Refreshing note

[Bull21]

I would be pleased to meet you again one day or the other Ellis, if you can remember me staying in your house, jumping over wires, looking to insane animals flowing through your house. How are you doing? A lot has happened to me in the mean time. By example I have written a book about love and the observation of human suffering while playing poker counting cards in Vegas. I am having an open mind for all in life. I think we can create only progress not to be fixated one way or the other. When April 15 happened, better known as black Friday last year I was sitting at MC Donald in Vegas in which I realized that the American dream now needs to be lived in bankrupt Portugal just for the meantime. I have stayed in the USA for 11 years illegal after divorcing my American wife who I was married with for only one year. I took a flight to Vegas and never looked back, counting cards and playing poker. I never forgot you though. My laptop broke down for a few days and I took of to the casinos in Estoril and Lisboa watching the shuffle machines. It always bugs me that I can see that NBJ will work very well against those machines but only if the situations are right. So the most important thing is to know when things are not OK in order to avoid damage.

so I looked and what I did notice? They burn a card using shuffle machines. The same type they use now almost everywhere. The continues shuffle machines) I sit down and the only thing I did was hitting when lows where running. Playing basic with random ten ratios (3.25) To my findings NBj works first base perfectly only when you have 4 or 5 boxes played inclusive that of the dealers. but as soon we play 6 or 7 boxes (full table) I can not find a way to win with NBJ. So what I am doing wrong. I have bought the NBJ manual but lost that moving around. So it would be nice if I could download it again if you remember me. Things has been evolved and would like to be informed about how to proceed from here. I kind of forgot the conditions in which we can play winning against the machines from the last spot or any and if we should play only against 4/5 spots cause than NBJ will work! Playing heads up against the dealer will randomize the cards very fast playing in a shuffle machine but how are we going to do that. I would love to get in touch with players here. If any of you would like to take a holiday in Portugal you are welcome to stay in my house for free so we could hit the tables and discuss learn. You can only do so much. part of a team would be a great thing to cause that will increase the progress.

Ok Ellis you can reach me at thebarkingstorkonstage11@gmail.com and for you all others I would welcome any discussion.

All the best!

[Guest]

Hi Bull21. As many players have stayed at my house and since I have taught more than 5000 BJ players, I would need better clues to identify you. Also. if you identify yourself to Keith@beatthecasino.com and explain you have lost your NBJ manual. I can verify and he will give you temporary access to download a new NBJ manual.

Your BJ observations are good but I can be more explicit.

First, ALWAYS avoid 6 or 7 player games because in the long run they are unbeatable regardless of what system you play. Granted, you can get lucky at 6 or 7 player tables from time to time but you don't want to be depending on luck. The odds are decidedly against you. The casinos know this perfectly well which is why they started crowding up tables by closing tables in the early '90s. Your best bet is to ALWAYS avoid such tables.

5 player tables are iffy. I would never become the 5th or more player at any table. I would only stay in a 5 player game if it grew to 5 players while I was playing but I was winning anyway - which is seldom the case. Usually 5 player tables go to hell in short order so I would be watching for the worm to turn and hoping players would get out.

4 players is the max you want to play with but the fewer the better. Decidedly your best odds are head to head play. But you always want to be positioned at 3rd base in heads up play because a single player will always randomize the cards eventually giving 3rd base NBJ player his maximum advantage in all of BJ. Now he might start by playing the NBJ First Base Strategy from 3rd base but he is looking to switch to 3rd base NBJ strategy as the cards randomize. I have often said that a 3rd base head to head NBJ player in random cards is virtually in a can't lose situation once the high and low clumps have disipated. But meanwhile he can play whatever clumps still remain until they fully dissolve which they eventually will.

