bac-cracker
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Posts posted by bac-cracker
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Last night, while I was reading the new rules, I thought there could be different rules for OTB for ST and ZZ runs... Although there are a lot of things that can happen with super streak to super choppy that messes up the numbers, which there probably is something for that later on. Just need to digest everything and have rules and memorize it all... Thanks
Well, you've almost got it.Right, for OTB4L the first ST 3 we go by the OR count. - = M2; + = M3
and 0 OR count we don't bet that play at all. We are better off to save our 3 bet for the next play.
The first ZZ 3: -OR = M3; + OR = M2 (the exact opposite of what we do with ST runs)
Again at 0 OR I think we are bet off to delay our 3 bet.
In the Webinar I will discuss what to do with subsequent 3 bets both ST and ZZ. We can do better than the 3rd bet rule -
which most were having trouble with anyway.
BUT Math says there is a better way than the 3rd bet rule. It just never dawned on me before.
Also I will discuss the 3 bets for S40. I think we can do better than the 3rd bet rule with S40 also.
And I will discuss 3 bets for F.
And a major discussion of Mode 1 for all 3 systems but especially for S40.
Mode 1 turns S40 into a STREAK system which works particularly well in shoes that are not SS -
the same shoes where F often flounders. It is much like having a 4th system that beats a common shoe type we currently lose to.
This Webinar will vastly improve the play of all who attend.
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Ok, just to clarify. The new rule for starting mode only applies to ST runs?
So even if we are starting in M2 based on the new rules, we will stay on M3 for ZZ?
And of course if in M3 based on new rules, we will still be on M3.
Hmmmm, or do you have 2 sets of new rules, one for ST and one for ZZ
So when your first 3bet on ST is (-), you go M2. Then if your first ZZ 3bet is (+), you go M3?
Thanks for your help
OK, you're talking Sands game 6 played OTB4L/SAP.First, we must always look at ZZ and ST 3s separately with OTB4L. With S40 we don't.
We haven't lost a ZZ 3 because none has come up yet until play 19.
The OR count doesn't control ZZ 3 starts - only ST 3 starts.
OTB4L already beats single 1's automatically so we don't need to worry about those.
But only M3 beats a double 1. So we stay M3 on ZZs until we get a triple 1 or longer.
This is because double 1's are so common in OTB4L shoes.
Triple1's or longer usually means S40 which automatically beats all ZZs every bet no matter the length. See that?
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At Hand5, you were in M2 because of the -OR count, got that.
At Hand19, there is another 3 bet that you were in M3 for ZZ, should this have been in M2 since it didn't lose yet?
Next question for you was in this shoe there were many mode changes for streak and I remember you mentioned if this happens, you stay in one mode, would you try to attempt this here.
In this shoe it went M2, M2, M3, M3, M2, M3.
Great play and the SAP really helped out as I get a lot of those 3+.
Sands Shoe #6 scan 0032 -
Question about this shoe.
Hand7 was actually M3 for your first 3 bet and it was a +1 Or count at Hand6, hence why I would play this. Wouldn't this keep me in M3 at Hand10 since it isn't your first 3bet and you stay in that mode until 3bet rule changes your mode?
Other than that you would have got it right for modes, is that correct?
Sands shoe #2 scan0028.pdf(472.8 KB, 5 views) Hit the link at post #9 below.OK this short shoe I managed to screw up too. Everything was fine up to play 10.
I did my OR count from where I started playing. So at play 10 I went M2 according to the -2 OR count.
But I had missed the first 5 plays of the shoe which were B1211.
I should have done my OR count from the beginning of the shoe which would have given me a PLUS OR count at the critical play
putting me in Mode 3 - as I played it here.
So at that point I was really down in the dumps - TWO stupid mistakes.
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Hi Ellis,
It was actually a shoe a long time ago where you were talking about the enhancements back in 10/12. And stated only OTB uses these.
And you stated that you would be at +1 at play 6 vs a -10 which is a huge improvement, just wondering how you got that starting at play 3.
1
2
3 B -1
4 B -2
5 B -3
6 P -4
That was what you were referring to, but with the enhancements you were trying to say we go OTR earlier, but it wasn't the first losing bet iar, it would be the 2nd on the switch, plus on/off?
