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System 40 Advanced Manual


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System 40 Advanced Manual - Jan. 2011

Important: Please do not post on this manual. The S40A Q & A thread is provided for that purpose.

Overview:

System 40 Advanced or S40A is the strategic application of four systems, applying the best system to the shoe at hand The four systems are:

S40

F2,3

OTB4L

RD1

as determined by the OR and SAP counts and the likes and dislikes of each system. The idea is to play the system that would have won the most hands in the shoe thus far.

S40A combines the best of all worlds:

S40 is the best Chop system in the world but also handles Streak.

F2.3 is the best Streak system in the world but also devastates many choppy shoe types. It also devastates strong sided shoes that strongly favor one side or the other.

OTB4L is the best Neutral system in the world. By "Neutral" I'm taking about "runless" shoes wherein the OR count is stagnant often hovering 0 or a small + or - number.

RD1 is the best system in the world for the runs following runs shoe type esp. straight runs but also including ZZ runs of 4 or more counted correctly. Such shoes also manifest a shortage of single 1's, less than one every 9 plays - the less the better.

The key to winning the most hands possible with the S40A approach is to FIRST, select the most biased table you can find and SECOND, select the best system for the table/ shoe at hand. And THIRD, select the most appropriate betting strategy according to the strength of the bias of the shoe at hand.

NEVER decide what system you are going to play or what betting strategy you will deploy BEFORE you get to the casino. EVERY table has a best system and a most appropriate betting strategy but some more so than others.

OUR best players will also have taken note if the card prep used is favoring any of our 4 systems. By card prep, I'm referring to the procedure the casino uses to prepare the new boxed order cards before opening each table. I'm not referring to the ordinary shuffle between shoes. Frequently a huge advantage can be yours by playing new cards. I'm referring to the first 3 or 4 shoes after a biased card prep.

Our best players will also note if the blue shoe and the red shoe are behaving the same or differently. (Always note the shoe color at the top of your card. Also the table number.) Sometimes we forget in the heat of battle. After lunch or whatever you might find yourself saying: "Now which table was I playing and which shoe color?" Not good!

Always take your scorecards with you. We don't want them falling into casino hands and we want them available for study during breaks and regrouping.

Chapter One will be System Selection, our MOST important endeavor and Event Frequencies.

Chapter Two will be System Selection by Shoe Type.

Chapter Three is System Rules.

Chapter Four is Betting Strategy Selection.

Chapter Five is Money Management.

Chapter Six is Sample Games.

From there we can add whatever chapters you deem important. For instance, you might want a Chapter devoted to tote board reading.

Let's get started!

Chapter One

System Selection by System Likes and Dislikes:

Importance: System Selection is the single most important factor separating winners from losers. There is NO single system or Holy Grail that beats all shoes all the time and there never will be. That is the mistake that all other Baccarat sites make. They develop some purely mechanical system and keep adding higher and higher bets to outlast any contrary shoe section. Eventually you will ALWAYS hit a contrary shoe section that outlasts your bankroll.

This is simple arithmetic. ANY and all mechanical systems will lose bets in a row in the following purely mathematical frequencies:

Lose 4 bets in a row: once every 32 plays

Lose 5 bets in a row: once every 64 plays

Lose 6 bets in a row: once every 128 plays

Lose 7 bets in a row: once every 3.5 shoes

Lose 8 bets in a row: once every 7 shoes

Lose 9 bets in a row: once every 14 shoes

lose 10 bets in a row: once every 28 shoes

And so forth

Worse, when you encounter this shoe from hell, regardless of the progression used, it will wipe out all of your winnings to date. You are left holding the bag for all commissions to date combined. Half the time this shoe from hell will come sooner than avg. and you will lose even more. And the scammer who sold you the system will be long gone. Sorry, but it is a simple mathematical fact that many of you can already vouch for. That is why you are here.

There is one way and one way only to get around this uncaring purely mathematical fact. Play the system the shoe is calling for. That and that alone changes the odds in your favor - greatly in your favor. That is why System Selection is the single endeavor separating winners from losers. 0.1% of all players know and understand this. That is why total players consist of 0.1% winners and 99.9% losers. Sorry, but the first thing you need to know to beat this game is exactly what you are up against. But, can the game be beat. Absolutely!

BTW, only 0.1% of instructors know this perhaps making me the only one.

The object of S40A is to FIRST give you the best four systems to select from. Then show you how to select the BEST of the four for the shoe at hand. THEN we will show you how to select the betting strategy most appropriate for the shoe at hand and finally how to protect your winnings with the cleverest of money management.

