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Some questions about the blackjack tips


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All of these are from "E. Clifton Davis's 10 BJ Tips"

1. Play New Cards! Yeah, I know, every BJ book in the world says stay away from new cards for 2 hours. And it was true 20 years ago. You are not playing yesteryears cards. You’re playing today’s cards. Today, your biggest BJ enemy is dealer favorable biases. New cards have no bias. They are the best cards you will see all day. Now you know my biggest secret how I beat A.C. every day for 3 years of full time play. I played new cards almost exclusively.

What are "new cards"? Does that mean when the casino opens up a new pack of cards? cause i have never seen this.

3. How many players are in the game? The more players in the game the more the odds favor the casino. Your best game is head to head. You can’t beat a 7 player game. You might as well just give them the money!

I have heard this in other places. Why do your odds go down with more players?

6. Know how to insure! When the card before the dealer’s hole card was a ten, insure! You will be right more than half the time and it pays 2 to 1. That one tip is worth thousands and nobody knows it.

What the hell? How can you base the dealer's hole card on the previous card? How does the card before it have ANY effect on the fact that there is a 4/13 chance that the card underneath is a 10?

7. Don’t split! You don’t have a good hand. You’ve got a terrible hand. Why would you want to bet twice as much money on it? Splits lose overall.

Is this a joke? Basic strategy includes plenty of splits. It makes a shitload more sense to split 2 8's againsts a 6 and change your 8s into 18s than just keep (or hit and bust) a 16.

8. Don’t Count! Yeah, yeah, I know what you’ve heard. Look, it doesn’t win today. Today, casinos know exactly how to beat counters. They want you to count.

Am i the only one that doesn't buy this for one second? Counting creates an edge over the casino over thousands of hands that leads to winning. Counting is not outdated.

9. Don’t play with chicken hitters! Don’t complain, just leave. Chicken hitters give the game to the dealer. Might as well tie a bow on it.

I HATE when people complain about what other people do.

WHO CARES? Hypothetically. The Dealer has a 16 and the last player at the table has a 16. The player decides to hit... He gets a 10 and busts and gives the dealer a 5. THERE IS THE EXACT SAME chance that he hits and the second card is a 10.

10. Hit when LOWS are running, Stand when HIGHS are running. Look, the dealer can’t break on low cards. She breaks on high cards.

Running? Does this go by the logic that high cards stick together in a deck and lows stick together? Are you kidding me?

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I'll try to answer your questions reset but I'm not going to argue with you. You seem to have already closed your mind to everything. NBJ is for thinking

people with open minds.

Consider that those $10 BJ books just might be wrong since virtually everybody plays some form of Basic Strategy and thousands count cards yet casinos win at their highest rate of all time at 15% of the drop or better. It was only 6% when those books were written. When you can play AC full time for three years W/O a losing day as I have THEN I'll listen to your arguements

Some questions about the blackjack tips

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All of these are from "E. Clifton Davis's 10 BJ Tips"

Quote:

1. Play New Cards! Yeah, I know, every BJ book in the world says stay away from new cards for 2 hours. And it was true 20 years ago. You are not playing yesteryears cards. You’re playing today’s cards. Today, your biggest BJ enemy is dealer favorable biases. New cards have no bias. They are the best cards you will see all day. Now you know my biggest secret how I beat A.C. every day for 3 years of full time play. I played new cards almost exclusively.

Q What are "new cards"? Does that mean when the casino opens up a new pack of cards? cause i have never seen this.

A Casinos start with new cards every morning. The casino's new card prep routine usually makes these the most random cards you'll see all day. Basic Strategy (BS) was designed for random cards. BS actually beats Random cards. But the casino's card pick up routine is designed to destroy randomness and and therefore defeat BS. That is precisely why the dealer is instructed to pick up the break hands first, then the non break hands. Break cards are mostly lows with the break card 6 or more. Non break cards are mostly high cards, often all tens. This is how the cards get clumped. The shuffle is designed to preserve and even enhance clumping whether by machine or by hand. That is how the casinos improved their profits from 6% to 15%. Look it up! Casinos by law must publish this information and it is available on your computer.

