correct.
If you don't win flat bet,you won't win with a progression.
It's not his or my opinion,it's a mathematical fact.
At 18 years old,students learn it….
Progression speed up wins(illusion) but also losses,due to max bet allowed at the tables.
It's a mathematical fact that it's all about the frequencies of the wins and losses! Let's say you're winning and losing every other bet like this..
(LWLWLLW) This is -1 flatbetting. So you are saying that no progression would make this event a winner?!
Please remove this thread Ellis to get rid of this nonsense!
-
Ok, is there any specific condition we don't want to see when playing U3hi?
How does it against a shoe where just betting repeats would have been successful?
Like B3245141 and so on..
-
Hi eridu! Have you signed up to MDB+? If NOR doesn't work, MDB+ usually will.
It's 100% mechanical and easy to learn.
-
Wow! Great post! The one thing that scares me with SAP though are those changing biases within the shoe, but maybe you have something in your pocket to work that around? Thanks!
-
Hi FF, looks like MDB+ wins 5 of 5 signals, all on the first bet. These type of shoes are so much fun -- the other players at the table notice that you only bet occasionally, but then you win every single bet at large units. Happens frequently with MDB+.
Yeah I see that now. I've tried to avoid MDB+ because this is regular cards. When least expected the two's are coming at full speed!
Hmm, maybe I should reconsider..
Thanks.
-
Hello! I had this shoe yesterday and wonder how you guys would've played it?
I think S40m2 would do okay but it's not obvious because of the 3 in the beginning.
My online live-dealer casino keeps spitting out these kind of shoes. What's the best way to handle this circumstance?
I had a hard time deciding what to play even when it's finished.
B1413112142
B121111612112
B1151422122
Thanks.
/ff
-
Do you mean the psychological aspect of the game? Having the right mindset etc..
Is it the greed that's staring at us?
-
WOW!! It would be intresting to know what kind of bias the shoe produced in the game after.
Do I have to ask if it was regular cards?
-
Great! What kind of shuffle was it? Preshuffled or regular? Flat bet you only gain 1 Unit if the first bet wins, the rest of the bets in the originally prog you only break even or lose 1 Unit. Flat bet is not recommended i think.
-
Interesting!
So you mean that the culprit is a very tight disparity playing NB this way?
And if it is a tight disparity between PvB it often means that MBD+ fixes it?
-
Is anyone playing or played MDB+ live in a casino? I'm really curious how someone is going to sit at a bacc table, through a whole shoe, and only make around 5-10 bets. I don't think you could play heads up because they won't just deal all those free hands. And if the table is full they'll probably ask you to get up to make the seat available for another player. I guess if you find a table with only a few players you might be able to pull it off. How is this going to work in reality? I'd love to hear if anyone is actually playing it. I guess playing online it could work ok. Thoughts?
The only way I can come up with is the way Ellis explained it somewhere here. Bet the minimum wager to keep the shoe running and (often opposites if the cards are new preshuffled) then bet the amount you were supposed to according to MBD+.
-
I must disagree. Evidence we have shows MDB worked very well as reported by people at various casinos across the country, Vegas included. While it might not be 90% I would be interested to see the results by using differing shoe starts, and differing stop win rates. Purely mechanical is the ultimate goal, but there needs to be enhanced rules to ensure that such as quitting a shoe at x positive count after x negative count. If we get to -4 and then rebound to +3, that's a 7 unit gain. If we start to slide do we really need to go all the way to -5? That can still be built into rules. I shudder to think that one report of 21 shoes showing a -7 net is reason to abandon a system that earlier showed double digit PA. I think tweaking that system can be done to reduce risk and fix the system.
Mike, I totally agree! I have thought about to make a stop win after a 5 Unit gain. Let's say we hit -3, stop at +2 and so on. It's a very coservative way to play but we could go trough samples and see how it's doing? It's relative common to hit +2 or +3 after a minus run too see that it all goes bad again. In many shoes there are no strengh to hit a +7,+8-run before it turns bad again. A run of +5 are far more common.
/Fred
-
I haven't forgotten you Fred. Yes, I've thought about reversing the secondary prog for regular cards. Probably a good idea. With regular cards your hit rate on your primaryb prog is much better. The SAP count tends to be much more lopsided. (Greater disparity between the high and low counts).
Ideally we should go by SAP disparity. The greater the disparity the more it favors reversing the secondary prog. Putting precise numbers on it would be next to impossible to follow however. It is probably best to simply reverse the meaning of the 0 bet for regular cards.
Thanks! I never played SAP the original way but I read somewhere that it averaged +6 with regular cards. That is good enough for me.
Is it worth à try? Maybe find some kind of tweak to fit the MDB-plan?
-
Ellis, for those of us that still play regular card, what's your recommendation here within MBD area? I've thought about reverse the secondary prog but I don't know..?
-
Ok, did you use any money managment? Let's say if you hit -4 or -5, finish the shoe with any positive result.
-
No, I played it purely mechanically and switched to OTB4L at hand 25 at the 4 6 4 8 count.
I'm still not sure when to switch systems since it seems you did better by not switching when SAP was indicating to.
Good play Gman!
I like the way you're posting the shoes, clean and easy.
This is a tough one, must say it's tempting to go OTB4L at play 49 with two's coming fast, but then it's goodbye..
Glenn, I was thinking OTB4L too but I think Ellis said that we go with the highest count which in this case at hand 25 is 4+'s, 4 6 4 (8). That's still S40M1 if I have got it right.
In this particular shoe it works out but I know what you mean, the 2's and 3's have the highest number together.
Anyway, good job!
-
Now don't be getting me wrong about Norm. I know he concentrated to the utmost. BUT his whole decision making was when should I throw an extra 1 bet in there and when do I need an extra 2 bet and should I order Scotch or Bourbon? Which explains his ocassional loss. THAT gave him staying power. The guy could play for hours on end. THAT is how he got so close to a million dollars.
Compare that to the 4D player who first needs 17 years of training and then needs to bring a 20 foot scroll to use for a scorecard.
Talking about Norm, sometimes I go back and read his forum-posts, they are classics and full of knowledge. I miss him, R.I.P.
This +5 strategy could be a kind of dedication to Norm, he's sitting up there and thinking "now they're getting it!"
-
Thank you for taking the time to explain all that to me. I appreciate you. What do you mean by "Stay away form Vegas?".
In Vegas they use factory preshuffled cards which means that we can't use our biggest advantage in a casino (table selection).
-
Read the article about the party system. There it says, that after 10 hands/ spins and you win a 2 bet you quit. What does that mean
-
Yeah, maybe he did know what was going on and wanted you to tell him you were playing a system called NOR and is available at beatthecasino.com:biggrin:
-
Good work! Ha, but I'm wondering about the floor guy, is he stupid or blind to not recognize that choppy table?
Baccarat Exchange Betting
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
Interesting, but the most interesting thing must be how the cards are shuffled. Any info on that?
Thanks