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Hollywood Casino 1.30.2011 Keith 7 Ellis - Midi Bac

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Ellis here: I asked Keith to post my 3 shoes because I think I can make a good case for using OTB4L as our base system for S40A and also for playing the random situations our Singapore friends must play and all others who face similar situations. This particular table at Hollywood uses new cards every shoe and has no tote board. The card prep takes about a half hour and is very complete. Each deck is opened and shuffled. Then they are shuffled in two deck pairs and washed in 2 deck pairs. Then the real shuffling starts including stripping. I don't see how you could consider them anything but well dispersed random cards. You have no idea what to expect. This situation calls for a neutral system and OTB4L fills the bill nicely.

You'll see that I had a high hit rate on my first bets (winning bets in a row). Normally this calls for increasing the first bet to 2 or 3. However I was playing for two people and when doing this I always play with extreme conservation.....

Mostly I was using a 112 prog and occassionally a 123 and sometimes I flat bet at 111. I started the shoes flat betting until I could see the hit rates of first, second and third bets. I was noting the hit rates against both straight and ZZ runs separately and go ON each type of run after 1, 2, or 3 losing bets accordingly. ZZ runs you are not concerned with as OTB4L wins every bet once on a ZZ run. I usually only stayed on a run for 1 bet unless I was getting on the run early.

OTB4L likes pretty much everything except runs precisely the wrong length followed by runs. You usually only see these in extreme streak which would call for F2,3 anyway. I did suffer a couple of these but not many.

I see Keith posted some shoes from a mini bac table I also played OTB4L. But I would like to direct your attention to the 3 new cards shoes. My scores on these 3 were +20, +7, +10. I could have played the +10 shoe further but I was really getting way too tired.

I think the most important thing to note is if 1's are coming in singles or multiples.

I'll wait for your questions to go into more detail.

OK, Ellis here still on Tues. I seem to be snow bound here in PA by the winter storm of the century and my flight home cancelled along with 2000 others.

So, we went back yesterday and, of course, they had closed the midi bac table we had killed the night before. Told us they may never reopen it. But it was really the new cards I was after and they had new cards at the mini bac table. So, I stuck with OTB4L and won another 4 shoes making my total wins in a row 7. I suffered a -7 on the shoe before that playing old cards which spoiled a ten in a row win. The last shoe of the 7 wins was beginning to deteriorate from an OTB4L standpoint going to extreme streak. So I switched to F3 and saved the shoe and we quit for the trip. At least we THOUGHT we had quit. But now that I am snow bound...

I'll get Keith to post the last 4 shoes. He's at work now. Oh, BTW, Keith is fine. Just had one of those A fib things.

But back to my point: Yes, 40 is a good all round system but it is primarily a chop system. I think that OTB4L can be made to conform to a larger variety of shoes since it favors neither chop or streak but can conform to both. Hey, 7 wins in a row is no small feat. It's all a question of when to go on both straight and ZZ runs and when to get Off of them. TT runs it wins every bet and it has a big propensity for wins in a row in random shoes. See what you think.

Edited by ECD
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