bac-cracker
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Posts posted by bac-cracker
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Hi Ellis,
Again, I made up that show, but was trying to show you one part of the show had I been playing Repeats with net bet. Sorry for the confusing, I shouldn't do that anymore.
Anyhow, what I was asking was what are possible options for the single zz when I get to it while betting Repeats (not TBL).
Because when a 2zz happens, you basically have to bet repeat again if there were sporadic 1's. So it just seemed like I always had to 3 bet and then go OTR after.
I guess what you stated can also work with this system. After the first loss, I can flat the 2nd and basically I'm banking on 3+ SS.
Anyhow when you were talking about the f2 shoe, I wouldn't know its f2 on the first 3, so if you went full on in NOR+ from the beginning, it was bad for me which was what I was explaining, f3 would be your streak shoe at first as you are getting away with sporadic 2's unless history states otherwise which of course I would be on f2 after that first 5 bet, but by then I could have been out. So those were my 2 points.
Thanks for your information, I grab a bit of insight from you each time.
Kilieu, read post #6. Your shoe has no 2s at all so it is decidedly S40M1 which scores +21 with a highest bet of 2. Just remember to start your prog over when you lose the 1 under each straight run.Neither F2 nor F3 lose to either sporadic 1's or ZZ runs so I have no idea what you could be doing with F.
You play F2 in a shoe low in 2s and F3 in a shoe low in 3s.
So you would NEVER play F3 in a shoe with no 2s.
F2 scores +24 with a highest bet of 3 in your shoe without a single bobble. Just switch sides whenever you lose your 1,2. How hard could that be? You win your 3 bet EVERY time.
This is an absolutely ideal F2 shoe. You win a very high % of your first bets so you should be betting a 345 per your NOR manual. Had you played F2 to your manual with a 345 prog you win +48. This isn't even a full length shoe. It is cut and dry so figure out what the heck you are doing wrong1
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Hi,
Playing F usually doesn't work for me, not saying it doesn't work, but I always am too late and shoe changes or something goes wrong.
The shoe I was giving you was just an example I just made up as I typed the last post, if I played F, this would take you 5 bets from the get go if you were playing all P at the beginning, lose 3 bets, then go OTR lose, then you are at a 5 bet win, then lose the net 2 etc...
Just hasn't really worked for me out of all the times I played it. s40m1 was the savior for me after you introduced it few months ago... But the OR repeat recently has worked well for me, but I just wanted to ask you how you get away with those 1's once they come out in sets.
Let me give another shoe that is more like what I mean.
P531641
B4511135
P41134 (here if you went otr after 3 losing bets, you would have lost)
So lets just say you are on the repeat train and then you get the 1s, would you do what I did and go otr after 3 losses. The sporadic 1's force you to do this.
Let me know your thoughts.
High 1s and 2s is S40High 2s and 3s is OTB4L
High 3s or more is F
This is an F shoe. Both F2 and F3 beat all 1's. Later on you'll learn to play this shoe S40 M1 which will do even better. But learn Basic Nor first.
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Ellis,
Thanks for telling me how to play the repeats as sometimes s40m1 doesn't work and there are a lot of evens or 2's. Having a negative OR, spotting it and playing it helped a lot in my game as there was no other way to beat the shoe, well at least without much profit.
Anyhow, there is something I don't know how to get out of.
Lets say a shoe like this. I'm making this up now, but lets say we are playing the OR repeat.
P5324123
- its going fine up here
B511134113
- Ok, so you lose have to lose 2 bets to get all the sporadic single ones (usually there are more, but this is just an example)
- Basically my question is how to bet zz runs. What I do is hybrid NOR and after 3rd loss on repeat switch OTR and switch back if I lose. However, I have to basically do 3 bets on repeat all the time. Can't go OTR after 2 if there are few sporadic ones just because you would lose to these.
Anyhow, any advice, typically when it hits the OTR, I stay on until it breaks similar to an s40m1 move.
Another thing I have done, but don't usually do is for longer runs, It is a hybrid of a F and s40m1. I would stay on Repeat until it breaks and then when I lose my first, I go zz. Of course your a genius if it happens, but we may think of another system for this. Happens definitely more than F shoe.
Again, thanks for adding more tools in my game!!!
