ChiefAurelius

Thanks mate. Happy new year to all. Chief

Hey mate, Here we go. Brad01 scorecard 15Jan15.PDF Apologies, it's messy (sorry I rushed due to time committments); it's not MDB; and clearly in the middle, I got a little lucky. Cheers Chief

Hi MVS, Can I get your take on what the effect is of two deck swapping? Do they deal hand for hand alternately, or is after say 10 hands? I don't deal with BetPhoenix, but I've noted other online operators will 'palm' the first card, ie deal the first card of the hand straight to discard pile. From my observations so far, it doesn't seem to have any effect (as a result of them doing it on every hand?). Interested to hear your thoughts... Cheers Chief

Hi Fatherfred! Happy New Year to you and to all of my dear compadres at BTC! My apologies for not replying to this sooner. University assignments just take me out of the picture some times. I've attached my take on your shoe. Fatherfred Scorecard 18Dec14.PDF Let me walk you through it... First, I still suck at MDB+, so until I get better at it, I'm sticking with the arrows I currently have in my quiver. As you said, it's regular cards (as are many live casino online options ;-) ) so I presume that it will be NOR+ or O/T. Secondly, I've been paper trading a lot of online shoes lately. A (marginally) older and much wiser head on this forum, told me how many shoes he has paper traded to hone his skills. I've done a lot (approx. 300) but he's done about ten times mine. Don't get me wrong, I'm throwing down real cash, but on the tightrope between making money and learning, I still have a learning lean (but it's changing!). Third, as MVS proposed earlier in this thread, I'm tracking O/T. WITH ONE REFINEMENT. As you can see on the scorecard, column 3 is reserved for a double gauge. On top is the OR count (I love my OR count!). On the bottom is the OT count. Usually one of them is leading the way. If both of them are screaming at you, go all in. Sometimes however, they contradict. I still have not mastered Net Betting yet, so maybe the leaders in this area can add something here, but a conflict between the two is, to me, a signal to be cautious. Four, the O/T system says if you see 2iar, it's time to go OTB4L. I don't trust the Terrible Twos that much, so I usually wait until there are two in a pattern (ie PPBB or PPBPP...) until I am prepared to back it. I'm pretty sure that this was one of Way2fast's gems of genius. Keeping in mind that if you decide to bet a negative progression as I did on this one, that it might be just as good for you if the shoe doesn't present the OTB4L cleanly (in this example it led to a continuation of TB4L which was profitable) - sometimes, but not always. By that I mean, look at hands 12-13. The negative progression saved my ass, but still cost me money (thus higher risk). Five, you'll note that at hand 20 I still did not switch to OTB4L. To be honest that could have gone either way. I chose not to switch based on the gauge in column 3. Whilst the OR had fluctuated backwards and forwards across a small band (usually OTB4L) from the start, the bottom indicator (OT) was showing TB4L, and was clearly contrary to switching to OTB4L. That's why I hung in there a while longer with TB4L, and did the same at play 36 BUT reversed at play 57 as the OT count had gone from -8 up to -4 (heading in the right direction). Also, the top count (OR) had started to head up into S40 territory and I thought the combination of the two were a good signal). Six, I did miss the last play (which I would have failed anyway) to bring my total to +14. Finally (yes, I'm bringing this puppy in to land!), you'll see at play 36 I cut the progression. I agree with MVS that you need to cut the loss at some point. If your selections are not coming in, it's wandered to close to random to assist you or you're just not picking it. The reason this progression was cut however, as opposed to the others which continued on to successful 4 bets, was that the indicators were telling me a different story. I had to wait to see what the gauge was telling me. Prior to this, the gauge was backing me (still no guarantee of success, but it's the bias we're after isn't it?). I agree Fatherfred. There are a lot of these shoes like this out there in online land. There was one particular casino that was spitting out shoes like this 19 out of 20 times. I paper traded them for weeks and weeks. When I registered they didn't take my jurisdiction!!!! So I called it a day, and went looking for another online provider of live hands. One thing about online that is really important though: Imagine the amount of work that Ellis did constructing his mental model of Bacc play. That involved countless visits, composed of countless hours in front of shoes that might have been good, bad or ugly. You can do the same quantum of work from your home PC. That's an invaluable resource that we have that hasn't existed before. Also, considering that online still makes its commission off all of your B bets, to me that represents a significant threat to bricks and mortar casinos. Those suckers are not cheap to run. Lucky there's a lot of suckers to keep those suckers fed! Best wishes to all for 2015 Chief PS the 'M' of column 4 stands for Mode. I leave my notes/theorising in this column to track my rationale for betting upon later review.

