gman72
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Posts posted by gman72
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Well, it is pretty hard to miss ten Ps vs 4 Bs esp when you aren't sure if you should get off the run in the first place.
Play 15 should be a 2 bet.
Plays 22 and 57 you bet the wrong side.
Fix those and you should hit +20 at play 64. Then either quit or bet 1 on the run until you lose.
We don't want to have mistakes in godsend's key shoe.
Agreed, no mistakes is the goal. Play 15 I made a 1 bet because since I was switching systems, I decided to be more conservative and start my progression over. A 2 bet is correct if continuing the progression at that point.
I have since realized my mistakes at plays 22 and 57. I was making the mistake of not staying OTR(or on the new SS) until a loss. I was following the M2 and M3 rules and only going OTR for 1 bet in M3 and 2 bets if the first won in M2. I think I'll replay the shoe continuing the progression at play 15 and correcting the plays at 22 and 57 and see how I do.
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Well played! Both of you!
But we need to get back to shoe 3 because that was the key make or break shoe for godsend's trip. Had she won that one, I'm pretty sure she would have got out of 4 with a small win and then killed 5.
Gman, do you want to take another crack at it first? Hint: Be careful to bet the right side and stay in the right mode.
But once we have that key shoe posted correctly played I want to show you a neat F trick of the trade that could have got us to +20 quicker and safer.
Ellis, should I play the shoe #3 in question a different way than I played it in post #9 below? I believe I played the shoe according to your narration in post#6. I started OTB4LM3 and switched to F2. I did this based on what you had posted. I'm still having a harder time being confident to make the system change mid shoe even in my practice. I haven't been overly successful doing that yet. I sometimes feel like I'm overthinking it and being too mechanical. Since godsend indicated that shoes #1 and #3 were at the same table and shoe #1 was a good OTB4L I see that you started shoe #3 the same way, and then making the switch to F2 when the Player side became dominant seems easy in hindsight, I just don't know if I'd have caught it that soon.
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shoe #1
p161241131
p14121111215
p1311262211
b111113
OK, i walked in at play 9 and started and play 12 at otb4l m3 and it lasted until play 32 where i lost my first 3bet, i go otr winning the 4bet so i go to otb4l m2 and m2 lasted me the rest of the shoe until play 61 where i utilized the half decade rule and quit at 21 units!!
I played the shoe out for practice. Didn't get to +21 at play 61, I only got to +18, but still a good shoe. If I'd have played with the method of starting after watching 4 events, I'd have gotten in on play 11 and increased my total by +1unit. Thanks for the practice shoe.
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I meant SS "Banker" not Player. I really wish I was able to edit my posts.
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Hi gman72
No I started with S40 M3. If i don't have other records my initial default mode is M3 on either S40 and OTB
BR
K
I see, sorry, just ignore my comment. I was following what Ellis has explained is his default in S40, which is M2.
I had a really difficult time with that shoe, because I always try to start the shoes on here using OTB4LM3 at play 2 assuming I starting to play a new shoe blind. The starting 5ZZ just killed that at play #4 down -6, so I'm stopped out quick. If started S40M2 I can move along ok until the second column and then the streak just kills it. The shoe is really SS Player starting in the second column just not sure when my trigger would have been to switch to F or even if I'd have lasted long enough to make the switch.
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kkriats,
I think you may have made a mistake at play #12. You are playing S40 M2, so after the 2 bet loss on Player at play #11 you would go OTR at play #12 with a 3 bet on Banker and that would have lost putting your score at -1 at play #12 with a 4 bet on Banker on play #13 going back to S40 and that would have lost putting you down -5 facing a 5 bet that you wouldn't have made. So you get to the same problem Ellis explained already just a few plays sooner I think. Any one else see that?
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Well gman, this is an easy OTB4L shoe and you are going to win it no matter what. But look at your play #10.
Tanpohh if I were to critique gman's play at this point I'd say he hasn't been a member much longer than you have. He still makes too many mistakes. But he has come up through the ranks quickly and is well on his way to being a formidable Casino player. He will certainly get their attention!
At this point gman is an excellent example of how forgiving NOR is. Ha, but that is not what we are trying to show you. We are trying to show you how good NOR is when played flawlessly. But gman is certainly getting their quickly. And he is the type of player who learns through his mistakes. Just a little more time and a little more practice, he will be playing flawlessly. He's almost there already.
