Jump to content

Online card counting


Recommended Posts

Hi guys,

The discussions around card counting and card clumping here at the forum are very interesting indeed. Do I get you guys right if I say that it is the presence in the deck (or shoe) of sequences of high cards as well as sequences of low cards that favors the casino? With only high cards the dealer cannot break, and with only low cards he cannot break either. Is that the central claim behind the card clumping theories? Interesting.

However, what I wanted to ask you guys is this: When playing blackjack online, where do card counters and cards clumpers end up? Even if randomness is a complex task, to say the least, as this white paper shows, that is not to say that the cards in online casinos will tend to clump up, is it? As far as I can see, any attempt to predict cards in an online casino must be foredoomed to failure, even in the case that randomness is not perfect. Do you agree?

And how do card counters look at the online game (if some have the courage to appear here)? Do you consider the game as being played with a single deck that is reshuffled after each hand? Or more than one deck? I have scanned through some of the online casino sites but they don’t seem to address this issue in any great detail.

Cheers,

David Kent at Gambling-Win.com

Link to comment
Share on other sites

David Kent said:

"..... Do I get you guys right if I say that it is the presence in the deck (or shoe) of sequences of high cards as well as sequences of low cards that favors the casino? With only high cards the dealer cannot break, and with only low cards he cannot break either. Is that the central claim behind the card clumping theories? Interesting...."

Ellis here: Very perceptive David. That IS a claim of fact upon which NBJ is based but it is not the central claim. But it does explain why dealers seldom achieve the 28% break rate upon which Basic Strategy depends. Now that you understand why the dealer break rate varies widely in the shoe game, it's a small jump to see why we track the dealer break rate and how we use that information to our profit. Dealer breaking is a function of clumping. Dealer break rate is inversely proportional to clumping or said in counting language: The greater the count spread the less the dealer breaks. So, how could we use that information? Suppose you have noted that the dealer is only breaking one round in ten rather than the mathematical one in four. Why would you ever stand with less than 17 in that game? Your odds of losing by standing stiff are 90%.

We also note whether the dealer is breaking mostly when her up card is high rather than the presumed low up card. This is often the case and is also a function of clumping. If the dealer is seldom or never breaking on a low up card, why would you follow basic strategy and bet that she will?

To answer your question regarding "central claim" as you put it. I would say that the main facet of NBJ is to bet on what IS happening in the game you are playing rather than betting on what is supposed to happen in a perfect world. NBJ is real world Blackjack as opposed to the wishful thinking world of the basic strategist.

NBJ notes with clarity that the object of the game of BJ is to bet high when the count is going down (when you have the advantage) and to bet low when the count is going up (when the dealer has the advantage). Also, to favor hitting in a down count (where the dealer seldom breaks) and to favor standing in an up count (where most dealer breaking occurs).

Strangely, that is also the objective for card counters. That is exactly what they are trying to do by waiting for some arbitrary high count to make their high bets. But what if the count keeps going up?

We know from thousands of casino games that you will be far more successful achieving your objective IF you fully recognize what your objective is as opposed to the counter who has the very same objective but does not know what his objective is.

For instance: Suppose you have noted in the game you are playing right now that there are seldom more than two up count rounds in a row and never more than three. Shuffles won't change that. Sure, we will bet high when we see high cards begin to fall but we will also bet high after two up count rounds. That way, we coincide our high bets with down counts far more often and far more successfully than counters do and by baseing our hit or stand decisions on that same information, we achieve a much higher hands won rate than the counter or basic strategist. The best counters and basic strategists can hope for on a very good day is a 43% hands won rate. From 43%, the more the cards are clumped, the less their hands won rate will be. NBJ players, or clumpers as you call them, condider 43% a very bad day. We are accustomed to a 50-52% hands won rate. It's a hell of a lot easier to win that way.

