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System 40 Manual and F2 Manual

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System 40

A Winning Approach to Baccarat

by E. Clifton Davis and BeatTheCasino.com


Page 1

System 40 simply bets opposites until it runs into problems and then strategically goes to repeats to get out of trouble. System 40 is primarily a chop system because it primarily bets opposites. The first thing you need to know is what an opposite is and what’s a repeat. But even before that we need to know how WE construct our score card and the basic Baccarat rules.

Player's third-card-rule

• If either the player or the bank have a total of 8 or 9 on the first two cards no further cards are drawn. The resulting hand is called a natural and the hand is over.

• If the player's total is less than or equal to 5 the player's hand draws a third card.

• If the player does not draw a third card, then the bank's hand stands on 6 or more and takes a third card on a total of 5 or less. If the player does take a third card then the Bank's third-card-rule below will determine if the bank takes a third card.

Bank's third-card-rule

• If the bank's total is 2 or less then bank draws a card, regardless of what the players third card is.

• If the banks total is 3 then the bank draws a third card unless the players third card was an 8.

• If the banks total is 4 then the bank draws a third card unless the players third card was a 0, 1, 8, or 9. • If the banks total is 5 then the bank draws a third card if the players third card was 4, 5, 6, or 7.

• If the banks total is 6 then the bank draws a third card if the players third card was a 6 or 7.

• If the banks total is 7 then the bank stands

Our score card is arranged in 4 columns of 20 plays each. Each column has at least 4 lanes with the headings: Play#, Player, Bank, Score which we shorten to # P B S. But leave an extra lane or 2 between B and S so that you have lanes available for our various counts. As the game is played we enter our bets in the appropriate column and CIRCLE the side that won. So when we talk about Circles that is what we are talking about. Always put P first because P gets dealt first. We have score card blanks you can download - just ask.


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An Opposite is when the opposite side wins (the side opposite the last circle). A Repeat is when the same side wins again. It “repeated”. The first play of the game is neither because we don’t know what it followed. When we bet Opposites (System 40) we simply bet on the opposite side of the prior circle. When we bet repeats we bet on the SAME side as the prior circle. You need to know this thoroughly before you can learn to play Baccarat. OK, here’s a drill to get this down pat and automatic.

Take any score card with the circles already filled in and perform a C/S count. A C/S or CS count is the exact same thing as an O/R or OR count. CS stands for Chop vs. Streak and OR stands for Opposites vs., Repeats. For the purpose of this manual I’ll always use OR count to avoid confusion.

OK, starting at play 2 count an Opposite as +1 and a Repeat as 1 and enter your running OR count in a spare lane on your card.

Keep doing this until you can do it in your head and only enter the running count at the bottom of each col. Practice until you can count a shoe in a matter of seconds and get the column counts right every time. BTW, I still enter the column OR counts on every shoe I play in the casino.

OK, why are we doing this? Because the first thing you need to know about a shoe to play 4S is: is the shoe streaky (-count) or choppy (+count). BTW OR counts that go beyond + or - 8 we call “super strea (-) or super chop (+). But that is what you need to know to make your first system decision. I want you so proficient that you can look at a Tote Board across the isle and W/O breaking stride, tell me if that table is streaky or choppy or neutral. Neutral is when the OR count hovers 0 and doesn’t go far in either direction. No long

straight or ZZ (Zigzag) runs BPBPBPB etc.

OK, two things to recognize here:

1.) On average, shoes have just as many opposites as repeats. So we call OR a balanced count.

Note: Casinos prefer Neutral shoes because they make the most money for the casino. The streak players lose because the shoe is NOT streaky. The chop players lose because the shoe is not choppy. That is why we like to “net bet” in such shoes. Net betting does best in “low OR Disparity” (Neutral) shoes. So we not only beat those shoes, we excel in them and we are usually the ONLY winners at the table in neutral shoes. And if we did it right we usually win a lot! The casino is left scratching their head.


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2.) Get the OR count down pat and then we will go from there. Oh, let’s go over how we post a shoe with our shortcut method: We do this in columns of 20 plays. A - PPP BB P BBBB P BBB PPP B PP becomes simply P 321413312 Get it? Start each column with a P or B, whichever headed that column.

Shoes posted this way are very easy to transcribe. Once you are proficient at this you can transcribe any shoe correctly in seconds only looking at the shoe 6 or 7 times. It’s like telephone numbers. They stay in your head for a few seconds.