Sure, you could always be looking back at the shoe thus far and play all 4 systems and select the one that won the most hands. THAT would usually work just fine. But you simply don't have that much time in the heat of battle. You need short cuts. A way to QUICKLY select the right system and just as important, a way to avoid the worst system.

Technically, by following this logic, you could win every shoe. But in the real world, I'll settle for 90% as long as my losers avg less than my winners. In plainer words I want my losing shoe avg - score to be less than my winning shoe avg + score. This way my break even number is a 50% shoe win rate. But we are going to strive for and hit a 90% win rate. I expect some of you sharpies to do even better but I'll settle for 90%. I know for a fact, with 30 years of experience that CAN be accomplished. It takes knowledge and deployment of ALL the tricks of the trade. What's more, I'm living proof that it can be done W/O betting more than 5 units. And I'm not the only living proof. Some of you are already there. So, with that in mind lets take a look at what each of our four systems like AND dislike.

First,

EVENTS:

What are events? Events are 1 in a rows, 2 in a rows, 3 in a rows and so forth. There is an avg. of 36 events per 72 play shoe not counting ties. Half of all events are 1 in a rows and half are 2 or mores called "2+s. On Avg. not counting ties, each shoe contains

18.00 1's: 1/2 of events are 1's - one 1 every 4 plays

9.000 2s: 1/4 of events are 2's - one 2 every 8 plays

4.500 3s: 1/8 of events are 3s - one 3 every 16 plays

2.250 4s: 1/16 of events are 4s - one every 32 plays

1.125 5s: 1/32 of events are 5s - one every 64 plays

1.125 6+s: 1/32 of events are 6 or mores

36.000 Total events per shoe not counting ties

IMPORTANT: Recognize that all the events in a shoe will seldom hit their normal frequency. BUT, when one event(s) is high in occurrence another event(s) MUST be low in occurrence to make up for it. We CAN'T have all events high or all events low. So, except the extremely rare occasions when all events are precisely tied we ALWAYS have an LC (least common) and an MC (most common) event. That is how S40 obtains its mathematical advantage. We bet ON the side of the least common event when it appears and opposite the side of the most common event when it appears. So the lower the LC and the higher the MC the more hands S40 will win - almost always more than 50%. It is really quite ingenious, don't you think? We either win the shoe or we come darn close but we NEVER suffer catastrophic losses because we are always betting WITH the main biases of the shoe and we are never found betting AGAINST these two main biases. Who knows this besides US? NOBODY! Not even the casinos.

Our objective is to beat all events but one MUST be "culprit". We must lose to one event in order to beat the rest but we can pick which one. We want to lose to the event that is occurring least in the shoe at hand relative to its normal occurrence. Identifying that event is the job of our SAP chart. Chapter Two will cover the normal frequencies of events.

For instance, let's say 3s are LC and 4s are MC in the shoe at hand. We would bet that 3s go to 4 and 4s stay 4 because THAT is what is happening the MOST in the shoe at hand and our object is to win MOST of the hands. Get it?

Fortunately the OR count alone can qualify a shoe for S40 or disqualify it.

S40 Likes:

Sine S40 bets mostly opposites, it likes shoes that are mostly opposites.

S40 likes chop

We want to see an ascending + OR count.

We can quantify that by saying we want to see opposites running at least 10% more than repeats.

Therefore we want to see our OR count column totals running at least +1, +2, +3, +4. That is not much but its enough. Anything closer to 0 than that we are probably better off with OTB4L.

The higher the + count the better. (Half of all shoes favor a + OR count)

(The OR count starts at play 2 and is +1 for an opposite and -1 for a repeat)

S40 likes 1s and 2s and beats them soundly. So it likes SAP readings of "high" 1's and/or 2s. (1's and 2's normally total 3/4 of all events)

It likes to see more than one 1 every 4 plays and more than one 2 every 8 plays.

(Fortunately the two tend to run together BUT NOT ALWAYS.)

S40 breaks even on 3s assuming a 123 prog (that's OK) a 124 prog would beat 3s but it also adds to risk - a definite no no. BUT, If 3's are LC we bet ON the 3 that it will go to 4 and when it does we beat 3s as well as 1's and 2s.

S40 likes and wins every play in a ZZ run

S40 likes the 1212s

S40 likes "low" 3s so that we can makes 3s culprit

or,

it likes low 4s so we can make 4s culprit

S40 likes consistent and clear LCs and MCs. HOWEVER, even when LCs and MCs are NOT clear and consistent S40 usually wins anyway or comes darn close.