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3. How many players are in the game? The more players in the game the more the odds favor the casino. Your best game is head to head. You can’t beat a 7 player game. You might as well just give them the money!

Q I have heard this in other places. Why do your odds go down with more players?

A. They don't just go down, they vanish! Think about it. The more players in the game the bigger clumps of break and nonbreak cards clumping them even more. The more players there are and the longer the cards are played the more they clump and the more BS loses. Casinos are a lot smarter than you think. No $10 book is going to beat them.

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6. Know how to insure! When the card before the dealer’s hole card was a ten, insure! You will be right more than half the time and it pays 2 to 1. That one tip is worth thousands and nobody knows it.

Q What the hell? How can you base the dealer's hole card on the previous card? How does the card before it have ANY effect on the fact that there is a 4/13 chance that the card underneath is a 10?

A The more the cards are clumped the more highs follow highs and lows follow lows. In a highly clumped game I will often insure the whole table. I was once ejected from the high stakes mezzanine room at the old Claridge in A C for getting every insurance bet right for 5 straight hours. Every time I bet it she had BJ and every time I didn't, she didn't. Of course some of that was luck but most of it had nothing to do with luck. They ejected me saying that somehow I obviously could see the hole card. I wasn't cheating, I was merely using THEIR cheating to my advantage which is what NBJ is all about.

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7. Don’t split! You don’t have a good hand. You’ve got a terrible hand. Why would you want to bet twice as much money on it? Splits lose overall.

Q Is this a joke? Basic strategy includes plenty of splits. It makes a shitload more sense to split 2 8's againsts a 6 and change your 8s into 18s than just keep (or hit and bust) a 16.

A That's only one of the reasons BS loses. THINK about it. If BS won the casinos would have been out of business a long time ago rather than tripling their profits on naive players. Splitting 8s is often stupid. You are hoping for two 18s. The dealer's avg. hand is 19.2. Do the math! Remember you only get 1 card each hand. What if you get 6s. What if the dealer's hole card is a 5. Still want to split?

Before I wrote NBJ I had a team of Engineers conduct a 2 year study in AC. Splits was one of the most surprising outcomes. Players lost on splits overall. THINK about it. If casinos lost on splits would they offer the bet? Casinos are NOT stupid. They do NOTHING that will hurt their profits and EVERYTHING that will help their profits. Why do you think they offer those same $10 books in their gift shops? Why do they give out BS cards to novice players?

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8. Don’t Count! Yeah, yeah, I know what you’ve heard. Look, it doesn’t win today. Today, casinos know exactly how to beat counters. They want you to count.

Am i the only one that doesn't buy this for one second? Counting creates an edge over the casino over thousands of hands that leads to winning. Counting is not outdated.

Yes, you are the only one that doesn't buy this. Counting started losing when casinos started increasing the number of decks along with introducing the cut off card. That is PRECISELY WHY they increased the number of decks. Counters hope to gain a half % advantage. That won't even pay your gas to get to the casino. Those guys that wrote those books, they aren't professional players, they are professional book sellers. I've never seen a single one of them in a real casino. Oh, Except Kenny Uston. He played AC the same years I did. The difference was I won everyday and he lost every day and quit the game entirely when he finally figured out that card counting doesn't work. NBJ players estimate their advantage at 6 to 15% depending on experience. Now THAT will pay for your gas!

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9. Don’t play with chicken hitters! Don’t complain, just leave. Chicken hitters give the game to the dealer. Might as well tie a bow on it.

I HATE when people complain about what other people do.

WHO CARES? Hypothetically. The Dealer has a 16 and the last player at the table has a 16. The player decides to hit... He gets a 10 and busts and gives the dealer a 5. THERE IS THE EXACT SAME chance that he hits and the second card is a 10.