System 40 is a near perfect baccarat system because it adjusts to conform to nearly any shoe type. It always starts by betting opposites but recognize that we can't just sit there betting Opposites all the time. Half of all shoes are Repeat favorable. So if we only bet Opposites we would only win the half of the shoes that favor Opposites. So we MUST go on the run at some point or stop betting against a run at some point.

So when do we go on the run and when to we get off the run and go back to opposites. This is where skill and Baccarat knowledge come into play. This is what separates the winners from the losers. We MUST lose to something. But we have a choice. We lose to whatever event we go on the run after. Our choices are 2s, 3s or 4s. We go on the run (OTR) after whichever of those 3 events is occurring the least relative to its normal frequency of occurrence.

• 2s normally occur once every 8 plays

• 3s normally occur once every 16 plays

• 4s normally occur once every 32 plays

2s, 3s and 4s are all called events along with 1's, 5's and so forth but here, we are only interested in 2s, 3s and 4s. Recognize that whichever of those 3 events we go OTR after we call that event our culprit because that is the event we lose to.

Also recognize that for all events occurring below normal we must have equal events occurring above normal. Let’s take 3s for instance. 3s are least LC or Least Common so we make 3's culprit and go OTR after every 3 in a row. Well if the 3 stays at 3 we lose our OTR bet but if the 3 goes to 4 we win our OTR bet. Once we make the LC event culprit the game is no longer 50/50. It swings to our advantage. If LC stays LC we win the game plain and simple. Fortunately LC USUALLY stays LC but if it changes, we change right with it. The important thing here is to NEVER be found betting against the MOST common event. That's how you lose. We want to go OTR on the LC event so that we lose to the LC event in order to win on the MC (most common) events. That is how you win the shoe.

Example: We determine 3s are LC (The SAP chart, later on in the manual, with explain how to determine the LC) so we bet OTR On every 3 betting the 3s will go to 4 because if 3s are LC most 3s are


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going to 4. Now we have a mathematical advantage in a game that is supposed to have no mathematical advantage. Get it? OK now we can talk about how we know which event is LC in the game we are playing right now. THAT is how you beat Baccarat.

When you are at home practicing, the shoe at hand is the only thing you have to go by But in a casino you have prior shoes, tote boards and or other players score cards. Yes, we want to know what the shoe at hand is doing. But more importantly we want to know what the table is doing. We don't want to play "in the blind". That is what the other players do - and they lose.

We want to know the history of the current shoe but we would also like to know the history of the prior shoe. When I say history, I'm only talking about was it Streaky Choppy or Neutral.

I always note the color of the shoe I'm playing on the top of my card: red or Blue. Usually they are the same, but not always. Some casinos prep and shuffle the red shoe differently from the blue shoe. They figure that different shoe types will catch the players unaware. This usually works, for the other players but, hopefully, not us. Know what both shoe colors are doing from an OR standpoint. If you don't know

before you start, make sure you know after you start.

I'm hoping that by now everyone can accurately perform an OR count. That comes first. The OR count tells us the basic system type to start with. A + OR count means we start with a chop system. In 4S System 40 is our ONLY chop system so a + OR count means we start with some chop version of System 40 either 43 or 44 because 42 is the streak version of 40. Details on how to proceed with these approaches later in the manual.

A - OR count means we start with one of our two streak systems. This will usually be RD1, 2 or 3 but in low twos or low 3s we can start with F2 or F3 respectively. In a Neutral OR count (hovering 0) we can start with System 40N or OTB4L. We will certainly be going over the rules of each version of each system and what tells us which version to use in far greater detail as we progress.

Right now, in preparing the new guys for System 40, I'd like you to do one more drill. I'd like you to play several shoes AT HOME just betting opposites. This means that starting at Play #2 with a 1 bet just keep betting opposites throughout the entire shoe.

Use an U1D2 M2 progression. That is up 1 when you lose, down 2 when you win except don't go below 1 and M2 means always bet 2 after 1 regardless whether the 1 wins or loses. The purpose of this drill is twofold. First it gives you practice at the normal betting routine of System 40. All I need teach you is one more step, when to go OTR (on the run). We'll do that AFTER this drill

You will win slightly more than half your shoes which should demonstrate why we MUST go OTR at some point to have a winning system. Playing Opposites only you will find that you win all of your +


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count shoes. Which reminds me, keep an OR count in these practice shoes. You will also likely win your Neutral shoes. But you will lose the shoes with a significant - count which is about 45% of all shoes. This should demonstrate to you why we must go OTR at some point or at least stop betting against straight runs at some point. It will also demonstrate to you that System 40 basically bets AGAINST straight runs. Once you can do that routine smoothly, you are ready for System 40. Have a go at it and ask any questions you come up with in the questions thread.

