Correct system for different shoe starts?

[gman72]

I was reading back through my binder and came across this quote that I had marked to check on later. I guess now is later.

It was from post #327 by Ellis in the NOR+ thread:

"....in fact, at the first PA seminar I put all the possible 4 play shoe starts on the board and told the attendees which system to start with for each possible start..."

My question is: Does anyone still have this information and if so would you be willing to share? I suppose it's possible that it was only available to the seminar attendees and they are not allowed to share with anyone who didn't attend, but I'm hoping that's not the case.

This would be a really great tool to have to study. It would especially make the process of scouting the tote boards in the casino easier. You could look at the 4 plays at each shoe start and know exactly what system that sequence favors and then see if the shoe is still playing out that way up to the point where you are observing, and if so, you could jump right in feeling more confident about what system to use.

[Guest]

I was reading back through my binder and came across this quote that I had marked to check on later. I guess now is later.

It was from post #327 by Ellis in the NOR+ thread:

"....in fact, at the first PA seminar I put all the possible 4 play shoe starts on the board and told the attendees which system to start with for each possible start..."

My question is: Does anyone still have this information and if so would you be willing to share? I suppose it's possible that it was only available to the seminar attendees and they are not allowed to share with anyone who didn't attend, but I'm hoping that's not the case.

This would be a really great tool to have to study. It would especially make the process of scouting the tote boards in the casino easier. You could look at the 4 plays at each shoe start and know exactly what system that sequence favors and then see if the shoe is still playing out that way up to the point where you are observing, and if so, you could jump right in feeling more confident about what system to use.

Excellent question. I didn't mean to keep this secret - it's just much easier to show it on a blackboard.

No tricks here - just pure common sense. But with regular cards, this 4 play system selection process works about 90% of the time.

First, we can eliminate the P or B on the first play because it doesn't matter and this cuts the possible 4 play shoe starts in half.

S40 = mostly opposites: 112, 211, 121 - We start by betting Opposite.

F = mostly repeat: 4, 31, 13 - We start by betting on the Strong Side.

OTB4L = 22 We start OTB4L

OK, that's 7 possible starts. Did I miss any?

BTW, when we checked all the shoes played at the seminar thus far, this simple process worked every time.

But we also need to access what the table has been doing thus far. What did the blue shoe do last time? What did the red shoe do? Sometimes awaiting 4 plays does more harm than good. Once we know the table conditions we are usually best off to start at play 2.

Of course, new preshuffled cards throws all of this out the window. That is why I avoid them.

At the same time using the actual shoes played thus far we also demonstrated the pit falls of starting shoes too late as many members still do. If you wait for a very clear signal, you may have already missed the best part of the whole shoe. You may well be starting just when the shoe is due to change. Nearly all shoes have rough sections. You may be starting just in time for a rough section with no chips accumulated to carry you through.

[gman72]

Thanks Ellis.

You're right about the common sense. Now that I see it written out, it does appear to be pretty simple and straightforward. In fact, I'm sure each one of those start scenarios is discussed in one post or another I've printed out.

It's great to have them all in one place though. This is a must print post for reference.

[LittleJim]

Ellis

What about 1111 ?

[alice]

Hi Ellis

This is very helpful.

Thank you

Alice

[Guest]

Ellis

What about 1111 ?

Yep, that is the one I left out. Definitely S40.

[alice]

Hi Ellis

If the shoe starts with 122 is that OTB4L?

Thank you

Alice

[Guest]

Hi Ellis

If the shoe starts with 122 is that OTB4L?

Thank you

Alice

Absolutely Alice! OTB4L, either Mode, likes 2s, single 1's, 3s and 6s best of all.

With Mode 3 you can add 4s and double 1's.

OTB4L M2 hates 4s

OTB4L M3 hates 5s.

[mrvegas618]

My practice shoes at home using baccaratonnet.com I have been starting my play after the six - eight decision most times. Is this then waiting too long? Once I head out to live play here in Vegas I plan to initially focus on new shoes. So I should be able to determine what shoe I am in by the 4th decision according to these posts. I think I would have a problem with this if the shoe starts out as an F shoe, because in my practice I was always thinking the streak would end after 3-5 decisions.

[Guest]

My practice shoes at home using baccaratonnet.com I have been starting my play after the six - eight decision most times. Is this then waiting too long? Once I head out to live play here in Vegas I plan to initially focus on new shoes. So I should be able to determine what shoe I am in by the 4th decision according to these posts. I think I would have a problem with this if the shoe starts out as an F shoe, because in my practice I was always thinking the streak would end after 3-5 decisions.

No, it is not too long for Vegas which uses preshufflede cards. BUT, when you find a consistent table, THEN you might think about starting sooner. Otherwise play the way you practiced.

BTW, in the long run, half of all 3s go to 4 and half of all 4s go to 5. BUT in individual shoes, bet what the shoe is doing most.