Let me know if s40 also plays m1, or only OTB like stated a year ago.
Actually I should have said +2 at play 6.Ok, I think the shoe you are referring to started P52223, right? And I said if you started at play 2 with
S40 M2 you would be +1 at play 6. Actually you are at +2 because in M2 you stay OTR for 2 bets.
OK you lose 1,2 on B then win 3,1 on P then win 1 on B putting you at +2.
We usually start S40 in M2.
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Good point, I will be aware of these triggers next time.
Can you tell me how you get a +1 on a starting P51 board on the 6th hand? You mentioned it twice, I just want to see how you do the OTR and switchback or whatnot.
An excellent discussion by all. A couple of pointers:You DON'T want to be going M1 based on any count. That is delutional.
You ONLY go M1 when 4+s outnumber 3s.
The number of losing 2 bets is not as important because you automatically lose 2 bets when you have high 4+s.
On off on off the run is a bonefied enhancement that we teach.
It works best with short runs 4s 5s 6s.
But if you are seeing 7+s (7 or mores) you are best off to stay on runs until you lose.
So, in the shoe posted On Off was a valid approach.
At play 15, 4+s now exceed 3s. That is your signal to go M1. The first opportunity is at play 20.
Peter jumped the gun and got lucky.
BUT if prior shoes were showing high 4+s, that would be a good excuse to jump the gun - a good time to take a reasonable chance.
High 3s can also cause a minus count. But M1 in high 3s is suicidal. You gota have high 4+s for M1 to work.
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Sorry Wendel, I meant +3 in general for the zz runs I get at the local casino.
Ellis, I saw Peter's shoe already so disregard my message on uploading.
One thing for Peter, I don't get how you determined to go to M1 at play 21 for zz... it worked out on 40,41 though.
Anyhow, here are some other types of shoes I am getting that deal with 5ss into long zz... happens often where I get otb to zz or vice versa or just 2 switching systems.
P3222112211111
B2531111141
P91212
Enhancements worked on this shoe.
Another shoe this is comon.
P4111252121
B11111313212111
P1222223
So these are the shoes I get pretty often where there are 2's and then 1's and then some drops.
Hi Killieu,I think I understand that you go OTR after one loss if the OR count is -3 or lower ?
I don't understand where the +3 comes in. Could you please let me know
how the +3 is used and whether I understand the first part correctly
Thanks in advance.
Wendel
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Ok got it, semantics again eh... ha
Got it, I was trying M1 on the run til it ending with -3 +3...
And for the "enhancement" I was going on and off run which made my score go high. Please see if you can post the shoe.
I also went back on my other shoes and the M1 seem to work well with the -3 +3 (not the lost 2 2bets more than we have won) - if i wait for this, the shoe may be over or 1/2 or 1/3 way through?
Anyhow, Some of our runs at the local casino isn't that high but there are bunch of tables that have few 5-6ss and 5-7zz so it would really help with those, we will see if it keeps on helping.
OK, what you are calling "enhancement" we now call Mode 1 in NOR+ jargon. It applies to OTB4L.Mode 1 simply says go OTR after 1 losing bet instead of 2 (M2) or 3 (M3)
I don't talk about Mode 1 much because it rarely comes up. But you always want to check for Mode 1 signals
in runs following runs shoes which is what you have here. Mode 1 has TWO prequalifyers:
1. You must have more 4+s than 3s (which you have)
2. you must have lost Two 2 bets more than you have won. (which you did at play 15)
You get both signals at play 15.
We made one change to M1. We said once you get ON a run, stay OTR until you lose.
So that is the way I played it.
This is because you are always dealing with a streaky shoe with Mode 1 and
because you get on runs so early.
I'll see if I can post the shoe for you ???
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I also tried this in mode 1 and did a tad bit better around 4 units on the upside. M1 just didn't work too well because of the 4 and 5
As for the Enhancement I did, I got all the way up to +22 at hand 38.
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I would like to know if anyone knows how to play this shoe. The OR count keeps going negative, but it seems like I can't play F as the runs aren't long enough and it keeps switching sides.
