gman72
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Posts posted by gman72
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The only way I can come up with is the way Ellis explained it somewhere here. Bet the minimum wager to keep the shoe running and (often opposites if the cards are new preshuffled) then bet the amount you were supposed to according to MBD+.
Since you will need touch tables most likely, to get new pre shuffled cards each shoe, those will be $100 min tables, so you better be playing $1,000+ units to make that strategy work feasibly so you could bet $100 mins until an MDB+ event then bet your $1,000+ unit. But if you are a $100 unit bettor then this is not going to work for you.
I suppose you could bet both sides and just lose the commission on banker wins. I've never done this in the casino, so not sure if they'd allow that play to keep a shoe going or not.
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Is anyone playing or played MDB+ live in a casino? I'm really curious how someone is going to sit at a bacc table, through a whole shoe, and only make around 5-10 bets. I don't think you could play heads up because they won't just deal all those free hands. And if the table is full they'll probably ask you to get up to make the seat available for another player. I guess if you find a table with only a few players you might be able to pull it off. How is this going to work in reality? I'd love to hear if anyone is actually playing it. I guess playing online it could work ok. Thoughts?
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Has anyone else played the 20 pre-shuffled shoes listed in post #1 of this thread, using MDB+? Would anyone be willing to post their results?
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I shudder to think that one report of 21 shoes showing a -7 net is reason to abandon a system that earlier showed double digit PA. I think tweaking that system can be done to reduce risk and fix the system.
Correct. Abandoning the system was not at all my intention in posting those results. It was just to show that one way wasn't showing results as good as another way. I wasn't giving up on MDB, just reporting some of my testing results. I believe MDB still works, we just need to find the right tweaks to get it working optimally to meet our +5 goals.
As far as MDB+ goes, I see it as something that can possibly be incorporated into our MDB play. Just my thoughts.
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Right gman. That is why we are not considering MDB for the upcoming Vegas high stakes play session. Using the highest SAP count in new preshuffled touch games - near random cards, makes no sense as you have just demonstrated. The lowest SAP count makes a lot more sense. But we are not concerned about that right now. We have a high stakes trip coming up very shortly.
That is why we are concentrating on MDB+. By the current rules the only way it can lose is 5 3+s W/O a 2 or 5 2+s W/O a 1 or 5 4+s W/O a 3.
That is simply not going to happen in new preshuffled cards. And it would be very rare in any cards.
Nevertheless, we are trying to improve on those rules before the play session and we could use all the help we can get.
The win rate of MDB+ has been extremely high to say the least. So high that we will likely completely replace MDB with it.
It is a single system instead of 3 and it is purely mechanical and extremely simple. A player of your caliber can learn it in ten minutes.
Time is of the essence. Please help us try to improve it in time for the play session. Forget MDB at least for now. We can fix that later if we still want to.
Anybody else just throw your arms up and say WTF!!!!! after reading this? I just have to laugh. So the last three months of work was for sh*t I guess?
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Just as an FYI,
I replayed the 21 pre-shuffled shoes in this thread from Mike's original post below. I replayed them following the MDB rules to the T, and starting after 2 events are confirmed to establish a SAP count. I never started before hand #4 or after hand #8 in any of the shoes.
The results are not good. 8 winning shoes, 13 losing shoes for a net loss of -7 units. This loss is despite one shoe at +10 and another at +20.
Oh, and another thing, in one shoe I lost the whole secondary progression.
I'm going to have a hard time accepting changing systems based solely on the highest SAP count based on these results, even though it is only a tiny sample.
Edit: I just went back and read this post http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/showthread.php?t=8119&p=44444#post44444
I remembered there was a reason I wasn't going with just the highest SAP count. I'm just going to be one who tweaks the rules a little. Keeping in mind the overall MDB strategy.