S40 Playing Tip!

When playing S40 because you have an ascending plus OR count but you find your LC unreliable there is NOTHING to say you MUST bet OTR (on the run). You are probably better off to skip the bet.

Or, go back to 1 unit and if it loses, next time you go OTR bet 2 units and so forth. You may win less that way but you virtually always win. When S40 won 40 shoes in a row, THAT was the way we were playing it. Yes, you tend to win less units but you can afford larger units because your bets stay lower. We call that Basic S40.

Some of our most conservative members may want to always play it that way. Me, I go by what the traffic will bare. In a high + OR shoe with a strong LC I will make the next bet in turn when I go OTR. A little weaker and I'll repeat the last bet when going OTR. But in a contrary shoe I go back to 1 when going OTR and sometimes skip the OTR bet altogether esp. early in the shoe when I have little to go on. I feel it is my duty to be aggressive in a good shoe because there won't always be good shoes.

Important Note:

In the S40 manual, we talk about 2s culprit but recognize that S40 with 2s culprit is exactly the same as TB4L (Time before last). This is fine if you only know S40 but in S40A, F2 is a better streak system than the 400 year old TB4L. So if 2s are LC we would tend to select F2. Low 2s almost always spells a streaky shoe.

BTW, I see that a glossary of terms used would be a good idea. I'll start one but if there are any you would like to see covered just ask in the Q&A thread.

S40A Dislikes:

Streak (a - OR count)

A tied or weak LC (when 3s and 4s are tied for LC)

But remember, with a + OR count but a weak or tied LC situation, play basic S40. (Go back to 1 on your OTR bets and if it loses go to 2 on your next OTR bet and so forth.) Reduce your goal to +10.

F2,3 Likes:

F2, 3 is our primary streak system.

It bets mostly repeats so it likes shoes that are mostly repeats.

We want to see a descending - OR count

The more - the better

When our SAP chart reads 2s LC we play F2

When our SAP chart reads 3s LC, we play F3

Yet F2,3 likes ZZ runs

F2,3 loves sporadic 1's. It likes 212 and 313 runs

F2,3 dislikes:

F2 dislikes a + OR count except when it is caused by 212s or ZZ runs

F2 dislikes 2s but likes 3s

F3 dislikes 3s but likes 2s

F2 dislikes TT runs but F3 likes them

RD1 likes:

Runs following runs straight or long ZZ

RD1 likes a - OR count with 1's LC (quite common)

RD 1 likes runs, straight, ZZ and TT

RD1 Dislikes:

A + OR count

A - OR count high in 1s (quite uncommon)

RD1 dislikes Sporadic 1's but likes long ZZ runs

OTB4L Likes:

OTB4L loves runless shoes except it loves TT runs (terrible Two BB PP BB)

A stagnant OR count (an OR count that stays in low numbers mostly -3 to +3)

An OR count that frequently crosses 0

OTB4L loves TT, 212 and 313 runs

OTB4L loves 2s MC and likes 3s MC

OTB4L likes 1s LC and single 1's

OTB4L likes a tied SAP chart but prefers 1's LC and 2s or 3s MC It can also handle 4s MC by staying with opposites for 3 bets before going OTR

OTB4L Dislikes:

High OR counts in either direction

Long straight or ZZ runs

OTB4L playing tip:

Usually we are playing OTB4L with new cards in the morning or because the shoe color at hand has been exhibiting a weak OR count. The big question is WHEN do we go OTR??? Like S40 I usually start with 4s LC until the shoe proves otherwise. Therefore I'm going to go OTR after losing 2 bets, usually a 1 and a 2. But early in the shoe, when I have yet to confirm LC I make my first OTR bet 2 instead of 3. Win or lose I go right back to OTB4L. Later, when I have confirmed LC, I will bet the next bet called for OTR. Unless I have been seeing long straight or ZZ runs I only stay OTR for one bet. But usually if I've been seeing long runs, I won't select OTB4L in the first place. OTB4L, after all, is our runless shoe strategy.

REVIEW:

S40 likes chop, ZZs, TTs, 212s and esp high 1s and 2s

F2 likes streak, low 2s, 212s, Sporadic 1's, long straight and ZZ runs

RD1 likes streak with very low 1's, and runs following runs.