B342254
B145322111
P2
I tried to play this OTB4LM3 U1D2 and it didn't make it through the shoe well as the 4 and 5's kept coming one after eachother. Top was +7 and then end -7 if played out the whole shoe
Then I tried the enhancement this way. If OR was -3 and I lost one bet, I went OTR once and then went off.
If I won that OFF bet, I go back to OTB
If I lost that OFF bet, I go back OTR again, if lost this OTR, I go back to OTB...
So basically I have to lose 2 bets to go back to OTB for the 2nd option.
Let me know your thoughts
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Hi
Yes, can you let me know why?
This is what I have.
1
2
3 B1 (or -2)
4 B2 (or -3)
5
6
7
The reason I ask is because what I have seen in the enhancement, it was only for a loss 1iar, this is 2 losses, so I didn't know if it still applies?
And why do you switch at play 6?
Do you resume OTB after the win at 6 or still go on off?
I'm not sure at this point how the shoe was played but if you start at play 2 with S40M2 your score at play 6 is +1. -
I want to know we just did the OR counts and had that number at the end of the shoe, would we know if we would have won or not in s40 or otb?
Example, lets say it was a +5 or -7, if we play systematically would you know if you came out ahead without charting the whole shoe in both scenarios.
I just wanted to know if there was a shortcut since my partner sends me pictures and I can just do the OR in my head.
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Thanks for the info... Already been evaluating after a few losses, but I think that is too early.
I need to be more confident and fearless of those 3 and 4 and even 5 bets which I haven't done.
I free hand and see if something else comes up and go with it if there is a change in the shoe.
Many, many posts on this forum talk about picking a bet selection method after a few hands...just as many posts talking about waiting/ entering mid shoe/ or switching " systems" after a few losses
Killeu-
YOU may get this, but for all of us haven't played thousands of games, my advice is simple.
1) No matter WHERE you choose to start your shoe play, DO NOT be afraid to " re-assess" if first few hands do not go your way and you are approaching / at your stop limit!! ( sit out, take a bathroom brake! ( misspelled intentionally) , call a friend, whatever)
2) Never forget lesson # 1, and do not be ashamed to walk away, take another break, put on the brakes, etc... Even you decide to come back later same shoe, it's all good
3) Nobody cares if you win......................................N.O.B.O.D.Y. ( in point of fact, even those Dealers " pretending" they want you to win, unless you are tipping them heavily, they are envious of your ability to have so much $$ at your disposal, and " secretly" they relish telling you " I told you so" CAN YOU BLAME THEM ????? You, sitting on the other side of the table, dealing the cards, would you REALLY, REALLY be so happy to see someone rake in the dough, while they work for low wages, wear their uniforms, have to deal with drunken-and-disorderly a-hole guests, etc, etc.????
NOT.
Except you...
YES, mind your manners, treat them as equals, make your comments and tips geared towards getting them on your side.. And you will be Welcomed Back, many times over....
NO, you do NOT owe them anything, except to respect them as human beings doing their jobs..
And watch, you start having a positive attitude about things, you Will Win more, than you find negative in everything " happens to you"
REMINDER, at This Is Not BlackJack!,
Once shuffled, the shoe " outcome" is predetermined! Nobody, Nobody, Nobody but you is responsible for figuring it out!
WHAT A BEAUTIFUL THING!!!!,
( and they let me keep track???)
YOW- ZAH!!!!
Best of luck to you, and all...
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I read information from a thread "nor trip reports 10-12 couple shoes" but it also ended as there probably was a new post somewhere.
Anyhow, one of the shoes was this and I wanted to see how you came about hand 6 being +1.
P522232121
P11311321214
B214121131
-3 OR count comes at play 4, but per the instructions, it states for a loss 1iar then you go down.
But how did you win the bet at play 7 if you are betting down on SS. I am assuming you go on and off after you hit so play 6 was off and you hit and then 7 would be on with a loss, then what would 8 be, back to otb?
Wouldn't you need to lose 2 in a row to go back to OTB? Reason being for long zz runs you would be straight down and then you lose 1 and win 2 bets. Then I assume you lose 2 in a row down and go back to OTB?
Did any body save one of my mode explanation posts?Did I do any mode explanation posts? Seems like I must have.
Or do we need a new one?