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Well, for PBPB I'm thinking S4 at least to start. Both S1 and S4 love 1's but S4 bets less and gets on long ST runs sooner. They both bet the same (S1 and S4) starting out. Then we see what 2s are doing to decide the issue.
That wouldn't be following the MDB rules as posted. That shoe start would have 1's as the highest SAP count so the system to play is S1 per the rules. I think the consensus from the last MDB seminar was that we should strictly follow the rules as posted. At least that's what I've been told. On that note, I think we need a rule on when to start playing in a new shoe, since I think starting at play 2 has been deemed not the best idea.
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Gman, thanks for posting your shoes. Could you please post the same 4 shoes you just put up with the MDB+ system to compare? Thanks.
I'm not up on MDB+ yet. I'm still focusing on playing MDB strictly by the rules. I better leave that to Ellis or Keith to do.
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Ok, here are the same four shoes I just posted below, except I played them out following exactly the MDB mechanical rules posted by Ellis in the rules sticky thread. I don’t want to make things more confusing by posting this, I really hope it helps.
image2014_07_02_16_14_460001.pdf
With the previous way I posted, I was following all the rules correctly in playing the primary and secondary progressions with each system, I just used a slightly different trigger to switch systems. (Highest two SAP counts, instead of just the highest) That should be pretty clear if you want to compare the shoes.
It shows slightly different results. In the first post the results were +15, -5, +1, -5 for a total of +6. Played by the exact MDB mechanical rules I got +4, +5, -5, -5 for a total of -1.
The first three shoes start at play #5 and the fourth at play #6, this is so I have confirmed at least four plays and also at least two events before starting. This is the only part that is not in the sticky rules thread yet, but I believe similar new start rules will be incorporated into MDB based on recent posts.
In shoe #1, I start at play #5 after the 2’s are the high SAP count after play #4. After play #5 the 1’s and 2’s SAP count are equal so the next play is S1 based on the rules showing a tie of high 1’s and 2’s is S1. 1’s stays the high count after play #6 so I stay with S1. I hit +5 at play #12 which is only the 8th hand since I started betting, and is before my 15th played hand, so I continue with the intent to capture +4 if I lose. I do lose at the very next hand so I’m out of the shoe at +4 at hand #13 per the MDB rules.
Shoe #2 starts S23 as the 2’s SAP count is highest. After hand #6 the 3’s are highest, but that’s still S23. S23 holds for the rest of the shoe even as 2’s and 3’s are tied for highest. Again I hit +5 within 15 played hands and continue till hand #16 where I capture +5 because I’m facing a two bet at hand #17 that would take me below my capture of +4.
Shoe #3 is awful. I lose the first five bets and hit the -5 stop loss at play #9.
Shoe #4 just never got going and hit -5 at play #14. After play #9 when I was still OTR from the S23 ZZ secondary progression, the 1’s and 2’s SAP count tied pointing to S1 so I switched. Which by the way would keep me on the ZZ run if it continued.
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6/23 Aria Preshuffled
P1211111212111111112313111341112121111111231
B21312135242
B111314112111124312
B221111133221111111132131312253112
Here is another four shoes I played out from the ones Mike posted.
image2014_07_02_11_32_410001.pdf
As a note, I choose the system to play based on the highest two SAP counts. This was pointed out in a previous post below.
Edit: I don't want to steer anyone in the wrong direction about how to play MDB. Please take these posted shoes as just me posting how I play and not gospel on the exact mechanical MDB rules as currently posted by Ellis. I can certainly post some shoes played that way, but these played shoes are not exactly that. Sorry for any problems caused by this, it's not my intention to be confusing.
These shoes really bring out a couple of good/tough situations to discuss.