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Ellis,
I understand that at +/-3 you would either go SS or ZZ on the 3rd bet, but what if the the OR was +/-1 or (no bet or flat), or +/-2 (flat or 2 bet etc,something smaller than a 3)... of course the option of no bets.
For the shoes I have played, the issue with seeing the "PERFECT" shoe, is I come in thinking this is the perfect shoe and then I lose every bet as it changed on me. You are not too worried about that, or does this happen to you. Sometimes I come in guns blazing with NOR+ and thats it, its frustrating as the first half had I come to the table earlier, I would have killed the shoe. Other times, I know better now, and just flat my first few bets and even half bets and zero bets because its happened too many times that the shoe changed mid shoe.
Any advice on that?
I had suspected you were at that Webinar. Maybe I should have spent more time explaining that with OTB4L we use the OR count the opposite way for ZZ runs.Where to start and what triggers us to start will always be a question. Our first shoe we always start mid shoe so that we have about a half a tote board to go by. That gives us our biggest advantage. We would be smart to start every shoe that way. Some of our best players do exactly that.
Some players start by jumping on a run ST or ZZ. This is not too bright because whether or not a run will continue is always 50/50.
At an S40 table I like to start after a 2iar because the only thing then that can beat my first prog is a 5+. My odds are way better than 50/50.
For the same reason, at an OTB4L table, I like to start after a 3 either ST or ZZ.
But note that I had already determined the table type. That is what table selection is about. We should NEVER be starting a shoe W/O knowing what shoe type it is - which system we are going to play - either from prior shoes or from the tote board of the current shoe.
In your shoe, I was assuming the prior shoes were OTB4L which was very likely the case.
The problem with posting shoes is that we are always taking that shoe out of context. We don't know the table history.
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Ellis, I believe I paid for that webinar, I saw some of my charts after that webinar that were +/- 2 and I didn't act because I believe you said on your first bet, it should be +/-3 didn't you? and when its 0, no bet. I didn't see anything about just being + or - as I figure +/-1 would be neutral.
Anyhow, another question, is this only for the first bet? Because the 2nd bet might be different because of the OR count, but then again, it could be a long run after the +3 on your first bet... just wondering.
Makes more sense this way and yes, it won't happen all the time.
OK, good question well put. So you are OK with everything up to play 18, right? Your question is how do we know to go OTR on the ZZ run at play 18.You must have missed the Webinar where I explained that we are better off to determine Mode by the OR count rather than the 3rd bet rule. You either missed it altogether or it didn't fully take.
Mode 3 is our chop mode (+ OR count) We are trying to outlast ST runs because the + count means they are short
Mode 2 is our streak mode (- or 0 OR count) We want to get on ST runs earlier because the - count means they are plentiful (simple math)
That is for STraight Runs.
But recognize that when playing OTB4L, it is the exact opposite for ZZ runs (again, simple math)
So at play 18 the OR count is +2 so we go OTR Mode 2 (earlier) because ZZ runs are most likely to go longer with a + OR count.
So will you always be right? Of course not. But you will USUALLY be right because you are betting according to the history of the shoe.
Now I call that simple math BUT in fact it did not become obvious to me until about a year ago.
But look at this: Using the 3rd bet rule we have no idea of what mode to play our first run whether STraight or ZZ.
Another huge problem with the 3rd bet rule is in a back and forth shoe we can be wrong every time.
So I consider using the OR count to determine Mode FAR more accurate than the 3rd bet rule. That is why we had the Webinar on it.
And the OR count is of particular help on the first run you come to where the 3rd bet rule left us guessing.
Now the guys who paid for that Webinar to learn exactly what I'm teaching you now have every right to be pissed at me for teaching you this for free. But my job is to get everyone playing as well as the game can be played. At least that's the way I see it. But next time GO to the damn Webinar. That is what they are for.
kilieu, in the same Webinat I also taught S40M1. So you are probably in the dark on that too. But we discussed the fact that you are usually better off in Streaky shoes to play S40M1 rather than F. This is particularly true of streaky shoes that have no strong side.
So in your shoe, I automatically went to mode 2 at play 18 W/O a second thought because using the OR count for Mode selection is the best way to play. Even though That was the First ZZ run. - That is where the OR count method is of particular value.
Do you get it now? Simple math. Think on it for a while.
BTW kilieu, several of the guys that went to that Webinar have posted that the Webinar quickly paid for itself.