OTB4L likes low OR counts esp crossing 0 frequently, high 2s and 3s and single 1's and runless shoes except it likes TT runs

Chapter Two:

System Selection by Shoe Type:

Chapter Three:

The Concept of Winning:

Edit Note: I can see that I'm going to have to go back and rearrange the chapters to provide a cohesive flow of thought. I'll get to that later. But I decided to inject this chapter in now because while some of you demonstrate understanding of the winning concept, some of you don't.

" All shoes are multi-trend. "

You will never see a shoe that begins with a particular trend and stays with that same trend for the entire shoe, every play.

All streak shoes have some chop sections and all chop shoes have some streak sections. And all Neutral shoes have some chop AND some streak sections.

OUR job is to determine the most consistent overall trend (bias) of the shoe. At the end of the shoe EVERY shoe ended up with an OR count either plus, minus or dead even. There is no other possibility. Our job is to note whether a shoe is favoring plus, minus, or 0. In other words are we seeing mostly plus signs, mostly minus signs or does it keep jumping back and forth. All three of these basic shoe types can be beat by applying the right system. Sometimes it is obvious right from the start and sometimes it isn't.

For instance, let's take a shoe that begins with a 4 in a row. (1/16th of all shoes) We can already eliminate 40 and OTB4L as our starting system because neither likes 4s. We are strongly leaning toward F2,3 but we must eliminate RD1. So our next observation is: "was the 4 followed by a straight or ZZ run?" Usually not but if so, RD1 becomes our STARTING system. If not F2,3 becomes our starting system. Now we decide between F2 and F3 by noting what is appearing most on the weak side (the other side from where we are betting). We look at 2s vs 3s only because 1's and 4 or mores are good either way. If mostly 2s we go with F3. If mostly 3's we go with F2.

From that point I find myself staying with the same system I started with 90% of the time overall. But on some days and at some tables and at some times of day I find myself changing systems far more often than 90%. Does this mean the shoes are not biased. NO, it merely means the bias is less consistent. But if I find myself needing to change systems a third time, it's usually table departure time.

But shoe starts are not the only thing I'm looking at. I'm looking at card prep biases with new cards. I'm looking at table biases. I'm looking at shoe color biases. But if all that fails to present a main bias, I'm out of there. And I never got off of flat betting IF, in fact, I bet at all. I'll wait for new cards or maybe look over the BJ tables. Gambling is sick. You MUST have an edge. If not, and you play anyway, you are merely gambling. To be a pro, you must think like a pro, not like a gambler. We aren't there for the fun or the thrill. We are there to win. So, we ONLY play when we CAN win.

In BJ, biases are caused by play together with card prep and shuffle.

In Bac, biases are caused by card prep and shuffle together with play.

ALL cards are prepped and shuffled. ALL cards contain biases.

The casino has FAR more experience producing what they want shuffles to produce than factories do. But Casinos are teaching the factories fast just as they did shuffle machine manufacturers.

The early factory preshuffled cards were easy to beat. They were either consistently choppy or consistently streaky. We watched Bet Phoenix go through this same learning curve. They got much tougher to beat quickly didn't they.

We are seeing the same phenomenon with factory preshuffled cards. They are getting tougher to beat. Trends seem inconsistent.

But, we found that ADN does quite well against them. Does this mean the cards are not biased. No! It means the cards are biased toward ADN. What the hell does THAT mean. Well, think about it. ADN handles garbage OK but it thrives on long straight, ZZ and TT runs (BB PP BB PP). ADN beats long straight and ZZ runs W/O suspending. It beats long TT runs BY suspending. THAT is the bias it likes and that is the bias we face with today's preshuffled cards. How do we know? By the simple fact that ADN wins. NO other system will do well against such cards.

OTB4L hates long straight and ZZ runs.

40 hates straight runs

RD1 hates single 1's and ZZs

About the only thing ADN dislikes is single 2s.

Purely Mechanical systems break even long term when no regard is paid to shoe type.

All of our individual systems are almost purely mechanical.

OTB4L and 40 get a slight edge by letting the shoe decide when to go OTR (on the run) and when to get off.

F2,3 gets a slight edge by letting the shoe decide between F2 and F3.

RD1 is PURELY mechanical which is why we end up playing it the least.

It isn't these slight edges that make us win. What makes us win is letting the shoe tell us which system to play.

THAT is the Concept of Winning. Playing the right system for the shoe at hand. NO ONE ELSE does that because NO ONE ELSE appreciates the REAL Concept of Winning. THAT is why they lose. 99 out of 100.

