ChiefAurelius

Thanks mate. Happy new year to all. Chief

Hey mate, Here we go. Brad01 scorecard 15Jan15.PDF Apologies, it's messy (sorry I rushed due to time committments); it's not MDB; and clearly in the middle, I got a little lucky. Cheers Chief

Hi MVS, Can I get your take on what the effect is of two deck swapping? Do they deal hand for hand alternately, or is after say 10 hands? I don't deal with BetPhoenix, but I've noted other online operators will 'palm' the first card, ie deal the first card of the hand straight to discard pile. From my observations so far, it doesn't seem to have any effect (as a result of them doing it on every hand?). Interested to hear your thoughts... Cheers Chief

Hi Fatherfred! Happy New Year to you and to all of my dear compadres at BTC! My apologies for not replying to this sooner. University assignments just take me out of the picture some times. I've attached my take on your shoe. Fatherfred Scorecard 18Dec14.PDF Let me walk you through it... First, I still suck at MDB+, so until I get better at it, I'm sticking with the arrows I currently have in my quiver. As you said, it's regular cards (as are many live casino online options ;-) ) so I presume that it will be NOR+ or O/T. Secondly, I've been paper trading a lot of online shoes lately. A (marginally) older and much wiser head on this forum, told me how many shoes he has paper traded to hone his skills. I've done a lot (approx. 300) but he's done about ten times mine. Don't get me wrong, I'm throwing down real cash, but on the tightrope between making money and learning, I still have a learning lean (but it's changing!). Third, as MVS proposed earlier in this thread, I'm tracking O/T. WITH ONE REFINEMENT. As you can see on the scorecard, column 3 is reserved for a double gauge. On top is the OR count (I love my OR count!). On the bottom is the OT count. Usually one of them is leading the way. If both of them are screaming at you, go all in. Sometimes however, they contradict. I still have not mastered Net Betting yet, so maybe the leaders in this area can add something here, but a conflict between the two is, to me, a signal to be cautious. Four, the O/T system says if you see 2iar, it's time to go OTB4L. I don't trust the Terrible Twos that much, so I usually wait until there are two in a pattern (ie PPBB or PPBPP...) until I am prepared to back it. I'm pretty sure that this was one of Way2fast's gems of genius. Keeping in mind that if you decide to bet a negative progression as I did on this one, that it might be just as good for you if the shoe doesn't present the OTB4L cleanly (in this example it led to a continuation of TB4L which was profitable) - sometimes, but not always. By that I mean, look at hands 12-13. The negative progression saved my ass, but still cost me money (thus higher risk). Five, you'll note that at hand 20 I still did not switch to OTB4L. To be honest that could have gone either way. I chose not to switch based on the gauge in column 3. Whilst the OR had fluctuated backwards and forwards across a small band (usually OTB4L) from the start, the bottom indicator (OT) was showing TB4L, and was clearly contrary to switching to OTB4L. That's why I hung in there a while longer with TB4L, and did the same at play 36 BUT reversed at play 57 as the OT count had gone from -8 up to -4 (heading in the right direction). Also, the top count (OR) had started to head up into S40 territory and I thought the combination of the two were a good signal). Six, I did miss the last play (which I would have failed anyway) to bring my total to +14. Finally (yes, I'm bringing this puppy in to land!), you'll see at play 36 I cut the progression. I agree with MVS that you need to cut the loss at some point. If your selections are not coming in, it's wandered to close to random to assist you or you're just not picking it. The reason this progression was cut however, as opposed to the others which continued on to successful 4 bets, was that the indicators were telling me a different story. I had to wait to see what the gauge was telling me. Prior to this, the gauge was backing me (still no guarantee of success, but it's the bias we're after isn't it?). I agree Fatherfred. There are a lot of these shoes like this out there in online land. There was one particular casino that was spitting out shoes like this 19 out of 20 times. I paper traded them for weeks and weeks. When I registered they didn't take my jurisdiction!!!! So I called it a day, and went looking for another online provider of live hands. One thing about online that is really important though: Imagine the amount of work that Ellis did constructing his mental model of Bacc play. That involved countless visits, composed of countless hours in front of shoes that might have been good, bad or ugly. You can do the same quantum of work from your home PC. That's an invaluable resource that we have that hasn't existed before. Also, considering that online still makes its commission off all of your B bets, to me that represents a significant threat to bricks and mortar casinos. Those suckers are not cheap to run. Lucky there's a lot of suckers to keep those suckers fed! Best wishes to all for 2015 Chief PS the 'M' of column 4 stands for Mode. I leave my notes/theorising in this column to track my rationale for betting upon later review.

