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Mathematician's Fallacy


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I found this on Reddit the other day... all credit to the original poster. Interesting post that does quantify why pure math doesn't tell the whole story for baccarat.

 

Mathematician's Fallacy

Mathematician's run millions and billions of shoe simulations when in reality a person is likely to never reach 100k shoes played live in a touch game.

Mathematician's fail to show Monte Carlo simulation of runs of 1000, 10,000, or 100,000 shoes played where all blocks showed a net loss.

Mathematician's need to write in the algorithm showing how many blocks of 1000 shoes net a profit or blocks of 10,000 shoes net a profit etc.

Simple math on how many shoes a person can play over their lifetime is as follows:

Avg. life expectancy of world population is 72.74 years (2019). Let's use 78.79 years which is the U.S.A. average. You cannot legally gamble in brick and mortar casinos until 21 years old. That leaves you with 57.79 years of bacc playing. Let's say you are a professional gambler and you play 8 hours per day, 5 days a week. Let's also say you play only the bacc games where you can touch the cards. These games average 1.5 hours per shoe. That's 5.33 shoes per day or 26.67 shoes per week or 1387 shoes per year or 80,135 shoes in a lifetime.

Now break out the simulation for 80k blocks and see if any of the strategies out there show a net profit.

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Mathematics is an exact science. Baccarat is a negative expectation game and you can not play to earn money. Perhaps with the aid of a smart phone with computer programs installed like the Ultimate Baccarat app you can beat the game. However some mathematicians believe that Baccarat is a random game and no computer can predict random decisions. 

Some players may make money playing baccarat. Perhaps they are gifted with Extra Sensory Perception (ESP).

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1 hour ago, donald said:

Some players may make money playing baccarat. Perhaps they are gifted with Extra Sensory Perception (ESP).

#1- I call that being lucky 😉

1 hour ago, donald said:

Baccarat is a negative expectation game and you can not play to earn money

#2- That I can agree with. Play for enjoyment, if you make a few bucks even better, #1 worked 😎

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Don't let variance beat you by forcing you to play badly.

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