New Rules from Ellis 12-07-5 with sample games

[Keith Smith]

The winning response to today’s random Baccarat games:

E. Clifton Davis’

All Out War

The only method that beats today’s random shoes

What we are up against today: In the ‘80’s and ‘90’s Casino Baccarat shoes often contained certain discernable trends exploitable by knowledgeable system developers and trend players. These trends were created either accidentally or purposefully by casino card prep procedures. All Baccarat systems to date attempt to exploit trends. Some past systems were successful to some degree. However, in their constant quest to optimize profits, casinos identified this weakness and promptly corrected it. Through their use of random shuffle machines and random card prep procedures, casino Baccarat shoes today are largely trendless and, for all practical purposes, random, rendering all systems to date obsolete.

There are many ways I can prove this to you but for now, let me ask you just one question: Whatever system you are playing right now, how’s it been working for you lately? Need I ask more?

Identifying the task: The first step toward any solution is to identify the problem. Pure and simple: Beat random shoes. That’s the name of the game today. Mathematicians argue amongst themselves on just about everything. But they all agree on one thing: random numbers cannot be beat. They even joke about it with comments like: ”That’s as stupid as trying to beat random numbers.” But is Baccarat truly random? I’m convinced that today, the selection between Bank and Player is, for all practical purposes, random. However, we are only looking at a slice of true random. To be true random, the game would need to have infinite selection. But it only has two, thank you very much. Either P wins or B wins. There is no C, D , and F possibilities. Only two, P or B. Forget T! If you still bet on ties, now is a good time to stop. I submit to you that the problem of choosing between only two possibilities can be solved by sufficient torque applied randomly. It took me years to discover exactly how to do this. I call it All Out War because that is exactly what it is. No timid system can beat today’s random game.

AOW Overview: We employ the Fibonaci progression because it has proven itself to be the most successful high torque progression ever developed. We marry that prog to net betting. Net betting, a previous creation of mine, has proven itself to be the most effective way of taming high torque progs. Net betting actually increases avg. win size while lowering avg. bet size and vig. This has proven to be an ideal marriage. We apply betting in a virtual random fashion that does not favor Player or Bank or Opposites or Repeats. Or, better said, we favor all of those equally. We fight random with random.

AOW Objective: To play the AOW successfully, it is critically important that you fully understand and appreciate our objective. Our objective is to either win the shoe at about +120 units or break even. All of the rules and all of the cash mgt. are designed to work harmoniously to achieve this objective. And it does, if you play correctly. We can afford to lose a prog IF we start over again at 1 vs. 1 immediately and complete the shoe. In 72 plays, we will end up close to even. The third sample shoe is an example of this. Fortunately, today, most shoes are somewhat longer than 72 plays (not counting ties) increasing your chances of achieving the break even part of our objective.

AOW early statistics: Thanks to Keith, we will soon have proven finite numbers on all aspects of AOW computer tested over thousands of shoes. Until then, I’ll give you the manual test outcomes. Manual testing indicates we will lose 7 progs in 24 shoes or about 1 prog every 3.4 shoes. Also, we will hit our stop loss twice in 24 shoes by hitting multiple losing progs in the same shoe, scoring about -80 in each of those losing shoes. This gives us an average of about +67 units per shoe overall. If these statistics are anywhere near correct, the AOW is the highest scoring system ever created by a country mile. We will know very shortly. Recognize that even if we lost a prog in 9 out of 10 shoes we would still walk away a winner.

What we lose to: We employ an 8 bet prog. Normally an 8 bet prog loses to a certain 8 play pattern. We don’t. The AOW loses to certain 9 play minimum patterns. You will soon note that the 8 play pattern we lose to in one instance, we sail right through the next instance. Therein lies some of our advantage. To lose to a pattern we must hit it wrong. As we test, we will identify losing patterns for informational purposes only.