So, OK I screwed up. I, at first, missed the fact that factory preshuffled cards like ADN. BUT, I invented ADN didn't I. And now the factories, with help from the casinos, have given ADN a purpose. So be it.

The Truth About Suspending:

Suspending when net betting is NOT an offensive move. It's a DEFENSIVE move. Whenever we Suspend we only have a 50% chance of coming out of the episode ahead. The bet we cut out had a 50% chance of winning. Sure, sometimes we get lucky and stay suspended for long periods. But we didn't Suspend to make money. We suspended to cut our losses. The cool thing about Suspending is it can only cause us to lose ONE bet. But it can cause us to win MANY bets. But Suspending is not really a make money proposition. It's a SAVE money proposition. Don't be overly enthusiastic about suspending. Don't always suspend after a set number of prog losses. Let the shoe tell you the optimum time to Suspend. Shoes are all-Knowing. We are not.

Chapter Three

How to secure an Advantage:

It’s 8 PM.

The Baccarat GAMBLER takes the first seat he sees or heads for the most robust crowd.

The Player is far more clever. He’s not there for the fun or the thrill. Those died out a long time ago. The Player is there to Get The Money. The Player knows he must first find an advantage and only play when he has the advantage.

The Player has already checked out the morning card prep. He already knows if this casino’s repetitive morning card prep produces a consistent shoe type and if so, which shoe type it is. If he had found what he was looking for he would have made his profits for the day hours ago. But now he must settle for second best.

If there is a loud table, The Player will check it out. He knows that a loud table usually means a streaky table and he knows how to play streak better than anyone in the casino. But he also knows it might be just a bunch of know nothing drunks out for a good time. How one can have a good time losing money eludes him.

The Player canvases the tables quickly. He usually sees everything he needs to see W/O breaking stride. He appears to be out for a stroll but The Player is taking it all in.

The Player first notes dealer expression and body language. He knows that when a dealer is “into†the game it’s a good game and likely a good table. A bored dealer is dealing a losing game.

He notes chips on the table. The more chips he sees the better the game is. He notes chips in the rack. The less there are the better the game is.

He notes players holding their chips in their hand. He knows these players are losing.

Finding what he’s looking for The Player will finally pause to study the tote board. He can size it up in seconds. He’s looking for extremes: extreme chop, extreme streak, extreme neutrality, or extreme strong side.

Finding the tote board he’s looking for he overlays the tote board with his systems in his mind. In seconds he knows exactly what system to play and exactly how to play it. The Player will be right 90% of the time.

But is this just a good table or is it the best table in the casino. The Player will only settle for the best table in the casino.

The Player’s interest is also peaked by extreme losing tables. These are often the best OTB4L tables. He will always check these tote boards because great OTB4L tables occur frequently.

The Player knows that ALL shoes are multi trend. But what is the strongest overall trend?

OK, the rest is easy but what we need to know is WHAT The Player is looking for when he examines the tote board. THAT is the subject of this chapter.

Starting your Casino day:

First, it is best, if possible, to start your day soon after the first Bac tables open. The time varies from casino to casino but major casinos usually start opening their Bac tables early in the morning, especially on weekends.

IMPORTANT: It is important to develop your casino savvy. Start with knowing the approximate table opening schedule. It may differ from pit to pit. But if you don’t know simply ask a floor person. They will be happy to tell you or direct you to someone who can.

Why do you need to know: New card are usually the most consistent cards you will see all day. Consistency works in our favor. Generally, the more the cards are played the less consistent they get.

Likewise, for the same reason, it is good practice to be aware of tables that only deal new cards every shoe. These are usually the higher stakes Big Bac tables. Maybe you can’t afford them your first day but fortunes can change quickly in a casino.

IMPORTANT: It is best, by far, to start your day midshoe.

Why? Because you can use the tote board for free and put it to your advantage.

IMPORTANT: Do not jump in the first empty seat you see.

It may well be the worst game in the casino.

Study ALL the tote boards before selecting your table. At first glance you are looking for consistent extreme streak, extreme chop or extreme neutrality. These will be the easiest tables to beat as well as the easiest tables to select your system.

Let me put this in words you will understand:

Players who do not conduct a proper table search WILL LOSE unless they happen to get VERY lucky. The last thing you want to do in a casino is depend on luck. Ten minutes of searching can make all the difference in the world. Casinos aren’t lucky. They are very smart. All the odds are stacked against you. You need to reverse the odds in your favor. You need to be just as smart as they are. It’s NOT about beating any game you find. That will NEVER happen. It’s about finding the game you can beat best.