What are Webinars for? To cover new stuff we come up with that improves your play but was not covered in the manual.
Using the OR count to determine mode is the biggest improvement to NOR since its inception. Just as your post implies, NOR eventually boils down to being in the right mode at the right time. Now you have a way to be right most of the time. And isn't that exactly what Baccarat boils down to - being right most of the time.
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Yes, but why would I be in Mode 2. What I would have done was go OTR after the 3rd loss, then lose that and the 5th bet, giving me a 6 bet if I went balls to the wall.
This is very important as there are many things in OTB, that would take me to this position and it happens quite often for me. Of course I know I can go 2Hi, but I just want more insight on what to do when playing NOR+ and lets say the previous shoes are OTB.
Other examples, might be a 5iar SS, into a ZZ when it has been going 4iar for SS... so we are OTBm3.
Hmm, kilieu, my highest bet was a single 4 at play 18.The shoe was:
B11232321113
P221232121112
B141161
Starting at play 3 with OTB4LM2 U1D1M2 my bets were:
P1,B2,P1,P2,B1,B2,B1,P2,P1,B2,B3,B2,P1,P2,B3,B4,B3,P2 =+13
P3,P2,B1,B2,P1,P2,B3,P2,P1,B2,B3,B2,P1,P2,B3,P2,P1,B2,B3,B2 = +35
Don't need the 3rd col. I would have quit at play 33 with +30.
In Mode 2 you go OTR after 2 losing bets for 1 bet. Did you do that?
This one is pretty cut and dry.
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Hi,
Please let me know how you got away with the 6 bet around hand 16-21, that would get you at -8 and also take us out of a perfect otb shoe. Happens a lot where there is that one spot that screws you up before the shoe turns golden.
Thanks
Right, this is a great shoe either way, s40 or OTB4LM2.In fact so good that I definitely would have gone to U1D1M2 very early on with OTB4LM2.
Starting at play 3 I hit +35 at play 40. If you go passed that the dreaded 4iar brings you back down to +31.
But like I've said: There is a Baccarat god up there that frowns down on players who try to go more than +30. THAT is where I know from experience (bad experience) to QUIT.
The trick here is to KNOW to up your prog to U1D1M2. But you should have figured this out long before you won 10 out of your first 13 bets.
Granted we are only looking to average +5 these days. But that doesn't mean we look a gift horse in the mouth!
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B11232321113
P22123212 1112
B141161
Ok, This one was pretty straight forward, you could play either s40m3 or otbm3 and win.
Depending on when I saw the shoe, would determine how I bet. I think I even switched, I started with s40 and at hand 8-9 I went to otb.
1. OTB - Hand 16-21 it gets all weird and I would have had to do a 6 bet and this happens to me a lot (although I don't), but if this didn't happen, I would be able to go smoothly and capitalize on the rest of the shoe.
Having that the shoe was going good, I would at least do a 3 bet, then went OTR lost and then another 2 before winning the last... help
2. So would you say you would have stuck to s40 on this? s40 broke but at 44+ hands
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ahhh... Just added another tool to my game... thanks I get those shoes that "clump up" like this with rarely singles... recently in the past few months, I thought s40m1 was the answer.
After I posted this, I also thought of doing F2 instead of the killer F3, but its hard after the fact.
Where was the 4 bet you were talking about... Was it play 5 or another play?
Well there are many ways to play this shoe successfully but often simplest is best. It so happens I talked to Keith last night to see how he did playing Hollywood Sat. He said it was so streaky he just played repeats and did great. This shoe starts out extremely high in Repeats while low in 1's. That calls for straight repeats. You'll see that if you bet repeats starting at play 2 with an U1D2M2 prog you hit +21 at play 26 then lose the 1, quit at +20 at play27. Of course U1D1M2 would even play better.S40M1 starting at play 3 does well but why bother when there are so few 1's. The name of the game here is Repeats.
Guys, every shoe ever dealt ends up with either more Repeats or more Opposites except the few that actually tie. So an U1D2 prog on whichever one starts out higher is a very simple but effective way to play Baccarat. The down 2 feature gets you through the rough spots. Shoes that strongly favor one or the other, like this one, you add the M2 feature.
This one your highest bet was a single 4 at play 5.