Thanks MVS! You're a scholar and a gentleperson (can't resist having a dig at the politically correct crowd!). I'll digest your thoughts and come back to you. Thanks particularly for keeping the esprit de corps alive! Cheers Chief

C'mon guys. The system tells me that 53 members in this private forum have read this post, did that shoe really beat you all? Maybe I'm not doing as poorly as I thought! Best of luck Chief

Hi All, Funny we don't have a dedicated thread just for checking shoes. Might be nice to keep it all in one location..? Anyway, here's one I was looking for some guidance on how to play better. I only paper traded it but got creamed. Any thoughts to show me the error of my ways? It was an online casino. Hand shuffle. No info on shuffle time or previous shoe, but I did notice that at this casino a heap of picture cards come out in clumps (at the one time). P 311211132212 B 235122122 P 12115211114 P 11112162 Also, one quick clarification, if you're betting U1D2M2 and the OR count is positive, which one wins? That is, should we be in Mode 3 or Mode 2 (for U1D2M2)? Thanks all. Good luck Chief

Hi Ellis and my fellow Casino Conquerors, Can I just clarify - you know how I get a mental block when it comes to modes for some stupid reason - if the rule is, as stated above, OR count 0 or Plus = Mode 3 and OR Count Minus = Mode 2, how does Mode 1/TB4L fit into the mix? Just trying to get it straight in my head. Thanks again, and if anyone can add to the conversation, I'd really appreciate it as I seem to struggle with this one simple aspect. Cheers Chief PS Loved the story about the Claridge Ellis! Keep 'em comin! Along those lines can I ask you about your best day at a casino, and also your worst day? What did you learn from each? To be honest, I'd like to start a thread called 'Fireside Conversations with Ellis' that contains your experiences and memories. Very instructive for those of us that learn contextually... and always appreciate a damn good yarn! (particularly if it's at the casino's expense!!)

Hi Ellis and my fellow Casino Conquerors, Can I just clarify - you know how I get a mental block when it comes to modes for some stupid reason - if the rule is, as stated above, OR count 0 or Plus = Mode 3 and OR Count Minus = Mode 2, how does Mode 1/TB4L fit into the mix? Just trying to get it straight in my head. Thanks again, and if anyone can add to the conversation, I'd really appreciate it as I seem to struggle with this one simple aspect. Cheers Chief PS Loved the story about the Claridge Ellis! Keep 'em comin! Along those lines can I ask you about your best day at a casino, and also your worst day? What did you learn from each? To be honest, I'd like to start a thread called 'Fireside Conversations with Ellis' that contains your experiences and memories. Very instructive for those of us that learn contextually... and always appreciate a damn good yarn! (particularly if it's at the casino's expense!!)

