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Quite random but still good odds for bank


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Yesterday I tried reading cards in the casino, and sometimes it worked but mostly it didn´t. During the playing I had the idea that the cards were quite random, but I almost couldnt believe that for a friday night.

The high/low runnings were too different to rely on and arguing other players are very annoying as well (`why do you hit with a 12 vs bank 6`).

However, placing bets on 1st base after the last card dealt was an ace, worked out much better, with a 3 out of 5 win.

I had some difficulties with the hands 15 and 16 against a ten (up card) of the bank when high is running. I was third base and it was a no hole card game. I don´t know what gives me more advantage (or it maybe doesn´t matter), hit or stand. Only the cards 2 till 6 are valuable to me, but in this case a 2/3/4/5/6 would be a negative card for the bank (chance to bust, because highs are running). If I hit a high card I bust, but if the bank hits a high card he will win. So in my opinion it´s better to stand, but what are your points of view?

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Where were you playing at and how many decks?

Looks like you had enough predicabilty from the Aces ploy you made. After all, thats all you really need is and edge. Looks like you found it in that game. Realize that most people look for too much or read predicability into a game that doesn't exist. If you played close to even on the other areas and worked the first base with the Aces predictabilty then you played as well as anyone could.

If the cards become too predicable, they are too clumped and you know exactly why you lost!

K

You can tell the winners and honest players by how many times they admit they lost 
not by how many times they say they won.

Need Information Messenger

https://m.me/beatthecasinodotcom

司奇士

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It was a 6 deck game in the Netherlands.

There were some real readings possible, but they ran out before I could hit/stand.

And the ace predictability is just an extra and wasn´t (still isn´t) my main aim.

But what I truly don´t understand is your negative betting prog. I think it´s better to raise your bet when you are winning. Why should you raise when you´re losing?

pvdh.

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It was a 6 deck game in the Netherlands.

There were some real readings possible, but they ran out before I could hit/stand.

And the ace predictability is just an extra and wasn´t (still isn´t) my main aim.

But what I truly don´t understand is your negative betting prog. I think it´s better to raise your bet when you are winning. Why should you raise when you´re losing?

pvdh.

Hi pvdh. An excellent question and I can see that you are a serious, thinking player but alas, not an NBJ player. Although you would probably make a very good one.

I suspect you are not because last card Aces are usually not a good prognosticator of first card tens at first base. I'm glad it worked well in that game and IT DOES go along with our rule #1. " Let the game you are playing tell you what to do." But Aces are actually played low more than high and are only a good prognosticator of a first card 10 when they are running with 10s.

A final card 10 is much better. And since you can get "lone tens" in many games 2 or 3 tens ending the prior round is even better. However they mean little in a random game like yours happened to be. Third base is the best position in a random game because your cards are most like the dealers. When you get a low first card she usually does to. The same with highs.

Up as you win betting may be fine in craps but not in BJ. On its best day, basic strategy has only a 43% hands won rate. NBJ players get that up to 50-52% but that is still not good enough for up as you win betting. Why? Because in BJ there is no condition that can cause you to win hands in a row, including high counts. The dealer is just as likely to get tens in a surplus of tens as you are. Usually MORE likely. At third base, particularly in random games, you have a strong tendency to swap wins with the dealer. You win one, she wins one you win 2 she wins 2 and so forth. An NBJ player at third in a random game is very unlikey to lose 3 hands in a row but very often will win every other hand. WLWLWLLW. Therefore a 3 bet negative (up as you lose) prog is usually ideal. We usually work our way up to a 1,4,6 in that situation. Even when you finally do lose a 146 you can recover your loss in as little as 8 hands and often much less if you get a a good double or a BJ on a 4 or 6 bet. Sometimes you can go for hours W/O losing a 6 bet. I once went 14 hours and even then I didn't lose. Just got too hungry to play any more.

A better example was a game I played in the high stakes room of the Claridge early one morning. I used to like to get a game in before breakfast with new cards because new cards are the most random cards you'll see all day with a little "boxed card clumping" thrown in for good measure. I was playing $100, $400, $600. But I was never getting to the $600 so I dropped it and just played $100, $400 up as you lose. I was doing great head to head when a late night Craps player saw my huge chip piles and jumped in at first at about 8 oclock. Being a Craps player, he proceeded to bet $400, $800 up as you win. But we both continued to win every second hand like clockwork. So for a couple more hours (all thoughts of breakfast had vanished hours ago) I kept losing 1 winning 4 lose 1 win 4 while he kept winning 4, losing 8, winning 4 losing 8. After a couple hours of this he spoke for the first time and announced in a loud voice, "THIS IS THE WORST ***** BJ GAME I EVER PLAYED!" Barely able to see him over my chip piles I said in a weak voice, "You've got to be kidding me!" Yeah, I missed lunch too!

No, you'll never catch me betting up as you win in BJ. It's suicidal.

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