William Looi
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Posts
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Posts posted by William Looi
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1 hour ago, miclus83 said:
B124111412223212612325431
from biginnig to end use OTB is ok you win
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On 12/11/2016 at 8:42 AM, miclus83 said:
Hi all, this is a shoe that I have just played on blackorchidcasino.com
P451211222131121311113123321
I just can't beat it. How would you play it?
Looking forward to everybody's comments.
from binging to end OTB is ok
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4 hours ago, CT70 said:
I'm sure all of us have at some point or other contemplated betting against a run when it has gone to a an 8 or 9iar.
So 2 days ago at I'm at my local casino and I'm watching this young man betting $10 to $15 hands on a very obvious strong side Banker. The shoe started out with B31314. The 4 continued on to an 8iar and the player started betting against the run. By the time the 8 went to 10, this guy was betting over $300 a hand to recover his $10. He pulled out all the cash he had from his pocket and kept betting. At about the time it got to an 11iar he angrily barged off the table, went to have 2 puffs of his cigarette and when he came back the run was still going. So what does the moron do? He continues to bet against it. The run ended at a 14iar. The guy lost his entire bank roll.
Moral of the story. Don't ever bet against a run. You never know how long it will go.
CT70
You should ask him to join this forum
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19 minutes ago, wolfat said:
If I can put my 2 cents in...
I think that Ellis has a great mind for baccarat, many good ideas came from him, surely he has had the merit to grow a great site for bac players that allow us to grow in knowledge, ideas, human contacts...
What I don't like is selling something claimed everytime like the "final solution" and then showing the same flaw that every system has, his nemesis. I appreciate more an approach like: this system is good but loses to... are you able to manage this situation? You couls do this... or this... what kind of events you usually find in your casino? etc
IMO this is a honest approach to people, instead of a permanent work in progress method. I know people paying 1000 bucks for the "Final Word" manual but still not released yet! Not good!
Before LCNB was the most powerful weapon, today MvD, tomorrow?
IMO better fix some things before thinking to new ones!
....anyway thanks to him and the forum allowing us to meet so many interesting people with the same passion.
A
Very good explanation, and revelation .
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Money management is very important, now I flat bet first until I am 2 unit plus then go to 1,2, loop. and target another 3 unites then the total is 5 unites. the main idea is I do not want to risk 3 unites (my own money)with negative progression ,and only utilize the casino money to play 1,2 loop. Bank-row for that session is only 3 unites. No bulldozer method meaning play every hand, chose shoe that is familiar with , not every shoe , it is ok to reject that shoe that look not familiar with, I am here to win money ( my target is money go home with me) not to show off I can bet every shoe ,be humble . shoe selection is important. chose easy target, don't play every shoe that come to you,
I watch a documentary movie , tiger do not attack every deer , it survey and attack at the right timing, be wise learn from the nature, wisdom is calling us to learn from the nature, look and look and you will see,
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6 hours ago, ozscouser1 said:
Remember the line by Jack Nicholsen in the movie "A Few Good Men"..."You can't handle the truth"?
Change the Title to "Two Good Men" and the line to "Ellis...You can't handle the truth" and you are on the money.
Way2Fast has been hit with the "ban stick" and has joined me in CFC purgatory for simply telling the truth.
Without meaning to give myself too much of a wrap, I'm betting (no pun intended) that Way2Fast and myself would be among the better Baccarat Players who frequent Casino Forum Club but both of us are banned for effectively trying to steer that forum in the right direction (Way2Fast in particular)...Me...I just hate to see people get ripped off and said so...Bad Oz
It's their loss not ours...If they want to turf out all our accumulated knowledge because their (Ellis and Dean's) precious feelings got hurt...then they both need to "Harden the F**k up."
There's at least one other BTC player who frequents CFC who I figure is on the short list to join us for telling a few home truths, and I figure that pretty soon, it's gonna get crowded down here in CFC Purgatory.
Do I sound like I'm a little pissed of?...That's coz I am. Not for me though but for Way2Fast who goes out of his way to try and help people to improve their play and doesn't deserve to be treated like this.
Me...I'm just a prick, but I'm good at it, so I'm not gonna change?
