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Casinos win when you play basic strategy!


Guest CarlosM

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Guest CarlosM

Yes! They know that the secret to their success is that most players play basic strategy or various forms of it. Like, you should ALWAYS split Aces and eights. You should ALWAYS double down when you have a 10 or 11 if her up card is less than 10. When the dealer has a low up card and you are stiff, you should ALWAYS stand. When the dealer has a high up card, you should ALWAYS hit. If you follow that like the books tell you or the basic strategy chart tells you, you will guarentee the casinos success! Ever notice when a player is new to the game and is faced with a hand that he is not sure of what to do? They ask the dealer. Then the pit boss behind him tells you the "CORRECT" play. Even the players yell and agree. I have even heard many times the pit boss tell that confused player, "I ALWAYS go by what basic strategy chart says. It's the way I ALWAYS play on my days off" Yeah right! Most likely he doesn't play the game on his days off. He will not tell you what you NEED to do to take the casinos money. One of the biggest tip offs that basic strategy is not the BEST way to play from a players stand point is, when you see at any casino, when they have a dealer with a micro-phone giving FREE lessons on the best way to play blackjack. The method they teach you is basic strategy. Which is the best way for them to BEAT YOU!

On every hand, let's talk stiff hands, there are a couple or few ways to deal with that hand. Hit or stand, or hit twice, etc.... You can try this at home. Play basic strategy every hand as you do anyways, if you lost, play with that hand some more. See if you stood, would you have won, or maybee you stood and take a hit and see. Or lets say you did hit but, took only one hit and stood. See what would have happened if yiu took a second hit. Or a third, fourth hit. Maybee 5 or 6 hits it would of taken to win that hand. Just for fun, at home do this, even if basic strategy says not. Then do a full shoe of this. Compare that to playing the whole shoe basic strategy. You will see why basic strategy is the best way for you to play for them to take your money! What if you could know before hand, what your next hit card will be? How amazing would that be? Or if you could know the dealers hole card? You could play perfect, the best blackjack that the casinos hope you don't play!

The books tell you to ALWAYS play basic strategy because that is the BEST WAY to play when the cards are random.So, they are trying to tell you that the cards are ALWAYS random. That to me is the only reason it makes sense to ALWAYS use basic strategy if the cards are ALWAYS random. If they are not random or atleast mostly random then it makes no sense to ALWAYS play basic strategy. Oh no! Now we have a contradiction. The truth! The cards are not ALWAYS random. They are not even mostly random. So, now it makes no sense to ALWAYS play basic strategy. It does actually makes most sense to play basic strategy sometimes. Not, always or mostly.

The other part to the casinos success is making sure the cards stay non random by the shuffles and wash. You think they are shuffling the cards thoroughly? They are not! They want to maintain the cards non random every shoe. How? By shuffling very little. Almost the same as not shuffling at all. Not shuffling at all is the best way to insure the cards stay the same. They have to shuffle to make you beleive the game is fair. Here is an experiment. Use 6 or 8 decks of cards. Purposely take all the Tens or even nines and TENS all in one section. The rest of the shoe is lows and neutrals. You can put this chunk of all TENS and/or highs on top of that, at the bottom, in the middle, etc.... Now, just take 3/4 deck or even 1 deck picks in each hand, shuffle it together fast, not perfectly shuffling or riffling. Keep taking 1 deck picks in each hand, one from stak A (left) and one deck from stack B (right) till you have your complete 6 or 8 decks. But, before you do all of this, only on the chunk with all Tens and/or highs, take a marker and at the edges of these cards, draw a diaganol line from top left to bottom right. After that shuffle you will be suprised to see that diagonal is pretty much intact or at worst mostly still intact. II have only mentioned less than 5% of everything I know. No book in any library, book store, casino gift store, any where on the internet, will they tell you what I just told you in this post. And I only told you about 1% of EVRYTHING there is to know to actually beat them! You can't expect to spend $10 or even $20 or $30 on a book and hope to learn all this. To me, knowing all this is worth paying $1,000 or even thousands. Think about this. If someone was selling a machine or a program that could predict the winning number for the lottery every week, would that be worth paying thousands of dollars for? For sure! The method I talk about is called NBJ. Evrything you need is in the NBJ manual for just a couple hundred dollars, not thousands of dollars which is what I think it is worth. Read, re read it over and over. Each reading will put something new in your mind. After enough readings, you will have it all in your head. Then practice all this at home, over and over. Then once you have mastered that, graduate to the last level which is WCB. That stands for World Class Blackjack. That is also only a couple hundred dollars. You also get the best audio tapes in blackjack history. Also supplement newsletters for further support. And last, you will have on going support with Ellis Clifton Davis who wrote and created all this. Or you can even get ongoing support in the private members blackjack forum on here. You can also e mail me or phone me personally. I love this stuff forever! I love talking about it. I love helping. Nothing makes me feel better. Blackjack is truly my full love! If anyone has ANY questions, get back to me. I have been at this for 7 years. My professor, Ellis has been at this for well over a quarter of a century. Also, check out my post on "Trip Report". My latest casino killing!