Fair go Topstep1, that's a fairly cynical and jaded statement. There's nothing like this forum. Personal instruction from the best guy in marketing costs you around $5000 an hour. Personal instruction from Ellis on this forum and MDB is chicken feed. I can understand a new member being a bit bewildered - there's a heap of information to learn if you want to get good at this. But pretending that there's no support if you don't convert (which to me is simply a smart thing to do once you have gotten your head around the basics) is disingenuous and just plain not true. Just go to the summary board for this area alone and - let alone the constant contributions from Ellis - look at the contributions from great players such as way2fast, gman, ozscouser, MVS, kachatz1 to name only a few (and I can name many more that have certainly helped me to grow and learn) and you can see the immense benefit that is at your fingertips here and unrivalled in the bacc community. Here's an example: I wanted to understand a tote board term that I hadn't encountered before that I saw at my casino. I googled the term and found another bacc forum that spent five pages explaining the importance of how you 'squeeze the cards'!!!! Could you imagine the devestation wrought by casino friendly sites that propagate a culture and tradition of how to finesse an element of the game that HAS NO BEARING! Mceight8 send me a PM and I'll do my best to help with some shoes if that's presenting a difficulty for you. We're all here to help. Just remember that this is HARD WORK and the harder YOU work the luckier you'll become. Chief

Wow Ellis. You de Man and Master! I learnt more out of your reply than pages of study of the manual and forum. I think I'm still getting tripped up on having too much going through my head when I sit down at the table. Your triage approach made a ton of sense and, to be honest, I do better with hard rules then interpretation, rather than interpreting the shoe into the rules. The clarity you provided in your post was what I was lacking and desperately in need of. I am much encouraged by the no-nonsense approach that you took to the tables. If Steve can get the monthly forum shoe analysis going I think that it will provide feedback like this on a regular basis. Great work Ellis Chief

Hi All and Thanks again for the help, These are the shoes (below). In the interest of the above conversation, I thought I'd post all five of the shoes to help potentially illuminate the bias of the shoe. Ok. The shoes are from a smaller casino that I infrequently visit. When I say small, they only have one bacc table (so unfortunately, you can't avail yourself of a better table as all the rest of the tables are BJ). But, they do handshuffle. I believe that the casino starts by loading a preshuffled deck and from there, hand shuffles at the end of each shoe as these are face up games, not touch where the cards are disposed of. I timed the shuffles and they all seem to take between 7 and 10 minutes. This casino is incredibly slow. One of the shoes took over an hour and a half to play out It's an eight deck shoe. Shoe # 1 (which I came in late on, but picked up a couple of units at the end. The log on the tote board said that this was shoe number 3 since the table opened) B 41411211221 B 51122122211 P 11123221 Shoe #2 P 51122111321 B 211221111161 B 2211121312211 P 2122 Shoe # 3 (This is the one I got crunched on) P 15121112132 B 52212314 P 212421152 B 3121 Shoe #4 (I came in very late on this shoe (and they seemed to have rocketed through this one compared to the others I sat) as I was so annoyed with Shoe # 3 I went off to a different part of the casino, rewrote it and replayed it. I found a couple of simple errors, but still struggled to beat the shoe) P 15211113122 P 121132212113 B 213315212 P 2151 (My confidence had taken a hit on shoe #3 and I ended up, after entering late on this one, losing three units, but then making them back to zero out on this one) Shoe # 5 B 2112123212111 B 1111111123111211 B 132121312112 P 2 I did much better on the last one, but then learnt a very expensive lesson about not quitting when you're tired and your concentration is getting really short (it was about 1.30am by this stage - I wasn't kidding when I said they take forever dealing these shoes). Anyway, won't be making that mistake a second time. So there you go team. I'd appreciate your expert advice. As I mentioned, shoe #3 decimated the table. There were 12 people playing but by the lasst third of the shoe it was down to just me and one other, and she had been doing really well all night until that shoe wiped her out. Thanks again Chief PS Ellis, hope you're feeling better.

