ChiefAurelius

Hey guys, Could I trouble some of the wiser heads (seems to be everyone but me at the moment!) to have a look at this shoe please? P 124411223 B 313125122 B 15231512 P 1221215 I won't let you know how I went on it, but suffice to say it wasn't pretty. Thanks in advance Chief BTW Einstein also did not know his own phone number. When rousted about it by a grad student, he replied in full force, "Why would I clog up my brain with information that I can easily find in the phone book?" A habit apparently also shared by Henry Ford.

Likewise! The modes are the area that I'm really falling down in, and I don't understand the reason for my mental block. I've printed and will be re-reading it all weekend. I'm also making it a goal to fly over and attend the next seminar. Time to make my skills pay their keep! Thanks Ellis. Thanks Gman. Thanks Derkyft. Cheers Chief

Yeah I know what you mean. At the moment, my schedule is doing the same to me. It's discouraging when you've looked forward to some live casino time, and the first couple of table choices are not all wine & roses. Lately, I've been seeing a perfect table and it's been chockablock with tyrekickers and rude timewasters. OR, I sit down at a table that looks good, but I've misjudged it. That all eats into my available time. Frustrating, but it is what it is. Funny enough in my casino the management seems to have tried to 'massage' the treasure they extract from the sheeple by removing all $100 bet tables and changing them to $150, $200, $300s. They've shot themselves in the foot because in order to not lose the 'dawdler' traffic they've opened a heap of $20 tables in the other part of the casino. Patience usually yields a spot in that area. Also, this is a little bit 'out there' but working on the mental side of the game, I've been reading some quotes from Dr John Lilly. I don't know if you can make something out of this... "In the province of the mind, what is believed to be true is true or becomes true, within certain limits to be found experientially and experimentally. These limits are further beliefs to be transcended. In the province of the mind, there are no limits." Also, I was thinking of another idea for cash management, and maybe Ellis might like to weigh in with his superior expertise (I'm very good with strategy, VERY BAD with maths!!!), for when the shoe starts looking like it might head stratospherically. I've looked at Ellis' posts about +30 or even +40 shoes, and thought that there possibly should be a progression that broadens the 'straddle'. I tried on some practice shoes last night, and thought maybe something like when the score hits +11, the stop loss should remain at either half the gain point, or at a fixed point (say -5 until you hit +15, then it becomes a -10 stop loss). There certainly seems a need to adapt your play to the shoes that prostrate themselves in front of your wealth accrual plans! Maybe it's best engaged if you switch to U1D1... Anyway, sorry this is not more cogent. For now I'm going back to my notes. I'm still misjudging when I should be M2 as opposed to M3. Good luck mate. Good luck all. Chief

Thanks Gman. Reading your sojourns into the field, really helps. Particularly with your candour with your mistakes. We've all been hooked by our determination to not let the casino win, and it's beaten us. Like else says, "it's not you vs the casino. It's you vs you." I have a friend who has played for years and has a particular bias when he plays (regularly chases Player for some reason). He was behind, and staked his entire bankroll ($20K) on a bet. Do you know what the bet was? There were 16 B's iar. He thought it surely must come in P. So he slammed it down. You can guess the rest... We've been friends for years, and I love him dearly... and how could he be so STUPID?! The hook had him. And after years, he still was not able to beat himself. One thing that might help. I've been following your scorecards. You've used the system Ellis has designed, and your scorecards are really clean and easy to follow. I used to work in finance with exposure to options trading. I heeded the advice of way2fast & Ellis with the half-decade cash management, so on my scorecards when I hit a profit I engage the -5 stoploss by drawing a line and then writing in the new exit point (kind of like an options straddle). That is, once I hit +6 (the first exit point that a -5 stoploss will allow an exit with a profit of +1), I draw a slash under the current score and, like the base of a fraction write in +1. e.g. +6/+1. It trails up but only the top trails back. For example... +6/+1; +7/+2; +6/+2; +4/+2; +7/+2; +8/+3; +7/+3; +5/+3; +8/+3; etc If the shoe unleashes a bundle of goodness on you, you climb that stairway to heaven, if it goes to crap, it's in black and white in front of you. One of the rules of management is 'what can be measured, can be managed." I kinda see it as adding one extra layer of management in our pursuit of making it like a business. Hopefully it might prove helpful. Not that you need my help, you are blazing a trail man! I understand your frustration with the 'overhanging' players. In my casino, the manners are so bad, that while I'm standing respectfully behind the table to get the 'lay of the land', other players will purposefully walk in between me and the players chairs, bumping me backwards at the same time, when there is a thousand square foot behind me to walk around. Some people...grrrr. Outstanding work Gman!