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I would like to know if I could bring a friend there, he plays NOR with me. But he will not play at the tables.
Also, what are the best flights from SNA or LAX in California direct to PA as I only see expensive nonstop or stops that take forever to get there.
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Does anyone know of we still are practicing or using Enhanced OTB and how it has been doing?
I can see how it can improve the shoes a lot for runs in zz in ss, but need to completely understand it... I saw a thread back in late 2012, but didn't get much out of it.
Lets say you are OTB at -3 and its Streaky, you would bet on the losing side down, but once you win do you switch back to regular OTB again.
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Well yes, I only played OTB for a few hands and switched...
But I started early as the other shoes were OTB and I was going by table history to start early... haha
I just don't want to be stuck with OTBM3 U1D2 and go agressive when this happens and keep chasing with 5 or 6 bets before I stop...
The reason why I showed this shoe is that one of the shoes you played awhile back OTBM3 U1D2 started out 112113 and this was a little similar, otb didn't start too well then came back strong +21
Ha, right off the bat! What you need to Know is OTB4L HATES triple 1's regardless of mode. The only thing worse is atriple 1 followed by a 3+!
More than anything else S40 loves 1's. Yours aren't just above normal (5 per column). They are TWICE normal.
This shoe is S40 U1D1M2 right from the get go. It scores an incredible +46 from play 2 with a highest bet of 5.
Just stay in mode 3 because the shoe is so incredibly choppy and
Mode 3 is your Chop Mode!
+46 in only 60 plays is phenominal!
A little more experience and you would see this right off the bat!
This is an U1D1M2 Exploit shoe right from the start.
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I actually saw a table that was OTB all night and so I decided to go play OTB4LM3 U1D2 on the 6th play. It wasn't doing so well, just wondering when you would recommend switching systems as OTB wasn't doing well at all. Can OTB even work for this or its one of the shoes that OTB dies.
P11131112111411
P11133111521
B11121231121112
By the way, I did switch to s40, but just wondering if OTB can work on this as OTB is for most shoes and usually an overlap.
Thanks for your help
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Well for the first 4, you would hit the first 2 and then lose 2 and have your 3rd bet. If you are in m2 you would lose your 3rd bet unless your doing something else?
Anyhow, let me know if I am missing something.
I tend to slow down and yes when you are losing your emotions get to you.
I actually played this shoe in and out and hit +17, but I was playing s40 first m2, then switched to F in and out (or some one and some off)... guess I got lucky.
For to 4s I would probably hit 2 out of four, and for the 6s I would probably hit 3 to 4 out of 6... I flat betted 1 when I reached very close to -8 and then when I was nearly out of the waters I continued with the U1D2 progression again... You do feel the emotions when you are losing but you learn to manage it... If something is not working keep on figuring out what may have gone wrong... Could be the way we implemented the system, our deciding making processes may need refining and etc... I've had some of these so far but getting better at it... -
Yes, I definitely never make a 2 bet unless I win a flat bet. Sometimes the next loss I still don't go up to a 2 bet until I get momentum.
And I usually start off around hand 5-7 to see which system to play. I don't really see table shoe history being the same or similar at all so can never start at hand 2, its failed too many times to do that so I rather just be safe. Yes I miss out on some good bets, but better to play safe.
Question Peter: If you did m2, you would have lost the first 2, 3 bets with the 4iar... 4players, 4bankers, are you sure you would do better that way?
Hint:1. never make a 2 unit bet until you've won your first 1 unit flat bet
2. find a good place to start the system (I started a bit too early and ignored Point 1. in error and ended up with Score of 5 at the end - my error)
3. I became a bit more conservative in my betting when I was nearing the loss limit of -8, but held on and went back up to score of five...
4. You have 50/50 chance of winning so the aim is to win more 'hits' than you 'lose' so that means... you're not going to catch? all the wins of a 4 and 6 run...
5. I think because there are 2s, Mode 3 is used... and OTB4L like twos... if I had used Mode 2 I think I would have done better... i.e. OTB4L Mode 2-1 without changing Mode or System along the way...
The thing is to practice, review, ask questions, read the manual/forum, refine your practice and practice... and be systematic...
Hope this helps...