Thanks Steve. I will send through (hopefully later today). You've got it in one when you said how it 'morphed'. I'll point out when I send through later. Cheers Chief

Hi Steve, I played on Saturday night and was resoundedly beaten by a shoe that murdered everyone else at the table. I will post it, I just don't have it with me at the moment, but it defied every system. No one could get over the top of it. Do you think that this could be one of those 'crazy shoes' that you're referring to? Thanks Chief

Hi Stephen, I think that Spec is just frustrated. He did say that he has attended a large amount of the seminars and Vegas trips and was seeking something more advanced. That seems to mean that he's not randomly or arbitrarily expressing frustration. It's simply the case that having been a loyal customer and supporter (according to his statements) he feels the need for something else to advance us all in our baccarat quest. We've all seen plenty uninformed and disgruntled members or guests that clearly have not done the work, the reading or the practice, throwing around barbed insults that are disrespectful and malicious. I'm sure that in review he wouldn't intend to disrespect Ellis and the monumental effort that Ellis puts in to this forum and us as players. (And might I add by way of the above, that (Ellis this is to you) there is certainly not enough that we can do to thank you for the hours and hours that you put into our development. I know that there are a million other things that you could be doing but am eternally grateful that you spend many of your days listening to our frustrations and reviewing how some nasty casino handed our hat to us. Thanks a million Big E.) To be honest I think Spec was simply stating that he wanted to understand more of the mental framework of where Ellis' thought processes were coming from. I'm sure that we all can understand that the limited nature of written posts do sometimes lead words to not fully portray our feelings and thoughts. It's not the same as sitting around the coffee table where someone's gestures and tone of voice can easily illustrate the difference between frustration, the feeling of being misunderstood, and anger/contempt. I think that we all need to appreciate that intent can be misinterpreted in any forum. It's a limitation that comes with the method of communication. Having said that, I think that you, Stephen, have added a significant corollary concept to this debate. Having a 'Live Play' session every few weeks is a collossal idea. I think that that is a significant step forward and a way to further refine the play of the advanced players on the forum. Excellent idea. That alone could take this forum to the next level. Chief

Congratulations on making the plunge Gagliardi! Let us all know if you are having challenges. I don't trust the machines. It's too easy to cheat (and we know how Casinos deal with that constant temptation, don't we?). There are other options, particularly at the early stages when you just need to practice, practice, practice to get the systems down. All the best Chief

