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HotCooler

Advice for a newbie player

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HotCooler

Hi all, I'm a new Baccarat player from Singapore.

Started in Dec 2012, in my late 20s and having a day job. I have been playing for 2 months and things seem to be quite okay at this moment. I need to know, if I am winning by strategy or am I winning by luck? This is a very important question as I am not interested in just winning temporary money, I want a long term plan. That's question 1.

Just like to share a little of what I do in Casino.

My strategy

1) I only play Baccarat.

2) I play flat unit 75% of the time. I can either go 2x or 4x my unit depending on how confident am I on a shoe. I never go beyond 4x my unit. My unit now is $25. (Actually I did break this rule a couple of times because I wasn't discipline enough)

3) I walk around the casino whole day and look for a shoe that gives repeating pattern, once I identify a shoe that gives enough repeating pattern, I will bet according to the pattern. (My stay in casino is usually between 1.5 to 4hours)

4) I bring 20x my unit per trip, tries to win 100% or lose 100% of it. ($25 x 20 = $500)

5) I will leave the casino when I cannot focus or judgements are clouded by any internal/external factors; regardless of how much chips I have in my hands.

6) I never deny myself from profiting when there is opportunity and never allow myself to chase after losses/winnings for the sake of it.

7) I don't play every hand, only those I am confident. I don't allow myself to regret if that hand goes my way.

8) Lastly, I always tell myself it is not about the profit I am focusing every time I enter the casino, I am focusing on not to violate my rules!

A) I did take a risk. When I am in a winning streak of more than 3 days before, I am allow to use another $500 to see if I can make something out of it. (When I lose the 1st $500)

B) My income is 20% of the total profit within a month.

post-5516-14500261468898_thumb.jpg

After some time, I came up with a day's range column, you can see how much down under I went or how high up I went within a day.

Yes, I wasn't discipline in the first few days of January.

I am not here to show off or any sort, I believe many of you guys are doing much better than I am, in fact, I am only 2 months old. I need advice from you guys!

1) Am I winning by luck?

2) Is there any possible risk which you can identify from my play?

3) I am quite afraid of my winning streak, will I experience the same amount of losing streak in my Baccarat career?

PS: I want to get myself right before learning any system at all.

post-5516-1450026146863_thumb.jpg

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kachatz1
Hi all, I'm a new Baccarat player from Singapore.

Started in Dec 2012, in my late 20s and having a day job. I have been playing for 2 months and things seem to be quite okay at this moment. I need to know, if I am winning by strategy or am I winning by luck? This is a very important question as I am not interested in just winning temporary money, I want a long term plan. That's question 1.

Just like to share a little of what I do in Casino.

My strategy

1) I only play Baccarat.

2) I play flat unit 75% of the time. I can either go 2x or 4x my unit depending on how confident am I on a shoe. I never go beyond 4x my unit. My unit now is $25. (Actually I did break this rule a couple of times because I wasn't discipline enough)

3) I walk around the casino whole day and look for a shoe that gives repeating pattern, once I identify a shoe that gives enough repeating pattern, I will bet according to the pattern. (My stay in casino is usually between 1.5 to 4hours)

4) I bring 20x my unit per trip, tries to win 100% or lose 100% of it. ($25 x 20 = $500)

5) I will leave the casino when I cannot focus or judgements are clouded by any internal/external factors; regardless of how much chips I have in my hands.

6) I never deny myself from profiting when there is opportunity and never allow myself to chase after losses/winnings for the sake of it.

7) I don't play every hand, only those I am confident. I don't allow myself to regret if that hand goes my way.

8) Lastly, I always tell myself it is not about the profit I am focusing every time I enter the casino, I am focusing on not to violate my rules!

A) I did take a risk. When I am in a winning streak of more than 3 days before, I am allow to use another $500 to see if I can make something out of it. (When I lose the 1st $500)

B) My income is 20% of the total profit within a month.

[ATTACH]2451[/ATTACH][ATTACH]2452[/ATTACH]

After some time, I came up with a day's range column, you can see how much down under I went or how high up I went within a day.

Yes, I wasn't discipline in the first few days of January.

I am not here to show off or any sort, I believe many of you guys are doing much better than I am, in fact, I am only 2 months old. I need advice from you guys!