OH, I'm also hoping to demonstrate that there are some shoes that are SO choppy that your best bet is to never go OTR but simply stick to betting opposites until you are faced with a 4 or 5 in a row. But these runs can be so rare in a super chop shoe that your best option is to simply stop betting until the run ends and then continue with opposites. We have been seeing a lot of such shoes at Bet Phoenix lately which has caused much excitement because they are so easy for an experienced BTC student to beat! Such shoes can also be common with new cards in the morning at many casinos. And also with casinos using factory pre-shuffled cards. I'll be teaching you these lucrative tricks of the trade as we move along.

System 40 shoe start tips:

Where, when and how we start depends on how much we know about the table/shoe we are sitting down to. The more professional we are the more we know about the shoe and the better we will do overall. There are two things we want to know about a shoe preferably before we sit down or as soon as possible after we sit down:

1. Is the shoe basically Choppy (+OR count), Streaky (- OR count) and roughly to what degree? Or is the OR hovering 0 (Neutral).

2. What is the LC (Least Common) event between 2s, 3s and 4s? Explained next.

SAP (Self Adjusting Progression) charting for System 40

OK, those 1234s you see entered every 4 plays are for making you SAP entries. The 1s represent 1 in a rows. The 2 is for 2 in a rows, etc. Recognize that you can't merely count the quantity of each event thus far because 1s would always be highest MC - most common and 4s would always be LC - Least Common . That would do us no good.

Here is what you do ( see diagram on the next page)

Under the 1's you enter the actual number of confirmed 1's thus far. By "confirmed" I mean the next play has confirmed that a 1 in a row is a 1 in a row and did not go to 2.

Every opposite confirms the length of the last event. So you can fill in your SAP chart retroactively after every opposite. That way only one entry will change each time you fill in your chart line numbers.

• Under the 1 headings enter the actual number of 1's thus far.

• Under the 2 headings enter 2 Xs the actual number of 2s thus far.

• Under the 3 headings enter 4 Xs the actual number of 3s thus far.


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• Under the 4 headings enter 8 Xs the actual number of 4s thus far. Now your entries on any line are directly comparable. Whichever heading has the lowest entry, THAT event is LC, Culprit.

Now for System 40 we are only interested in the lowest entry among 2s, 3s and 4s because we never use 1s as LC. But fill the 1 headings in anyway because they will provide a purpose in the other systems. Recognize that the fewer times LC changes within a shoe, the better we do. Also recognize that the greater the disparity (difference) between our LC entry vs the other event entries the higher we will score. So we like LC to be LC by a lot. When two entries are tied for LC make the longer one LC - Culprit.

When all entries are tied we have no advantage but we usually win anyway or close to it because there is no MC to hurt us. - No disadvantage OK, if 2s are LC we are betting OTR under every 2. We are betting 2s will go to 3 because most have. If 3s are LC we are betting OTR directly under all 3s the same for 4s.

OK, if you can do this right, you are already a winning player. That puts you in the prestigious 1% group! Will you win every shoe? Sometimes, but when you lose, you won't lose a lot. You can judge the quality of a table or shoe by the disparity and consistency of LC. If you are seeing little or no disparity or consistency its a good idea to change tables or quit for the session.

Please recognize that the whole LC concept was developed right here at BTC by Andrea and me. It is taught nowhere else. Yet it separates the winners from the losers. Once you deploy LC, you are no longer guessing. You are playing with a purpose and an edge. The greater the LC disparity, the greater your edge. When the other event(s) start catching up to your LC start looking for a place to quit after a winning bet. You are losing your edge.

After you play this a few times it will all start making sense to you. The whole idea is you MUST lose to something so choose to lose to whatever is happening the least. OK, you sharpies, please check me out for any mistakes. I'll get a shoe posted deploying LC with System 40 as soon as possible.

If we must sit down before we know it is best not to bet at all or, if

necessary, flat bet at 1 until we know. If we have a definite Chop, Streak or Neutral signal, we can start right away and worry about LC later but we want to determine LC as soon as possible. Again, its best to know before you sit down.