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Guest CarlosM

Does anyone have any stories about their personal experiences on their play in the casino using basic strategy? Or even card counting? Overal in a span of 1 year, are you ahead or behind in money? Why are there SO MANY books and videos and sites on teaching card counting? And very cheap! Why is it that when you see a television documentary about a card counter who took the casinos down, took place in the 70's and not now? People who played basic strategy and card counted in the 60's and 70's did very, very well. After that, you don't hear about card counters winning like that! Even if card counting worked today like it used to back then, how much does it help you? For instance, you are near the end of the shoe and near the cut card and have the highest plus count you've seen in that shoe and throghout the shoe it was mostly plus count and maybe once or twice you saw avery low minus count, which means not many highs or TENS came out. So, now at the end with this cery high plus count, you know the highs are going to come out in a big batch. But, do you know if those highs are behind the cut off card? If it is, there goes your advantage and all that hard work. Or lets say it's not behind the cut card. So, now you will get to see all these highs. Great! But, how great is it? You don't know what you will get! you could get a first card TEN, and the dealer gets a first card TEN. Your second card lets say is a 9. Nice! You satand with a pat hard 19. But, lets say the dealer gets a second card TEN. Oh no! Now, she has a 20 pat. You lose! All this card counting and work is not bad if the highs are not behind the cut card and also when they come, as long as you mostly get pat hands that beat the dealers pat hands. Well, card counting has no way of doing that. Even if it does propperly allign, it can change easily by 1 or more players leaving or entering. Yes, the highs will still come but, it changes what 2 cards you get now! All of this does not sound very reliable to me. I would NEVER play blackjack unless I know the way I play is very reliable and more importantly, CONSISTANTLY reliable. Actually, there is such a way and it is the ONLY way. Ask, and I will tell you more about it.

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You have some very good points Carlos. Here's some more: I suspect that folks would like to hear how we get our hands won rate up so high. Or the reverse, why, after all that training and practice, is the basic strategy/card counter's hands won rate so low?

Carlos is right. Some of the difference in hand's won rate does come from the few plays we play differently from basic strategy. But you can't get from 38% to 52% hands won rate by changing a few plays. In fact, card play alone will get you up to about 43 - 45 %. Good, but not good enough.

Card counters are taught that there is no difference from one BJ game to another. That where you sit at the table makes no difference. That the number of players in the game makes no difference. That the dealer breaks at 28% in all games. That insurance is virtually always a bad bet. That splitting is good. That it is best to always assume that the dealer has a ten in the hole. That it doesn't matter when you play as long as you avoid playing new cards. That the stakes make no difference. They are taught, and I quote word for word, that it doesn't matter whether you win or lose as long as you make the correct play. And many, many other myths we could fill pages with. None of these basic beliefs of the card counter are true.

None of the above has any basis in fact in today's BJ game. The major reason card counters can't get their hand's won rate above 38% is that they aren't taught a thing about game types. To them, all games are the same. When they walk into a casino their only question is what are the stakes? Then they sit down and bet according to the count which is close to meaningless. The object isn't to bet high when the count is high as they do. The object is to bet high when the tens are coming out, regardless of the count, like we do.

For instance, take a game where the tens start coming out right at the top of the shoe. This is not uncommon. This happens half the time. It's purely a function of where the cut card was placed by a player who happened to have the biggest bet out. Just as many games start with a negative count as start with a positive count. What does our great card counter do? He just sits there and bets minimum. He is taught to WAIT FOR A POSITIVE COUNT. Meanwhile the NBJ player is RAKING IN THE DOUGH! The tens are falling now! BET! You have the advantage right now! You will likely not get it again this shoe. Does this give you some idea of how Mad Dog is shooting for and making $10,000 a day? Card Counters can't do that! They just sit there making minimum bets and the whole game goes right over their heads. Another missed opportunity. Rare? NO! Again, this happens half the time.

Look, there are FIRST BASE games and there are THIRD BASE games and there are games you should not play at all under any circumstances. Those are basically the three game types. The NBJ player gets from 43% to 52% hands won rate by knowing the difference. He KNOWS when to play first and he KNOWS when to play third and he KNOWS when not to play at all. He picks the cream of the crop! Or he doesn't play.

Yep, Carlos is up $170,000 in 3 trips. But here's what you don't know. It wasn't 3 trips, it was really 6 trips. Carlos doesn't tell you about the 3 trips where he didn't play at all. Yep, ten grand burning a hole in his pocket but he didn't play. Why? Because he didn't see the NBJ conditions we absolutely require before we bet our hard earned money. That's why! Or, you could be like the card counter. Play anyway! And LOSE! That is why the card counter is condemned to 38%. He doesn't know how to pick and choose the right games and play the right system from the right seat. We DO! This is why thousands of card counters have swiched to NBJ but no NBJ Player has ever switched to card counting.

Now comes what I think is the most important thing Carlos left out:

CURRENT NBJ CONDITIONS!

Current NBJ conditions are the best by a mile of any conditions I've seen in 25 years. Mad Dog, how many times have you gone to the casino lately and NOT PLAYED. I'll bet good money here and now that you play virtually EVERY TIME YOU GO. Why, because right now is the best and most consistent NBJ conditions we've ever seen. By a mile!

When I played full time, I actually played less than half the times I went. NOW, NBJ players can play virtually every time they go including Saturday nights. I learned to NEVER play on Friday or Saturday nights. NOW, we find great NBJ conditions even then! NBJ has never been stronger. NOW is the best time to play NBJ of any time in history. I'm personally going back to playing full time myself. I don't want to miss this best opportunity of all time. Who knows how long it will last?

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Guest CarlosM

Hi Ellis! When do you think would be a good time for us to get together and play your casinos up there? Or if better, we can play together in Vegas after the seminar. Let me know either way. I don't just want to go in and win a little or a lot. I want to walk in and out and totally rape them! Sorry for the term. Hey, they have been raping everyone for decades.

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