The importance of playing correctly: Time and time again, we have found that AOW mistakes can be costly. If you miss a switch or fail to note that you have won your two bets, or go back to 1 early, you get into a condition we have come to call wrong footed. This inevitably ends up in losing a prog to a normally non losing pattern. Therefore practicing until you play flawlessly every time is imperative. Practice, practice, practice!

Personal Scorecards: The AOW is difficult enough without the added complication of unfamiliar scorecards. My recommendation is to take our card or the card of your choice to a copy shop (if you do not have a copier) and have plenty of copies made on heavy gage light colored paper that you have checked for its ability to take your writing and erasures. Make sure you have sufficient room to play a full shoe on the same side of the same card without having to turn the card over or resort to two cards.

Scorecard legibility: As you play, make your circles as large as possible and try to draw them in horizontal ellipticals as I have on the sample games. We aren’t used to double digit entries on our card, let alone triple digit entries. Write your numbers as large and as clearly as possible. Nothing can ruin your day more than making mistakes because you couldn’t read your own writing.

The importance of conservative play: I have dropped the conservative prog because it lacks the advantage and win rate of the Fibonaci. I would much rather see you play nickels on a dime table in the interest of conservation.

The minimum bankroll requirements listed below are just that, minimum. While 100 units should suffice, Baccarat seems to be the very proof of Murphy’s law. I would much rather see you start with 200 units even if it means starting with nickel play until your Bankroll reaches $2000. Then go to dimes.

Advancing your unit: The same applies to advancing your unit. Many players have learned the hard way that advancing your unit is the most dangerous decision you could make. You get into position to advance your unit because you have won several shoes in a row. You are overdue to lose. However, the AOW presents opportunities to advance your unit quicker than any other system. If you choose to do this, don’t do it until you have 200 units minimum of the higher denomination.

Cash mgt. explanation: Once you have successfully completed your first shoe without a prog loss, cash mgt. is no longer much of a factor. Therefore, our cash mgt. is designed to get you to that point. The reason we hold off on the 55 bet until play 20 is because when you lose a prog in the first col. you are at your most vulnerable to lose two progs in the same shoe. You are also at your most vulnerable to hit your stop loss. The hold off on the 55 bet is an attempt to get you through this calamity with enough chips to continue play. Additional computer testing will pinpoint the optimum play to initially deploy your 55 with minimum exposure.

Casino heat: There is no question that the AOW will draw more attention than any system we have ever played. It will draw attention from the other players as well as casino personnel. Be alert to this. The last thing you want is to be asked to leave. Leave on your own before you are asked to. There are other casinos and other days. Now, we are ready for the AOW rules. Learn them well and practice as much as possible. When you have everything down pat practice until you can play automatically and confidently.

AOW Rules

12/07/05

1. Scorecard: Prepare your scorecard in ECD Bac fashion:

4 columns, 20 plays long, 5 lanes per column. Head the first two lanes P and B. The remaining 3 lanes are for your running score. The two extra score lanes are for future use should you want to compare progressions, systems, or variations. At each play, make your P and B entries according to the rules below. Circle the side that wins and enter your running score. See sample games.

2. Progression: AOW: 1 3 5 8 13 21 34 55

3. Betting: The AOW utilizes the ECD Bac net betting strategy:

Starting on the first play at 1 vs. 1, start your progression down both sides. Bet up 1 rung when you lose and down 1 rung when you win. Each play will have a P and B entry. Subtract the low bet from the high bet and table bet the difference on the high side. When the two entries are the same, we have no table bet that play.

4. Mandatory 3: The 1 bet, win or lose is ALWAYS followed by the 3. Accordingly, the first two plays are always 1vs.1 and 3 vs.3.

Our first table bet is always at play 3.

5. Objective: The objective of each progression is to win 2 bets either in a row or separated by 1 loss. (Win-Lose-Win) Once accomplished, that prog goes back to 1 and starts over.