1) Am I winning by luck?

2) Is there any possible risk which you can identify from my play?

3) I am quite afraid of my winning streak, will I experience the same amount of losing streak in my Baccarat career?

PS: I want to get myself right before learning any system at all.

Welcome HotCooler

I read your post over and over, before deciding how to answer.

Without seeing anything more than an Excel spreadsheet, it is impossible to give simple answers which will be of any true help to you, with the exception of noting that you give many, many signs of consistently and knowingly violating your own RULE #8 as indicated above.

That you have so frequently been able to "recover" from so large of daily "deepest downdraft" amounts has likely emboldened you to the point where it is likely, as you so aptly observe, that very soon you will experience, and act on, your urge to GO ALL IN , and wipe out your bankroll in a single day's play.

That's the bad news.

The good news is you have chosen to visit the best doctor on the planet to diagnose and fix what ails you!

Yes, Dr. Ellis is very capable of dispensing the right combination of sound advice and proven "baccarat medicine" to make your play ( and more importantly, your results) so much better that you will quickly learn the answers to all of your questions above..before it's too late.

I suggest you immediately invest a portion of your profits into a full membership in this forum, where you will have 24/7/365 access to an incredible amount of information about money management, mental discipline and, yes, incredible strategies employed by like minded baccarat players from all over the world.

A small investment will provide a tremendous return , and more importantly, positively save you the many, many thousands of dollars in bankroll losses you will surely/definitely/undoubtably experience otherwise!

( PS- we have all made the very same mistakes you will make, until we found this BeatTheCasino forum we now call home...Do yourself a big favor, and don't " gamble" that your luck so far will be enough to ensure February will be as kind to you as December and January were...)

The fact that you are so organized to keep such precise records of your daily results suggests to me you are on the doorstep of a very lucrative baccarat experience...one which you will enjoy for many, many years to come..

Just be certain you open the right door...it is clearly marked, but many choose to ignore it. Hopefully, you won't be one of them..

In summary:

1) You've come to the right place, and there is a lifetime's worth of learning inside, if you are willing to take advantage of it.

2) In the meantime, keep your day job.

Best of luck to you and all of our forum members!

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Guest

Just a quick note for now HotCooler to let you know I'm not ignoring your excellent post. I have an appointment this morning but hope to be back tonight when I can take the time to do your post more justice.

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Guest
Hi all, I'm a new Baccarat player from Singapore.

Started in Dec 2012, in my late 20s and having a day job. I have been playing for 2 months and things seem to be quite okay at this moment. I need to know, if I am winning by strategy or am I winning by luck? This is a very important question as I am not interested in just winning temporary money, I want a long term plan. That's question 1.

Just like to share a little of what I do in Casino.

My strategy

1) I only play Baccarat.

2) I play flat unit 75% of the time. I can either go 2x or 4x my unit depending on how confident am I on a shoe. I never go beyond 4x my unit. My unit now is $25. (Actually I did break this rule a couple of times because I wasn't discipline enough)

3) I walk around the casino whole day and look for a shoe that gives repeating pattern, once I identify a shoe that gives enough repeating pattern, I will bet according to the pattern. (My stay in casino is usually between 1.5 to 4hours)

4) I bring 20x my unit per trip, tries to win 100% or lose 100% of it. ($25 x 20 = $500)

5) I will leave the casino when I cannot focus or judgements are clouded by any internal/external factors; regardless of how much chips I have in my hands.

6) I never deny myself from profiting when there is opportunity and never allow myself to chase after losses/winnings for the sake of it.

7) I don't play every hand, only those I am confident. I don't allow myself to regret if that hand goes my way.

8) Lastly, I always tell myself it is not about the profit I am focusing every time I enter the casino, I am focusing on not to violate my rules!

A) I did take a risk. When I am in a winning streak of more than 3 days before, I am allow to use another $500 to see if I can make something out of it. (When I lose the 1st $500)

B) My income is 20% of the total profit within a month.

[ATTACH]2451[/ATTACH][ATTACH]2452[/ATTACH]

After some time, I came up with a day's range column, you can see how much down under I went or how high up I went within a day.

Yes, I wasn't discipline in the first few days of January.

I am not here to show off or any sort, I believe many of you guys are doing much better than I am, in fact, I am only 2 months old. I need advice from you guys!