Peter
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Ok, thanks for the info.
May I ask how come there were no mode changes. For me, if I were to use otb, I would start m3.
Then then 4 players, I would have changed to m2, then after that, I don't know what to do as there are 4 and a 6.
The beginning with OTB would have got me pretty confused as usually with a big hit at the beginning. Need your help on that.
F shoes are usually only found at F tables (tables that have been streaky for several shoes).Early runs are always a nusiance and often spell departure. They also screw up your OR count. I often ignore them altogether.
This shoe has no SS so is therefore not a great F candidate.
I note that straight OTB4LM3, U1D2, ignoring the run altogether, scores a pretty easy +12.
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Ok, I guess I will be careful with F, or if the shoe does start F, then I should look for a change and not stay in F the whole shoe.
The example I showed was a portion of the shoe, it actually started out F. I guess I'll write out the whole shoe next time. Here is another example in F2. You can see that I notice there is always a time in my F that I could lose all the hands in the 2131 going from F2 to F3. That was my question how to get around this when I was clearly in an F shoe. Is it inevitable? After I lose the 3rd bet, I lay off, but still chart it to see what happens and it happens quite often where the mode changes 6 bets in a row.
P174413
P3621314
P2121
kilieu! NOTHING "always happens" in Baccarat! You can't play this game or any other casino game with a negative attitude.There is a type of player I can point to in any casino that is out to unconsciously prove he can't win.
I have watched them and even played with them thousands of times. They represent about a 5th of all casino goers.
They have an almost visible black cloud over their head. They have a perfect knack for doing the wrong thing at the
wrong time and seem to be virtually proud of it. They have that identifiable body language and are always whining.
They will be down 14 units in the very same shoe I'm up 14 units.
System F is by far the system we play the least. We NEVER start a shoe with F! - unless we already know we are at a
very streaky table preferably also strong sided and we know that card color is very streaky or we are starting mid shoe
in a very streaky shoe. In my last two Vegas trips, 40 shoes worth, I never played F even once because I never saw an
F shoe at any time of day in any casino. They are decidedly very rare.
The pattern you mention is decidedly NOT an F pattern. It is not streaky or strong sided and would be very unlikely
to show up in any truly F shoe, especially starting on the weak side. VERY unlikely!
That is an OTB4L pattern and will most likely be found in an OTB4L shoe.
You are relatively new. Learn S40 and OTB4L FIRST because that is what you will be playing the MOST.
It doesn't matter whether you start M2 or M3 because the 3rd bet rule will put you in the right mode soon
enough IF you learned the 3rd bet rule in your S40 and OTB4L studies.
I'm merely pointing out that in a very strong sided shoe, a shoe where we WOULD likely be playing F, we
get a lot of sporadic 1's and sporadic 2s.
They are, in fact, what makes a shoe SS and F.
M3 beats BOTH while M2 only beats 1's. Get it?
90% of the players in casinos - all they do is complain. There is no hope for them.
YOU are there to win!
The shoe is what the shoe is.
Play the right system the right way and your complaints will vanish.
Understand?
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Well Ellis,
I actually meant, you once stated start F2, but recently I see start F3. So which is it, or do we just go with history.
So basically my question was, if I did go with history, it usually is one after the other... f2 first then f3 the next so even if I waited for history it would be wrong... so what do I do them, it seems to always happen.
Then there usually is always a point where you are always wrong no matter what mode you are in, you lose 6 plays in a row its around 80%+ that I have seen this.
I don't always play all 6 bets since I watch out for it, but it seems to always happen.
I need help on what we should start with and how to deal with the plays that can kill ya.
Example. F3... im giving a portion of the shoe where I have issues.
411 213
After the 411, you lose 6 bets in a row going from f2, then otr, then back, and to f3 for 3 bets.
I don't quite understand how you determine mode 2 or mode 3 for F.I noticed for a lot of F shoes that I played in using m2... quite often there is a point or maybe two points in the shoe where you can lose a ton of bets in a row.
Example would be in m2, lose 2, switch to other side, lose that and switch back and lose another 3 hands because you may be in m3 now.
I also looked at other shoes and the same thing happened when starting with m3 where there is a point where you lose a lot of bets in a row because the shoe does the exact opposite of what we want.