In shoe #1, this is a common dilemma I come across. You are up immediately +5, right from the start, in your first five plays. Now you are really thinking, ok, SAP has obviously got me in the right system, it’s early in the shoe, so I’m going for it. Bam! The next play you lose and you’re at +4, what to do now? Follow MDB rules and capture +4 right there? Or keep going since it’s early in the shoe and you are 5 for 6 in placing the correct bet so for? I’m of the opinion you go for a bigger win. It could turn against you, but it’s so early in the shoe, would we really jump out that fast? I’d like to hear other’s thoughts on this. In this particular shoe it worked out great and you captured +15 at play #23.
Shoe #2 just never got going. The early SAP count pointing to S1 quickly backfired and got you down too early to recover. But, going by the highest SAP count only, you would have started S23 and hit +5 at play #12. This is an instance where going by the highest two SAP counts worked against me. But for every time this happens, my way works when the other wouldn’t have. This is based on my experience. I’m open to hearing why this is not a good way to play.
Shoe #3 hit +4 but couldn’t jump over before the shoe ended +1 at the last recorded play.
Shoe #4 is one of those where if I don’t make the switch to S1 at play #7 and would’ve stayed with S23, it looks like it would have done much better. Possibly could have changed to S4 at play #14 with the tie in the 2’s and 3’s SAP count and the 1’s highest, but usually I don’t change systems at the tie for the second highest count. What would everyone else have done here? Playing highest count here would have fared better I think in this one as well.
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Gman,
Thanks for posting the shoes. It was very helpful to see the application of MDB. ELLIS's posted rules uses the highes count only to determine the MDB system, giving options in cases of ties. You use the two highest counts it appears. I've had mixed success with both so I'm wondering if it is better to use both high counts to guide play or just the highest count per the posted rules.
You're right about the rules stating that you go with the highest SAP count. I got used to going with the highest two and have just got into the habit of following that. My opinion is that it doesn't make too big of a difference which way you go on this. For all the times one way worked better, you'll have times when the other would. Just my opinion based on my practice.
Following MDB rules strictly as posted is the correct way to play until Ellis says different. But again, I don't think my approach is really changing the method in any significant way and it would be easy for me to follow highest count more strictly if my practice proves out it would work much better.
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6/20 Hard Rock Preshuffled
P181112111151117113311333211111111
6/20 Aria Preshuffled
B5111311111111211427221121215121111321216
P1111212111111112112111122112112
B13631122211121113222227361241151
P3512231232211611119111411149
B212114313111241111142133232112119221
6/21 Hard Rock Preshuffled
B2211312211111349552211221311221
P13312211123313226113151113154112131
B2413114318112221541221112213121
P2412413223113333511221111111111221111
B12151121152112144225221221221411
Attached is how I played the first eleven pre-shuffled shoes Mike posted.
image2014_07_01_17_56_180001.pdf
My results were: 7 wins for a total of +63 units and 4 losses for -20 units, for a net win of +43 units.
For those that attended the seminar, take a look and let me know what you think. For the starting rules I waited for two events or in the case of a 4+ I waited until there was at least 4iar to confirm a 4+, regardless of how the run continued. You should be able to see that in the plays.
Also as a note, I played S23 when 2's and 4+'s were highest in the SAP count. There is some conflicting instruction on this, in the early posts of MDB we played it that way, but in the final MDB rules sticky thread it shows playing S4. Some clarification on this may be needed.
I'll be playing the rest of the 25 shoes Mike posted, but this is all I've got to so far. Anyone else have comments, let's hear them. Got to get fully prepared for the Vegas Crawl in August.
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I'm signed up for the Vegas Baccarat Crawl! This is a great idea. This will be an excellent way to play, learn, and collaborate with other members.
Don't miss out!
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I don't know if it's good or bad that we haven't heard anything yet about the seminar and how the play went. Hopefully they killed it at the tables and are still recovering from the post play celebrating.
Anxiously awaiting to hear how it went.
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Good luck to everyone at the seminar! Can't wait to hear the results from the tables.
Record lots of shoes for us so we'll have plenty to practice and talk about.