6. Inserting the 2: Since we must have room for the two winning bets without decreasing to 1, whenever we lose the 1 and win the 3, we insert the 2. When we win the 2, we have won our 2 bets so we go to 1. When we lose the 2 we do not bet 3 again. We skip up to 5. If we win, that’s our two bet win so we go back to 1.

7. The lose 2 win 1 rule: Whenever we lose 2 bets (only 2) and then win, and that winning bet is 13 or higher, we take the 3 bet series over again. (we go down 2 instead of 1). As a conservative measure, once you are in the 3rd and 4th columns, I recommend that you employ this rule at the winning 8 bet level. This conservative measure protects us from the terrible threes, BBB PPP BBB PPP.

8. Switching on winning 1’s: The progressions do not continue betting straight down. This would cause us to lose shoes that strongly favor one side or the other. To keep our progressions relatively even and to keep our high bets to a minimum, whenever we win a 1 bet, (with the exception of the first play of the game) the resulting 3 bet goes on the other side. The other progression accommodates by also switching sides. The two progressions remain on the switched side until the next winning 1. Recognize that the win 2 objective follows its progression. Example: We win

a 1 bet on Player. The resulting 3 bet goes on Bank. If we win that 3 bet we have satisfied our 2 bet objective so that progression goes back to 1, on Bank. If we win that 1 bet we would switch again. If we lose the 1 bet the 3 goes straight down. You may want to color code your two progs on your first couple of practice shoes.

Cash mgt. : Don’t go passed the 34 in the first 19 plays. At, and including play 20, play the whole prog. Should you lose the whole prog, start over at 1vs 1. This way the AOW tends to break even when it loses a prog. The only way we can lose is to lose multiple progs in the same shoe. This is rare about 1 shoe in 12.

Overall stop loss: However rare, since it is possible to lose multiple progs in the same shoe, do not make a bet that could take you beyond -100. This makes your worst case scenario somewhere around -80. Not bad, since your avg winning shoe is about +120.

Minimum bankroll required: 100 units min.

Note: The stronger your starting bankroll position is, the better your odds of success. We seldom lose a session after winning our first shoe.

Practice: It is imperative to practice beforehand at the stakes you intend to play. We get into some high bets that could be just about anything. You must automatically know the correct number of chips to bet and on which side to bet them.

Playing $5 chips on a $10 table : For low bankroll concerns and perhaps for your first casino game of the day (until you get your Baccarat brain in gear) consider playing $5 units on a $10 min. table. Since 1 bets are very rare simply treat 1 bets the same as a no bet. Once you have reached $2000, you can elect to advance to $10 units, but not before then.

Max Unit: I would think twice about going higher than $25 units. You now have the best Baccarat system of all time. The LAST thing you want to do is get ejected.

Tip: Should you find yourself at a consistently choppy table, it is a good idea to drop the every other bet rule and always go for 2 consecutive wins. This makes the system extremely strong in chop but at the expense of streak strength.

Sample games: The two sample games below are recent Las Vegas games. The same two sample games are shown for both progs for comparison purposes.

Sample games: AOW

Sample game #1

http://beatthecasino.com/aow/sample_game_1.jpg

Sample game #2

http://beatthecasino.com/aow/sample_game_2.jpg

Sample game #3 (single prog loss)

http://beatthecasino.com/aow/sample_game_3.jpg

Note the oddness of this shoe: Super chop to super streak. Those 3 scores in the wrong col. in col. 2 was a mistake. The phone rang.

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[ECD]

I don't know yet if the cash mgt I posted in the rules is our best option. Another good option is say something like: Once you pass play 30, don't make a bet that could take you below 0. Start over.instead. this second option would lose far less progs but it will also lower our average win. Once Keith gets our automated game player running correct to the rules we can plug these two options in or any others we think of and see which works out best over 1000 shoes or so.

[Guest]

Just finished reading this and find it quite interesting ..... Any way to get the examples posted again ... they seem to be lost in cyber space....

Thanks in advance.... mike....

[pbal]

None of the Sample_games_.jpg's will display.