Thanks MVS! You're a scholar and a gentleperson (can't resist having a dig at the politically correct crowd!). I'll digest your thoughts and come back to you. Thanks particularly for keeping the esprit de corps alive! Cheers Chief

C'mon guys. The system tells me that 53 members in this private forum have read this post, did that shoe really beat you all? Maybe I'm not doing as poorly as I thought! Best of luck Chief

Hi All, Funny we don't have a dedicated thread just for checking shoes. Might be nice to keep it all in one location..? Anyway, here's one I was looking for some guidance on how to play better. I only paper traded it but got creamed. Any thoughts to show me the error of my ways? It was an online casino. Hand shuffle. No info on shuffle time or previous shoe, but I did notice that at this casino a heap of picture cards come out in clumps (at the one time). P 311211132212 B 235122122 P 12115211114 P 11112162 Also, one quick clarification, if you're betting U1D2M2 and the OR count is positive, which one wins? That is, should we be in Mode 3 or Mode 2 (for U1D2M2)? Thanks all. Good luck Chief

Hi Ellis and my fellow Casino Conquerors, Can I just clarify - you know how I get a mental block when it comes to modes for some stupid reason - if the rule is, as stated above, OR count 0 or Plus = Mode 3 and OR Count Minus = Mode 2, how does Mode 1/TB4L fit into the mix? Just trying to get it straight in my head. Thanks again, and if anyone can add to the conversation, I'd really appreciate it as I seem to struggle with this one simple aspect. Cheers Chief PS Loved the story about the Claridge Ellis! Keep 'em comin! Along those lines can I ask you about your best day at a casino, and also your worst day? What did you learn from each? To be honest, I'd like to start a thread called 'Fireside Conversations with Ellis' that contains your experiences and memories. Very instructive for those of us that learn contextually... and always appreciate a damn good yarn! (particularly if it's at the casino's expense!!)

Hi Ellis and my fellow Casino Conquerors, Can I just clarify - you know how I get a mental block when it comes to modes for some stupid reason - if the rule is, as stated above, OR count 0 or Plus = Mode 3 and OR Count Minus = Mode 2, how does Mode 1/TB4L fit into the mix? Just trying to get it straight in my head. Thanks again, and if anyone can add to the conversation, I'd really appreciate it as I seem to struggle with this one simple aspect. Cheers Chief PS Loved the story about the Claridge Ellis! Keep 'em comin! Along those lines can I ask you about your best day at a casino, and also your worst day? What did you learn from each? To be honest, I'd like to start a thread called 'Fireside Conversations with Ellis' that contains your experiences and memories. Very instructive for those of us that learn contextually... and always appreciate a damn good yarn! (particularly if it's at the casino's expense!!)

Fair go Topstep1, that's a fairly cynical and jaded statement. There's nothing like this forum. Personal instruction from the best guy in marketing costs you around $5000 an hour. Personal instruction from Ellis on this forum and MDB is chicken feed. I can understand a new member being a bit bewildered - there's a heap of information to learn if you want to get good at this. But pretending that there's no support if you don't convert (which to me is simply a smart thing to do once you have gotten your head around the basics) is disingenuous and just plain not true. Just go to the summary board for this area alone and - let alone the constant contributions from Ellis - look at the contributions from great players such as way2fast, gman, ozscouser, MVS, kachatz1 to name only a few (and I can name many more that have certainly helped me to grow and learn) and you can see the immense benefit that is at your fingertips here and unrivalled in the bacc community. Here's an example: I wanted to understand a tote board term that I hadn't encountered before that I saw at my casino. I googled the term and found another bacc forum that spent five pages explaining the importance of how you 'squeeze the cards'!!!! Could you imagine the devestation wrought by casino friendly sites that propagate a culture and tradition of how to finesse an element of the game that HAS NO BEARING! Mceight8 send me a PM and I'll do my best to help with some shoes if that's presenting a difficulty for you. We're all here to help. Just remember that this is HARD WORK and the harder YOU work the luckier you'll become. Chief

Wow Ellis. You de Man and Master! I learnt more out of your reply than pages of study of the manual and forum. I think I'm still getting tripped up on having too much going through my head when I sit down at the table. Your triage approach made a ton of sense and, to be honest, I do better with hard rules then interpretation, rather than interpreting the shoe into the rules. The clarity you provided in your post was what I was lacking and desperately in need of. I am much encouraged by the no-nonsense approach that you took to the tables. If Steve can get the monthly forum shoe analysis going I think that it will provide feedback like this on a regular basis. Great work Ellis Chief