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Played 6 Shoes last night from beginning to end
all at same table (likely the busiest one at the casino all day)
shoes were played from 12:30AM to 8:00am, after my last recorded shoe, they changed cards and I left
these were reused cards, with about 16 hours play on them when I started.
MDB did quite well, so I think I might have recruited a new player or two.
B112132211113111111211215132111412324111
P111111127132211111233251151132233
P211211421142411213911212232412
B1122171232211113312111212211211216
B1221311124212116253111111243113212121
P421112122144211211851111111132
Ok, here's how I played them: image2014_06_19_14_51_250001.pdf
4 winners, three +5 and one +4, for +19 units won. 2 losers, both -5, for -10 units lost. Net win +9 units.
Thanks Mike for posting the shoes. Always great to have actual live shoes for practice.
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To confirm in post # 61 Ellis stated "Any time you win your secondary prog 0 1 2 3 or change systems, your secondary prog resets to 0" In the answer in post # 63 it was stated that any time you win any secondary prog bet of 1 2 or 3 you reset to zero, winning a zero bet does not reset to 0 just determines which side your remaining secondary prog bet is on?
That's correct.
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In the same shoe then since at play 6 the 0 won play 15 should have be 0 not 1 and play 26 should have been 1 not 2. This will confirm my understanding of the secondary prog, thanks.
No, the plays are correct as posted. The 0 bet result of the SP tells you whether to go OTR or ATR with the rest of the 123 SP. You always bet a 1 on the next SP bet after a 0. It's only when the 1,2, or 3 bet of the SP wins that you go back to the 0 bet on the next SP.
At play 6, the SP 0 bet won so the next SP bet of 1 at play 15 is ATR and it losses, so the next SP bet at play 26 is a 2 bet ATR. It wins, so at the next SP bet at play 39 you are back to a 0 SP bet.
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Gman, in preshuffled your secondary prog is more assured.
Your problem is that you are not making enough money on your secondary prog to cover the losses on your primary prog - just enough to break neven.
I ask again - Since our seconday prog has such a high hit rate in preshuffled, why are we betting so low??? Instead of 0123, why not 0246 when we are playing new preshuffled??? - Maybe even old preshuffled???
This is true in what I'm seeing in my testing. I agree a more aggressive secondary progression could help, the problem then becomes the -5 stop loss, it's just too tight with the progressions that way, especially if you start to go down early in the shoe.
My next concern then becomes if you increase the stop loss, then it makes having a stop win that is smaller more difficult to recover from those losing shoes.
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Right Gman, thanks!
So what we are saying is there are 4 different types of cards in Baccarat.
1. New regular cards: These are the easiest in my experience. Biases last for about 3 shoes.
2. Old regular cards: These tend to be streaky and/or strong sided - but not always.
3. New preshuffled: These tend to be closest to random, usually favor chop but are whatever the casino wants.
4. Old preshuffled; Biases change but overall tend to favor chop.
Some of the Vegas casinos change old preshuffled every 4 hours, which tells me that the casinos think new preshuffled are the hardest. Hmm, I'm not sure that holds for us.
It would be easy for us to only play new preshuffled - stick to the Vegas touch games - If that would help.
I'm trying to get a feel for which MDB likes best.
From the shoes turned in, MDB seems to do best with regular cards.
Gman, which are your practice shoes mostly?
First, my biggest obstacle is not having a lot of preshuffled shoes to practice. Some of my more recent shoes from my casino are preshuffled, since I started playing on a touch table some, but still not many. All of my old shoes are regular cards. I've been doing most of my recent MDB practice on Norm's 60 Vegas shoes, since I know those were preshuffled.