You're kidding right? You and I joined around the same time. I work my ass off on this stuff, and you got me beat. Your hard work is coming home to Papa. Great job Gman.

Give 'em hell derkyft!

Thanks Ellis. That's very enlightening, and super helpful. I was stuck on exactly the same thing. Gman, don't be disheartened. I learn heaps from your approach and astute observations. When Ellis responds to your insight it always results in a far greater comprehension from where I'm standing. Thanks godsend for sparking this cracking discussion. And congrats on bouncing back to beat the casino into submission! I did a casino stint last night, and completely tanked. This thread was exactly what I needed to regroup, pick up my shattered confidence, and learn learn learn. Thanks to all of you for the refocus.

Hi Way2fast, I appreciate your point. Please don't misunderstand me, I'm not having a moan - although I won't be chairman of the "I trust casinos because they're good guys" fan club anytime soon. The reason I say "designer shoes" is because all of the tote boards that I looked at that night - with only one exception out of twenty tables - seemed to emulate this shoe. It may be that I'm a beginner and saw three distinct directions in the shoe, but two other players on this forum who seem to be fairly sharp, were equally deterred by it. They didn't see it as superb until they had the advantage of your superior knowledge. So, forgive my inexperience and I'm deeply grateful for you imparting your profoundly deeper understanding so that I can benefit. You are telling the gospel truth when you say that we must learn to recognise all biases (including the ones that beat us). But please don't think for a second I was happy to dismiss it because it beat me. Chief

It's a strange situation. Australia is roughly three quarters of the continental United States of America (or more?), reported to be the sixth largest nation on earth. Yet there are only six states and two territories. There's roughly one casino for each of these divisions. Can anyone say crony-stacked monopoly? There's been a recent kerfuffle with what seems like Australia's sole surviving entrepreneur getting approval for a second casino in Sydney in years to come. It's claimed that he will pitch to "Asian high rollers". Will those high rollers be prepared to travel to Australia for 'designer shoes'? Who knows. One of the territory casinos has ONE bac table. For players in Sydney, it's one casino take it or leave it.

Thanks Ellis. I can confirm that there's no history discernible at Sydney Casino. I did see a hell of a lot of these type "designer" shoes that night though. Believe it or not this looked like the most attractive of a bunch of very bad shoes. Ah well, back to the study! Cheers Chief

Thanks guys. Your approaches are all helpful, and inspire me to pick up my torpedoed confidence and learn to play at your level. Gman, I did as you did, and tried it multiple ways without cracking the code. Waytofast, I'm very grateful for the tips on the four events. That makes a lot of sense by way of confirmation. I'm going to try it on my practice shoes. A question on your commentary, what's a trailing loss? Is that incrementing your stop loss as you raise your win rate? So, if for example your stop loss is -5, then when you hit +10, your trailing stop loss is a track back to +5? Is that the essence of "half-decade cash management"? Oz, I'll see you at the bar til I get better at this! Thanks all. Best of fortune to you. Chief

