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How to PROPERLY count ZZ runs


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Hello all! I'm having a major hangup in counting zz runs properly. I continually come up one short, and as Ellis says, if my Bac math is wrong its all wrong! I just can't seem to wrap my head around this simple concept and was hoping someone had an easier way to visualize this (or maybe i missed the thread where it was explained in greater detail). I don't want to simply "add one" to my count, I truly want to "understand" the concept, then it will be mine forever...HELP!

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Well, you aren't the only one. Virtually every Baccarat book ever written got this wrong which led to further mistakes like they say that ZZ runs are shorter than straight runs which is ridiculous since overall there are just as many opposites as repeats. There are just as many ZZ runs the same length as straight runs.

Consider this: All straight runs start with an Opposite. Therefore all ZZ runs must start with a repeat. You don't know that a straight run is in fact a straight run until the 2nd play of it. That top circle could just as easilly be the 2nd circle of a ZZ run.

Suppose a shoe starts with P2112. That produces a ZZ run of 4 starting at play 2 and ending at play 5. But you don't know it is a ZZ run until play 4. Play 3 could be the start of a straight run.

You sorta half to go back and count the length of a ZZ after the fact. Straight runs are very visual and therefore easy to count - so many circles in a row. ZZ runs are not that visual because you never know when a repeat is going to be the first play of a ZZ run. Likewise you never know when an Opposite is going to be the first play of a straight run.

It is very confusing at first and fooled a lot of top math heads.

Sure, you could count the 1 in a rows and add 2 but that is sort of a BS way of doing it.

Do it this way:

ZZ runs ALWAYS start with a Repeat and that repeat is always the last repeat in the shoe before the ZZ. That Repeat is the first circle of your ZZ run. And the last circle is the last Opposite in the run.

This will soon become second nature to you. Once you get that stumbling block right all other Bac Math fits right in to a balanced picture.

So, are you confused more than ever now or are you starting to get it?

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I know you know how to count ZZ's I was just making a point of the game start play being unknown - we do not know if it is a single or a repeat above it. We don't know what the first play of a game start is, and we don't care when we count ZZ's Do we boss?

"If you don't think too good, don't think too much!!"

-----------------------

John

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No, we don't care. I noted that PJ didn't count the first event at first but then later thought better of it. It has always been a question of whether or not to count the first play because we don't know if it is an opposite or repeat. The OR count can't start until play 2. But a PB count can start at play 1.

A game must start with either a 2 or two 1's.

If a table has been generally choppy or I'm playing with new cards, I usually start a shoe starting with a 2 at play 3 betting opposite because I still have a choice of S40 or OTB4L. But if a shoe starts with a 1,1, I usually wait another play.

However, if I'm playing completely in the blind, which I rarely do, I'll wait longer.

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Hi Ellis - do you have a simple quick way to compute the +5? i realise i have to take slightly less than a minute to do the math. I am sure you have a quicker way... :)

Not really. I've just been doing this so long I can play a simple pattern like that in my head very easily. The ZZ tells me to play S40 and the 3s tell me to play mode 3. Starting at play 2, you have 5 opposites giving you +5. Then the 3s break even if the last 3 stays 3. You will be doing the same thing after a while but starting out you'll have to play it out because you just can't picture it in your head yet.

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Hi Ellis,

What does "Big excursions into plus and minus" mean? Are you trying to mean if the OR count in a particular shoe takes from high +/- and back to low +/-.....and such F2,3 will fit best.

Rgds,

Raymond

Correct. We rarely see that anymore. But like the 4 year old PJ shoe I used that had both an 8 ZZ and an 8 straight. The OR count went clear to +10 then back to - 1. We prefer shoes that hover 0 closely rather than taking big excursions before returning to 0. That shoe type is so rare that I usually don't mention it and just use 3 shoe types; Chop, Streak and Neutral to keep everything as simple as possible. Those 3 types cover the vast majority of the shoes we see today.

Edited by Guest
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