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How we know NOR works:


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How we know NOR works:

A deduction by E. Clifton Davis

Purpose: To take the time to learn a system thoroughly, then practice it, and then bet hard earned money on that system, a player must have full confidence in that system and KNOW that his system works.

It is one thing to play shoe after shoe at home and watch your system work.

But it is an entirely different thing when you have chips on the line in a casino. Confidence has a way of evaporating. What if there are thousands of dollars bet on Bank and your measly $25 is the only bet on Player? THEN, what if it turns out they were right and you were wrong. What are you going to do now? Somehow all that kitchen table confidence is gone with the wind. All kinds of thoughts go through your head. "Maybe my instructor is a scammer after all???" Every single winning player had to break through that barrier. They all had their critical moment. Some survive it and some don't.

We could correctly define NOR as a systematic way of playing biases. When defined that simple way, I have been playing NOR in one form or another for 30 years. I'm sure that ALL who have played today's NOR agree that it is the best way a bias can be played. So the REAL question is:

Are the cards biased or random?

I have explained how we know the cards are biased 8 ways from Sunday. The problem with such explanations is that unless you have an analytical, mathematical mind, such analysis leave you when the chips are down.

Let me quickly try one more time. Casino Baccarat profits today are at about 26% of the drop (Your buy in cash). Commission accounts for about 3% of the drop. If the cards were random, IN THE LONG RUN, all the Bank bets would be offset by all the Player bets and the casino would be left with commission only. Can you see that? But that is not what happens is it. Many WISH it was that way but it isn't, is it. Either you get that or you don't. Most still don't know for sure.

OK, an incident just occurred that should drive this bias question home to you once and for all. I think anybody can understand this. Is it the ONLY such incident? God no. I've witnessed thousands of such incidents. But this time we have the shoes to prove it and we will post the 16 shoes involved.

Two of our players, Keith and Little jim, walked into a casino (which shall remain nameless) a few days ago. There was only one table open and no one playing and the tote board was blank. They had no idea of what to expect except for one thing. They happened to know that this very table had been strongly favoring streak. So much so that a couple players had recently taken advantage of this and took that table for a record amount of money.

Now the fun starts. The first shoe was significantly choppy. The NOR chop third system killed the shoe. Not so unusual. The odds of the first shoe being in the chop third are 1 out of 3. BUT, so were the next 15 shoes. They won 16 straight shoes W/O ever changing systems.

Now, what are the odds of 16 shoes being in the chop third? Well the odds of the first are 1 out of 3. The odds of the second are 1 out of 9 (1/3 X 1/3). Ok now keep going 16 times. You will soon see that the odds of 16 same 1/3 type shoes in a row are 1 in 43 million.

Now OK, you can believe that they got lucky and just happened to walk into a 1 in 43,000,000 opportunity. Sure, and on the way home they won the lottery.

Or you can believe the cards aren't random.

We will post the shoes.

I rest my case.

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At first you will lack confidence, perhaps get the jitters when you walk into a casino, let the casino and other players intimidate you. But as you begin to succeed that goes away. The day comes when you KNOW you will win. You simply don't allow anything else. You abide by your stop losses and your captures. You won't care what the others do. You know what you know and you become your own player. Your only enemy is yourself but you learn to keep yourself in check, to leave unbeatable tables and stick to only the tables you can beat. That is when you are on your way. Study and practice, study and practice.

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It is one thing to play shoe after shoe at home and watch your system work.

But it is an entirely different thing when you have chips on the line in a casino.

How very true. It seems like almost every system I try works at home! It is another

thing at the casino. I can't count all the times I have been torn between a bet that

follows the system or one that follows a trend. Then add the fact that the same bet

could be an 8 or 10 unit swing. You MUST have confidence enough in what you are

doing to make that bet. It's always easy on the kitchen table.

I have now played NOR twice in the casino, and have gone +54 in AC and +24 in parts

of 2 shoes in Seminole Coconut Creek (a total of about 30 hands). The more I see this

system work the more confidence I have in it. I find myself staying in S40 most of the

time, occasionally in OTB4L and hardly ever in F. The shoes I have been seeing rarely

show runs of more than 3. It seems when the go more than 4 they go to 8 or more.

The Coconut Creek casino has only recently put in bac. The pit boss said it was last

Dec. There are 2 tables seating 9, with only one open during the day. The minimum

bet was 15 during the day and 25 at night. They have a nice tote board on each

table and they do not allow players to handle the cards. I had no trouble finding a seat

as I always do in the Hard Rock. There is no hotel there (yet) and they have a

continuous shuttle from the parking lot (4 stops) to the front door - very player-friendly.

I will be visiting them again next week to continue working on NOR.

I will keep you informed on my progress.

Paul

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  • 2 weeks later...

First 4 shoes at Coco Creek this week:

+19, -11, +19, +10 after commission

Interestingly enough, the only shoe I

played from the start of the shoe was

my only loser. The more I play, the more

I see the value of knowing what the shoe is

doing. Tote boards are invaluable. I don't

think I will ever play without them again.

I will play a few more shoes and give

a more detailed report in a day or two.

Paul

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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...

Dear Ellis,

I often find myself confuse when walking in the casino trying to spot the right table to play ..

Its there a summary of things to spot when looking on the tote board for example if we see lots of 1 and 2s what should we do ...

and also the o/r count is there any method that make us count quicker?

NOR works for me but when in the casino i always get too nervous........

Hope that anyone with enough experience could share with me...