YOU care, or at least you should. The dealer thrives on low cards. Chicken hitters don't take their fair share of lows out of the game. They leave them in the game for the dealer. That's how the dealer keeps getting those impossible 5 and 6 card hands. How does the dealer beat you? She HITS. When lows are running the dealer CAN't break. NEITHER CAN YOU! Why are you sitting their with 14 betting the dealer will break. That is exactly what you are doing when you stand stiff. You are betting the dealer will break. The dealer breaks no where near the random card 28%. You've probably NEVER seen a dealer break 28%. Half that is far more realistic. Throw that stupid book away. BTW that is ANOTHER way you know the cards aren't random. If they were she WOULD break 28%. But she NEVER does!

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10. Hit when LOWS are running, Stand when HIGHS are running. Look, the dealer can’t break on low cards. She breaks on high cards.

Q Running? Does this go by the logic that high cards stick together in a deck and lows stick together? Are you kidding me?

A In 8 deck you will sometimes see as many as 20 tens in a row but 6 deck is usually what we call dirty clumps. Go by the preponderance. Are the cards mostly high or mostly low or random. If random play BS. That is exactly what it is designed for. If mostly high favor standing, if mostly low favor hitting. Preserve high cards for the dealer. That is what breaks her. She CAN'T break on lows so why bet that she will. THINK!

You seem to be completely taken in by $10 books and old wives tales. But I am hoping that some of this will click with you.

BTW, any card counter will tell you that beating AC daily for 3 years is totally impossible. And they are absolutely right! THEY can't!

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wow that's something i have never heard before.. the clumping idea is really interesting. i don't understand exactly how the cards can clump with the dealer shuffling cards so many times (or the machine shuffler).

One reason i think people lose so much to the casino is because a lot of idiots have no idea what they're doing at the table (eg chicken hitters)... they're just people playing for fun, they have no intent of working to win, they just want to have some fun with friends and maybe get lucky... these same idiots are the ones pulling the levers at slot machines, feeding money into the casino.

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Hmmm, Maybe I was too hasty. I'm beginning to think that there is hope for you yet Reset.

I think you probably understand now how the cards get clumped in the discard shoe. But how does that clumping survive the shuffle?

No problem for the casino at all. Canada's Einstein demonstrated that a single deck of box order cards must be shuffled 25 times to achieve random. Less than that and you'll still see remnants of the boxed card clumping. The computer guys say no, 6 times is good enough. I'm a little afraid of what they mean by "good enough". Random is like pregnant. Either they are or they aren't. Random doesn't come in degrees. Basic Strategy is based on pure random. That is why it never works in the long run. Caswinos understand this. They make darn sure you virtually never get random cards.

A MN casino tried to prove me wrong. For a month they picked up all cards in turn whether the player broke or not. They lost their shirt! The BS players killed them.

Had you been around for the advent of shuffle machines you would have witnessed a very strange phenomenon. Casino after casino installed shuffle machines. After a month casino after casino tossed them out. The machines went back to the drawing board. A few months later the whole process repeated and the machines got tossed again and again and again.

See the first machines DID create random cards. The casino saw their bottom line down at the end of the month and tossed the machines out. But the machine designers caught on quickly. The name of the game was NOT create random as they originally thought. The name of the game was preserve clumping so the casinos profit would soar. Today everybody is on the same page. Well, except for the players. But they don't count. No pun intended.

Clumping is here to stay. The casinos can't stay in business without it. Likewise NBJ is here to stay. We can't win without it. NBJ uses the casino's own "orchestration" to beat them. Isn't that ironic?

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that's really crazy, how come i haven't heard about any of this stuff anywhere else? lol

i don't understand exactly how clumping gives the casino an edge though.. i understand how it works, but how does the casino gain (or do they not, it just screws up BS players?)?

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that's really crazy, how come i haven't heard about any of this stuff anywhere else? lol

i don't understand exactly how clumping gives the casino an edge though.. i understand how it works, but how does the casino gain (or do they not, it just screws up BS players?)?