Hi Spec, I heartily concur. I get exactly where you're coming from. If I may throw in my two cents worth again, perhaps we can flesh it out into something more tangible. First off, may I say, whilst the internet and technology enables us – miraculously - to even be participating in conversations such as this, it is still a digital (on/off) medium. The challenge is that communication is more art than science, and written communication (such as this) is ripe for misunderstanding. I believe that such an awareness and the effort from us all to stay aware of this often significant limitation is critical to the success of any forum. Secondly, I spent a significant amount of time studying NLP. In NLP, there is a process called 'Modelling'. That process relates to a belief that as we are all humans with two arms, two legs and one brain (although politicians may be exempt from this definition) therefore what one individual can achieve must be a result of how they organise themselves mentally/neurologically (no one has extra neurons or two brains with which to outflank everybody else). Without getting too technical, if you wish to learn how one person achieves something that is outstanding in their field, part of the key is to understand their neurological coding. All great students of great masters eventually learn this neurological coding through time and calibration of the master. HOWEVER, there are two difficulties. First, we are not face to face with Ellis on a daily basis. Secondly, we don't have the twenty plus years to dedicate to potentially achieve an emulation of how Ellis thinks and how he approaches his skillset. To my understanding, what Spec is proposing, whilst seeming existential, is a far higher level type of understanding of what makes Ellis a great, great player. For example, a great Karate black belt might instruct you as to how to break a block of wood. By stating "(a) make a knife with your hand, ( make it solid, © strike in one continuous downward motion without hesitation" he will have given you a blow by blow account of the specific 'how to' of breaking wood. If you try that, I bet you fail. At the very least, you may have to bruise your hand thousands upon thousands of times before you realise that there is a mental mindset that the master had that they had not yet conveyed. By adding to his instruction, "one must imagine that the end point of the karate chop is two inches below the actual surface of the wood" the student is able to take on the mental/neurological distinction that will lift his performance and save a lot of bruises (if he didn't simply give up in pain and frustration). I believe that what Spec is hoping to foster is epistemology. That simply means how we think about what we think about. That is why the class would be particularly useful for seasoned players who understand and are intimately familiar with all the systems. That's what makes it advanced. They know 'what' to do to break the wood, they need finer distinction in 'how' to approach it. The ultimate master wants his students to become masters, and knows that mastery comes from the thinking not the doing. What the seminar might kick off in our minds is primarily to change the way we think about Bacc and becoming a great player. Secondly, it might cut twenty years of study down to ten, five or two. Stephen, I appreciate your position within the BTC organisation and your keenness to provide a seminar. With respect, I think something was lost in translation. Spec, I believe, is not saying DON'T do the types of seminars you mentioned. He seems to have said, though, that he has indeed experienced first hand MANY of them and has not found in them what he's looking for. Hence this very advanced concept. I think that there is considerable space for the seminars that you're speaking of - although once again I'll instil my objection that such seminars are of diminished value for those of us that are spread across different corners of the world. The seminars proposed might well be of significant value to beginners, those of moderate expertise and those wishing to practice amongst expert coaching. However, Spec has clearly identified that there will come a time when the advanced player who wishes to truly master Bacc will say "I need something more". Does the forum lose anything by having a consultation committee of 3 or 5 of the best players? I would imagine that such a committee would be a great boon for the forum as they can propose things that only the consumer/member of the forum is thinking. I would have loved for NormA to have been a part of such a guidance group. Their very first project could be to assist to deliver specifications/wishes for this very seminar/training that Spec is proposing. Then, Stephen, it would be over to you to project manage it to fruition. Everybody's happy. This small group (Spec's right again about 'too many cooks') might meet over Skype, and provide a fount of new ideas and concepts that might well take this forum to the next level. Also, final thought for Keith and Ellis, if Spec's idea of presenting a way to train out the model of how a genius like Ellis approaches the game (and the same thing could and should be done for BJ!!!) is successful - mindful that this is not guaranteed - such a model in book form would be ridiculously profitable. Time for someone else to weigh in. Thanks for taking your time to read my verrrrry lengthy post. Chief

Hi All, With respect, can I suggest that perhaps there be a management committee of three players (with Spec as Chair) to prepare the proposed logistics to present to Ellis? The project would include preparation of shoes, facilitation to Ellis during the broadcasted program(s), maintenance of the question facility (so it's not a confusing free-for-all), cataloguing the material for future access and reference, and the like. What do we all think? If all goes well, this may prove a great ongoing interactive process. Perhaps it could evolve to top players playing shoes and Ellis critiquing them (so the onus is not always on Ellis to shoulder the load). If our goal is for all committed players to hit that initial target of a million dollars, this program would be unrivaled. Chief PS You've unleashed a mighty idea here Spec. Well done. We all owe you!

Hi Bobby, I'm just a player here - like you. I joined about six months before you, and I work in the legal field. I never once got the impression that I was paying for what was being proposed here with the "Accelerated Learning Program" (Great name Oz!). I'm not sure what you are referring to, but please don't think that you're missing out on 'what should have been taught in the first place'. I've found my fellow players on this forum to be open, honest, supportive and inspiring. Yes sometimes we get frustrated with each other, but this forum is a rare opportunity to communicate and learn with like-minded players, combined with the guidance of Ellis - whom I have acknowledged to be a genius in this field, and a resource and man I am privileged to interact with. I can't speak for the adminstrators/management of the site, but if you feel that you're not getting the support you need, you are welcome to message me and I will do my utmost to bring you up to speed. We're all in this together. Chief