Dang, I hate making those dumb mistakes, and the accountant in me really hates it when I make mistakes with my numbers. I'm moving too fast I think. I need to slow it down just a bit to make sure each play is correct.
And no Tanpohh, I have not played live yet with NOR. I've certainly played a lot in the casinos, just not following NOR. I'm posting on here in my attempt to learn as much as I can and get feedback on how I'm doing, which as you can see Ellis is correct, I still need to do some more practice. But I do appreciate the constructive criticism, I believe most people learn a lot more from their mistakes.
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Hey dreamer, here's my 2 cents. I would have started in the blind at play #2 using OTB4LM3 with a U1D2 progression (just realized I started at play #3 by mistake, no worries though, scores the same). I only use M3 & M2, not worrying with M1 just yet. This plays out very nicely to a +21 units. I may have been out after play #44 because not sure if I'd have made the 4 bet at play #45 that would have taken me below +10, but you never know.
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Bac, here's how I approached it. Not knowing any additional information so playing blind, I started at play #2 using OTB4LM3 with the U1D2 progression as per NOR+. I'm only playing M3 & M2 for now, so not looking for an M1 situation. It starts out great and stays good through the first two columns, but the ZZ's in the 3rd col takes it downhill. I'd have been out for sure after play #44 to preserve a winning shoe(+5), but would be disappointed I was down from a high of +15 at the end of 2nd col.
On my scorecard at the bottom I rewrote your shoe with the standard convention.
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The second shoe your bet at play 50 should have been 2.
QUOTE]
For anyone following along, that was a mistake at play #30 in the second shoe. The bet should have been a 2 not a 1. Ellis, thanks for reviewing the shoes.
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gman, I started the first shoe OTB4L so I won the first bet.
The second shoe your bet at play 50 should have been 2.
That puts us square for those 2.
Oops! Both of those were dumb mistakes by me. The plus side, I only made 2 small mistakes.
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Here are Shoes #1,2,3 played out on the scorecard. I seem to off by 1 unit on each shoe in relation to the play narration by Ellis. Not sure where I'm going slightly wrong from his play, but I believe I am close. Hope this helps others see the play, it sure helps me to practice these shoes out.
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Guys, I'm thinking that in both S40 and OTB4L that whenever we win our OTR bets but then lose our first ATR bet (sorta rare) that should automatically throw us into Mode 1. That way we are on off on off a long run until it ends. Gets our bets down low real quick and keeps them low. Not that we see that many 9+s but that way we make some money on the darn things rather than break even. Plus we retain our advantage of winning our ATR bet half the time when the run ends. What do you think? I sorta like it. In this case it would have improved my score by one unit.
This was great piece of information stuck in the middle of the last post by Ellis. I just wanted to stick it out here on its own to emphasize. I'm still only focusing on M2/M3 but when I'm ready to incorporate M1 into my play, these are the tips I want to study. (It's going in the binder).
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The reason I was intrigued by your shoes is all 3 are high in 1's. At first glance I was wondering if you had found an S40 casino. But on closer examination I noted your 2nd shoe does not become high in 1s until late in the shoe. The OR count in the 2nd shoe keeps hitting 0 plus it starts with OTB4L favorable events and is therefore definitely an OTB4L shoe. So I started it OTB4L M3. I didn't bother with Mode 1 because the shoe is so choppy. I played the 3rd bet rule on all 3 shoes.
The other two both start with 111, a definite S40 giveaway so I started them S40 M2 as is my custom. In all 3 I played the first ST and ZZ runs the standard way and then went by history.
I began all 3 shoes at play 2. You may or may not have been able to do this depending on how much you knew about the table before you began recording the shoes.
Recognize that all 3 are only partial shoes. I can't tell if you quit early or started recording late.
I played them both U1D2 and U1D1M2.The scores were +22/+31; +16/+30; and +13/+19 in only 27 plays.
This thread is a little old, but I stumbled across it looking for sample shoes and decided to play them out. I played out Shoe #2 from the original post, below is my scorecard.