Example: Suppose you are a counter and the shoe starts with a down count. Half of all shoes do. Suppose the count steadily descends to -20. Religiously following counting theory you will just sit there making no bets, if allowed, or low bets. You watch the best part of the shoe go by. Why? Because you don't recognize the objective of BJ. The clumper, on the other hand, who's objective is to match his high bets to down counts will have a great shoe. He will already have the shoe won before the counter starts betting, if ever. Remember, half of all shoes start with a down count. That's just one example of many, many, more why clumpers fare better..

BTW, in your first question, you use the term "clumping theories". Clumping is not a theory. It is a fact of life. Clumping and count range are exactly the same thing. Count range is simply the numerical disparity from the highest +1-1 count to the lowest. (subtract your lowest -count from your highest +count). The greater the count range, the greater the clumping. Clumping creates the count that counters use, they just don't realize that fact. But betting high at some arbitrary high count in the hopes of hitting a down count round, now that is a pure theory.

Those are just a couple of the facets of NBJ. Stick around and you will learn a whole lot more.

As for your other question: "However, what I wanted to ask you guys is this: When playing blackjack online, where do card counters and cards clumpers end up? Even if randomness is a complex task, to say the least, as this white paper shows, that is not to say that the cards in online casinos will tend to clump up, is it? As far as I can see, any attempt to predict cards in an online casino must be foredoomed to failure, even in the case that randomness is not perfect. Do you agree?"

Yes, but not for the reasons you mention. You go on to ask: "And how do card counters look at the online game (if some have the courage to appear here)? Do you consider the game as being played with a single deck that is reshuffled after each hand? Or more than one deck? I have scanned through some of the online casino sites but they don’t seem to address this issue in any great detail."

And that alone should tell you something. First, "courage" has nothing to do with it. It has to do with "smarts". Look David, real casinos cheat in BJ on a regular basis. We have caught them red handed literally hundreds of times. I devote a whole chapter to cheating in the NBJ manual. And, I'm talking main line casinos not just back alley casinos. Now, if a real casino cheats right under your nose, in spite of the casino control commission and in spite of the embarassment of getting caught occassionally, what do you think off shore on line casinos do??? And who would you complain to? If real casinos cheat on a regular basis in spite of the obvious consequences, what do you think on line casinos will do where cheating is a whole lot easier and consequences a whole lot less? If you MUST play on line my best advice is to take up Poker. There is no incentive for an on line casino to cheat at Poker where the game is between the players and the casino merely gets paid to deal. There is every incentive for on line casinos to cheat in any game between the players and the casino. Sorry, but that's life in the real world.

Ellis

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wrote: "NBJ notes with clarity that the object of the game of BJ is to bet high when the count is going down (when you have the advantage) and to bet low when the count is going up (when the dealer has the advantage). Also, to favor hitting in a down count (where the dealer seldom breaks) and to favor standing in an up count (where most dealer breaking occurs)."

Sorry, I said that last part backwards. It should read as follows:

NBJ notes with clarity that the object of the game of BJ is to bet high when the count is going down (when you have the advantage) and to bet low when the count is going up (when the dealer has the advantage). Also, to favor hitting in an up count (where the dealer seldom breaks) and to favor standing in a down count (where most dealer breaking occurs).

Now it's right.

Ellis

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest CarlosM

Before Ellis, there was blackjack, Now, Ellis is the final word in blackjack. Ellis, very good post as always but, that was probably your best post! I don't know what any of us would have done without you. I'm glad I had the opportunity of learning everything you know about blackjack. Thank God for NBJ. Whith NBJ, playing full time pro for a very good living is real.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

Well since the thread said online cardcounting I would put in my 2 cents. I have tried online and I can tell you without a doubt that Counting online doesn't yield an advantage. It seems everyonce in a while when you have a key hand or reasonable size bet you lose.

You can tell the winners and honest players by how many times they admit they lost 
not by how many times they say they won.

Need Information Messenger

https://m.me/beatthecasinodotcom

司奇士

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Because the online casinos shuffle after every hand, counting can't achieve any advantage. (I think that, at one point, there was an online casino that dealt from a shoe and, inexplicably, didn't shuffle after every hand. I'm not sure about that. If any counter knows about an online casino currently doing that, he or she is keeping quiet about it, which is certainly what I'd do.)