Page 7

Recognize that there are 3 bias sources: Casino biases, table, biases and shoe biases. Casino biases are when the whole casino is favoring Chop or favoring Streak or favoring Neutral. These can occur anytime but are most common with new cards in the morning right after the card prep. It's good to KNOW the casino you are playing. Recognize that most casinos don't start up all their tables at the same time. A table bias is when a table is consistently favoring either Streak, Chop or Neutral. Sometimes the blue shoe will be favoring one thing and the red shoe another. That is Good information.

War Story

When I played with some of you in Vegas, I canvassed the 16 tables at Gold Coast just before we all met there for the dinner reception. Table one had the strongest bias with extreme Chop. After dinner, I noted that table one STILL displayed an extreme chop bias. So I selected that table mid shoe. We KILLED that shoe losing only 3 hands. Our trip was off to a very good start. Always know what is going on. It pays to be observant.


We play 4.2 - 2s are culprit.


We play 4.3 if 3s are LC or 44 if 4s are LC. Neutral

We play 40N

Lets assume its choppy. If I don't already know what is LC, which is often the case, I start with 44 until I can make a determination. Recognize that I'm going to win all 1's, 2s and 3s. (87% of all events) Very often there are no 4s (one every 32 plays) in the first column. So I'm often way up while making my LC judgment with my SAP chart. WE will go over SAP charts shortly. What is the worst that could happen? I lose 10 units (1234) on an early 4 but I'm usually up that much or more anyway and you can make a pretty good LC judgment before that anyway (tricks of the trade).

But recognize that you are at your most vulnerable until you make a sound LC judgment.

I just played a very tough System 40 shoe. It ended with a -2 OR count and the LC changed 3 times during the shoe (very unfavorable). I played a 23456 progression U1D2 M3 B2 and scored +41 with no draw downs in spite of the 8 in a row. System 40 can overcome ALMOST all odds when played correctly.



Page 8

Once you know that you are at a favorable table you are best off to switch from a 12345 progression to a 23456 progression, because this DECREASES your risk while increasing your win. You would think this would increase your risk because it increases your average bet size. Right BUT it decreases the slope of your progression. Slope = risk. In the 12345 progression your 5th bet is 5 times your base bet. But in the 23456 progression your 5th bet is only 3 times your base bet. Now you would think you 'd have to win your 2 bet most of the time for the 23456 to work out. Ha, NO! I actually lost the 2 bet 3 more times than I won it. Yet my score went from +25 with the 12345 progression to +41 with the 23456 progression. Math is funny that way!

System 40 rules

1. Starting at play 2 (at the earliest) bet an U1D2 M2 ( up 1 when you lose - down 2 when you win - mandatory 2 bet after a 1 win or lose) progression on opposites until the LC appears.

2. When the LC appears, bet OTR (on the run) by betting right under the LC event 3. If you lose your initial OTR bet go right back to opposites.

4. If you win your OTR bet:

A. 42 - Stay OTR until you lose then go right back to opposites with a 1 bet B. 43 - Stay OTR for 2 winning bets *

C. 44 - Stay OTR for 1 winning bet (or one losing bet)

* If you note that you are usually losing your 2nd OTR bet, STOP attempting it and only go for 1 winning bet

Important: In an extreme chop situation where you are seeing very few straight runs it is best to NOT go OTR at all. Instead, after losing 3 Opposite bets (44) wait for the run to end before continuing with Opposite bets where you left off. This is usually your strongest System 40 situation.

Important: When you come off an ongoing run after 1 or 2 winning OTR bets and lose your first Opposite bet it is best to wait until the run ends before continuing. Another option if you are seeing long runs is to go back on the run and go off, on, off, on until the run ends. Remember if you are seeing lots of runs the shoe is streaky so you make 2s culprit and stay on all runs until you lose. At that point its best to go back to a 1 bet unless you are well ahead.

Again 42 = 2s LC, 2s culprit = Streaky = Stay on all runs until you lose. 43 = 3s LC, 3s culprit 44 = 4s LC, 4s culprit

Note: You MUST lose to something. So the object is to lose to the LEAST common event so that you lose the LEAST often.

Important: As soon as you can learn to always lose to LC and only LC you are already a winning player. Here’s why:


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The average player loses half the time and his biggest losses are about equivalent to his biggest wins. His biggest losses occur when he is unlucky enough to be betting against the MC (Most Common) event.

But, when YOU are always making the LC event culprit, you are therefore NEVER betting against the MC event so you. Never suffer these catastrophic losses. Therefore, on average, you win! It's simple 4th grade math. Remember when you studied Averaging for the first time? That is what we are taking advantage of - simple 4th grade math. Hmmm, and you thought I was a genius. OK, now, try a few shoes.