P11336213
P24112121411
B221221111131
I was not able to exactly replicate Ellis' +16 using OTB4LM3 with U1D2, but I got to +17 units by the last play. I don't think it would have played out that way live, with the going negative at play 29, probably would not have made the 4 bet at play 28 and just settled with a +5. If anyone has some time, could you critique my play and see if you see any problems. Any constructive criticism I'm sure would be helpful to all in learning proper play.
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Adding Ellis' post #3 in this thread to my binder. Just another great post explaining the modes. Thanks.
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The last bet of the shoe should be OTR since you are in Mode 2.
Quick ?. I didn't make the second bet OTR in M2 on the last bet at play 73 only because of what happened last time I went OTR in M2 at plays 63 & 64 and the second OTR bet lost. Was this a mistake? Am I misapplying the proper play?
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Here is how I played out the shoe for reference.
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I would typically look for four events before starting an unknown shoe. No magic to that number of events -- it has just worked pretty good for me. So in this shoe I would see the 2,3,1 start, and after the fourth circle of the 6iar, I would start F (SS player). I would not wait for the completion of that fourth event as once it went to 4iar it was the longest streak it what was starting to look like a streak, or SS shoe.
If you play F3 U1D2 to the end, you get +15 units. In real life I would not have gotten that far. Things move along VERY smoothly and reach +14 at hand #31. At that point I would use half-decade cash management to put a trailing stop on what is already a highly successful shoe. So I would exit the shoe at hand #33 at +11 units. My best success comes when capitalizing on the stong bias in a shoe and letting the trailing stop decide when to take profits.
I like your approach on watching the first four events. I may go back and try that on some sample shoes and see if I could have found a better method and/or mode to start a shoe.
I followed your approach on this shoe and was easily able to replicate your results, but my question is about switching to M2. At play #34 you lose your 3rd bet in M3, switch sides and lose the 4B so go back to the other side and lose the 5P but then win the P6,4,2,1 ending col 2 at +12. Here's where the problems start, after play #35 shouldn't you be in M2 and if so when playing out the 3rd col, you would have to switch sides at #45 and that's when everything goes downhill quick. Did I miss something here?
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Wow, that was a tough shoe Chief. I tried several different ways to attack it using an U1D2 progression, starting play 2 with OTBLM3 didn't get anywhere, I stopped out before the end of 1st col. Tried switching to S40 after assuming I'd watch a few more plays and around play 26 started S40M2 and got to +12 by end of shoe, but not sure if I'd have done that in live play. Tried assuming I didn't jump in till watching the 1st col play out and starting OTBLM3 at top of 2nd col, but got stopped out after about 12 plays in. Tried same assumption but going F3 after watching Players side go 14/6 in 1st col, but got stopped out before end of column. One method did work but was clearly chosen because I could see the whole shoe. Started the shoe at play 2 playing F3 betting the player SS. This ended the shoe +22 and I never went negative except the very first play. Obviously never would have started this way unless prior shoe(s) were biased SS to player. Anyway, that's what I found playing out the shoe, curious what other found playing it.
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Typo: I meant only playing M3 and M2 for right now.
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Brendan, not sure I see the problem with this last shoe. I played it assuming in the blind, started at play 2 with OTBL M3 using U1D2. That play 2 was the only one I went negative. Ended 1st col up+6, and ended 2nd col up+19. By play 47 I had hit +20 for the third time and probably would have got out. Played it on out and didn't change to mode 2 until play 55 after losing 3rd ST bet at 53 and the one 4OTR bet at 54. Went OTR at 63 in M2 and lost the second OTR bet at 64. Went OTR M2 again at 72 made the first OTR bet but not the second at the last play and ended +14. (Never looked for M1 since I'm only playing M3 and M1 for now). Any see it any different.
Players in Tunica MS area
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
I just tried to replay the shoe and now I am completely confused. I hate to admit this, but I don't think I understand how to properly play a simple F shoe. I don't think I understand the modes as they apply to an F shoe. Would someone who understands be willing to play out and post the scorecard of the shoe #3 in question. If possible would you start playing the shoe in F2 at play 15 so I can compare to what I did. Thanks.
Just when I thought I was getting the hang of things, boom, there goes my confidence. And I was planning a casino trip this weekend. Now I may rethink that, or at least whether I play bac or not.