Aloha all, Once again I climb the mountain to the oracle, in hopes of choosing a better path! I tagged on to this thread, as we don't really have a thread for hard shoes. Anyway, I played a couple of shoes on Saturday night and got spanked on both. Pardon my cynicism, but I wandered around the casino and saw some very hard shoes. The combination of a bumper Saturday night crowd, very difficult shoes, big cash giveaways constantly being announced over the PA system, and a (what seems to be annual) bump on the (midi) Bac table limits ($100 tables to $150, $150s to $200s, & $200s to $300s), I kinda got the impression that the Casino was sending the lambs to the slaughter (at least were orchestrating a move to fatten up their winter profits). In spite of my best efforts, I went baaaaing along with the rest of the lamb chops. Lucky for the discipline that NOR teaches on our stop losses, and I walked away before they brushed me with mint sauce. However, the second of the two shoes really bugged me. I think it goes to the heart of something that I seem to be not getting (whatever that is). Here's the shoe: B 231614111 P 211253114 B 1121211123212 B 31 I jumped in mid shoe and got creamed. But reviewing it later, I thought I misread it and used the wrong mode. What I've found more frustrating is that I played it again as a practice shoe, and I didn't get so creamed but it's still not pretty. I certainly am not getting/manouevering between modes well. I seem to be failing to pick the mode, and/or picking the events that signal to change. Insights/thoughts? I really rather avoid life as a cutlet! (the world don't need no more sheep, for sure & certain...) Chief

Thanks Ellis. That makes a lot of sense. I've been religiously tracking the OR count, but the more I practised, the more I felt pushed to pre-empt the count by looking more at the direction it was heading rather than in a positive/negative. Now as I practice, I still find events that flog me when they shouldn't. I even tried stopping for a couple of hands, pretending it was a new shoe and starting the count again. This helped me get that mental break that you speak of where you're able to chat at the table, rather than be buried in the scorecard. I keep a notebook where I write down all of the critical concepts from the manuals and the forum. I'll be pasting this in: S40 likes high 1's and 2's OTB4L likes high 2s and 3s F likes high 4 or mores and Strong Side Can I just ask - forgive me if its a silly question - the ability to detect the shifting patterns without reliance on the OR count, will that just come with time, practice and application? I suppose what I'm trying to say is, is there something else that I should be paying attention to, or will it just emerge from greater immersion in our work? Thanks again. Chief

Funny enough (well not surprising really), Ellis picked up on the one thing I'd left out because I thought you guys might be bored listening to it... the mental game. The more I practice and the more I drill down into the live play, the more I become aware of the ability of NOR+ to support the mental decisions and to bolster the belief in your game that is needed to beat the casino. I remember that wonderful book As a man thinketh... "Man is made or unmade by himself; in the armory of thought he forges the weapons by which he destroys himself. He also fashions the tools with which he builds for himself heavenly mansions of joy and strength and peace... Of all the beautiful truths pertaining to the soul which have been restored and brought to light in this age, none is more gladdening or fruitful of divine promise and confidence than this - that man is the master of thought, the molder of character, and maker and shaper of condition, environment, and destiny. As a being of Power, Intelligence, and Love, and the lord of his own thoughts, man holds the key to every situation, and contains within himself that transforming and regenerative agency by which he may make himself what he wills." To be honest, there were times playing where not only did I know automatically what my next bet had to be, I was so busy precalculating the next bet and how it affected the pattern, I wasn't sure if I was on the hand that just won. Of course I chastised myself for that, but I will get better with application, as we all know that those dealers may well use that gap in attention to pull a 'swifty'. Thanks again. It's great to be able to share this journey with such great fellow travellers on the path to the top of the mountain. Chief

Hi All, A quick recap. After taking onboard the advice above, I returned to the casino. I'm happy to report that in spite of most every single shoe that I observed ALL night displaying Neutral patterns, and in spite of that type shoe being likely to murder me previously, I walked away 16 units up. It wasn't always easy going, but they all generally followed the rules we've learnt. I watched others get decimated around me, and had to laugh, when the clueless dealer was gossiping with her pit boss about how disappointed she was that the latest Brad Pitt movie was about zombies... she's surrounded by them in her line of work! Thank you Ellis. Thank you all. It's good to win, even if I do have a lot more learning to go! Best fortune to you all. Chief

"And I never even knew her name!" Damn, that was funny! I laughed so hard I nearly choked on my coffee. Well played.