System 40N

Don't attempt this until you have regular System 40 down pat. First: When do we deploy this?

1. When the OR count can't seem to make up its mind between + and -. It keeps crossing 0.

2. When regular System 40 keeps winning close to half its bets.

Play regular system 40 in black or blue pen with either progression 12345 or 2345 Enter the SAME progression exactly opposite your 40 progression both U1D2 M2 or both U1D2 M3 B2 in red pen.

When 40 wins an OTR bet it alternates OFF the run, on the run, off, on until the run ends, then back to normal. The opposite progression does the opposite.

When either progression loses 3 bets in a row it stops betting until it has a paper win while the other progression continues "unopposed".

You have two opposite entries each play. DON"T bet both sides. Subtract the low entry from the high entry and only bet the difference on the table. Bet it on the side of the higher entry. When both entries are the same, you have no table bet that hand.

While you choose LC the same way as before, try this first with 2s LC until you get it down pat. I'm sure there will be a couple of bugs in this at first so let’s hear your comments and questions.

Advantage: Your actual table bets are MUCH lower but your wins can go higher. Commission is also lower.

Note: This is very similar to OR, net betting Opposites vs Repeats, except for you OTR bets. Give this a try AFTER you get Basic 40 down pat.

Beginners: Remember, you can always opt out of 40N to start by only choosing Choppy or Streaky tables to begin with, preferably choppy. If this is too much for you, I'll also be covering OTB4L which is another great way to handle Neutral shoes and far simpler


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System 40 progression selection:

Your choices are:

1. No bet

2. Flat bet

3. U1D2 M2 but go back to 1 with your first OTR bet

4. U1D2 M2 throughout

5. U1D2 M3 B2 throughout

My first remark here HAS to be this:

I always start System 40 playing U1D2 M2 with a 1 bet at play 2. BUT I have ALWAYS already qualified the table and the shoe color as Choppy (+OR count) FIRST.

You should do the same whenever possible. If you have no opportunity to do so it is best to not bet at all until you know the direction of the OR count as +, - or Neutral.

Now, as soon as I know the shoe is going well I switch from a 12345 prog U1D2 M2 to a 23456 prog U1D2 M3 B2 because the 23456 progression can make more money with less risk in a good + count shoe. ALL +count shoes are good.

I'm getting an 80 play +5 final count shoe posted both ways so you can see the difference. But what if you are unsure? Go to the 3rd option above:

Here you are betting U1D2 M2 but You are playing a separate progression on your OTR bets only. Your first OTR bet is 1. But if you lose, THE NEXT time you go OTR your bet is 2 and next time 3 and so forth.. You are still playing U1D2 M2 on your OTR bets but you are doing so exclusive from your regular opposite bets. So your Opposites follow one progression starting at 1 and your repeats


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follow another U1D2 M2 progression starting at 1. It is best to color your OTR bets red when you do this. Make only your OTR bets red. So the red progression always takes up where it left off and the blue progression likewise. BTW, THIS is how we were betting when we won 40 shoes in a row at 5 different casinos. Some of you more conservative bettors may choose to play this way ALL the time. It certainly wins a lot of shoes. And at lower risk!

Progression Cash Management:

In the 12345 progression I almost never make a 6 bet W/O waiting for a paper win first. Even then, I may well make another 5 bet instead of a 6. (Capping at 5)

Likewise in the 23456 progression I'll wait for a paper win before making a 7 bet which often becomes another 6 bet. It just depends on how much I'm ahead. If I'm not ahead at all, I'll likely quit the table right there and either find a better game or quit the session.


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One other thing from a Cash Management standpoint. Note in the 23456 version of the sample game I went back to basing at 1. OK I can see the shoe is about to end. I can either quit, which would have been the better judgment in the sample shoe, or I can base at 1 to avoid the specter of ending the shoe in a runaway 23456 progression. I should have quit.


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  • 4 weeks later...

Hi Keith,

When playing system U1D2M2 using a progression 12345 after unit 5 loses do you keep betting 5 units, or go back to 1 unit and start again or do you wait for a paper win . What is your next bet ?

I have been looking for hours trying to find how to play F2&3 but cannot find a manual which explains how to play it. I did notice that the play is 123 or 234 or 345

If this is the case why do we use the progression 12345 using the S40 system ?

Lastly using the S40A can this be used playing Roulette ?

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