In my experience 50% of you will not heed my words. That 50% will lose. 50% of you WILL heed my words. THAT 50% will win. It’s as simple as that. Yet, some just can’t be bothered.

“My casino is different!â€

Guess how many thousands of times I’ve heard that statement.

“My casino uses factory preshuffled cards.â€

Big whip! Do you think a factory can shuffle cards better than a casino?

Look, they said the same thing about Gold Coast, Vegas. They use factory preshuffled cards!

I walked in and spotted a super chop table inside of 2 minutes. All the players had left mid shoe because they had no idea how to beat super chop. Four of our members sat down with me while 12 of you watched. We started right in on the next hand playing green. We won 85% of the hands and paid for the whole trip including airfare in the first half hour. So much for my casino is different and factory preshuffled cards. We picked the right table. That never would have happened if we sat to the first table we saw like all the other players do. THAT is why 99% of them lose. And that is why 50% of us lose. Well that and the fact that most of them have no idea of how to play either. OK, with that said, let’s see how tote boards can make us winners. Just remember, Don’t put all your faith in your playing ability. Put your faith in your game finding ability. That way your playing skills will pay off. There ARE tables that nobody can beat, including me.

I was going to draw you up basically two charts: A +OR count chart with all the event counts and a - OR chart with all the event counts. But I realized that is more information than you need and mostly useless to boot.

Selecting the right system by reading the tote board is pretty darn cut and dry so let’s do that first. But we also use the tote board to tell us how to best play the system we selected . That’s a little bit more involved so we will do that second.

But first we need a way to practice because if you can’t glance at a tote board and tell if its choppy, streaky or neutral all is lost.

How to practice tote board reading:

First, picture the vertical way we arrange our score card. A vertical tote board is nothing more than our score card up-side-down. Now think about this: what you are interested in is Opposites vs. Repeats. They look exactly the same up-side-down as right-side-up.

The horizontal tote boards are even easier to read once you’ve studied briefly. Horizontal entries are opposites (the whole top row) and vertical entries are repeats. Are there more entries on the top row (Opposites) or the lower rows combined? (Repeats)

Therefore, if you can look at one of our completed score cards and tell if its streaky, choppy or neutral, you can do the exact same thing with a tote board.

So take a pile of completed games and guess. Is that shoe choppy streaky or neutral? Then do a ten second OR count to check your guessing accuracy. Now practice this until you can get it close every time. Until you perfect this skill you will have to do OR counts on tote boards. You don’t want to be condemned to doing that forever. I want you to develop this skill until you can glance at a tote board an isle away and know for sure if its choppy, streaky or neutral.

I learned to count cards as fast as anyone alive. How? Simple! I kept a deck of cards in the john. Lots of time to practice W/O using up your valuable time. Hint: Keep a pile of score cards in the john. Just don’t get confused! Hey, you want to be a pro, right? Practice the way pros practice.

O.K. Basically today about a third of all shoes are choppy, a third streaky and a third neutral. In years gone by, nearly all shoes were either choppy or streaky. But casinos do best with neutral shoes so many card preps and shuffles are designed today to produce neutral shoes. It’s about 1/3,1/3,1/3 overall but this 1/3 rule can be way off on a given day or a given time of day. Morning or new cards TEND to favor neutral or chop while late cards tend to favor streak. But don’t take this as an iron clad rule. Casinos can change this instantly when they are losing and definitely will. If all the players are winning expect the game to change radically. Just remember, it takes them two shoes to implement a change but change it will. That is their job. Watch for this and anticipate it. BTW, I realize I may be being somewhat repetitive BUT this is the important stuff and bears repeating.

CHOPPY SHOES / TABLES:

We are going to play S40. S40 is our only chop system and the only chop system we need. S40 can’t beat all shoes but it beats virtually ALL choppy shoes.

Therefore we need a clear idea of what we mean by “choppy“.

First, we are seeing more Opposites than Repeats.

Our OR count might take a couple dips into minus but the overall trend is upward.

The Tote board is showing high ones and usually high twos as well.

We are usually seeing ZZ runs and / or 212 runs.

B and P are usually running neck and neck.

Remember, normal 1’s are 1 every 4 plays.

Normal 2’s one every 8 plays.

Normal 3s one every 16 plays

We are seeing few 4 or mores (4+s) - one or less per 20 play

col. Normal 4+s is one every 16 plays.

OK the tote board has told us the shoe is choppy and is therefore telling us to play S40. But it can also tell us HOW to play system 40. Do we go OTR after 2 losing opposite bets or 3? Ie., Do we go OTR after a 3 in a row or after a 4 in a row. OR, not at all?