One trick I and other top NBJ players use is to ask the pit boss to raise the table minimum once we are in that perfect random cards head to head situation. This helps to keep the game head to head and we should be raising the stakes in that situation anyway. By that time, I have usually worked my way up to a 1,4,6 progression. Once I have won 3 piles of 10, I usually raise the stakes anyway. I play extremely fast and I'm looking for a profit rate of $10,000 every half hour at only $100 play. So it is in my interest to go up to 2, 8, 12 ASAP. When I raise the stakes I usually go from 1,4,6 to 2, 6, 8 but if all goes well I'm looking to go to 2, 8, 12 as soon as reasonable. While I'm always looking for the worm to turn, I have often sat as long as 10 hours in such games. If all continues well I skip the 4, 16, 24 and simply advance to $500 chips at 1,4,6.

You seem to be leaning toward First Base NBJ which is fine in that perfect window of clumping but the big money is in 3rd base NBJ, especially head to head against random cards.

You would not want to play 1st base NBJ head to head for any length of time. The trick to 1st base play is it is extremly player number sensitive because you can't survive on first card tens only. You need to be getting at least your fair share of 2nd card tens and that is strictly a function of player number. But there is no optimal set number of players. Each table has its own optimal player number. Some 1st base games will play best with 2 players, some 3 and some 4 and occassionally even 5. It is definitely in your best interest to determine the optimal player number at the 1st Base table you are playing. Then you can adjust your betting aggression accordingly as the player number changes.

One neat trick I use once I know the optimal player number is this: Suppose the optimal player number for the table I'm playing is 4 but a 5th player strarts to sit down. I'll say something like: "Hey buddy, nothing personal but the last two guys that tried that seat lost their shirts. I think it's jinxed." That usually works!

Well Bull 21, if it is NBJ discussion you are looking for, you've come to the right place. Sorry I can't quite place you yet but don't take it personal.

Wires? Animals? Hmmm, you lost me there. I don't recall ever having exposed wiring or insane animals. At least they seemed sane to me. But that might just be my point of view. But yeah, if I had a filming project going on, there might have been wires everywhere. Ahh, Holland maybe???

Edited May 27, 2012 by Guest

[Guest]

BTW Bull 21, and any other BJ enthusiasts, there is a brand new private BJ forum you, as a manual owner can join. It only costs $5 a month. The advantage is that discussion can be far more detailed and we can freely discuss proprietary information. While we are still in the start up stage, I expect The private BJ forum will shortly surpass the constant activity that our private Bac forum has long enjoyed. I think you can even join if you are still deciding which BJ manual you want to start with. Just cantact Keith@beatthecasino.com if you don't see an order format anywhere. Hey, all information helps. This game IS beatable for those who know how.

[Bull21]

Hi Ellis a few points here...

1. holland yes, that highjumper afraid of squels running through your house.

2. if we talk about the number of players at your table...we say 4 players means 3 players inclusive dealers hand?!

3."But you always want to be positioned at 3rd base in heads up play because a single player will always randomize the cards eventually giving 3rd base NBJ player his maximum advantage in all of BJ. Now he might start by playing the NBJ First Base Strategy from 3rd base but he is looking to switch to 3rd base NBJ strategy as the cards randomize"................................

....................I am getting confused here, headsup randomnizing the game means me playing one hand against the dealer one hand? I would understand the randomnizing process much better in a continues shuffle machine playing headsup, but in a shoe game the handshuffle will still clump those cards cause he does not shuffle more than 7 times what is only randomnizing the game correlating to one deck! So how many shuffles in a shoe game or how many hands will it take versus a shuffle machine making it random.

4. First base NBJ!.........they burn one card every hand they play! Does that not destroy the first base strategy? Shall we instead playing first box and second box when they burn one card every round before dealing started?

5. I will check with keith about the NBJ manual, when ever you want to come to Portugal let me know! You stay with me and we kill estoril! LOL

[Guest]

Hi Ellis a few points here...

1. holland yes, that highjumper afraid of squels running through your house.

2. if we talk about the number of players at your table...we say 4 players means 3 players inclusive dealers hand?!