Hi All and Thanks again for the help, These are the shoes (below). In the interest of the above conversation, I thought I'd post all five of the shoes to help potentially illuminate the bias of the shoe. Ok. The shoes are from a smaller casino that I infrequently visit. When I say small, they only have one bacc table (so unfortunately, you can't avail yourself of a better table as all the rest of the tables are BJ). But, they do handshuffle. I believe that the casino starts by loading a preshuffled deck and from there, hand shuffles at the end of each shoe as these are face up games, not touch where the cards are disposed of. I timed the shuffles and they all seem to take between 7 and 10 minutes. This casino is incredibly slow. One of the shoes took over an hour and a half to play out It's an eight deck shoe. Shoe # 1 (which I came in late on, but picked up a couple of units at the end. The log on the tote board said that this was shoe number 3 since the table opened) B 41411211221 B 51122122211 P 11123221 Shoe #2 P 51122111321 B 211221111161 B 2211121312211 P 2122 Shoe # 3 (This is the one I got crunched on) P 15121112132 B 52212314 P 212421152 B 3121 Shoe #4 (I came in very late on this shoe (and they seemed to have rocketed through this one compared to the others I sat) as I was so annoyed with Shoe # 3 I went off to a different part of the casino, rewrote it and replayed it. I found a couple of simple errors, but still struggled to beat the shoe) P 15211113122 P 121132212113 B 213315212 P 2151 (My confidence had taken a hit on shoe #3 and I ended up, after entering late on this one, losing three units, but then making them back to zero out on this one) Shoe # 5 B 2112123212111 B 1111111123111211 B 132121312112 P 2 I did much better on the last one, but then learnt a very expensive lesson about not quitting when you're tired and your concentration is getting really short (it was about 1.30am by this stage - I wasn't kidding when I said they take forever dealing these shoes). Anyway, won't be making that mistake a second time. So there you go team. I'd appreciate your expert advice. As I mentioned, shoe #3 decimated the table. There were 12 people playing but by the lasst third of the shoe it was down to just me and one other, and she had been doing really well all night until that shoe wiped her out. Thanks again Chief PS Ellis, hope you're feeling better.

Thanks Steve. I will send through (hopefully later today). You've got it in one when you said how it 'morphed'. I'll point out when I send through later. Cheers Chief

Hi Steve, I played on Saturday night and was resoundedly beaten by a shoe that murdered everyone else at the table. I will post it, I just don't have it with me at the moment, but it defied every system. No one could get over the top of it. Do you think that this could be one of those 'crazy shoes' that you're referring to? Thanks Chief

Hi Stephen, I think that Spec is just frustrated. He did say that he has attended a large amount of the seminars and Vegas trips and was seeking something more advanced. That seems to mean that he's not randomly or arbitrarily expressing frustration. It's simply the case that having been a loyal customer and supporter (according to his statements) he feels the need for something else to advance us all in our baccarat quest. We've all seen plenty uninformed and disgruntled members or guests that clearly have not done the work, the reading or the practice, throwing around barbed insults that are disrespectful and malicious. I'm sure that in review he wouldn't intend to disrespect Ellis and the monumental effort that Ellis puts in to this forum and us as players. (And might I add by way of the above, that (Ellis this is to you) there is certainly not enough that we can do to thank you for the hours and hours that you put into our development. I know that there are a million other things that you could be doing but am eternally grateful that you spend many of your days listening to our frustrations and reviewing how some nasty casino handed our hat to us. Thanks a million Big E.) To be honest I think Spec was simply stating that he wanted to understand more of the mental framework of where Ellis' thought processes were coming from. I'm sure that we all can understand that the limited nature of written posts do sometimes lead words to not fully portray our feelings and thoughts. It's not the same as sitting around the coffee table where someone's gestures and tone of voice can easily illustrate the difference between frustration, the feeling of being misunderstood, and anger/contempt. I think that we all need to appreciate that intent can be misinterpreted in any forum. It's a limitation that comes with the method of communication. Having said that, I think that you, Stephen, have added a significant corollary concept to this debate. Having a 'Live Play' session every few weeks is a collossal idea. I think that that is a significant step forward and a way to further refine the play of the advanced players on the forum. Excellent idea. That alone could take this forum to the next level. Chief