Jump to content

New Shoe played at Casino Rama


Recommended Posts

Hi guys, This shoe was played last weekend, Sat Jan 28, at Casino Rama, in Ontario, Canada. I want to know your guys opinion on which system is best to beat this shoe and could you please explain me the finer points, as I am still trying to get a handle on the NOR Approach.

B 44211233

B 1215131321

P 18111

Thank you guys again for your help!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi guys, This shoe was played last weekend, Sat Jan 28, at Casino Rama, in Ontario, Canada. I want to know your guys opinion on which system is best to beat this shoe and could you please explain me the finer points, as I am still trying to get a handle on the NOR Approach.

B 44211233

B 1215131321

P 18111

Thank you guys again for your help!

Welcome aboard BUKOVICA!

Well you sure picked a beaut. Shoes starting with a 4,4 are so rare that I have never bothered explaining your options before.

OK, the first 4 signals F so we likely start with F2. This does OK at first but the second 4 gives us equal strength to both sides which we know F doesn't like at all. F wants to see a strong side and we don't have it here. I would likely quit at that point but for the fun of it, let's say there were no other tables.

OK, what NOR system handles 4,4s ? The only one is OTB4L M3. M3 because M3 beats 4s.

OTB4L 3 does fine for the first col.

Personally, I would have noted at play 8 that Repeats outnumber Opposites 6 to 1. So I likely would have simply bet straight repeats with only a 1,2 progression. Only a 1,2 prog because straight repeats is very dangerous. A ZZ of any length kills you. But straight repeats is not an official NOR option at least at the moment.

Either way you get through the first col OK.

Now the game gets interesting. Starting at play 18 we have an entire col. of sporadic 1's (single 1's). In fact we have TWO COLUMNS of sporadic 1's and 2s. Sure we could stick with straight repeats and do OK but which NOR system kills sporadic 1's. Answer: F. I would pick F3 because of the high incidence of 2's thus far. So we switch to F3 either at the bottom of the first col or anywhere in the top half of the second col and it holds up fine for the rest of the shoe. We get an easy +15 or maybe even 20 W/O advancing our progs.

Me, I would advance my prog at play 26 and again at play 32 to the 345 and now we get an easy +30. So easy that we would likely hang in there for +40.

BTW, whenever you are playing F because of sporadic 1's you are better off with F3 because while F2 beats the sporadic 1's just fine, F3 beats BOTH sporadic 1's and sporadic 2s.

Note that the 345 prog makes 25 units on the 8 in a row alone.

I would most likely quit this shoe at the play before the last play. I Never play the last play except when a shoe ends with a long run.

Edited by Guest
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi guys, This shoe was played last weekend, Sat Jan 28, at Casino Rama, in Ontario, Canada. I want to know your guys opinion on which system is best to beat this shoe and could you please explain me the finer points, as I am still trying to get a handle on the NOR Approach.

B 44211233

B 1215131321

P 18111

Thank you guys again for your help!

BTW, it would be hard for me to believe that a shoe this streaky (-7 O/R count in only 52 plays) came out of the clear blue sky. I bet two things: that this shoe was rather late in the day and the prior shoes also favored streak.

If this was the case, you would have every reason to start the shoe at play 2 with a 1,2 prog betting straight repeats. This gives you +9 at play 20. Then you upgrade to the 345 at play 24 and switch to F3 at play 25 after the second sporadic 1. Now you cruise right up to +57 at the 2nd to last play. And this shoe was only 52 plays. You only bet 49 times and your highest bet was a single 5.

Then you go straight to the cashier! You can't top that!

Edited by Guest
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks again for all the info Ellis, Im still trying to digest and understand everything. What I did in this shoe I came in at this table it was already around 25 hands or so, and I quickly saw that it was a good streak shoe. However I wasnt sure which was the strong side, and I played straight repeats and I did alright, I stopped at hand 52 because I had +18, so i thought id quit, plus a ZZ run had started so i decided to leave, thats why i didnt record the entire shoe. A little background, the time of day for this shoe was around 4-5 pm, not really late at night, but most of the tables were very mixed, and this one seemed the most decent one to me. By the way, these are Mini-Bac tables. In a few min, I'll post 4 shoes from today, to see what you guys make of them. Also, Im still not grasping the modes, cause when ZZ runs occur, or Straight Runs, depending on the system and shoe at hand, I get confused as to what mode I should be in, and maybe the modes switch on me depending on the runs, hopefully you understand what im trying to say. Any help there would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OK the first two shoes are Mini-Bac tables.