3."But you always want to be positioned at 3rd base in heads up play because a single player will always randomize the cards eventually giving 3rd base NBJ player his maximum advantage in all of BJ. Now he might start by playing the NBJ First Base Strategy from 3rd base but he is looking to switch to 3rd base NBJ strategy as the cards randomize"................................

....................I am getting confused here, headsup randomnizing the game means me playing one hand against the dealer one hand? I would understand the randomnizing process much better in a continues shuffle machine playing headsup, but in a shoe game the handshuffle will still clump those cards cause he does not shuffle more than 7 times what is only randomnizing the game correlating to one deck! So how many shuffles in a shoe game or how many hands will it take versus a shuffle machine making it random.

4. First base NBJ!.........they burn one card every hand they play! Does that not destroy the first base strategy? Shall we instead playing first box and second box when they burn one card every round before dealing started?

5. I will check with keith about the NBJ manual, when ever you want to come to Portugal let me know! You stay with me and we kill estoril! LOL

Oh yeah, the squillels in their wire cages, usually. But they didn't bite that much.

No, we don't include the dealer when talking about the number of players.

Right "head up" or head to head means just you against the dealer.

Recognize that the more players in the game the more the cards clump because clumping is caused by the dealer picking up the break hands first (mostly low) and then the none break hands (mostly high).

But with only one player the dealer always picks up the players hand first and then her own nomatter who might have broke. So there is no longer anything clumping the cards. They will immediately begin to randomize but it takes several shoes to completely randomize the cards depending on the number of decks. The type of shuffle or machine really has little to do with it.

Playing a table that just reduced to one player is only your second best opportunity because it takes time to randomize the cards.

Your best opportunity in BJ is to play new cards head to head right after the new card prep. Most new card preps produce the most random cards you'll see all day. But you need to be careful with this because some casinos use a new cards prep that retains some of the boxed card order clumping. They do this because they know that clumping greatly favors the casino. It pays to know the standard procedures at the casino you are playing.

Recognize that continuous shuffle machines are designed to retain clumping. The casinos wouldn't have it any other way. But, in head to head play these same machines retain randomness. Machines don't create clumping. They just preserve it. The card pick up creates clumping.

Right, it takes at least 7 shuffles to randomize a single deck. But 6 decks would be 7 X 7 X 7 X 7 X 7 X 7. In other words all day. But hand shuffles only shuffle the cards 2 or 3 times. The machines are designed to duplicate hand shuffles. Therefore clumping is a fact of life except for new cards or lengthy head to head play.

Basic strategy was designed assuming random cards. Therefore it is in the casinos interest to deal clumped cards as much as possible. Clumping destroys the hit rate of Basic Strategy and produces the casino's profit rate of 15%. In reality the standard casino card pick up method should be declared illegal but casinos have too much political pull to ever allow that to happen. It would break them.

BTW, one casino in MN declared it was going to pick up all cards in reverse order just to prove me wrong. Their BJ profits immediately went to 0, actually proving me exactly right. They went right back to picking up the break cards first.

To beat this game you must understand how and why it is presented that way and know what to do about it. Recognize that if the cards are not random, they are predictable. One is the opposite of the other. You must know how to use their own cheating against them. That word "predictable" should give you a good clue.

Look, you don't need to know that the next card is going to be the 4 of clubs. All you need to know to beat them is, is the next card more likely to be high or low. That alone tells you how to play your hand.

But, if the cards are random, Basic Strategy with a 3 bet up as you lose progression played from 3rd base (last seat) will nearly always beat them and usually quite severely.

They burn a card every hand to counteract card counting. This is really just a waste of time since card counters always lose in the long run anyway. Right, it doesn't help the First Base NBJ strategist but it doesn't hurt him that much either. Most casinos don't bother with that because they realize it is just a waste of time.

Thanks for the invitation but my health prevents me from traveling right now. But let me know if you have any trouble getting a new NBJ manual.