Thanks.

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Dear Ellis,

I often find myself confuse when walking in the casino trying to spot the right table to play ..

Its there a summary of things to spot when looking on the tote board for example if we see lots of 1 and 2s what should we do ...

and also the o/r count is there any method that make us count quicker?

NOR works for me but when in the casino i always get too nervous........

Hope that anyone with enough experience could share with me...

Thanks.

Vin, this part is not hard and I'm sure it has been well explained before but let me see if I can make it clear cut for you:

The first thing you must do is give yourself a chance to get your casino hat on. Your mind is still back on the road someplace or maybe still in the airplane. You need time to adjust to your new surroundings.

The biggest mistake you can make here is get in a rush. Players make the mistake here of thinking in terms of dollars per hour. That is what you are used to in the outside world. That is fine for the outside world but works against you in a casino. Once inside a casino forget dollars per hour. In fact forget about time altogether. Time is the biggest advantage casinos have and the biggest disadvantage you have. You've got to get time working for you instead of against you. Train your mind to forget time and think only in terms of dollars. This makes your mission much clearer.

OK, now, what is your FIRST mission? To find the easiest table to beat in the casino. You will eventually learn to do this in minutes but that is NOT important. Think about it this way - think about how much time you are going to waste if you pick the wrong table. See? You really have all the time you need to pick the right table, no matter how long that takes.

Now, what exactly are you looking for? The most biased table. What exactly does that mean? You want the chopiest (highest + OR count), or the streakiest (highest - OR count) or the most Neutral (consistently closest to 0 OR count.

But you don't need to stand there and do an OR count on every tote board. Usually you can skip a table at a glance. Whether horizontal or vertical, runs stand out on tote boards whether straight, ZZ or TT. But likewise, so does a lack of runs.

With a little practice, you get to where you can perform this whole table selection process in just a few minutes W/O counting anything.

And you can practice at home where mistakes don't cost you anything. How? With a stack of played shoes. Just glance at a played shoe and declare it Choppy, very choppy, streaky, very streaky or Neutral, very Neutral. Then check your guesses by performing an OR count.

It shouldn't be long where in a pile of say 20 shoes, you can select and pull out the choppiest, the streakiest and the most Neutral and be right in all 3 cases. Try this and you'll soon see. It is not nearly as hard as it seems.

After enough home practice your job becomes, as we say in golf, to get your game from the practice tee to the first tee. You've got to get your game from the kitchen table to the casino.

But once back in the casino you'll see that it is a relatively easy transition from a stack of shoes at home to a bunch of tote boards in a casino.

Just remember: Rome wasn't built in a day.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Hi Ellis,

I am training to look at the tote board and able to count it without actually writing down.

The question here is that when is the right time to enter the shoe?

I saw this before entering

P13112112-I enter by playing S40

then it goes 2 more banker and I played mode 3

The whole shoe :

P1311211421412246112

I ended up with a -10 units

The OR count move from 1-4 then maintain at 0-2 then moved on to -4

I always lose to this kind of shoe.....

Should I shift to OTB4L when my first S40 Mode 3 failed.....

Or should I quit when the first S40 Mode 3 fails ?

Or should I wait till the 20th hand before placing bet?

Thanks.

Regards,

Vincent

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Hi Ellis,

I am training to look at the tote board and able to count it without actually writing down.

The question here is that when is the right time to enter the shoe?

I saw this before entering

P13112112-I enter by playing S40

then it goes 2 more banker and I played mode 3

The whole shoe :

P1311211421412246112

I ended up with a -10 units

The OR count move from 1-4 then maintain at 0-2 then moved on to -4

I always lose to this kind of shoe.....

Should I shift to OTB4L when my first S40 Mode 3 failed.....

Or should I quit when the first S40 Mode 3 fails ?

Or should I wait till the 20th hand before placing bet?

Thanks.

Regards,

Vincent

Yes, Vincent you should have gone to OTB4L. Double 1's mixed with high 3 or mores is not great under any circumstances but you get fooled into 40 bacause you are seeing so many 1's. That mixture won't do great with anything but it will do best with OTB4L-3. If you started with OTB4L-3 you would have got to +9 with no draw downs betting a simple 123 4. Had you bet a 2 after your single 4 bet, as I usually do, you would have hit your +10, starting at the beginning. Not bad for 39 plays.

Note that the OR count keeps hitting and crossing 0, a dead giveaway for OTB4L. Your winning 3 bets keep you in Mode 3 against both straight and ZZ runs.

Net betting O vs R would also have done well up until the 6 in a row, but note how nicely OTB4L-3 handled the 6.

This is also one of those few occassions where 40-4 would have done well, which I sometimes speak of.

Yes, noting all those 1's was good but you have to also note that you are also getting high 4 or mores with them. That points to OTB4L-3.

Equally strong sides with all that early chop pretty much rules out F.

This shoe type, fortunately, is rather rare so I'm not surprised you had a hard time figuring it out. But this, too, will come with a little more experience.

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Can someone tell me what 123 4, as mentioned in post 9 ,means?

Well, I don't see it in that particular post but the 123 4 is our standard NOR starting progression once we know which system and which Mode to Play. The pause before the 4 is because we would not bet the 4 if we started out by losing the 123. All winning bets go to 1 except that you might opt to bet 2 after a winning 4 in a good shoe and we might opt to start our 234 at that point if we win the 2. If all goes well we upgrade to 345 after a winning 3. Check out the betting chapter in The NOR Approach thread.

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