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How many shoes to test? Ellis?

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Hi Ellis,

How many shoes or hands should we test to be sure our system is valid for the long run?


Hi maserati! First, welcome to the forum!

It depends on what you already know about the table. We should never play in the blind. We should be going by the tote board at a new table or other players score cards or the other players themselves.

Once at a table we should be going by prior shoes, paying close attention to shoe color.

We should avoid altogether new cards every shoe games (touch games) using preshuffled cards.

The less you know about a table the longer you should wait.

BUT, the more you know about a table, the less you should wait.

The mistake players make most often is waiting too long. If you wait until it appears to be a sure thing, you probably already missed your golden opportunity.

If I know the table, I usually start at play 2 or 3. (With OTB4L I usually wait for a 2 iar (in a row) or 2 opposites in a row. That cuts your starting risk in half!

But if I know a table to be S40 or F, I usually start right at play 2.

If I don't know anything, which is very rare, I'm usually in by play 5 or 6.

It is not about gambling on pure luck. That's for the amateurs and the sick. It's about making money on what you know. The more you know, the less you are gambling.

BTW, I drove a Maserati around the Belgian Grand Prix track at Paal.

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What is wrong with new cards that are preshuffled.

I have noticed at a casino that they are preshuffled and then the dealers split the card and shuffle once and stack them.

Sometimes the same table is choppy 75% of the shoes in the same day 3:1.

On another day it would be 1/2 or even reversed 25% choppy and 75% streaky.

It's the same table so how would you know how the table is. Is it that day or in general?

Also, why do you think that a table would do the same thing over and over again with preshuffled cards. It would be random especially when they shuffle and we cut, can you please explain that?

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