I'll just add this ..."If any of you think that you can just fork out $1250 for a mechanical system that can be learned in half an hour...don't come crying to me, because you were warned"
Read my lips..."There is no easy way to Beat The Casino...Hard work and practice and more practice is the only way"...and it can be done...I promise.
So saying...this is probably my last ever post on BTC because frankly I've seen more life in a morgue than these Forums lately and I've got heaps more interesting things to do...grass to watch grow...paint to watch dry...etc
But never fear...you have good people here like Way2Fast...Wolfat...CT70...Kazatchi...McVince...Brad and the "best of the best" Papa Joe to steer the ship.
Me...I told you that I was a prick...and yes...I have been drinking.(I'm good at that too)
Good luck to all of you
Oz
I like your words
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17 hours ago, machine said:
Hi william Looi
I am machine. Nice to meet you.
Your played shoe brought my attention because I am currently studying NOR F system.
Just quick question about the shoe you played that I see you use FM2 (mode2 which means you go OTR after 2 losses iar per NOR manual) 1-2 positive progression and
1-2-3 negative progression as well. I see little unclear at where the score of 9 and 16, at 9 you stayed OTR after 3 losses iar but you switched side at score of 16 which was supposed to stay OTR, wasn't it? I analyzed your play just for learning purposes, nothing against you. I think this is a kind of learning process.
Appreciate your feedback.
Kindly Regards,
Machine
I no longer play this way because I win a lot and I experience the casino change their method and I fall into trap few time and lost few time , now I change another way to hit them,
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On 25/03/2016 at 11:58 PM, Wendel said:
Please explain how you calculate your 80% won rate.
thanks
I play 10 shoe , win 8 shoe and lost 2 shoe
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3 hours ago, Pando said:
Here is a nice shoe I played yesterday
B42111161311115111161151123161131
My stats were Bets 58, won 38, lost 20, (65.5% win rate) nett outcome +36 units
As this was such a great S40M1 shoe, I played the IAR an ZZ runs until they finished, perhaps I could have capped them at 5 or 6.
That meant I lost a unit on the final bet when the runs finished, you would need to be good to pick the end of the runs accurately
I figured there was a great chance one run would go into double figures, but that didn't happen
The strong side in the shoe was all Banker for the first 22 hands, then a couple of switches to Player, back to Banker, then Player until the end
The shoes had only 2 x 2's, and 2 x 3's (2 of which were very near the end)
Interestingly all of the shoes on the day were like this
regards Pando
TB4L shoe
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All these top players are coming together, wow. the casino will had a bad days. and night mere .
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19 hours ago, ozscouser1 said:
Sorry William, this will have to wait a couple of days...I have a daughter in the country...broken hand...broken milking machine...pissed off cows (soon to be even more pissed off after I've milked them with my carpel tunnel hands with no feeling)...You just know who is gonna be buying a new milking machine today...don't you...LOL
In the meantime at first glance...Look at Repeats...SS sticking with SS or moving to S40...multiples on the P side with MC confirming also S40 or just sticking with SS...easy shoe
Back in a few days...gotta go now... some serious driving to do...and milking to be done. A father's life...LOL
ok
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1 hour ago, ozscouser1 said:
These are both interesting shoes and I'll try and do a play by play later tonight. I think you could learn heaps from these 2 shoes. It would help if you were able to do a numbered scoresheet so that you would have an easy referral.
I put this shoes in Excel spread sheet for your convenience to explain .
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25 minutes ago, ozscouser1 said:
I use a similar trigger for S40 except at the beginning of the shoe...for me...the 1 2 1 1 2 is the perfect start...not so the 1 1 1 1 2 because I haven't seen a previous 2iar (remember...If I haven't already seen it then I'm not betting on the unknown)...I would wait to see if the 2 stayed 2 and then start betting after the next opp...also with the 2 1 1 1 2 ...I will wait for the last 2 to stay 2 and proceed as above. Why is that, I hear you asking when there has been a previous 2iar?...we don't count the first event in Baccarat (for a whole heap of reasons that I can't be arsed going into at the moment) The first event can be counted as a multiple only if it's a 2+...but for single and 2's or MC or even LC events, it doesn't come under consideration. Further into the shoe is fine ...I'm betting that's what Way2Fast was talking about. Also...If you have a sequence of 1's and 2's interrupted by a small run of 3 4 or 5...the odds are strong that the S40 run will continue (especially if the prior event to the run was a 1 )... it get a little dicey if the prior event is a 2 and it's best to either wait an extra hand before hopping back onto the S40 bandwagon...or have a close look at recent history (number of 2's) and it could be worth a repeat bet so you have 2 3 2 ...remembering then, that this has switched you straight onto the perfect OTB4L start.