I'm assuming the prior shoes at this table were also high in Repeats so you already knew how to start. But maybe you didn't know that. Fine, you soon do. This shoe had only 1 1iar in the entire first col. So Ok, this shoe goes to pure chop at play 27. Fine, either quit like I did or switch to Opposites.
This shoe has only 7 Opposites in the first 26 plays. Sooner or later that ought to be telling you something.
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Hi,
I alway have issues with shoes that start and look like F, but usually they never happen. Hard to play anyway.
Anyhow, have any ideas.
P2154332
B6112121111
At the beginning it was 215, I went strong side F3 and didn't work out too well.... then I also tried playing s40m1 and it didn't do well either
Much appreciated help needed. Happens a lot.
Thanks
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B3522332
P173131121
B111111131111311
No history. I came in late when it was 352... so I played OTB and won... but at around hand 40 on, it just looked like it was going s40, so I switched and gave it a shot and it actually worked out good... I noticed after that if I went back it would be good for s40m1, so I played that to the end of the shoe.
Would anyone try to play s40m1 at the beginning then for the section where it was 2s you could have flatted it... would have been perfect!!!
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Ellis, quick question for you.
I reread your comment.
"At the point of your first 3 bet, a +OR is saying Mode 3 and a minus or 0 OR is saying Mode 2"
I thought it was +3 we stay in chop and -3 we stay on runs... well that was for OTB. Is this still correct? And everything in between?... OR at 0, no bet and -2 to +2?
I didn't recall haven't an enhanced system for s40... is there? If there is, then that would help too!!!
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Again, I thank you both for the good info. By the way, I forgot to tell you prior to my losses this week. I was like 20-3 on shoes.
But at that time I was betting smaller and flatting a lot on losses in the middle of the shoe by just looking at my 4d and just playing more solid and laying off more hands.
Then I noticed that if I did play nor on those, I probably would have won more than not. So I jumped up my initial bet and I played it as I should have, but for some reason, I got really scared and didn't play right, chose wrong systems and played it all wrong I guess.
So I am going back to playing smaller in my comfort zone to not care about these huge bets. Also when I was losing almost every shoe after wards, I was still betting big and bigger as if I was chasing... typically gambler right there, so this is for all those that get really comfortable winning almost every shoe and trying to up your bets, just fyi.
Cheers
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Thanks both for the info. Good advice.
Yes, I actually started at play 6 and it looked like OTB more than s40's so I decided to go there.
By the way for my first 3 bet if I did choose s40, how did you get s40m2 as on 2nd bet it was 0 or count.... but even if i was at s40, i would lose 3 bet and hit 4th bet and change to m2 next time.
Also wouldn't you quit the shoe or when you keep making these 3 bets to stay even, Or do you bulldoze through it... I always think its not too good of a shoe when I keep having to 3 bet as it can easily go to 4 the next time.
Also I don't have the luxury of choosing to play that early. I usually try for it, or wait for the 6-7 hand.
So when you do your play on the 3rd bet it usually works... I have tried that and sometimes I get long runs at the beginning or it gets weird.
Anyhow, thanks again both.
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Lately I have not been winning at all and will probably look at my other charts again. Ive been getting dirty shoes and most of them at mid range around 4-5iar etc and switches. I can't play at hand 2 as there is no history and all shoes change.
It starts off at 2's
B12215414
P15421114
Anyhow, any advice
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I saw this shoe when it was around 20 hands. To me it started out s40, but then otb around hand 5+ or even hand 9+.
B1112113221221
P1111132241
Right when I jumped in at hand 21 it totally switched on me and got me out pretty quick as I already mentioned in a recent post, I also tried going back to s40 after all the 1's up to play 26... again wrong time... I just figure that its always better to play s40 than otb because it beats all 2's
Just unfortunate timing I guess, wondering your thoughts as I went with 2's because momentum was going that way near the end it still would have survived if I still played, better than 1's, I think.
Even with all the 1's I could have played otbm3 and switched otr and run too, but would you ever choose otb at hand 20
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Your right, I just got to learn to 3 and 4 bet more often and take the -8 loss if I get it early.
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This happens quite often where a shoe starts one way, but changes to another and may or may not change back.
I am wondering what your suggestions are.
P111211231331
B112111213
I basically ended there as I was confused. I started out s40... then when it was going towards otb, i switched and then it went to s40... basically killed me even though it shouldn't have. Yes s40 would beat this, but to tie every 3rd bet was a little frustrating when 2s would win.