First shoe played at roughly 11:30 AM

B 22(1-5)51113

B 5

I pulled out of this shoe at hand 25 because the shoe had me confused from the start and I was uncertain which approach to take, luckily i minimized my losses.

Second shoe played at roughly 1:00 PM

P 11513121221

B 31331222111

P 44124311

P 113

I pulled out of this shoe at +15, I personally think it was too early but I wanted to be safe.

Next two shoes I did not play but I just recorded at the same time.

Big-Bac shoes played at roughly 2:00 pm

Shoe 1

B 11131133222

B 1121211223211

B 12241222121

B 51112214

Shoe 2

P (1-5)21141321

B 3(1-4)241312

B 2151115112

P 131313

Thank you for your time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Welcome aboard BUKOVICA!

Well you sure picked a beaut. Shoes starting with a 4,4 are so rare that I have never bothered explaining your options before.

OK, the first 4 signals F so we likely start with F2. This does OK at first but the second 4 gives us equal strength to both sides which we know F doesn't like at all. F wants to see a strong side and we don't have it here. I would likely quit at that point but for the fun of it, let's say there were no other tables.

OK, what NOR system handles 4,4s ? The only one is OTB4L M3. M3 because M3 beats 4s.

OTB4L 3 does fine for the first col.

Personally, I would have noted at play 8 that Repeats outnumber Opposites 6 to 1. So I likely would have simply bet straight repeats with only a 1,2 progression. Only a 1,2 prog because straight repeats is very dangerous. A ZZ of any length kills you. But straight repeats is not an official NOR option at least at the moment.

Either way you get through the first col OK.

Now the game gets interesting. Starting at play 18 we have an entire col. of sporadic 1's (single 1's). In fact we have TWO COLUMNS of sporadic 1's and 2s. Sure we could stick with straight repeats and do OK but which NOR system kills sporadic 1's. Answer: F. I would pick F3 because of the high incidence of 2's thus far. So we switch to F3 either at the bottom of the first col or anywhere in the top half of the second col and it holds up fine for the rest of the shoe. We get an easy +15 or maybe even 20 W/O advancing our progs.

Me, I would advance my prog at play 26 and again at play 32 to the 345 and now we get an easy +30. So easy that we would likely hang in there for +40.

BTW, whenever you are playing F because of sporadic 1's you are better off with F3 because while F2 beats the sporadic 1's just fine, F3 beats BOTH sporadic 1's and sporadic 2s.

Note that the 345 prog makes 25 units on the 8 in a row alone.

I would most likely quit this shoe at the play before the last play. I Never play the last play except when a shoe ends with a long run.

Ellis,

You Said that you don't change system in same shoe. There is a only one mini bac table in my casino and I have to change system mostly every shoe.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ellis,

You Said that you don't change system in same shoe. There is a only one mini bac table in my casino and I have to change system mostly every shoe.

Hi Cheng. No, I never said that exactly. What I said was I only end up changing systems mid shoe in about 1 out of ten shoes.

You want to put your emphasis on selecting the right system first through good table selection.

Of course, if there is only one table, like Hollywood, you lose your biggest advantage of table selection so all you can go by is prior shoes and sometimes not even that. So, yes, in that situation you are going to be switching systems more often.

What I'm trying to do is to keep players from chasing every whim of the shoe by changing systems all the time. You want to stick to the main bias of the shoe. Your OR count gives you a good idea what that is.

For instance in the Vegas game after the seminar (only one table at that casino) I made the mistake of letting an early 7 in a row influence me too much and I switched from OTB4L to F. Sure, I won the shoe with +5 units. But had I stuck it out with OTB4L I would have won +15.

Your best shoes will be the shoes you never switched. And your worst will be the shoes you switched the most.

You only want to change systems if, in fact, the main bias of the shoe actually changed and that is relatively rare but it CAN happen.

I think one of the main stumbling blocks of Maverick was he always went by the count of the last 7 plays. This had him forever changing from RDN to anti RDN or vice versa often at the worst possible time. YOU can count to 7. But the shoe CAN'T. The shoe doesn't know it's supposed to stay consitent with the last 7 plays. Shoes have a nasty habit of doing exactly what they aren't "supposed" to do. As often as not 7 plays can signal the shoe is about to change.