Can you give your idea about this shoe?
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Welcome to the journey of learning, testing , trying and error. There are only two destination success and give up.
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17 hours ago, avion said:
I can easily ask for one thing......for each active member.....to be able to meet at a time and place in person for at least 3-4 days. It blows my mind just to even think about it.
great
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15 hours ago, mjmtong said:
What a game! What a great bunch of people contributing here! It IS inspiring to be able to learn from the best!
In the end it up to the individual to DO the necessary work and the "hard yards".
A wonderful bit of advise about learning ANYTHING that I heard years ago is: "Don't wish it was easier, wish you were better".
Learn correct Play and correct Money Management and then, as has been said by so many "Greats" (in whatever field of endevour) KEEP working at it!
"The key is not the will to win… everybody can clain to have that. It is the will to prepare to win that is important.” - Bobby Knight (Legendary Basketball Coach)
Yes , I like the words, 'the will to prepare to win '. it is words of wisdom
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8 hours ago, ozscouser1 said:
Just thought I'd clarify my thoughts on FLATBETTING v LOOP v NEGATIVE PROGRESSIONS
Note:These are just my thoughts and are always up for debate.
It might surprise you to know that for me, the 1 2 LOOP is not the 'be all and end all". The reason being that my PA (Player Advantage) varies only 0.1% between Flatbetting and the LOOP. How can that be when on average I win just under 6 extra units/shoe with the Loop? Simple answer is that I'm risking more units to win. The Loop is ideal for occasional players who need to take advantage of their infrequent visits to the casino to the fullest, but for regular players on top of their game...flatbetting will produce the same results with less angst if you happen to be betting serious units. Norm was different...He had a gift...seemed to know when and where to place his 2 unit bets on a more regular basis, but for this mere mortal, I can't achieve his high hit rate.
You guys pretty much know how I feel about "negative progressions" already, but I'll try and explain my reasoning.
One major issue I have with negative progressions is that I seriously doubt whether there are more than a handful of people (not including the super wealthy)prepared to play NP's with large units.(I'm yet to meet one) It's ok when you are fart arsing around with $100 or less size units, but ask yourself if your balls are ever likely to drop to the point that, with for instance, $5K units, you would be prepared to risk a $15K third bet when (in the case of a basic 1 2 3 progression) you are already down $15K.
As for so called "safer" progressions with higher startups... 2 3 4 and the much vaunted 3 4 5 progression and higher...are you ever, ever going to start a progression with $15K...2nd bet $20K and third bet of $25K for a potential loss of $60K?...It's not going to ever happen
To call it a 3 4 5 progression is a misnomer anyway. It is in effect a 1 unit... 1 and a third units and 1and 2 thirds units progression with a potential loss of 4 units. If you win the 3rd bet of your progression...you are still down two thirds of a unit.(and if your third winning bet happens to be a B6...you do the math) What sort of a negative progression is that where your third bet is still a losing bet? It only works well if you are smashing out the first bet wins. In which case, you might as well be just flatbetting....almost the same result with less risk. Think about it...with the 3 4 5 progression...the sum total of your so called winning units in reality has to be divided by 3. "HEY...look at me...I just won 30 units" No you didn't...you just won 10 units...Big deal...I average more than that for every shoe simply flatbetting. BTW: The higher your start up in your progression ie: 4 5 6...5 6 7...etc...the closer you are to simply flatbetting..."HELLO!"...this is why they are "safe" progressions. In Oz we would call them "Bullshit Progression...the negative progression you make when you're not actually making a negative progression"
U1 D2 is a relatively safe progression (as NP's go), but in my experience, my PA is less than simply Flatbetting. Also...any progression with an M2 (mandatory 2) has to have total units divided by 2 to get a true indication of actual units won per risk taken. There is very little actual PA (Player Advantage) difference between U1D2 and U1D2M2. It may give you a higher all up total of units won at the end of the shoe, but again...you have risked more units. With Mandatory 2 in play you are virtually playing a 1 1.5 2.0 2.5 etc with a Down 1...you increase your bet by half a unit when you lose and lower your bet by 1 unit when you win. Do you get it? Also...in theory, if you are playing M2, you should also be doubling your S/L. Again...this may be worthwhile for occasional players who need to maximise units won per shoe but for regular players, there is not much point. You achieve the same result by simply doubling your starting unit size.