You haven't heard of it because my books NBJ, WCB, and In Search of the Winning Game and my audio and video tapes are not available in book stores. You can only get them here. NBJ alone has sold more than all other BJ books combined. I think we have some sort of package deal going on right now. Push the order button and see. That doesn't commit you to anything. I don't follow the sales, I just teach. But I know that the prices are only a fraction of what they used to be. Yet NBJ is more effective today than ever before. Nearly all BJ instructors now teach some form of NBJ. Very few bother with card counting anymore. NBJ has revolutionized BJ instruction but NBJ is still the best source by far.

Clumping increases the casino's advantage from 0.5% to 15% of the drop. The drop is the money you pay for your chips. Some casinos have reported quarterly earnings as high as 52% of the drop! Since they pay taxes on what they report their accountants use every trick in the book to make their earnings as low as possible. Real earnings are much higher.

Think about it this way. A player walks in a casino with $300 and sits down to a $10 game of Bj on a Sat. night. How long will his $300 last on average? At 0.5% he could play for a week. But how long does he really last? An hour, maybe two. Some won't make it through the first shoe. And many of them are playing close to perfect Basic Strategy. How is this possible?

Because in Basic Strategy every play, all 500, are based on a dealer break rate of 28%. That is more than one out of 4 hands. But how often does she REALLY break on a Sat. night? Once a shoe? Twice a shoe? Or she might not break at all esp. on a Sat night. Why? Because on Sat night the cards have seen more play with more players. The longer the cards are played and the greater the number of players the more the cards clump. And the more the cards clump the less the dealer breaks. Why?

Take 6 decks of cards and artificially clump them to the max. Put all the highs on top AKQJ10,9 and put all the lows on the bottom. Now deal the cards out just you and the dealer, Play perfect basic Strategy. What happens? You get killed. Why? Because the dealer NEVER breaks. She can't break in the high cards because she never hits. But think about it, she can't break in the low cards either. Why? Because you need a high card to break her and there aren't any. Yeah true, a dealer could be unlucky enough to arrive at 16 and draw a 6. How many unlucky dealers do you know? The more the cards are clumped the less the dealer breaks. Casinos have known this and used this against you for 20 years. Basic Straegy players have little chance on Monday morning. They have no chance on Sat night.

Look, even in random cards the game is VERY close. You MUST have that 28% dealer break rate to stand any chance at all. That is why you'll NEVER get it. The casino sees to it.

All these book writers teaching Basic Strategy? They are helping the casino. That's why the casinos sell their books to you. The more perfectly you play Basic Strategy the more perfectly you will lose. Sorry but those are the facts.

So how do you beat them? NBJ! NBJ uses clumping to its advantage. Now don't get me wrong. Some sections of the shoe ARE random. Sometimes Basic Strategy IS the best play. NBJ teaches you when to play basic and when not to. That is key.

Look at it this way. On its BEST day, with random cards BS has a 43% hands won rate. Where are you going with that? You say yeah but I get Blackjacjs! Great, now your odds are 44%. I ask again, where are you going with that?

Well I can split!

BS Splits lose overall!

Well I can insure!

B.S. players get killed on insurance. That's why their books say don't insure. But NBJ players win insurance bets at better than 50% and it pays 2 to 1.

Well I can double down!

Clumping kills BS Doubles. But NBJ players use clumping to double with uncanny accuracy, We double less but we win about 90% of them.

So how does NBJ do it? I'll give you a clue. What is the opposite of "Random"?

Think about it... It's "Predictable" isn't it.

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Yes, NBJ covers the whole approach. WCB automates NBJ by teaching you how to play based on the last 5 cards dealt. In Search OF concentrates on how to schedule your trip and how to find winning games. The Video teaches you how to set up your home practice. The NBJ audio teaches you the finer points of NBJ. The WCB tapes are the finest tapes in BJ. Here I take you on an actual casino Day trip and explain how I mentally prepare myself, how I find the right game and how I play that game. Altogether, I cover every espect of the game. It is much like getting a college degree in Blackjack.

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