Anyhow, what are your thoughts. I know I could have been save since s40 beats 2's, but I am always worried about the 3+ when in s40 making 4 bets etc.
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Ellis. I do not know how to net bet yet but I have been doing a lot of 4d learning daily.
One thing I observed was sometimes my disparity is only 3 or 4, for 40 hands. I knew there was a way to bet this I just didnt know how.
Example range 1 to 4.
I know how to bet when its 1 and 4. But didnt know how to bet the others since it can do a full swing from 4 to 1 or 4323212321 etc
Can you please link me and also is there anything other than net betting that would work for this. I mean I could technically do a progression the range is only 4. Can only lose 2-3 max right? But which side to bet etc
Please send me a link
Thanks
An interesting conversation BUT:Guys, this is an EASY shoe. Put your 4D hat on. I saw how to play this instantly.
Your O/T count stays between 0 and -4 with a spread of only 4. A perfect net bet situation. Your 0/R count went to 5 with a spread of 6 - not so good.
Net bet OTB4L vs TB4L with U1D2 progs just as we have been talking on the 4D thread. Since net betting is very forgiving, I started with 1v1 at play 2. I score +14. My highest bet was 3, 3 times. My worst position was +1.
This produces a startlingly high PA of 37%. What more could you ask for? This is perfect Baccarat!
This is precisely why we are discussing the 4D. Do you see that?
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It sounds like you did what I use to do. When I was in the right mode at the beginning... lets say in a show s40, then I would be winning and then see a change in the shoe to TT and go OTB for a section and go back... But Ellis only changes about 10% of the shoes when I was looking to change almost all the time. After awhile it went back and forth too quickly when I changed, it would change back, which is why I assume Ellis stays on one mode as you can battle it through.
But thanks for your opinion, I just did this earlier today with s40... 111122221111. on the first 22, I was s40, then I went to OTB and then after the 222211, I went on s40 again... maybe I got lucky, but thats what I did... doesn't happen all the time... well doesn't happen 90% of the time... haha
My 2 cents,A perfect example of the need to be "fluid" and watch for changing counts.
After several hands you could play s40m1 or F2 just by looking back at the prior results.
But after a reasonable amount of hands won I would have been suspect of a switch in the counts.
The shoe noticably starts moving towards ot4bl so I probably would
have tested this with a unit or two and then followed that new count
on the move. At a certain point I would have been suspecting another count
to take over. Or for a low disparity opportunity to arise. And so on...
This is much easier to do when you are up units. Risking a couple units on an educated "hunch" is a prudent
way to play.
Otherwise sit and watch and bet in your head.
Again, just a couple cents...
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Hey All,
When listening to the 4D seminar, there was a time where Ellis stated, after a 2, it might be better to play a TT run in case it happens.
I don't know what was confirmed or if we set up a system for this yet. Since we know we are coming up with a 3 bet, which side do we go on and is this a variable if it doesn't happen, we don't do it next time?
Anyhow, your help is appreciated so see what we should do.
Thanks
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I usually wait around 7 hands or so.
Around there, you go F, is not so good as it went 3 banks.
You go OTB, its not so hot either.
S40M1 does alright, until the 2421
B141135122
B22124
I quit there as it got all weird.
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Thanks all for replying. I don't know what happened to my reply, but I thanked you before.
I just recently bought the 4D s40m1 and understand it a bit more and see how it does work well for this shoe. I was playing it wrong all a long.
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I would like to know if there is anyway around a 5 iar into singles for otb. You will see in the show I am +7 at hand 17 with 1 unit bets
B214113125
11112511111121
231435
You can see that the 5 iar into a 1111 was pretty killer as I went OTR on hand 21 and then switched back to OTB when it failed, then another 3 bets lost.
Anyhow, it looks easy after the fact as it goes into singles from hands 20-40, then it goes back to otb.
I mean if you want to do an 8 bet, then of course you can still come up, but that wouldn't of happened.
Also if you planned on switching to s40 around early 20s, you then are faced with the 5iar and a lost 3 bet which wouldn't be good as well.
Thanks all
Thanks Ellis, need to refine OR betting game
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
Thanks guys for bringing back TBL. That would have worked as well. Typically there are few 2s in the shoe, but that will be something to think about as well.