Hi All, Great work, great idea Spec! Count me in. I whole heartedly endorse the concept. I just hope that we can manage the time differences as we are all placed across a global network that suffers from time zone challenges. Seeing as there'd be no questions then maybe it can be recorded for the convenience of others who are asleep when you're at peak playing conditions. Also, I think Ellis' idea of having someone deal out shoes instead of being too closely linked to casino timings (some of which are too damn slow and some of which are too damn FAST!). Can someone not just secure the required amount of live shoes from casinos and then 're-deal' them to Ellis? Still real shoes, but just dealt under our classroom conditions. Can I also just say that why I think that this is so valuable, is because I think that Ellis is a genius. I think that he has internalised a lot of the lessons and distinctions that make him so great at this field. The problem with that is that genius' can't always verbalise what made them think or act in a particular fashion. It's unconscious. Recreating a demand scenario is not about the outcome it's about starting to map out the thought processes that will make it unconscious for all of us and what will result in a cadre of better players. I think that this exercise, which you might dub as "Advanced Bacc Mental Mapping" might be the singularly most valuable lesson Ellis has given. I think that the reason that Ellis will often break into stories (Sorry Ellis for speaking of you in the third person) is that the lessons/distinctions are so deeply embedded in the events of the time that he learnt them, that as he retrieves them it triggers the specific circumstances of the experience which he relates. I personally learn HEAPS from Ellis' stories about the mental frame of a professional player. So. I think Spec's idea is brilliant. Count me in Chief

Well done Way2fast. A quick calc gives you around 13-15 units. With the MDB million goal table, that's exactly on point. Great job! All the time you spend crafting expert Bacc knowledge shines through. The most important lesson for all the rest of us, particularly if we weren't able to attend, is to keep studying and practising until we can operate with similar confidence in our results. Chief

Hi Gman, I get your point. Here's my input for what it's worth. The casino that I frequent is mercilessly extracting every last cent with the monstrously pre-programmed shoes - without any pretense of allowing the 'punters' an occasional break. I'll return to this in a moment. The first issue that I have is that I used to play from the standing position, but now that I'm annotating all the extra information on my scorecard, it's almost impossible to keep track and dive between the press of bodies to actual get my bet down before the dealer deals. Secondly, returning to the programmed shoes, table selection is almost useless in my casino as the moment that a shoe displays a bias it is the actuarial equivalent of the judas goat. The bias is there to hook your reliance, so that it can change patterns to reverse its previous path. As a consequence, my best success (only success at this stage against these programmed shoes) is to jump right in to the shoe at hand three. This more often than not results in my riding the establishment of the pattern before it switches to betray those who seek to rely on it. This, of course, is particular to my situation. Your casino may be honestly and legitimately .... (sorry had to pause a minute there, I was laughing too hard to type) present shoes that are not designed to cheat you. In my recent experience, the manufacture of shoes that are unplayable if you seek to rely on a bias is rife and a recipe for enlist you in the Society for the Preservation Of Killer casino profits at the Expense of all comers (SPOKE for short). Good luck Bro Chief

Hi Sarrom, That's a very good question. From my limited experience, the dictators of that would be the progress of the shoe itself, within the boundaries of your stoploss/stopwin horizons. It's very tempting when you've done well (or even poorly for that matter) to look to jump back in when the shoe starts to show signs of something you can use. Disobeying your stop indicators (stoploss/stopwin) is fraught with danger, however (yes, based on my sad experience!). One thing I have noticed, having now played many, many shoes is that quite often I see a pattern that effectively divides the shoe (hand shuffled or casino-cheat-machine-shuffled) into three sections. I find it roughly happens around the 20 hand mark, ie first third of the shoe changes at hand 20, second at hand 40 and from then on follows the final play out of the shoe. What seems to work in section one, will often go awry in the middle of the shoe, and will then sometimes return or at least break from the pattern in the middle. I've learned to watch that tertiary changeover very, very carefully. Good luck Chief

Hear, Hear.

Sorry Ellis, I didn't mean to trouble. I know it's simple, but I don't know why I'm not getting it. Apologies anyway. Chief