First lets look at the OTR 3 vs. OTR 4 decision. Yes, you can use a SAP chart but no, you don’t have to. We want to know what and how to play BEFORE we play not after it’s too late. Use the tote board. All you need do is note which there are more of 3’s or 4+s.

If 3s are high you DON’T want to be found betting a 3 will go to 4. Bet the 3 will stay 3 by going to 3 losing Opposite bets before you consider OTR. In other words if 3’s are high make your PL (prog length) 3 before going OTR. If 4+s are high make your PL 2.

Now, there is nothing to say you MUST go OTR. In a super chop shoe why bet on runs if there are no runs or very few. What you do is after 3 losing bets STOP betting altogether and wait for the run to end. In a shoe full of opposites you are best off to wait and make your high bet on opposites because that is what is winning.

So, you see, the tote board not only tells you what system to play, it also tells you how best to play it. Perhaps you can now see the advantage of starting mid shoe. Let the tote board do the work and take the risks.

OK, I’ll post what I’ve got to give you some reading material and start in again tomorrow.

Edited by Guest
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  • 2 months later...

Chapter One

System Selection:

Importance: System Selection is the single most important factor separating winners from losers. There is NO single system or Holy Grail that beats all shoes all the time and there never will be. That is the mistake that all other Baccarat sites make. They develop some purely mechanical system and keep adding higher and higher bets to outlast any contrary shoe section. Eventually you will ALWAYS hit a contrary shoe section that outlasts your bankroll.

This is simple arithmetic. ANY and all mechanical systems will lose bets in a row in the following purely mathematical frequencies:

Lose 4 bets in a row: once every 32 plays

Lose 5 bets in a row: once every 64 plays

Lose 6 bets in a row: once every 128 plays

Lose 7 bets in a row: once every 3.5 shoes

Lose 8 bets in a row: once every 7 shoes

Lose 9 bets in a row: once every 14 shoes

lose 10 bets in a row: once every 28 shoes

And so forth

Worse, when you encounter this shoe from hell, regardless of the progression used, it will wipe out all of your winnings to date. You are left holding the bag for all commissions to date combined. Half the time this shoe from hell will come sooner than avg. and you will lose even more. And the scammer who sold you the system will be long gone. Sorry, but it is a simple mathematical fact that many of you can already vouch for. That is why you are here.

There is one way and one way only to get around this uncaring purely mathematical fact. Play the system the shoe is calling for. That and that alone changes the odds in your favor - greatly in your favor. That is why System Selection is the single endeavor separating winners from losers. 0.1% of all players know and understand this. That is why total players consist of 0.1% winners and 99.9% losers. Sorry, but the first thing you need to know to beat this game is exactly what you are up against. But, can the game be beat. Absolutely!

BTW, only 0.1% of instructors know this perhaps making me the only one.

The object of S40A is to FIRST give you the best four systems to select from. Then show you how to select the BEST of the four for the shoe at hand. THEN we will show you how to select the betting strategy most appropriate for the shoe at hand and finally how to protect your winnings with the cleverest of money management.

Sure, you could always be looking back at the shoe thus far and play all 4 systems and select the one that won the most hands. THAT would usually work just fine. But you simply don't have that much time in the heat of battle. You need short cuts. A way to QUICKLY select the right system and just as important, a way to avoid the worst system.

Technically, by following this logic, you could win every shoe. But in the real world, I'll settle for 90% as long as my losers avg less than my winners. In plainer words I want my losing shoe avg - score to be less than my winning shoe avg + score. This way my break even number is a 50% shoe win rate. But we are going to strive for and hit a 90% win rate. I expect some of you sharpies to do even better but I'll settle for 90%. I know for a fact, with 30 years of experience that CAN be accomplished. It takes knowledge and deployment of ALL the tricks of the trade. What's more, I'm living proof that it can be done W/O betting more than 5 units. And I'm not the only living proof. Some of you are already there. So, with that in mind lets take a look at what each of our four systems like AND dislike.