For m3, it would be lose 3 bets, then i switch lose one, and switch back and i lose 2 again and switch since in m2.... it happens around 20-40 hands and then i stop and just chart.
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I don't quite understand how you determine mode 2 or mode 3 for F.
I noticed for a lot of F shoes that I played in using m2... quite often there is a point or maybe two points in the shoe where you can lose a ton of bets in a row.
Example would be in m2, lose 2, switch to other side, lose that and switch back and lose another 3 hands because you may be in m3 now.
I also looked at other shoes and the same thing happened when starting with m3 where there is a point where you lose a lot of bets in a row because the shoe does the exact opposite of what we want.
For m3, it would be lose 3 bets, then i switch lose one, and switch back and i lose 2 again and switch since in m2.... it happens around 20-40 hands and then i stop and just chart.
Yes, in all 3 NOR systems modes are played exactly the same way:Mode 2 means go OTR after 2 losing bets and stay OTR for 2 bets if you win the first OTR bet until staying OTR for 2 bets proves wrong.
Recognize that in all 3 Nor systems, the only way to lose 2 bets in a row is against a run. Now the question is, do we go OTR (Mode 2) or do we bet against the run one more time (Mode 3)???
Mode 3 means go OTR after 3 losing bets but stay OTR for only ONE bet because you got on the run so late. But again if staying OTR for only 1 bet proves wrong it is best for the next run to stay OTR until you lose.
Now, which mode to be in is controlled by the 3rd bet rule which simply says if you lose your 3rd bet whether it be OTR (Mode 2) or ATR (Against the run) (Mode 3) you are in the WRONG mode nomatter which mode you were in so change modes for the next run.
However later in the shoe, once we have attempted several OTR bets, we go with which ever way won the 3rd bet the most times.
Now, sometimes our 3rd bet rule is wrong every time. In S40 this happens when 3s are exactly interlaced with 4+s. In that rare case we pick the mode that won the most and simply stay in that mode no matter what.
Another guideline is that Mode 2 is best for streaky shoes (long runs) and Mode 3 is best for chop. (short runs)
All of these Mode rules are simply so you don't have to go back and count runs. But they amount to the same thing as counting 3s (Mode 3) vs 4 or mores (Mode 2) in S40 and:
4s (Mode 3) vs 5 or mores (Mode 2) in OTB4L.
We think the 3rd bet rule is easier and it gives you the exact same result. The 3rd bet rule automates SAP (counting runs by length) but a handful of players prefer to use SAP since they understand it. But for most of us the 3rd bet rule is simplest. You either won your 3rd bet (right mode) or you lost it (wrong mode)
Now, we say "3rd bet" rather than "3 bet" because once you graduate from NOR's 123 4 prog (where all winning bets go back to 1) up to NOR+'s U1D2 betting, (You go down 2 after a winning bet) your 3rd bet is not always a 3 bet.
Yes, Mode rules seem very "tangled" the first time or two BUT, once you see HOW they work and more importantly WHY they work and have a few shoes under your belt, Modes will become automatic for you and all of this initial confusion will seem funny because Modes are really simple once you get the hang of our simplified rules. 3rd bets decide EVERYTHING and there are only 2 things that can happen - you either win them (stay in same mode) or lose them (change modes) and the 3rd bet rule is right no matter which side you bet it on. A little practice goes a long way.
The only thing I didn't cover is which mode to start with???
If you are starting mid shoe, which all new students SHOULD be doing, You can tell the correct mode from the shoe history.
But as you get better, especially after learning to use prior shoe history, You find yourself starting ealier and earlier - even before we have 3rd bet history. It is somewhat arbitrary but experience has taught us to start OTB4L in mode 3 and S40 in mode 2 until the shoe proves otherwise.
F strong side, Starting in Mode 3 is right most often.
F because of long straight runs on BOTH sides, Mode 2 is right most often.
But here's the thing: right now you are not yet seeing the overall picture. Once you do, The whole Mode thing becomes very obvious.
todays bacarrat @ sands worth every penny
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
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I won't be able to make the 8am in my time. I just verify if I sign up I will be able to watch the video anytime I like (download it, or watch via your site or private youtube?)