For players content with a small hourly win rate, however, online casinos can be profitable. The strategy is bonus hustling, also called "bonus abuse" by the casinos and "bonus whoring" by some players. This is another area I haven't gotten into personally. It exploits the bonuses that online casinos offer to attract new players. The approach is to sign up at a new casino, play the minimum to qualify for the bonus, and then move on. Some players use friends' names or fake names to go back and hit the same casino multiple times as a different "new" player each time.

The online casinos are aware of the scam. In response, they've reduced their bonuses and toughened the qualification requirements. On occasion, they stall on paying the players or stiff them entirely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not to mention the mac id of the network device that connects your computer to the internet is unique for every ones cable modem or network interface card.

You can tell the winners and honest players by how many times they admit they lost 
not by how many times they say they won.

Need Information Messenger

https://m.me/beatthecasinodotcom

司奇士

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 11 months later...

hatign, I'm not sure what you are referring to. Your post came out under on line card counting but it sounds like you are referring to major land based casinos. Could you quote or mention the post you mean to be replying to and clarify your statement. Thanks

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 months later...

Well perhaps I should be more explanitive. It is the casino manager's job to present an unbeatable game. He knows that the more players at the table, the more the cards clump and the more the cards clump the less the dealer breaks and the less the dealer breaks the greater the casino take which is the single measurement of his job performance.

Casino managers don't have to physically manipulate cards. All they have to do is keep the tables crowded. The casino controlled rules of the game do the rest. The most important rule from a clumping standpoint is picking up the break cards first. That is the instrument of clumping. That process separates the mostly low break cards from the mostly high non break cards. The casino mgr then controls the shuffle types used. The major assignment to shuffle machine designers is the same, to maintain clumping.

Basic strategy also helps. It eventually creats a cycle bias that favors the dealer. Did you ever notice that dealers consistently get better cards than players? The longer the cards are played and the more players at the table the more the cards favor the dealer. There is one easy way to prove this to yourself. Go to any main line casino on a Saturday night when the dealer bias is at max. Count dealer Ten ups. Obviously she should get 4 out of 13 ten ups. Nope. Count them! you'll find that she gets closer to 6 out of 13 in 6 deck and 8 out of 13 in 8 deck. Think about it. This totally changes the real odds of the game in the dealers favor. That's only part of the effects of the cycle bias. You could say that basic strategy kills basic strategy! Next, count highs following highs and lows following lows out of the shoe. Given neutrals, it should be considerably less than 50%. Nope. You will find it higher!. That's clumping! It completely destroys the mathematical 28% dealer break rate and the odds of the basic strategist. Now, you're getting an idea of the real odds of the game and why the casino take rate is over 15% rather than the mathematical 0.5%. If casinos had to accept 0.5%, there would be no casinos.

Then, on top of that, is the many ways casinos cheat. Like the Bahama hole card trick. That's where the dealer glimpses her two cards and turns the higher card up rather than the first card. This changes the odds 17% in favor of the dealer. But like you say no legitimate casino..... We caught them at Caesar's, Las Vegas, red handed.

Once you complete those two experiments you'll know what we knew 20 years ago. Before you can learn to beat them you must know what you are up against. We call this casino orchestration. NBJ uses their own orchestration to beat them. If cards are not random, they are what??? Think about it. Yep, they are predictable. If they are predictable............

I'll enlighten you with one simple trick we use, that, alone, will improve your game considerably. Every book you ever read tells you not to insure, right? Watch the card that falls right before the dealer's hole card. When its a ten (4 out of 13) INSURE. Tens follow tens more than they mathematically should! On avg you will be right 50 - 55% of the time. It pays 2 to 1. Do the math. Now there is a worthwhile gift. Say thank you Uncle Ellis. There are hundreds more like that in the NBJ manual. It's an easy game WHEN you truly know what you are doing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

Terms of Use