With both Flatbetting and the 1 2 loop and the 2 3 Loop (Oops...I forgot to mention that one...LOL), my PA is such that I know that for every 4 units I bet, I will be making 1 unit clear profit. That beats the hell out of Bank Interest.
BTW: The 2 3 Loop is simply my own variation on the 1 2 Loop which may be more comfortable for those just starting to get the idea of the Loop or those betting larger units. In reality, it is a 1 1.5 unit Loop with the advantage of being able to make my probe bets with half a unit. But you know something?...In truth...it doesn't matter much whether I Flatbet...1 2 Loop or 2 3 Loop... there is sweet stuff all difference in my PA. It's all about bet placement. I use all three options depending on whether or not I'm menstruating...(I am kidding...right?)
I haven't mentioned the scariest NP of them all...U1D1. For me, this progression is all risk for not enough reward. Sure it works (till your progression reaches the stratosphere) but if you happen to strike a much needed win with a B6 on a "no commission" table, you are not going to be a "happy chappie". This is the only progression that actually rewards bad play. If your bet selection is good, then your PA shouldn't be all that different to the Loop or simply flatbetting but you are running a hell of a lot more risk for the same result. If your bet selection is piss weak, then U1D1 can come into it's own...(It actually rewards failure) unless of course it crashes and burns. If you want to use U1D1 on a regular basis...check with your heart specialist first.
As for U1D1M2...after you see your heart specialist..."get yourself a brain surgeon son...better get a real good one" (who specialises in transplants)
In short...Read my lips."There is no substitute for learning to read the shoe and NP's will only give you false confidence"
Why does the Loop perform so well with less risk than NPs?Buggered if I know, but I suspect that it is because it is in a way a limited positive progression. You never make a 2 unit bet that takes you below 0, so in effect, you are using the casino's money, whereas, with a NP, you are by it's very nature coming from behind and using risking your own money to increase your unit size.
Remember...there is enough info on BTC to turn anyone into a winner if you just put in the hard yards...S40...OTB4L...TBL...SS...Repeats...RD1...MC and LC events...they all work to varying degrees...Just listen to the words of one of the best Baccarat players in the history of the game (Norm Allen) RIP...Learn to "Follow the shoe"
OK...that's just my opinion for what it's worth and you are entitled to disagree, but for those strong advocates of aggressive Negative Progressions...I'll be sure to wave to you on your skateboard as I drive past in my Merc...just saying...LOL
Bye for now...I reckon I'll be copping a few "negatives" of my own...(comments I mean...not progressions) LOL
OH yeah...I almost forgot...and this is for regular players only. Once you are Flatbetting or "Looping" and doing well...you can throw out your STOP/LOSS. There is no need for a SL. It matters sweet stuff all what your situation is at the end of a shoe...You need to look at the big picture and where you are after several day's (or longer) play.
Also...and read my lips "The more shoes you play, the more likely you are to win". On average, by simply Flatbetting or Looping (I like that term...might patent it...LOL), you will hit one in every 5 or 6 shoes that almost plays itself for a win between 15 and 20 units, and one in every 10 or so shoes that does play itself (sorta) for a win of 25+ units. The trick is to not get discouraged with shoes where you aren't winning big units or just breaking even... "Shit Happens" but relax in the knowledge that the the really good shoes will crop up and you need to be playing to take advantage of them "Nobody ever won big by sitting at the bar"..hmm...I like that...might patent that saying too...LOL
Another thing...The longer the shoe, the more likely you are to win. That might not make sense, but it's a fact. Sooner or later in a long shoe, a more than half decent Bias crops up. The trick is to hang in there and be patient. I couldn't count the number of shoes that I've struggled most of the way only to hit the Bias in the last 10 to 15 hands and win big time. That's the problem with most online pay. Most Online Casinos keep their shoes short by various means (burning a card every deal is a goodie) I'm not into conspiracy theories, but I figure that they know that the longer the shoe continues, the more likely you are to be able to recover from a bad start or they can stop you in a strong winning streak.