Similarly another mistake of Maverick was going exclusively to the 234 prog. You ONLY want to do that when you are winning your FIRST prog bet more often than you are losing it. When you are winning your 2nd or 3rd bet most often, you are far better off with the 123. "Put the emphasis on the bet you are winning the most often." For instance if you are never winning your first bet but your second and third bets are doing well you are best off to switch your prog to a 012.

Edited by Guest
Link to comment
Share on other sites

OK the first two shoes are Mini-Bac tables.

First shoe played at roughly 11:30 AM

B 22(1-5)51113

B 5

I pulled out of this shoe at hand 25 because the shoe had me confused from the start and I was uncertain which approach to take, luckily i minimized my losses.

Second shoe played at roughly 1:00 PM

P 11513121221

B 31331222111

P 44124311

P 113

I pulled out of this shoe at +15, I personally think it was too early but I wanted to be safe.

Next two shoes I did not play but I just recorded at the same time.

Big-Bac shoes played at roughly 2:00 pm

Shoe 1

B 11131133222

B 1121211223211

B 12241222121

B 51112214

Shoe 2

P (1-5)21141321

B 3(1-4)241312

B 2151115112

P 131313

Thank you for your time.

Well, again, I'll take the first one.

First, there is absolutely nothing wrong with bailing out "early". I only average 32 plays myself and I am often out in the first column if I hit +10. I have learned the hard way that such shoes have a bad habit of going South. There is nothing wrong with a quick +10 and the sooner you get out the less commission you pay.

Now, at 11:30 AM you are likely playing the first or second shoe after the morning card prep. Seldom are they already into a 3rd shoe at 11:30 AM. This means the cards are still "influenced" by the card prep. Casinos never prep for streak because streak is their worst enemy. Therefore at that hour of day you can pretty much rule out F. Most casinos prep for chop and a few for neutral, but never streak. If you don't know which they prep for you almost can't go wrong with S40. So I would likely start right at play 2 with S40M2 and I would likely not fool around with flat betting unless the shoe proved me wrong. This would put me already at +10 at play 16. I would strongly consider getting out at that point except that I'm on a ZZ run. So I would likely stay. But then I hit +11 for the second time at play 19. That is a very strong quit signal and I would definitely get out at play 19 with +11.

So see, you didn't get out too early. You probably would have done well to get out even quicker than you did.

Yes, your shoes seem VERY high in straight 5's. BUT, S40, esp M2, LOVES 5s.

I look at the first 2 or 3 shoes after the morning card prep as a virtual tell. I determine if they were going for Chop or Neutral with their card prep and then I play very aggressive.

This is why, for my personal play, I always play mornings and time it so I'm always there for the first shoe after tha card prep. Then, during that first shoe I'm watching for other tables to open. If so, I'll move to those tables so that I can play another first shoe after the prep. This is how I won nearly every shoe at Gold Strike Tunica for 3 years.

See, why wait if you already know what the shoe is highly likely to produce. There is a time for flat betting. But there is also a time to go for it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ellis,

When did we start betting straight repeats in the NOR system? Would you do this only when you don't see many 1s? What are the rules? Somehow I missed this idea.

ddbcinti

Right dd, we didn't. That is why I said that straight repeats is not a NOR choice. It is extremely rare, anymore, to see a high enough disparity to bet either straight repeats or opposites. But once in a blue moon we DO see such shoes. This shoe started out with a 6 to 1 disparity of repeats over opposites. That is about the minimum disparity you would want to see for straight repeats or opposites. As I said, OTB4L was also highly viable and would have been a good choice.

But I've also said that sometimes you see a bias so VERY strong that your best option is to drop whatever you are doing and simply play the bias. It is safest to only bet a 1,2 prog in these situations.

BTW, back in the '90s we used to see such strong biases on a daily basis. But not any more. So much for random cards. That is when I learned those tricks. Every now and then, casinos still screw up.

I can't emphasize enough how rare these situation are today, but sometimes you see shoes that are nothing but one straight run after another or one ZZ run after another or TT runs that go for 20 plays.

But note in the shoe we are discussing that strong bias weakened pretty quick to turn into an even stronger bias of sporadic 1's and 2s that continued for TWO columns. Now for that, NOR DOES have the perfect solution.

Edited by Guest
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

Terms of Use