1) Am I winning by luck?

2) Is there any possible risk which you can identify from my play?

3) I am quite afraid of my winning streak, will I experience the same amount of losing streak in my Baccarat career?

PS: I want to get myself right before learning any system at all.

OK, first HotCooler, I want to commend you on your record keeping. Few do this and it tells us you are a serious player. We will have more to say about this later because there are important records missing.

You are averaging nearly 7 units per session (day) which is very good but can be improved.

First let's get to your first and most important question: Is this all just luck thus far???

No, I suspect it has a lot more to do with item #3 in your "rules". We call that "table selection". Very few bother with that but it is the single best way you can influence your "luck". Repeating patterns is only ONE bias and not the most important. The most important are:

Chop: we play S40

Streak: we play F

Neutral: (runless) (neither choppy or streaky) we play OTB4L

Strong sided (usually favoring Player) we play F

Once you are familiar with these common biases you'll find them easier to find and you'll see them more often. Each of these biases is easy to beat. We strive to find the easiest shoes to beat and pass up the difficult shoes. Baccarat is not about beating difficult shoes. It is about finding easy shoes and knowing how to beat them.

OK, I would like to see you change your progression from 124 to 123 4. WE Rarely make the 4 bet because it is only used in Mode 3. That is why I leave that little gap between the 3 and the 4.

For only when you get a really good highly biased shoe where you are winning your 1 bet the vast majority of the time I would like to see you add the 234 and 345 progressions. This gives you a good way to exploit really good shoes W/O resorting to a 4th bet.

However you will seldom get to the 345 in Singapore because you are forced to play preshuffled cards there - a slight disadvantage. But there will be times.

Recognize that when you lose a 123 you are down 6 first bets.

When you lose a 345 you are down only 4 first bets. Easier to recover.

However if you lose your current 124 you are down 7 units with the near impossible task of making that up with 1 unit bets.

Change your stop loss from -20 to -8 max. This means that if you find youself at -6 with a 3 bet due, you would quit the shoe at -6. My own average losing shoe is -4.

The fact is if you can't beat the shoe with 8 chips you are probably not going to beat it.

Your stop win BTW for a 123 4 is 10 units unless you hit +10 in your first 20 bets. If so you can increase your stop win to +15 or +20 depeding on how easily you hit those goals.

Also consider capture points. Once you get to +6, capture +1 and once you get to +10 capture +4. This will often put you in a can't lose situation. The worst thing you could ever do is end up losing a shoe where you were at +10 or even +20. Amateurs make this mistake all the time.

Keep your records by shoes!

Include the time of day and day of the week and your P.A. Player Advantage is units won/units bet. You want to be seeing double digit P.A. P.A. is the best possible measurement of performance.

Casinos have their times of maximum vulnerability and minimum vulnerability. These will emerge. You want to always play during Max vulnerability hours and avoid min vulnerability hours altogether.

In other words play less often but more effectively. Your records should be telling you when to play and more importantly when NOT to play.

Learn our short cut method of transcribing shoes:

P 3241325 = 20 plays

rather than: PPP BB PPPP B PPP BB PPPPP - Always work in column totals of 20 plays.

This way we can quickly transcribe your shoe to our own 1/4" graph paper to answer your questions accurately.

Learn our vertical way of keeping score. It is more informational and makes it much easier to play our systems W/O error as well as to see biases.

We've got a long way to go but that should keep you busy for a while.

Edited by Guest

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HotCooler

Thanks so much for all the replies.. i guess the information is too much for me to digest for now.. gonna take some time to really understand it and try it..

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HotCooler

Hi Ellis,

After going through your words over and over again.. I do have a lot of questions to clarify.

I'm wondering, will the NOR manual be as detail as possible? And also, can I ask questions if I don't understand the manual enough?

Lastly, when you say that Casino has their max vulnerability and minimum vulnerability hours, do you mean the Casino actually planned for it?

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bluetri

Hi Hotcooler!

To answer your question, "I'm wondering, will the NOR manual be as detail as possible? And also, can I ask questions if I don't understand the manual enough?" Your answer is a resounding YES!!! That is what the NOR forum is for! There are no dumb questions, ask anything that comes to mind. We have all been right where you are, WELCOME!

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