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Mirage B1111112121222
HR B12211112111111321262132321121
HR B11212322121141121116112523122612111
HR B133111311211
HR B1134111151211222723141432122112
HR P2531121111112
LUXOR B1115112221132311212411
MB B231212621111311131111113323251132
ARIA B131422112113225111331112271
ARIA P11343
Ok Mike, as promised, here is the shoes you posted played out MDB as best I know it.
image2014_06_16_10_38_210001.pdf
I have the results as 7 wins for +41 units and 3 losses for -11 units. That’s a net win of +30 units. This shoe win % result is better than my overall practice results, but still 70% is not quite up to that 90% shoe win rate.
I marked each shoe where I would have gotten out. Several of the shoes were really straight forward and the correct system based on the SAP count held fine. There were a few tough spots in a couple of the shoes, but for the most part following the correct system for the highest two SAP counts played out ok.
For the tougher counts, high 1’s & 3’s I played S4 and for high 2’s & 4’s I played S23.
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Nice win trillion!
A net +18 units in 9 shoes is a pretty good win. Your shoe win rate was better than my practice results.
I have 1 question in closing, should I stop after the next losing bet if I continue to win 3 or 4 units in a shoe multiple times during the shoe, but can't seem to get to 5 units?As far as this goes, my suggestion would be that if you are in the third column and have run up to 3 or 4 units multiple times, I would pick the conservative +3 and stop when you hit that. Just my suggestion. I've been doing that if I keep hitting 0 many times, I'm thinking about getting out next time I hit 0 anywhere near the end of the second column or top of third column. That's my preference.
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Hi gman,
I have almost completely forgotten the length rules for zz runs playing the MDB systems.
I had hoped they would be written in the NEW mdb rules thread.
Are you letting the zz runs run to the end or are you following rules similar to the ST runs ?
If you could point me to where the zz rules are written , I would appreciate it.
Thanks
Wendel
I think it is in the rules thread, but I'll try to explain as best as I can, and Ellis can correct if I make a mistake.
For S1 and S4+ you are on all ZZ runs with the primary progression.
If you are in S23 when your primary progression loses for the first time to a ZZ run, you bet your secondary progression OTR (ZZ), if it wins stay OTR (ZZ) until it loses. If you are still in S23 and your primary progression losses to a ZZ run again, you bet your secondary progression 1 bet OTR if the 0 bet lost to the ZZ or you bet your secondary progression 1 bet ATR if the 0 bet won.
It is exactly the same rules for the ST runs with all three systems, you just add tracking ZZ runs when using the S23 system. You stay OTR with ZZ's just like with ST staying on as long as the longest last run, unless 7's are coming up frequent in the shoes you are seeing and then you may want to stay on all runs until a loss. Same rules as ST runs.
I hope this helps. This is how I follow the current MDB rules. ( I hope I got it right.)
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gman,
good wrap up, however the losses I suffered came from playing tired and not following MDB rules which is a bad habit I have. I posted all except two of the mirage shoes (don't know what happened to those cards, but were both winning shoes) and I had a three more shoes at HR, one was +6 at $100 units which I lost the card for and another one was more of a quick gamblers hit where I was showing off for a friend jumped in for a few hands, made $1000 and left. Didn't record anything. The losses at HR were from the last shoe I played in HR at 6AM and lost 2K, then played same shoe 4 hours later (nobody had been at the table since) and lost another 1600. I was playing $400 units for that shoe. Apparently I didn't write down anything on that shoe because it isn't in my book. Either that or I ripped it up because I was upset for breaking my winning every day streak!
Hey Mike, Thanks for the additional color. I know we all appreciate hearing how others are faring in their play.
Mostly what I'm trying to figure out is a realistic shoe win rate. I believe as long as we can keep it up over 50% we can get ahead +units following disciplined stop losses, just not at as fast a rate as our MDB schedule would like. Obviously if we could win at a 90% rate it would seem that much more achievable. I'm just not seeing anything close to that yet.
MDB+ vs MDB vs NOR
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
That would be the ideal situation, but with MDB we're looking to be out of the shoe as early as possible with+5. With MDB+ it takes almost the whole shoe to get enough events to bet on to be able to reach +5.