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Bacarrat Progressions


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Ellis,

Interested in your opinion---

Have you ever considered using a D'Alembert progression with Bac?

The progression would be a 1-1.5-1.5-2-2.5 up one as you lose, down one as you win, risking 8.5 units with a minimum win goal of 4.5-5 units.

Yes, but here is the thing: You are far better off to concentrate on improving your hit rate rather than attempt to compensate for a poor hit rate with a watered down prog. Anyone who learns to play biases well can get there hit rate above 50%. From there you are better off to put the emphasis on the bet you are winning the most (first or second) and deemphasize the bet that you are losing the most. If, in the shoe at hand, you are usually losing the first bet of your prog you should make it a 1 bet or even 0 in drastic cases. But if you are usually winning your first bet you should make it 2 or 3.

If you are relying on your third bet you should quit the shoe.

If you aren't winning your first bet more than losing it, you are playing the wrong system. You always want to be playing the system that wins the FIRST bet the most often.

No prog can save you if you are playing the wrong system no matter how much you water it down or, for that matter, how much you gear it up.

Bet placement out ranks bet progression.

Get your bet placement (system selection) correct and your prog will take care of itself. Then put the emphasis on the bet you are winning the most. Hopefully it will be your first bet, hence, 234 then 345.

Until you get up to speed on bet placement the D'Alembert prog is going to hit -5 just as oftem as it hits +5. All tests demonstrate that.

Once you ARE up to speed on bet placement, going for only +5 will seem a waste of time.

Which brings up flat betting:

Here is my take on that:

Flat betting only helps you if you are losing.

Flat betting can only win if you win more bets than you lose.

But any time you win more than half your bets, a prog would have won more.

End of story.

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Let me give you a practical example:

Suppose a shoe started out with 7 Banks.

For whatever reason your bet placements were PP B P B P B.

OK you see that you lost 4 bets and won 3.

So if you flat bet, your score is -1.

If you bet the above D'Lembert you also score -1 and -1 is your best position thus far.

But if you bet a simple 123 negative prog like NOR does (up 1 when you lose, back to 1 when you win) Your score is +2 even though you lost more bets than you won.

This is why I say D'Lemberts and flat betting only help you when you lose. But the whole object is to win. And that is a question of bet placement.

In this case we lost more bets than we won but still ended up winning quite nicely`with a 16.7% PA.

Do you get my point?

By the time your D'Lembert gets you to +5, I'll already be at +10 or +15 having won and lost the exact same bet placements. I can lose more than half my bets and still win the shoe. You can't!

BTW, had you bet U1D1 like Keith is doing you would still only be at +2. You just bet more to get there.

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Hi Ellis,

Related to your simple 123 negative progression, I do have a question.

If you lose the three bets progression, your next bet will be 4, 5, 6, 7 (going up when you lose) or go back to 123?

Thanks.

finas, you need more study of the betting chapter in your manual:

In Mode 2, our preferred mode, your highest bet is 3. When you lose a 3 you go back to 1.

Only Mode 3 has a 4 bet and even then, only if it would have won last time. So we very seldom bet 4.

Only the 345 prog has a 5 bet and we usually only go to the 345 in Mode 2.

We NEVER bet more than 5.

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  • 4 weeks later...
finas, you need more study of the betting chapter in your manual:

In Mode 2, our preferred mode, your highest bet is 3. When you lose a 3 you go back to 1.

Only Mode 3 has a 4 bet and even then, only if it would have won last time. So we very seldom bet 4.

Only the 345 prog has a 5 bet and we usually only go to the 345 in Mode 2.

We NEVER bet more than 5.

Hi Ellis,

Do you have a thread that has detailed coverage on Mode 2 & 3? I guess many of us would come to a stage where we are confused by mode and bet progression. Can this relationship be structured in a form of table to demonstrate how 123 4, 234 and 345 blend with the modes?

just as you quoted above, "In Mode 2, our preferred mode, your highest bet is 3. When you lose a 3 you go back to 1"....what if we win a 3, do we continue as 3 or reduce to 1?

and what does the underlined mean? "Only Mode 3 has a 4 bet and even then, only if it would have won last time. So we very seldom bet 4"

Rgds,

Raymond

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Hi Ellis,

Do you have a thread that has detailed coverage on Mode 2 & 3? I guess many of us would come to a stage where we are confused by mode and bet progression. Can this relationship be structured in a form of table to demonstrate how 123 4, 234 and 345 blend with the modes?

Ha Raymond, see, we told you you'd be confused the first few days. What happens is the first time you read your NOR Manual it isn't clear because you are just getting used to our lingo. But it becomes clearer with each reading. It is also a good idea to make copies of the 6 purposely simple shoe examples so that you can refer to them while you are reading your manual. Make sure you have both your Manual and the 6 sample shoes. There is a detailed Mode chapter in your manual.

just as you quoted above, "In Mode 2, our preferred mode, your highest bet is 3. When you lose a 3 you go back to 1"....what if we win a 3, do we continue as 3 or reduce to 1?

In NOR, ALL winning bets go back to 1.

and what does the underlined mean? "Only Mode 3 has a 4 bet and even then, only if it would have won last time. So we very seldom bet 4"

Rgds,

Raymond

Mode 3 is the only time you can get to a 4 bet because in Mode 2 if we lose our OTR 3 bet, we go back to 1.

The first time you get to a 4 bet in Mode 3 you don't bet. You see if that 4 would have won or not. If it would have won, next time the 4 comes up you bet it but very often you are already out of the shoe by then. This is why we seldom make 4 bets. For example in the 6 shoes I played for the guys in AC I only actually made one 4 bet.

BTW, there is nothing that says you MUST bet 4. In fact there is nothing that says you must go OTR (on the run). Sometimes the shoe is so choppy that there are virtually no runs. In this case it would be foolish to bet on runs. You would simply stop betting and wait for the run to end and then restart with a 1 bet.

Another way to avoid 4 bets is to bet 1 instead. If it loses, next time an OTR bet comes up you bet 2, and if that loses next time bet 3. If that loses you need to quit making OTR bets altogether.

This will all start making sense to you in a few days. All were new members at some point. And they all went through the same learning curve you are going through right now.

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