OK...Let the games begin...LOL
I agree with you
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7 hours ago, ozscouser1 said:
I assume that Statsforprofit is for the elite of BTC...Obviously, I am not rated amongst the favoured few LOL...You know what I always say..."You can't help bad luck".
I don't like this "elite" BS (no offence to you Pando)...But I'm thinking that it is time for me to disappear once again..."Who was that masked man?"...LOL
Take care
Oz
Do not go away stay on , say what you like to say , it is ok
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I have been waiting for word of wisdom from you like this one. What you say make sense to me I will try my hand on this and see. I really appreciate your contribution in this forum. Hope you contribute much more in this forum.
Thanks
William
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On 28/07/2016 at 6:22 PM, ozscouser1 said:
Unfortunate for who?...not for me because it simply doesn't matter to me any more. It's not the trifling amount...it's the principle, which is why I just don't bother. I'm settled in my method of play and I concentrate purely on refining and improving. I was fortunate to be mentored by three of the best Baccarat brains on the planet...Ellis ...who taught me the basics (before he lost the plot)...Norm RIP ...who took me to another level...and there is a third who is at least on par (who has to remain nameless because he prefers anonymity) and he took me into another realm where STOP/LOSS doesn't exist and position in the shoe doesn't matter a shit because it's all about where you are long term and if you aren't playing a negative progression and simply using the 1 - 2 loop or Flatbetting ...neither should it. If you can get that through your head and fully comprehend what I'm saying...it removes the fear. We have all been taught that a S/L is necessary and as we get close to our limit, the "fear" kicks in and fear causes mistakes. Remove the necessity of a S/L and you remove the fear.
Think about it.
Note: The thoughts expressed above apply only to regular players and not casual (entertainment)players
Just a few thoughts before I piss off outta here...The wisest of many wise words by Norm "When in doubt...wait it out" ...If you don't know for sure what bet you should be making?...then "DON'T MAKE THE DAMN BET"
It takes skill to recognise when not to make the bet and each losing bet that you avoid is as good as a winning bet.
Recognise that the more shoes you play...the more likely you are to win (if your method of play is half decent)
Don't spend your life waiting for the perfect OTB4L or S40 shoe...they rarely come. Look for each bias within the shoe and get on and when it peters out...look for the new bias or a stronger bias within the bias, or to see if it's just a blip and continues on for a while (you can do this shit if you aren't dependent on a negative progression.)
I utilise OTB4L...S40...Repeats...RD1 and F2SS and frequently, I use all 5 within the same shoe. I rarely bet TB4L because the loss of 3 units with a 2iar to me is a bad bet. Also...Look for MC and LC events.
Look for your own triggers and practice them and improve them and refine them again and again...and you can beat this game. The triggers have to become second nature.
Avoid negative progressions like the plague.
I know that Way2Fast did well with MDB+ but I suspect that he is the exception. I use MDB+ only to tell me when not to bet.
You would not believe the number of shoes...the records I have...the research I did...the constant practice...I would have earned 3 Medical degrees if I'd put the same time into university...LOL... I'm not trying to discourage anyone...rather the opposite...you just gotta be prepared to do the hard yards... BTW: Don't let anyone tell you that you can't get high average wins with flatbetting or the 1-2 Loop. I'm not going to say...but you would crap your pants if you knew how many units you can average with minimal risk. I was lucky though...I was taken under the wing of the third member of the Baccarat Trinity who is still prodding me and forcing me to improve.
Some things in life don't change...I still find Baccarat "Batshit boring"...but "HEY...It's a living"
Take care y/all
I'm outta here
Oz
You don't go away want to learn from you. We are here to beat the casino. Stay on please.
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hi Pando do you come to Genthing Highland in Malaysia?
Early morning most of the tables are otb4l in Genthing
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Hi Michael IR I have contacted Pompano Mike and he will assiste you to be a premium member .
When you become a paid members I can share to you my experience. Last time I was a student, now I am a player and win consistently. To be a winner is possible all you need is practice, patience and positive thinking.
In this forum got members already make millions
So join the forum soon and do not wait
How do you play this shoe?
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
anymore shoe?