First,

EVENTS:

What are events? Events are 1 in a rows, 2 in a rows, 3 in a rows and so forth. There is an avg. of 36 events per 72 play shoe not counting ties. Half of all events are 1 in a rows and half are 2 or mores called "2+s. On Avg. not counting ties, each shoe contains

18.00 1's: 1/2 of events are 1's - one 1 every 4 plays

9.000 2s: 1/4 of events are 2's - one 2 every 8 plays

4.500 3s: 1/8 of events are 3s - one 3 every 16 plays

2.250 4s: 1/16 of events are 4s - one every 32 plays

1.125 5s: 1/32 of events are 5s - one every 64 plays

1.125 6+s: 1/32 of events are 6 or mores

36.000 Total events per shoe not counting ties

IMPORTANT: Recognize that all the events in a shoe will seldom hit their normal frequency. BUT, when one event(s) is high in occurrence another event(s) MUST be low in occurrence to make up for it. We CAN'T have all events high or all events low. So, except the extremely rare occasions when all events are precisely tied we ALWAYS have an LC (least common) and an MC (most common) event. That is how S40 obtains its mathematical advantage. We bet ON the side of the least common event when it appears and opposite the side of the most common event when it appears. So the lower the LC and the higher the MC the more hands S40 will win - almost always more than 50%. It is really quite ingenious, don't you think? We either win the shoe or we come darn close but we NEVER suffer catastrophic losses because we are always betting WITH the main biases of the shoe and we are never found betting AGAINST these two main biases. Who knows this besides US? NOBODY! Not even the casinos.

Our objective is to beat all events but one MUST be "culprit". We must lose to one event in order to beat the rest but we can pick which one. We want to lose to the event that is occurring least in the shoe at hand relative to its normal occurrence. Identifying that event is the job of our SAP chart. Chapter Two will cover the normal frequencies of events.

For instance, let's say 3s are LC and 4s are MC in the shoe at hand. We would bet that 3s go to 4 and 4s stay 4 because THAT is what is happening the MOST in the shoe at hand and our object is to win MOST of the hands. Get it?

Fortunately the OR count alone can qualify a shoe for S40 or disqualify it.

S40 Likes:

S40 likes chop

We want to see an ascending + OR count.

We can quantify that by saying we want to see opposites running at least 10% more than repeats.

Therefore we want to see our OR count column totals running at least +1, +2, +3, +4. That is not much but its enough. Anything closer to 0 than that we are probably better off with OTB4L.

The higher the + count the better. (Half of all shoes favor a + OR count)

(The OR count starts at play 2 and is +1 for an opposite and -1 for a repeat)

S40 likes 1s and 2s and beats them soundly. So it likes SAP readings of "high" 1's and/or 2s. (1's and 2's normally total 3/4 of all events)

It likes to see more than one 1 every 4 plays and more than one 2 every 8 plays.

(Fortunately the two tend to run together BUT NOT ALWAYS.)

S40 breaks even on 3s assuming a 123 prog (that's OK) a 124 prog would beat 3s but it also adds to risk - a definite no no. BUT, If 3's are LC we bet ON the 3 that it will go to 4 and when it does we beat 3s as well as 1's and 2s.

S40 likes and wins every play in a ZZ run

S40 likes the 1212s

S40 likes "low" 3s so that we can makes 3s culprit

or,

it likes low 4s so we can make 4s culprit

S40 likes consistent and clear LCs and MCs. HOWEVER, even when LCs and MCs are NOT clear and consistent S40 usually wins anyway or comes darn close.

Tip!

When playing S40 because you have an ascending plus OR count but you find your LC unreliable there is NOTHING to say you MUST bet OTR (on the run). You are probably better off to skip the bet.

Or, go back to 1 unit and if it loses, next time you go OTR bet 2 units and so forth. You may win less that way but you virtually always win. When S40 won 40 shoes in a row, THAT was the way we were playing it. Yes, you tend to win less units but you can afford larger units because your bets stay lower. We call that Basic S40.

Some of our most conservative members may want to always play it that way. Me, I go by what the traffic will bare. In a high + OR shoe with a strong LC I will make the next bet in turn when I go OTR. A little weaker and I'll repeat the last bet when going OTR. But in a contrary shoe I go back to 1 when going OTR and sometimes skip the OTR bet altogether esp. early in the shoe when I have little to go on. I feel it is my duty to be aggressive in a good shoe because there won't always be good shoes.

Important Note:

In the S40 manual, we talk about 2s culprit but recognize that S40 with 2s culprit is exactly the same as TB4L (Time before last). This is fine if you only know S40 but in S40A, F2 is a better streak system than the 400 year old TB4L. So if 2s are LC we would tend to select F2. Low 2s almost always spells a streaky shoe.

BTW, I see that a glossary of terms used would be a good idea. I'll start one but if there are any you would like to see covered just ask in the Q&A thread.

Edited by ECD
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