Thanks Oz. That makes sense. Cheers mate. Chief

Thanks Ellis. I thought you might turn it on its head! The question that arises for me from your answer is in your approach. The thing that I've made the core of my play having read substantial amounts of the material - is the OR count. I feel like I've been looking for a sunrise in the west for the entire time I've been playing Bac, and someone (you and NOR) have said "keep your eyes peeled to what's happening in the east". So, if the OR count would lead me to select S40, is there an assessment point that you would see that starts to make you realise that S40 was a red herring and the true selection was OTB4L? I suppose my elongated question is: "how do you know?" If I jump in at play 2, I only have the OR count to guide (no past history on the preshuffled shoes). In my inexperience, am I missing that it might be best to lead in with OTB4L M3 until/unless the shoe starts playing out clearly in a direction? Also, with regards OTB4L M3, is that U1D2M3 (meaning that the third bet is a mandatory 3 units)? Forgive me for all the questions, I'm just determined as hell to be very good at this. Thanks to you and all on the forum for the help. Cheers Chief

Thanks Oz! That helps. And certainly makes me feel better. Hey, have you noticed at Sydney casino how the dealers will occasionally shake the shoe? By that I mean that they grasp the end of the shoe, raise it, shake it and put it back in position. Am I being overly cynical by thinking that this might trigger a shuffle inside the remaining shoe? Thanks again. Chief

Thanks Ellis!

To add to the analysis... in reading my notes, I think I broke the 12 play rule in not leaving it alone after the first twelve plays didn't display an obvious bias. Thoughts?

Hi all, I was hoping for some advice from the more experienced than I. As part of my learning progression, I went to the casino last night to 'road test' my latest block of learning. The first shoe I hit, I got completely scraped. Still, it's important to get beat under live conditions I believe, so that I come back bigger & better next time. So, I was hoping I might get some feedback on what I might have done better, and what I missed (I'm sure I missed lots). The shoe in question: B 111133631 P 1113312122111 P 322312312 P 1112 I jumped in on hand 4 as it seemed to clearly be S40 time. I picked up that and the next bet to be 2 units up. The next 2 Bs handed out 2 losses. So I went Mode 2 Chop which dealt a third loss. I'm still shaky at my betting progressions, so I'd raised my bet to 2 units for that one. Being a newbie, I tried to recheck my OR count and regather, jumping in 2 hands later with a progression to a bet of 3 units - as the OR count seemed to be heading in a negative direction. That one missed also, as it reverted to B which racked my loss rate to 7. I was eating into my stake, so I once again recalibrated, double checked the OR count (too much of a perfectionist and under the belief that I must have mis-strategized). I tagged the last two bets of the F run on B, but lost the next 2 P hands. Hit the stop loss and withdrew to simply track the shoe for my records. I was frustrated as the shoe progressed, as I had an enormous hit rate on the zero bets (dummy bets) from then on, but 'that's baseball for ya'. Any insight would be GREATLY appreciated so thanks in advance. Chief PS I ended up the night on a smaller table which I entered late in the piece and rode that for a 10/6 Win/Loss. It played out much more simply and I think I played it neatly - making my money on s40 and Mode2 when it diverged on the Player run. The shoe was: P 14111242211 B 111431222112 B 1111251111

Got it Ellis. Thank you again. I've written down your last statement particularly, as this seems to be a great guiding principle, "view switching as a necessary evil to be deployed only when necessary. Chasing is not necessary." My friend who has played Bac for decades, and the last 5 years 'professionally' does well, but misses that guiding principle. He often loses thousands chasing a table that's turned against him. Behaviour probably borne out of frustration at having made money on runs that are becoming less and less obtainable (he can only play flat patterns of Repeats and opposites). For example, the post I made last week showed a shoe that I profited from using what I've learnt from NOR, and then after dinner I came back to the shoe, and the table could not be more exact in its "correction" to being OTB4L. When you see that regularly, it's hard to believe that it's not engineered that way. Cheers Chief

Hi all, I've just got a quick question regarding F. I've read the manual and the bootcamp manual and I'm still hitting a mental blank. In F, is F2, Mode2? And F3, is that Mode 3? For example on page 17 of the bootcamp manual it states at the top "Follow and Strong Side F-2 F-3 or SS..." then on the next page it speaks of Modes 2 & 3. I'm just concerned that I've missed something. Thanks in advance. Good luck to all. Chief

Thanks MVS and Way2fast! I learnt a lot from that. Cheers Chief